One year ago today

by El Borto on Jun 2, 2008 10:45 AM CDT

June 2, 2007 was the low point for the Cubs last season. On that day they lost to the Braves for their sixth consecutive loss putting them eight games under .500 with a record of 22-31. Lou famously erupted and Zambrano and Barrett had their altercation just one day before.

At that time the Brewers were leading the NL Central with a 31-25 record and the Cubs were in fifth, 7.5 games behind. Of course, June is when the Cubs turned it around. By the time July 1 rolled around the Cubs were back at .500 with a 40-40 record. They never touched .500 again. From June 2 on the Cubs went 63-46 and the Brewers went 52-54. The Cubs finished with 85 wins, the Brewers with 83.

The 2008 Cubs have a much better record than the 2007 Brewers at this time. The 2007 Brewers hit their peak earlier in the season. What's more interesting is the expected W-L projection. The 2007 Cubs were under performing by 5 games. They lost too many one run games. The 2007 Brewers were actually over performing by 2 games. This year, despite having the best record in baseball, the Cubs are still under performing by two games. Mostly due to that 19 run rout. The Brewers are over performing by 2 games. Their X W-L is 27-30 while their actual record is 29-28.

It seems to me that last year we were waiting for the Cubs to wake up and that what happened on June 2, 2007. They started to play up to their potential and it took 4 months of winning baseball to get to the top of the NL Central.

How difficult will it be to hold on to the top spot of the NL Central this year? Are the Cards for real, can the Brewers right the ship? It is great to be in such a different spot from one year ago, but there are still 4 months to go and if we learned anything last year, a lot can change.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

I don't see the Cards

or the Brewcrew making it. I think we’re going to be up eight games by August.

"We expect to win. We go out to win. So we're just living up to our own expectations." Derek Lee, 5/29/08

by drewishdrewid on Jun 2, 2008 10:53 AM CDT reply actions

The Cardinals are hanging in there...

... a lot longer than I thought they would. I still don’t think they’re that good.

Don’t say 8 games in August. That brings back bad memories.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jun 2, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Relief Pitching

The fact that we have confidence in our relievers, and they are for the most part successful in doing their jobs, we are in it for the long run, ATLEAST, until October. Relief pitching=Longetivity, we shall be fine.

"God will squeeze really hard, but he will never choke you" - Carlos Zambrano

by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 2, 2008 10:55 AM CDT reply actions

Still far too early

but it’s nowhere near being out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs don’t stray far from first place all year. Especially if we can start playing .500+ ball on the road.

"And there's a...BASE HIT! Fair ball! Fontenot will score! CUBS WIN!" -Len Kasper, 5.28.08

by neverAcquiesce on Jun 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT reply actions

A Year Makes A Difference

The Cubs have the best team in the division. The Cardinals could win the wild card. I always think first is the best place to be. They don’t have to dig themselves out of a big hole this season.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jun 2, 2008 11:00 AM CDT reply actions

If the Cubs play .500 the rest of the year

They have 88 wins. I for one, think they will play better than .500 the rest of the year.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 2, 2008 11:00 AM CDT reply actions

Wow, that makes me feel better...

I have a bunch of mean Cardinals fans (okay, jealous cards fans) tell me yesterday that there’s no way the Cubs can sustain this. I came back armed with all sorts of stats and evidence and such, but there’s no swaying such people with the truth. I’m not sure that the Cubs have many weaknesses, and barring a Colorado Rockies style injury-fest, our Cubs are going to be tough to beat.

Help me Obi-ONEDEC. You're our only hope.

by IowaCubs- on Jun 2, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions

Cards fans hate us.

They hate our passion for the Cubs. I truly believe it stems from the fact that while the Cardinals have clearly been more successful than the Cubs over the years, Cubs fans have a love for the team that cannot be matched ANYWHERE.

"And there's a...BASE HIT! Fair ball! Fontenot will score! CUBS WIN!" -Len Kasper, 5.28.08

by neverAcquiesce on Jun 2, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

If .500 the rest of the way leads to 88 wins

it’s hard for me to image the Cubs with less than 95 wins this year… (barring some major inj*ries)

I haz show: http://hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on Jun 2, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions

indeed.

the magic three numbers is in reach, I think. Not likely, but in reach.

"We expect to win. We go out to win. So we're just living up to our own expectations." Derek Lee, 5/29/08

by drewishdrewid on Jun 2, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Well, their pace

is 102-60… That’s what .632 WP rounds to for the season. Certainly in reach, especially if they solve their road issues.

95 wins will mean 57-46 the rest of the way, only a .553 WP.

They win 95, they not only win the division, they have a really good chance at home field.

by blackhawk24 on Jun 2, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Correction: That's 59-46 (.562) the rest of the way

n/t

by blackhawk24 on Jun 2, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions

And the way this team is playing

home field advantage throughout would be HUGE.

Go NL All-Stars!

"And there's a...BASE HIT! Fair ball! Fontenot will score! CUBS WIN!" -Len Kasper, 5.28.08

by neverAcquiesce on Jun 2, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

I remember watching Lou's tirade last year ...

and I remember thinking what a great calculated move that was for him to bring all the focus on him. The team responded after that playing much looser and much better.

As for this year, they are playing out of their minds at home and if they can carry some of that “magic” on the road with them, they will be tough to beat. I am almost 37 years old and I don’t remember ever being this excited about the Cubs. I keep having to remind myself that it’s still early but I LOVE THIS TEAM … GO CUBS !!!

"My body is a temple.... a temple of doom." -source unknown

by Basman on Jun 2, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions