June 2, 2007 was the low point for the Cubs last season. On that day they lost to the Braves for their sixth consecutive loss putting them eight games under .500 with a record of 22-31. Lou famously erupted and Zambrano and Barrett had their altercation just one day before.
At that time the Brewers were leading the NL Central with a 31-25 record and the Cubs were in fifth, 7.5 games behind. Of course, June is when the Cubs turned it around. By the time July 1 rolled around the Cubs were back at .500 with a 40-40 record. They never touched .500 again. From June 2 on the Cubs went 63-46 and the Brewers went 52-54. The Cubs finished with 85 wins, the Brewers with 83.
The 2008 Cubs have a much better record than the 2007 Brewers at this time. The 2007 Brewers hit their peak earlier in the season. What's more interesting is the expected W-L projection. The 2007 Cubs were under performing by 5 games. They lost too many one run games. The 2007 Brewers were actually over performing by 2 games. This year, despite having the best record in baseball, the Cubs are still under performing by two games. Mostly due to that 19 run rout. The Brewers are over performing by 2 games. Their X W-L is 27-30 while their actual record is 29-28.
It seems to me that last year we were waiting for the Cubs to wake up and that what happened on June 2, 2007. They started to play up to their potential and it took 4 months of winning baseball to get to the top of the NL Central.
How difficult will it be to hold on to the top spot of the NL Central this year? Are the Cards for real, can the Brewers right the ship? It is great to be in such a different spot from one year ago, but there are still 4 months to go and if we learned anything last year, a lot can change.