The Sun-Times has an interesting article in today's paper. Using AccuScore , they predict the odds of the Cubs and White Sox winning their division, reaching the World Series, and of an All-Chicago World Series. Here are the numbers:
93.7% - Making the playoffs
83% - Win NL Central
40.2% - Making the World Serie
67.9% - Making the playoffs
66.2% - Win AL Central
20.3% - Making the World Series
8% - All-Chicago World Series
A few brief quotes from the article, then we can discuss:
The Cubs are looking fantastic,'' said Zach Rosenfield, managing editor of accuscore.com. ''They have the best statistical chance of any team in the National League to make the World Series, and that is in light of [Alfonso] Soriano going down.'
It has run thousands of simulations of every game in the 2008 season, and it re-simulates those games during the season to take into account recent stats and trends.
'(AccuScore) reruns everything overnight after each night's games,'' Rosenfield said. ''Real wins and losses impact probabilities. The new game data impacts player performance in simulations, and injuries all have impact.''