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An Injection of Stats, Thoughts, and Musings

I was checking out some current stats on BP and found myself surprised by some of them, so I thought when I got a chance I would post some thoughts and open up some discussion, hopefully at least a little bit of it will be on different topics than the usual suspects. 

Hitters:

Ramirez .300/.412/.502  You have to like seeing A-ram with 40 BB: 41 K as of this writing(doesn't include tonight's rays game).  He's doing exactly what we want and need here, and is the most valuable Cub hitter by VORP, although this is basically because he has more PA's than Soto, it looks as if Soto is slightly more valuable (due to the obvious scarcity of hitting at C) on a per-PA basis.  Purely looking at hitting and not positional scarcity though, A-Ram is definitely the top hitter to date- that ridiculous .412 OBP is so awesome to see, I in fact wet myself seven times while typing this paragraph.

Soto .288/374/.527  Maybe we should trade for Jason Kendall? Yeah, Soto strikes out a lot, but as anyone who probably cares to read this post knows, strikeouts don't matter.   At least not when you kill the ball otherwise and take walks at a solid rate.  Geo, I love you.  That is really all that can be said.

DeRosa .299/.384/.464  I'm a little unclear as to if VORP includes DeRosa's at-bats as carrying the value of the defensive position he is playing while he takes them...but anyhow he is putting together a great season so far- note that he does seem to be outplaying the projections in regards to AVG which is probably due to slightly higher than usual luck, but even a slight dip in average has him as one of the more valued players on the team.  Yeah, he has sucked at 2B so far this year, but I feel like his statistically awful fielding numbers are due to a few terrible games in the first few weeks of the season....cwyers can maybe weigh in on if this is true or not,.  Anyway his versatility is nice as we all know, and as he is generally at least a decent 2B, he won't worry me too much there when Soriano is presumably back for good.  

Lee .289/.349/.511 Where are the walks Derrek?  Love to see the power back in full effect, but the OBP isn't what we expect from you...I know it is unlikely but if these numbers hold up, a lineup shuffle would actually be pretty helpful, something like Sori/Dome/A-Ram/Soto/Lee/(edmonds or dero) etc., rearrange as desired or if you're BlueMike trade Soriano for Barry Zito and call it a day with Theriot batting in all nine lineup slots.  But seriously, Lee is hitting more like an RBI guy than a true OBP+power star, so hopefully he can start walking more soon!

Soriano .283/.332/.547 Honestly, these stats are pretty much exactly what you would expect from him. 

Theriot .310/.388/.373 Surprisingly he is sitting at 14.3 runs over replacement, which of course now is time for the massive DISCLAIMER that this does not include defense....which the point has been hashed and rehashed to a sufficiently thorough level by now that, even though he grits and grinds and is white, his defense is absolutely ass-suckingly bad.  Probably significantly better than Derek Jeter, but it is still a big old turd.  All things considered though, he still is solidly over a replacement level player, probably right about at average or slightly below, and for his tiny salary.....you can't complain.  Also he brings a lot of humor to the team by diving towards balls he has no chance at getting and also getting thrown out on the basepaths a lot and having good interviews with Mark DeRosa.  All in all, I rate him a 4, which if you drink enough is plenty pretty to satisfy one's short-term sexual appetite.   I wouldn't want to marry a 4, though.

Dome .293/.401/.423 Surprised to find he translates currently as the 7th most valuable hitter by VORP!  I guess decent corner guys are really pretty easy to find.  However, adding in his D it's pretty clear he is WAY more valuable than the aforementioned SS wonderboy from LSU.  I expect a few more 2Bs to fall for him and he should be looking at a more reasonable SLG while hopefully keeping up the same walks.  right now i am thinking DAMN OUR TEAM IS DEEP.

Z Big Z is our 8th best hitter by VORP.  this is not a typo.  He also currently has better triple-slash stats than DLee.  He also apparently has one of the longest streaks ever without taking a walk.  This is only cool because he is a pitcher, so don't any positional Cubs get any ideas.  Unfortunately, the lame warning of "small sample size" makes me tell you that he probably won't finish the year with an ops of almost 900.  But hey, how about a 750-800, Z? Keep killing it.  And throwing strikes...

The next five in order of VORP are Edmonds, Cedeno, Hoffpauir, Reed, and Little Mikey Fontenot. Small sample sizes make these numbers pretty meaningless, but I will maybe go into some of what this means at a later (or just earlier tomorrow...cause its late) time.

Pitchers:

Z 5.96 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.63 HR9- the home run rate is pretty low, which if he can keep it up(tough, but it shouldn't go up by too much if it does, he's been around 0.9 recent years), the dip in K's from previous years doesn't cause warning at all...Z pitching like this is one of the best no doubt, he is currently the 4th ranked P by VORP. 

Demp 7.53 K/9 3.51 BB/9 0.80 HR9- Little high on the walks, but that's what you'd expect.  It looks like he is legitimately pitching better this year than any Cub starter has in the past few years....who'd have guessed that not only would Z step up from where he has been the past couple years, but RYAN DEMPSTER would top that level as well?  I like him (not just for the jokes) and think he would look great pitching a Game 3 in the playoffs...Game 2 I'd be less excited about but depending on how the trade market looks I could be convinced it is right. 

Lilly 8.79 K/9 3.28 BB/9 1.48 HR9 The HR rate is ridiculous.  Hopefully it will drop a bit, cause we should keep seeing him improve his results if it does....that 8.79 K/9 is great!  If he can keep that but drop his HRs to a more normal 1.3 per 9 innings, he is definitely a TOUGH #3 as well....just compare him to who other teams would have in such a spot.  I think he's going to keep his year going upward and end it with solid stats. 

Marquis 4.48 K/9 3.38 BB/9 0.73 HR9 Yeah, he can't K anyone and has fair control.  But he has yet to have a barrage of HRs unleashed against him, and until that occurs (it is inevitable, isn't it?), he should continue to post an ERA around where it sits right now at 4.24.  I don't hate him.  I wouldn't cuddle with him on a stormy night, but we could probably hang out without incident.

Gallagher 7.78 K/9 3.24 BB/9 0.86 HR9 No idea if he can keep up these raw numbers, but the minors seem to indicate he should at least be close to them.  If he keeps these numbers up....well let's just say please don't trade him, please don't trade him...well unless we get A-Rod or Hanley or something.  I also like how he is much less fat, it makes me feel better about his cholesterol AND chances with the ladies, which are two of the most important "deep sabermetric" stats only kept by those extremely into the field. 

That's all I have for now, if there is continued interest I plan on following this up with some discussion of our options for the trade market, which i am guessing no one here cares about judging by the history.....ha.  Also some talk about relievers, why a 12-man bullpen is unnecessary, why Mike Fontenot is unnecessary , and if things go well a detailed discussion of the ins and outs of arm-tats, featuring Hank White and Ronny Cedeno.  All this and more, on the next cycle of old-fashioned anabolic goodness, courtesy of Canseco's Roid Party.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

6 recs  |  Comment 14 comments

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+1

Nice Rundown.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jun 18, 2008 7:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

" "

That’s a ditto for ya

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope."

by californiachicagoan on Jun 18, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh and gave it a "rec" also

"We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope."

by californiachicagoan on Jun 18, 2008 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yay I made it to the Recommended section, I am like a proud father.

by Canseco's Roid Party on Jun 18, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts

Lee: his stats are at the bottom ebb of the normal baseball rhythm. I think he’ll end the year with an OBP over .385.

Aramis’ newfound OBP is awesome. It’s great to see more and more of the influences of the evil Dusty era stripped away.

I wonder what the Replacement Player average for a Utility Player would be, because I think DeRosa’s VORP would go even higher if it was possible to look at things that way.

Dome – I still think that by the end of this year, or the beginning of next year, Dome will be SLGing more doubles and rising up the VORP charts. The team is deep indeed.

by DGU on Jun 18, 2008 9:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts

I also am excited about ARams OBP. I think Lee’s will definitely jump up if not because he takes more walks, then because his BA will also climb. Theriot has also done a great job of taking walks with an OBP around .390. As for the pitchers, I think Zambrano could start giving up more homeruns as it heats up, but if he can keep his sinker down he should be fine. I’d like to see Lilly start throwing his fastball down in the zone to cut back on the hrs. He is more dominant when he pitches it up, but if he doesn’t throw it high enough then it becomes a sure homerun. I don’t see much reason for Marquis’ numbers to inflate as long as he keeps throwing strikes with his sinker. Unfortunately as we all know, this could be a problem for him. Great analysis

by cubs on Jun 18, 2008 10:33 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here’s my quick numbers related to the utility VORP-
DeRo has played 2 innings at 1B, 345 at 2B, 60 at 3B, 95 at LF, 45 at RF. I’m using these as weights, he probably got a few innings meant solely as a defensive sub in a double-switch where he didn’t bat, but for the long-term the weights should be appropriate for how he’s been used. The triple-slash league averages at each position are as follows-
1B- 273/359/473 for OPS 832
2B- 263/332/410 for OPS 742
3B- 271/339/451 for OPS 790
LF- 277/350/447 for OPS 797
RF- 264/345/446 for OPS 791
I found an article that states “replacement level” is assumed to be 70 points of OPS lower than the league average at a position. So if we create a replacement player, Mike LeRosa, with the same weight of innings played- the average weighted OPS at his “position” is 761, so Mike will be carrying a 691 OPS. Problem is, this is better than what a replacement 2B will give you. Basically the fact that our “replacement” is good enough to play LF/RF means he is a slightly better hitter than a regular 2B replacement, lowering the value of DeRo’s additional production slightly. The fact that he is well above the averages at every position does make it seem like his utility play should be more valuable….so what is left out of my quick analysis above?

1. If you mean “VORP over other utility guy”, then he is WAY above, as this could be considered something like a stat i just invented right now, VONP. Value over Neifi Perez, which is probably somewhere from 25 up to approximately 1,000,000 depending on whose calculations you use.
2. The players we have available- Ronny and Fontenot at 2B (and 3B i guess), Murt/Hoff in outfield. The 2Bs in a platoon would certainly be above average, and going with Ronny all the time could be close to league average 2B production, and certainly above replacement. Using those guys at 3B would be….bad to say the least. So some A-Ram protection is added in because we have a legit sub and can rest him without playing Little Mikey at 3B. I recall him playing there once I think? It was blocked out of my head I guess. But Ronny would suck as a starter there as well. Real bad.
The outfielders, who again would be a decent platoon….well by themselves I am pretty sure they would be less than average, with Micah being a definition of “replacement level”. And since we obviously can’t carry 3 platoons….Mark is bringing us additional value when we do have to play subs in the corners by being on the roster….I may try to better quantify this at a later date if anyone has any ideas.
3. Roster spots- having DeRosa really frees up the roster spots (although we use them terribly with Fonty). We would probably need to use Reed as a corner outfield sub frequently, or pick up someone who is legit on D as a corner backup….Darryl Ward is not really what I am talking about here…and as i LOVE having him on the bench(get well soon!) to PH, the luxury of such a player is pretty much due to DeRo’s versatility. If we had LeRosa the replacement, we might be forced to have someone like Fontenot as our primary LH PH. Which is a massive VORP-value adder, if we could consider such things.

So my basic thoughts here (way long, i know-sorry.) are that his utility does make him a little more valuable “VORP”wise, but it’s tough to quantify. If I am missing out on some giant study on this issue and typed this all for nothing, let me know, but I feel like it’s an interesting thing to look into if this is an unsolved question I might attempt to fully process the data and program something to try and figure it out.

Go Cubs.

by Canseco's Roid Party on Jun 18, 2008 10:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

There’s probably been 3 dozen studies that can be found in dusty corners of the blogosphere somewhere, but for the rest of us, I was thinking more along the lines of your VONP.

by DGU on Jun 18, 2008 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

How could you not mention Marmol?

his numbers are sick so far.

13.19 SO/9 3.14 BB/9 .84 HR/9

3rd among Cubs pitchers in VORP with 16.9

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"

My Blog

by shake n bake on Jun 18, 2008 10:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

those are my thoughts...

I’d also like to hear more about the rest of the Cubs’ bullpen.

Help me Obi-ONEDEC. You're our only hope.

by IowaCubs- on Jun 20, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I kind of just never got to the relievers due to me writing this at like 1 am. I also will use that as an excuse for any jokes that missed the target like Farnsworth. But yeah, Marmol’s numbers are so out of control, I mean he is as valuable as a good starter right now, which usually you wouldn’t see a reliever valued higher than a mediocre starter. 13.19! That rate is nuts. Of course, it does make one wonder, and I think it might be inevitable at SOME point in the future (like 2-3 years down the road)....back to the rotation? If he can cut down on the P/PA a little bit like Z has, just imagine what he could look like in the rotation putting up 9+ K/9. Basically he’s like Dempster but with every pitch way dirtier. Obviously it isn’t a move for this year and I’m sure not 09 either, but for a few years down the line we might see it tried at least to see how things go. Cause we definitely can’t throw him 100 IP out of the pen every year….that would not end well.

by Canseco's Roid Party on Jun 19, 2008 7:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just look at his FB%

It’s one of the highest rates in the majors. I bow down to White Castle as much as the next guy, but I worry about that turning into home runs this year, especially if his overuse early in the season will translate into a loss of velocity or worse, injury.

As a huge fan of the Bill James “bullpen ace” theory, I’d say with 100% confidence that Marmol is absolutely no Joba Chamberlain, and his value is enormous as a guy who can go 1 2/3 every other day or so, and sometimes on multiple occasions. I’m with you, however, in the worry about what sort of an impact the 90+ innings he’s going to throw will have on his bright future. I’m not sure putting him in the rotation will save him much, but I apprciate the compassion.

Help me Obi-ONEDEC. You're our only hope.

by IowaCubs- on Jun 20, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He only has two pitches

so the FB% will be very high. Luckily they are two very good pitches.

They ball when they can and I'm ballin' by nature
Addicted to the game like Jordan and Peyton
-Lil' Wayne "Fireman"

My Blog

by shake n bake on Jun 20, 2008 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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