Baseball Prospectus' take on the presidential election

by 3744nsheffield on Jun 11, 2008 8:17 AM CDT Comment 29 comments

Turns out Nate Silver is a political stats junkie as well as well as a baseball one. He runs a site, fivethirtyeight.com, that analyzes polling data in the same way that BP analyzes baseball numbers. The goal is to predict who will win the presidential election, in much the same way it predicts player performances and season results. Which is spiffy enough (and no, this not a post about the election, so don't comment on that).

But what's even spiffier is that Will Caroll, who analyzes player medical histories at BP, did the same thing for John McCain on the fivethirtyeight site. I've been following baseball and politics for a long time, but this has to be a first. What gives out on a politician? Do the legs go first? Can they have Tommy John surgery for their brain? Where do they go for a rehab assignment?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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That's weird

But really cool at the same time….

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 11, 2008 8:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to leave this post for now.

As long as it doesn’t devolve into political discussion, it’ll stay. If it does, I’ll delete it without notice.

Thanks for understanding.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 11, 2008 8:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Isn't there some stat

linking the superbowl or world series winner to the presidential election (or vice versa)? Or am I losing my mind?

by TC Cubby on Jun 11, 2008 8:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think so. I have to look it up.

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 11, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Article from 04

http://americanhistory.about.com/od/elections/a/baseballpres.htm

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 11, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

I think I was actually thinking of the Washington football team theory (I don’t say the name)(a win for the team the week before means the incumbent party is staying in control)

by TC Cubby on Jun 11, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Usually...

their Integrity blows out due to special intrest pressure

I haz show: http://hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on Jun 11, 2008 9:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Rerun

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/5/30/542569/ot-nate-silver-of-bp-fame

by Wreckard on Jun 11, 2008 9:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

last

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 11, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

nope

I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on Jun 11, 2008 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, I was hoping the thread would die after Wreckard's "Rerun" post.

Foiled again.

Nanika Ga Okoru!

Oh, and remember, folks: Alfonso Soriano is NOT batting leadoff. He's batting first.

by dat cubfan daver on Jun 11, 2008 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

it’s entirely possible for them to have their wrist, elbow or shoulder strained, from all the handshaking. Their voices give out. And they’re constantly fighting colds that they get meeting so many different people.

"We expect to win. We go out to win. So we're just living up to our own expectations." Derrek Lee, 5/29/08

by drewishdrewid on Jun 11, 2008 10:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

holy crap, poblano is the guy from BP? MY WORLD IS UPSIDE DOWN.

by HereComesASpecialBoy on Jun 11, 2008 10:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that was basically my response, too

given that i’m a baseball fan and a huge politics nerd… worlds collided with that one.

by mrbubs on Jun 11, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How does the guy have the time, I wonder…

by HereComesASpecialBoy on Jun 11, 2008 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks Like Another Close One

Can Obama get victories in the south, plains, and Rocky Mountains? Can McCain win in the Great Lakes, northeast, and the west coast? We’ll see what happens in this epic battle between youth and experience. I know I don’t want a World Series between Obama’s White Sox and McCain’s Diamondbacks.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jun 11, 2008 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The dem race was between a Sox fan and a Cubs fan.

For some odd reason I think I remember McCain as being a Cubs fan. A lot of Arizonans are. It was back during the 00 election something about that. Maybe he has dual faniship?

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 11, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hillary and Yankees Cap

Okay, she’s a politician. She wanted to make a good impression in the Empire State. I still didn’t like her wearing a Yankees cap during her first US Senate run. We all know voting for or against someone based on their MLB affiliation is the logical thing to do. (Of course, I’m joking.) I can remember Ronald Reagan being with Harry in the booth. Of course, Hiillary was there, too, during Bill’s presidency.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jun 11, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting web site

Thanks for posting it. You wouldn’t believe how long it took me to figure out that 538 is the number of electoral college votes. I kept thinking to myself, “what happened in 538 A.D.? or is it B.C.? Maybe it’s 5:38 PM. Hmmmmm…”

by Rev Gunia on Jun 11, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting….....

I love politics and as a political junkie have enjoyed this year and can’t help but think my stepfather who is in heaven would be in heaven on earth with such an interesting election and the Cubs in first place and the Wolves having just won the Calder Cup and the Blackhawks on their way back.

I’ve seen just about everything. I’m waiting for the poll “How do left handed Cub fans who were born on Sundays who think Rex Grossman should be the Bears QB over Orton vote”

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 11, 2008 12:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

We will be voting for

....Obama. Thanks for asking. We Grossman-loving, lefty, Cub fans born on Sundays are often overlooked.

by coral on Jun 11, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep the politics out of this post, please, or it will be deleted without notice.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 11, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess coral was blinded by the glow...

and unable to read Al’s previous post to keep the politics out of it.
blind devotion will do that to a person.

wheatfield mike down here in god's country

by wheatfield mike on Jun 11, 2008 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

mike's comment sounds political

maybe you should delete the post Al—see my apology below first though

by coral on Jun 11, 2008 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you delete this thread Al...

we will most definitely notice.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 11, 2008 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

I thought the comment by cubstoseriesby100 was funny because I really am a left-handed, Cub’s fan who was ACTUALLY born on a Sunday….and I like Grossman…a little surreal.

by coral on Jun 11, 2008 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was funny.

However, you shouldn’t have injected your own political views about REAL politicians into it.

FWIW, Rex Grossman would lose just about any election he’d run in, in the state of Illinois.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 12, 2008 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not the Miss Illinois pageant

by coral on Jun 12, 2008 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did mean that in jest and I think coral’s response was in jest. I am also a left handed Cub fan who was born on Sunday who likes Grossman over Orton. They’ve done so many other special polls why not that one?

How about Cub fans who are right handed born on Tuesday and like Orton?

Or ones who are ambidextrous born on Thursday and think they should have kept Griese?

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 11, 2008 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs