OT: Nate Silver of BP fame is a chili pepper

by SuperContext on May 30, 2008 12:44 PM CDT

Today, one of the hottest political bloggers and electoral math analysts, previously going only by the name "poblano," revealed himself to be none other than Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. For those of you who don't follow politics (or at least political blogs), "poblano" has made quite a name for himself this primary season with extremely accurate election predictions based on a regression model that takes into account polling results, previous voting patterns, and other factors. He has recently drawn the attention of main-stream media outlets (and the ire of pollsters like ARG who he has shown to be increasingly inaccurate), and apparently has some sort of deal in the works that will give him more exposure.

This just goes to show that the same mathematical skills and analysis useful in predicting outcomes on the baseball diamond can be put to good use in other contexts as well. As a fan of Baseball Prospectus, and a political junkie, I found Nate's "unmasking" earlier today to be exciting news.

P.S. Al, I know you like to shy away from political content on BCB, but since this has a baseball perspective and isn't really advocating any particular viewpoint (other than that baseball number-crunchers can make a splash in other contexts using similar skill sets), I didn't think you would mind. If I'm wrong, please feel free to take this down.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

Tweet Comment 14 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Wow.

That’s….pretty sweet.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on May 30, 2008 12:49 PM CDT reply actions

I don't think that his methods

take into account Obama’s intangibles. He has a hustle and grit that the numbers just don’t capture.

by Wreckard on May 30, 2008 12:51 PM CDT reply actions

Ditto

We all know that extensive and elaborate poll and demographic analysis is for a bunch of mothers-basement-dwelling geeks who don’t recognize how important “momentum” is to politics.

*Synth intro to "Jump"*

by SouthsideCub on May 30, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions

So are you saying that Obama is scrappy,

or is it that Obama runs a grinder campaign?

This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.

by HectorVillanueva on May 30, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Love your picture

Great minds…

*Synth intro to "Jump"*

by SouthsideCub on May 30, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions

well if we're talkin'

‘bout pictures…

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on May 31, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions

One of the problems I see

With his methods (and this holds true regardless of candidate really, though it could be more pronounced with Obama, since he is expected to bring out a lot of first-time voters) is that it relies heavily on past election results and patterns. Which is why, though his results have been generally accurate percent-wise, his attempts at predicting turn-out haven’t been particularly successful.

I still find it exciting that he is trying to add in some different analytical elements other than “lets pick which poll result we like best and go with that.”

by SuperContext on May 30, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Great

Now politics will be ruined by stats geeks no one likes!

by goldglove on May 30, 2008 1:17 PM CDT reply actions

My analysis...

Obama = Theriot – Scrappy, makes great speeches, but can’t hit a home run to knock Hillary out.

Hillary = A-Ram- Clutch hitter as she wins the big states like PA. and NY, and can hit the long ball by calling in Bill to help out.

McCain = Edmonds – He’s done

"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun

by Bump Bailey on May 30, 2008 1:20 PM CDT reply actions

haha

hilarious analogy

by Glacier on May 30, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Hillary=

Dave Kingman—Hits some titanic home runs, but is an incomplete ballplayer whose overall value to the team is suspect. And might possibly have a screw loose somewhere.

McCain=Dick Stewart without the stick.

Obama=Greg Maddux. Won’t overpower you, but he’s smooth and smart, knows the game, and will quietly put you away.

by cubmudgeon on May 30, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions