Most of you appear to be missing the big picture, the #17
by Ivy Walls on May 30, 2008 1:07 AM CDT
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PrintWhat is it about the number 17 that is so significant? Well it is not Mike Fontenot who is the 22nd player on the 25-man roster, although Fonty does provide contribution for this winning team---it is 17 wins per month. Beating CO put the Cubs in position to win 17 games in a month. The significance if the Cubs prevail tomorrow or Saturday is that this will be the 5th month out of the 8 months Piniella and company have been in charge of field operations of the Cubs. 06/07, 07/07, 09/07, 04/08 and now they got their 16th win on May 29th.
Do the math; 17 x 6 = 102. 102 wins is an excellent season, a potential top of the league season.
Now I see many people discussing what amounts to be the inability to distinguish the forest from the trees. The most underrated person wearing a number on the Cubs is #41, Lou Piniella followed by his staff of Alan Trammel, Larry Rothschild, Mike Quade, Matt Sinatro, Gerald Perry, Ivan DeJesus and Lester Strode.
I have seen this club come together as a team and play winning baseball for Lou. He has created important roles for this team and he is still willing to make changes when it is necessary to give the Cubs the best chance to win. Today we saw the re-emergence of Neal Cotts as the Cubs second LHP out of the pen. He appears to be effective and confident. This begins to balance that part of the pen where Lou and staff will start finalizing roles for Eyre & Cotts going forward. He also told Ascanio that he needs to work on his breaking ball a bit more and he will be up. For whom, well the club will find a spot for an electric arm who is young.
Cubs won this game because they doing the things that are winning, getting men in scoring positions and then getting them home. Soto for his offensive numbers that are potential ROY and possible All Star considerations had two great AB's in the last two games, both were simple sacrifice flies that scored critical runs from 3B.
I am also seeing Soriano getting clutch hits driving in runs late in the game, yesterday a walk off single and today a nice shooting grounder up the middle. From the lead off spot Soriano has 31 RBI's, where with his 11HR's he has driven in 20 other runs with hits with his 874 OPS. Just to compare Ramirez has 38 RBI's (9 HR's) from the clean up spot meaning he has driven in other 29 runs and DLee has 37 RBI's (13 HR's) meaning he has driven 24 other runs from the 3rd spot. Soriano is emerging in front of you all as a run producer from the lead off spot where it will not be a huge transition when Lou will move him down in the order when an acquisition is made that will make a stronger front of the order.
My final piece is how Zambrano has emerged as a pitcher, is it simply maturity of turning 27 years old or is it coaching?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Zambrano's emergence
has been key this year. He has definitely matured as a pitcher. He understands that doesn’t always need to blow guys away. He has had good command this season for the most part (every pitcher has bad moments). Im really happy that he has been able to reduce his walk totals too.
He wears his emotions on his sleeve but thats what kind of person he is. It shows his passion for the game.
I’m extremely pleased with him so far this year.
DEROSA: How did it feel when you're sitting in Baton Rouge and it came across the ticker that Mark DeRosa had just signed to play second base with the Chicago Cubs.
THERIOT: In all honestly, when I saw it, I really felt like punching you right in the mouth and or breaking your leg.
+1
Z is finally the pitcher we all thought he could have been the last couple of years. His emotional nature is a big part of who he is, and in the past that’s gotten the better of him. I think he has learned to harness that energy.
Well worth the contract extension.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I couldn't find this stat on MLB.com...
But I remember hearing somewhere that Zambrano is second in the MLB in quality starts behind Brandon Webb.
"You know they're not going to lose 162 games." Harry Caray
by wrigleyrocker12 on May 30, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions
If you're going to talk down to us from your Ivy tower, Professor Walls
please back that up with unique insights. I don’t think anyone is missing the fact that playing .600 ball = successful season, or that the Cubs are “doing the things that are winning”.
"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome
I got your back!
But seriously – the “most of you missing the big picture” thing – just a tad condescending.
"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome
Name calling from the keyboard....courageous sarcasm
The issue was intended a general response to those who keep looking at the trees instead of the forest. The Cubs are playing winning baseball, not because their statistics are in place but their approach is in place from the command of the manager. It is the intangible difference to how and why a manager is consistently successful and why so many more are not.
People are saying that Fukudome is singularly responsible for the players going deep in the counts and improving their composite OBP, but I say that is only one piece. Piniella also probably knew he needed a commanding presence to promote this where he has also gotten DLee and Ramirez to follow suit. Winning is contagious because the behavior it breeds. Lou plays the game where the team benefits, no one else.
That is why Marmol pitches in the critical junctures of the game while Wood closes. They have their roles, Marmol establishes a closing momentum, and reduces the game by on inning. Yesterday Lou pulled DeRosa in a situational point and inserted a speedier Cedeno in the better attempt to get an insurance run. Johnson bunted and did that exceedingly well forcing a defensive miscue…..bases then Hoffpauir came through and the late-game rally ensued.
Back to unique insights….often things might not be unique, and altogether obvious but I recall Baker’s philosophy was to get 15 wins a month (equaling 90) but it appears that 17 is inherently better. The question is did you know this going in that only August ‘07 the Cubs have not won 17 games a month since the big broohaha at 3rd base that Piniella now gets to re-enact for a friggin TV commercial.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
You, sir, are
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
thank you, glad I have a role
nice art work…..
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Not my artwork,
but I’ll pass that along.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Ahem
If “Professor Walls” is namecalling, then I’m guilty. But I’m not the only one to comment on your approach. And I’ve seen your 17 wins per month analysis before. It’s interesting, kind of, but arbitrary – They could win over 17 games in just two out of six months and still go to the playoffs and be a WS contender. The other stuff about Lou and player roles and winning chemistry are absolutely not orginal observations.
"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome
Really how arbitrary is it really
The only month outside of this trend after the famous June 2nd tirade at 3B was August, so 5/6 is not arbitrary, it recognizes almost playing .600 ball consistently over 150 games over two seasons, once Lou took over the team with that defining moment.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Was Lou the only change?
I’m not saying Lou hasn’t done a great job but…
Soriano.
Lilly.
A brand new Kerry Wood.
Fukudome.
Soto.
Reed Johnson.
Lou got a pretty nice bump in the quality of players, too.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
Let me see....04/07 & 05/07
Cubs had Lilly, Soriano and Wood (albeit still hurt) on the roster and they played 9 games under .500.
Wood is not brand new, he has a different role and went out in the off season and prepared himself for it.
They have added DOME & Johnson and Soto came last year during a pennant drive and became the starter in that period. Last year Sori was hurt like this year early on as well. Cubs also had a SS who is now a starter on the Cards….a RF who has been released by the Tigers where he put him in CF and band- aided RF last year too.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Oh and BTW....
the lame apology for namecalling, be it imaginative is does not fly either….and group think about what other think don’t measure any validity for the mob rule is never a good standard….If you have issues or disagreements with what I post-—even if it is the unstated obvious—than stand on your own and don’t use personal epitaph’s for they add nothing but personal contempt.
Anyone can use name calling…..even middle schoolers who do it quite well, but it is not the measure of good discourse.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Good discourse usually requires forethought
Readable text is the offspring of forethought.
Half the time I can’t understand what you write. The other half I wish I didn’t understand what you wrote.
I think people take it as an attack when you seem condescending. If that’s not your intent, give the ol’ proofreed a try. You might come off a little better, you might edit some of your syntax errors, and we’ll get an understanding of what you’re really trying to say.
Otherwise, it just looks like you’re knee jerking.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
Um
I don’t think what I wrote qualifies as namecalling, so that wasn’t actually an apology. Yes, my first comment WAS sarcastic, but what do you expect? You started off by saying that most here do not see what apparently only you are capable of seeing. That’s putting yourself on a pedestal to start, distancing yourself from the audience you want to address.
"Is there anything he can't do?" ~Len Kasper, 4/5/08, on Kosuke Fukudome
In logic this is what we call
“post hoc ergo propter hoc:” (“After this, therefore, because of this”) There’s no reason to infer that Lou’s tirade had anything to do with the Cubs’ performance post-tirade. It likely has a lot more to do with improved performances by Wuertz, Eyre, and Howry, the emrgence of Carlos Marmol, timely hitting and some pretty sound starting pitching than anything else. It’s silly to argue otherwise.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with most of your points
I think Zambrano’s maturity is just that . . . all the coaching in the world won’t matter if someone doesn’t want to grow up.
Regarding Cotts, I don’t know if you watched last night, but he was anything BUT effective.
by Shanghai Badger on May 30, 2008 7:15 AM CDT reply actions
Not exactly a great situation to be thrown into.
I’d like to see him get another chance.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
I agree that he should get another chance
and it wasn’t horrid—but it wasn’t good, either
by Shanghai Badger on May 30, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
In defense
That was a spot for Wuertz, not a guy whose spent over a year in the minors retuning his stuff. I think Lou made a bad call bringing him in not that it matters now.
I actually thought Cotts pitched pretty well last nght.
He was throwing strikes and not giving the Rockies much to hit. That single by Taveras was more dumb luck than anything. It was a jam shot that he Taveras happened to lift over DLee’s head. It probably would have landed foul if Derrek hadn’t (understandably) leapt for it. Then he struck out Smith pretty handily. And the walk to Helton was helped along by some questionable umpire calls early in the count. I’d like to see Neil get a few more chances.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
I had totally missed and glossed over the fact
that winning a majority of the games a team plays = a successful season for that team. Thanks for enlightening me.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
102 wins?
That’s the same logic that people use to call the Pirates a bad team or the Cubs an overrated team (because of the Pirates).
You can’t pick and choose. The fact is, this still seems like a very streaky team. We’ll be buoyed if we can keep up the OBP and continue the solid pitching that’s happened during our hot streaks. Putting a defense on the field that doesn’t beat itself is always good for consistency, and that’s why I’d like Felix Pie to return to his rightful place, CF vs. RHP.
I agree, we’ll be fine. But your logic is a little flawed.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
I think the next road trip is key.
The Cubs have struggled on the road. Next road trip is against two teams the Cubs have handled well at home. They now have to show they can beat the same teams on the road.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Absouletly.
Earlier this week, I posted something about winning early, and how it’s nice to get momentum.
One of these weeks before the ASB, they’re going to have to prove to themselves that winning on the road is fun.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
Wow, can't spell this morning.
Absolutely.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
agreed.
2008: The year we put it all together.
by drewishdrewid on May 30, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions
not really...Cubs are the only team not to lose more than 2 in a row.
The Cubs are 10-13 on the road, they should be 11-12 (splitting their blown games in Pitts, or they could have been 12-11 taking both of the extra frame games),
Road is a small issue, they need to get back to .500 as a standard measure for a road record, while 23-8 is exceptional. But not losing more than 3 in a row 1/3 of the way into the season is a genuine compliment. Cubs would be good to take 2/3 of the remaining games with CO and go onto to the West Coast and win 4/7 and come home, they will then be 14-16 on the road.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
You're looking at the trees, now.
They may have limited their losing streaks, but I prefer to look at big heaps of games. They were 3-8 the end of April to beginning of May. They were losing two, winning one, losing two, winning one, losing two…
That’s not consistency.
Also, road is not a small issue, especially since the AL has a stranglehold on the ASG.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
Right about Soto
Had some awesome at-bats the last few nights. I’ve lost track of how many Cubs hitters over the last few years had me tearing my hair out after coming up with the bases loaded with less than 2 outs and not getting the job done. The guy’s a long drive hitting machine. You just know that one of these times he’s going to put the ball where no one will be able to catch it.
"I don't think anybody's paying attention to the Cubs." - Prince Fielder
Bummer...
I thought this post was going to be about Mark Grace. What a tease…
I haz show: http://hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on May 30, 2008 9:22 AM CDT reply actions
Yeah, I can't help but notice, Ivy Walls...
...that, lately, you never seem to miss a chance to take a shot at your fellow BCB participants. You might want to reconsider this approach, given the fact that your Fanposts tend to be a bit “text-heavy” to begin with.
And I’m not sure how many of us (if any of us) are missing the fact that, if the Cubs win 17 games a month, the team will guarantee itself an excellent season. If you’re implying that we’re not giving Lou and his staff enough credit, well, maybe we are, maybe we aren’t. It’s in the grand tradition of baseball discourse that we criticize/question moves by management (hi, Jim Edmonds!) - yes, even during the best of times. (And, so far at least, this season has been a GREAT time to be a Cubs fan.)
That aside, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find any rational, knowledgable Cubs fan who doesn’t appreciate what Lou Piniella and his staff have done for this team thus far.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.
Agreed.
2-3 years later and there’s still talk about how bad Dusty was.
Not gonna speak for the entirety of BCB, but Lou has been more help than harm, to put it mildly.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
Point taken, I guess I have just look at the world from many angles
The issue is not Ivy Tower grap, although having lived in WI for over a dozen years I became quite adapt at recognizing group inferiority complex calling others elitists or arrogant when everyone is consumed by looking at the trees and not the forest—-meaning big picture.
Edmonds’ move as you refer is a low risk chance shot. Pie had to go down for his and the teams sake to get better at the plate, that will not be an option until he is ingrained a new approach. I am not worried by that discussion, but I am somewhat bemused by saying who is the most underrated or overrated one-third into the season. Far too little sample size for that detailing. Cubs have the best record in the NL right now---why?
They are playing Lou-ball——meaning winning baseball. In that light it is the result of Piniella’s decisions and the approaches of his staff. They are winning despite a defensive liability at SS and CF, and a player in LF that plays as well as M-Ramirez. I am just trying to get some of you to look at the big picture.
As far as saying the Pirates are bad because of their record is absolutely true, winning or losing is the ultimate judge of how you approach the game situation by situation, with the talent you have to apply that approach. The Pirates are losing a greater amount of situations, especially against the Cubs so they lose more than they have won. The Cardinals are the opposite--why are they really that more talented than the Pirates--not much--same for the Astros--or the Brewers—they are just losing those situations more than the Cubs.
It is why Lou and La Russa are masters. Look at the other team playing well, the Braves….who is their manager-—-Bobby Cox. While Joe Torre another master has not yet got the Dodgers playing his way situationally yet. I will be glad to get past the Dodgers this next week after their long trip and before they start getting healthy, for they will find a way to win more than they lose—mark those words.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Have you ever thought of starting your own blog?
You are quite obviously a master wordsmith- quite the cunning linguist. And since the level of discussion here doesn’t meet your lofty standards (which is obvious, since you have to enlighten us unwashed masses as to the most basic baseball theories), maybe you could create a new, more intelligent, more highly developed discussion site. Just a thought.
"Cunning linguist."
Classis double entendre. Well done, sir.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07
by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
1/3 of the season=FAR too little of a sample size?
Really?
You say you look at the world from many angles. Doesn’t look like you appreciate any but your own.
Again, you’re starting a discussion based on a misperception. You think people here don’t like what Lou’s doing overall. I think we do.
Now, could we tinker here and there? Yes. For one, I think Pie should be the RHP option in CF. I think Cedeno should start at SS more than Theriot.
Will these changes affect the forest? No. These changes are probably worth 2-3 games this season.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
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