Ryan Theriot sucks.
by sackings108 on Jun 22, 2008 6:04 PM CDT
406 comments
Read this carefully: over the course of this year, our favorite scrappy little SS Ryan Theriot is on pace to cost the Cubs 18 runs with his horrific defense. 18 freaking runs. Some teams have a shortstop that actually helps their team on defense, but it would be nice to at least break even. This bum is actually costing us 18 runs, which will end up being the equivalent of three or four games based on pythagorean records. Anyway, here's the link to one of the most informed blog posts that I've read:
http://www.anothercubsblog.net/index.php/site/articles/it-got-past-theriot/
And yes, I know he does those all important "little things," but they really don't mean anything if he's costing us games with his defense. Not to mention the fact that his base-running is simply awful. And yes, I realize he's hitting .308 this year. But his OPS+ of 97 is actually below league average, even with that decent batting average. So this is a guy with horrible defense and base-running, and below average to decent hitting, and people are posting diaries talking about how great he is? How many times have BCB users said: "Ryan Theriot is great for this team, he does things that don't show up in the boxscore." Yeah, like cost his team 18 runs a year. Please, Jim Hendry, find us another starter, and once you're done with that, replace this bum!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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If you truly believe Theriot is hurting this team that much...
I dont think that you have ever watched his impact in the lineup day after day
by fuku-domenation on Jun 22, 2008 6:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
His impact?
Like all the double plays he hits into, or the ridiculous amount of times he’s been caught stealing? Real sparkplug, huh.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess DLee sucks too.
Seeing as how he’s grounded into several more than Theriot.
This post is garbage. It’s a Hater-aide drinking poster who for no real reason wants to gripe.
You want to talk stats? How about the most wins in baseball, best winning percentage, etc. It’s a team game, and as such personal stats aren’t nearly as important. Theriot’s play doesn’t seem to be affecting the overall performance of the team, so why should you complain?
As Al says, this season truly is special. Enjoy it. You’re like the tourist who goes on vacation and does nothing but gripe.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
by cubs0505 on Jun 23, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably the most flawed argument in this whole thread.
You see, Derrek Lee hits for power, and drives in runs. Not only that, he actually plays excellent defense. Ryan Theriot does none of these things well. The only thing that’s garbage is your logic. Most wins in baseball and best winning percentage are not things that Ryan Theriot has done, in fact, he has only hindered this team in it’s quest for more wins. You really think if the Cubs had a productive SS they would be a worse team? Get a clue.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your brain has a--the shell, on it.
Tommy: I think you’ll be okay here, they have a thin candy shell. ‘Surprised you didn’t know that.
Richard Hayden: I think your brain has a thick candy shell.
Tommy: Your… Your brain has the shell on it.
Richard Hayden: Are you talking?
Tommy: Shut up, Richard.
Did he just say funky butt-loving?
by Louie on Jun 24, 2008 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geez...
Sippin’ on the Hate-orade a little much? I mean, what gives? 18 runs a year is a significant statistic, yes, but such harsh words… is it really necessary? I think there are a bunch of great SS playing in the Bigs that the Cub fans would love to see in Cubbie Blue – who wouldn’t want Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins? Just my humble opinion, not backed up by stats of course, but I think Lou understands the success that this team is seeing and doesn’t want to fix what ain’t broke. Now our starting pitching on the other hand…
by socalicubsfan on Jun 22, 2008 6:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm
he also has the worst range of all nl shortstops and also has been caught stealing then all nl shortstops
by Glacier on Jun 22, 2008 6:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
also
has the 3rd worst fielding percentage for nl short stops and has the least amount of hrs xbh and rbis. just some things to keep in mind because i agree i think cub fans over rate him waaaaaaay to much
by Glacier on Jun 22, 2008 6:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
cwyers, you sound much less articulate today
Kidding . . .
by TORCO on Jun 22, 2008 6:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess it had been a few minutes
since we had this discussion. ::sigh::
by halfblindcubbiegirl on Jun 22, 2008 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree that Ryan Theriot is not a good ML SS.
In fact, I believe that DeRo is a better SS than Riot. However,
The Cubs have the best record in baseball right now. Don’t mess with a formula that is working.
Just enjoy the ride…
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Jun 22, 2008 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
True, he should play second
But as the team is currently constituted, theres no way to move him to second w/o costing DeRosa playing time
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jun 22, 2008 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to post something exactly like this.
Cut him, and the team, some slack on this. If Theriot actually begins to cost the Cubs games - rather than statistical runs based on mathematical formulas - you can bet Lou will get him out of there, because Lou doesn’t tolerate losing.
Until then, it ain’t broke. Don’t fix it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 4:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"cost the Cubs games"
It is very hard to watch the game (on TV and from certain places in the ballpark) and first note and then remember plays that you think an infielder should have gotten to but didn’t. There was at least one game we lost that I remember Theriot missing two or three GB outs, which I thought other SSs could have gotten to and which would have ended innings before runs went on the board. In that same game, there were more dramatic moments, however, which got the blame for the loss. The missed GB is not dramatic and very much open to interpretation – should he have gotten to that or not?
Last night, for example, in one of the early innings, there was a ground ball “up the middle” which looked to me to be fairly left of the 2B bag. It looked to be hit soft enough that a good SS would have gotten to it. The next play, however was a GIDP, so it didn’t matter. That play fairly well represents the problem to me – first there is the interpretation of the event – I’m sure someone will at least be tempted to say, “No SS gets to that anyway, and Theriot’s chemistry on defense is the reason that DP happened later.” Second, the missed GB either gets erased by the pitcher getting more outs, or when the pitcher or another fielder with an E gives up succeeding runs, we are more likely to blame the pitcher/fielder than to remember the missed out.
Our interpretation of what causes opponent runs to go on the board, doesn’t change the reality that Theriot’s SS defense IS broken. At the very least it is causing our pitchers frustration and higher pitch counts.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am well aware that Theriot's range and arm are below average.
Step away from the spreadsheet and charts for one second and name one game this year where his poor defensive skills have literally cost the Cubs a game. I think I posted about one myself earlier this season, but that’s it. One.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many more steps away do I need to take?
Your argument is like saying, “Name one game that Cesar Izturis’ hitting lost the Cubs last year.” Of course you will only be able to come up with one or two games in which it is obvious. That doesn’t mean that over a full season, it didn’t add up.
So, if one of the Cubs “problems” is that the starters can’t get late into games, and all of the starters seem to be having this problem, isn’t it fair to ask whether our middle IF (both of them) are part of the problem here, giving teams 4 outs in too many innings?
Meanwhile, I didn’t mention spreadsheets at all. I just don’t get how this post became a place to collect anti-SABR sentiment, when cwyers was on here quickly criticizing the stats used. Knowledge isn’t the dangerous thing; it’s a little knowledge used as if it is a lot of knowledge.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, this is where people think I am anti-stats...
... which is patently false. What I am against is the misuse of statistics, or not understanding HOW to use statistics, or when.
You said:
Knowledge isn’t the dangerous thing; it’s a little knowledge used as if it is a lot of knowledge.
Which is 100% true. It applies both to stat-oriented AND non-stat-oriented people.
Really, I wish people wouldn’t make posts like this. All they do is start the same old argument again, and the bottom line is—Lou likes Ryan Theriot, for his own reasons. The team is winning. He’s not going to replace Theriot, unless he stops hitting.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you're anti-stats.
I just think you rely way too much on what you think you see and if the stats don’t agree with your eyes you think that people are misusing them. So tell me, who is misusing the stats? A person taking an analytical approach, one who ignores his biases, or one who lets his biases inform his conclusions?
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you are anti-stats;
you just used stats in your recap post to correct the mistaken assertion of Joe Morgan. Stats help correct our memories and biased eyes.
The problem with defensive stats is that they are a mess right now. Fielding percentage is a joke because the decision on whether something is an Error or not is practically random but moreso because it doesn’t cover the balls fielders don’t get to. Meanwhile there are seemingly a half dozen different zone ratings. And none of them seem easy to understand.
I agree that Theriot’s going nowhere, but I do think this is a discussion worth having, if it can be done respectfully.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at the splits
He has struggled in June. .333ish OBP, under .300 AVG.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It comments like these
that explain why so many others around the Cubs blogosphere make fun of you Al. “step away from the spreadsheet and charts” Can you not tell from your perch 400 feet from home plate from a terrible angle that Theriot is among the worst defensive shortstops in baseball? Do you really need stats to tell you that?
Furthermore…
You often claim that you know what the advanced stats mean. Now I don’t frequent this site much because I get tired of high school students arguing without evidence, so forgive me if I’ve missed something: Can you please point to a single time in the long history of you posting about the Cubs on the internet where you have made a complete argument using a stat more advanced than OBP? Just one time where you have based your analysis on something more?
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do I need to do that to prove I understand them?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's up to you
But, quite frankly, I don’t think you do understand them. You have never done anything to show you understand them.
You know more Cubs history than almost anyone who blogs and you obviously go to more games. When it comes to counting stats (like today when you figured out how many home runs Ernie Banks could possibly have hit into the basket), you put in more time than anyone.
But you have not shown anything to demonstrate that your ability to understand the game has improved at all in twenty years.
Why should anyone assume that you understand any of them?
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so many others "make fun of al"?
really? wow. i find it odd to think that there is actually more than one stat loving cubs fan out there who would “make fun of” a person who i’ve found to be one of the fairest, most open minded, gracious hosts on the internet.
al rocks. your post was rude.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't mean to be rude at all
I think it’s pretty well accepted that a lot of other blogs mock Al. Whether it’s fair or not of them to do so is up for debate. I personally think that much of it is over the top.
But yes, the people at anothercubsblog, 1060west (rip), inaleagueofherown and others do mock Al and this site fairly often.
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
really?
“But you have not shown anything to demonstrate that your ability to understand the game has improved at all in twenty years.”
you can’t see how that might be rude? it’s fine of you to attempt to disassociate yourself with those blogs now. but you presented them as evidence of al’s shortcoming in your previous post. and you amusingly did so in a post where you called out this site as being full of “high school students arguing.” keep telling yourself you’re taking the high road…
and that leaves out your misreading of al’s comments. he has said REPEATEDLY on this thread alone that he thinks theriot’s defense is lacking.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was responding to the part
about citing other websites, which is the part you noted in your post.
the twenty years comment, which was not in the post you responded to and therefore could not have possibly been what you were talking about, was in response to Al’s defense of himself. I don’t think it was rude at all.
As for the high school students comment, I think you are demonstrating the immaturity that is apparent in far too many posts. You pick and choose selectively from multiple posts of mine to try to pick a fight regarding a discussion that you were not invited into. Al is more than capable of defending himself. He holds himself out as an expert on the Cubs and on baseball. I posted a challenge to that. His initial response was to ask if he really needed to prove his knowledge. I responded that, in my humble opinion, he does. It’s up to him to respond (either directly or in some future post where he demonstrates a knowledge of advanced stats).
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting
the twenty years comments was rude as was your original comment, in my opinion. i was pointing out a pattern of behavior.
a conversation i was not invited into? really? you do understand how comments sections on blogs work, right? feel free to email al all the rude comments you want and i promise i won’t say anything about them!
i know al can defend himself. heck, he probably doesn’t even want me defending him. i just get irked when i see condescending posts attempting to insult the fine host of this site. must be my “immaturity” showing.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You ought to continue to not "frequentthis website".
you don’t add anything.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good one Adam
You sure put me in my place
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ohhh using my formal name huh?
Listen man. Fact is your input lacks any value whatsoever. Just like the many other trolls here, youdrop in to take a shot at 1, 2, or 10 people here. Why not take a walk, and never return if this blog, run by someone you clearly have a problem with, doesn’t suit your needs?
I sure would like to oput you in your place “LEON”.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ooh, fight, fight
We’ve met Adam, and trust me, the fat version of who you used to be wouldn’t have a prayer.
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what was that you were saying...
about high school students and their comments?
pot? meet kettle.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Step it up tough guy.
What’s your name if I know you friend? Oh you probably wouldn’t do something like that would you?
Please do share as I am very curious. Oh and calling me fat does nothing for your argument tough guy.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I thought "Leon"
Calling my name out here in public, calling me fat ( I think), and then hiding. Any time you want to share that name, I’m listening. You know, if I wouldn’t have a prayer.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
I know exactly who you are you punk bitch! I wouuld whoop yo ass fool. I can’t believe it is you and I didn;t get it sooner! Nice.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh if it helps..
I make fun of you all the time. It’s a blast, you ought to try it sometime.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I make fun of you all the time
and I enjoy when you don’t frequent this blog..it makes this place more enjoyable.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 23, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who or what is to say he hasn't already cost them?
The numbers are rather obvious, aren’t they? Just because you can’t “see” it on the field doesn’t mean he hasn’t cost them. This is the kind of logic I cannot stand from people who dislike statistical analysis. Your eyes are far more flawed than any metric you will ever find. You are not capable of sorting out who or what is costing this team runs and wins without quality analysis UNLESS the player is so obviously worthless, which is rarely the case.
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I repeat something I posted somewhere else here.
Be specific. Don’t quote numbers—tell me, specifically, which games Theriot has cost with bad defense, or lack of defense. I remember posting about one in particular, but I can’t remember the exact game right now.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give me a break, Al.
Pointing to one specific example doesn’t mean crap and if you think it does you don’t understand stats nearly as well as you say you do.
Bottom line is that allowing extra hits is not good. Period. Unless you think allowing more hits is good, then you have no argument, Al. None of you do around here. You guys keep arguing the same stuff (I see it with my eyes therefore it’s right). You’re wrong.
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are not good at reading
that makes me suspect your ability to understand numbers.
from a post al made about 6 inches up on this thread: “I am well aware that Theriot’s range and arm are below average.”
you are continuing to attempt to set up straw men that you claim al and others support, just so you can easily knock them down. al has said repeatedly that theriot isn’t the greatest defensive SS. his point, and the one others are making, is that some of the stat based people are overstating their cases. that there are flaws in the numbers. that the stats are useful, but not the whole story.
that’s it. and that’s not a position you care to address apparently.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather say
“there are flaws in interpreting the numbers”... rather than:
that there are flaws in the numbers
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, but you're not actually pointing out flaws in our numbers.
The point Al is making is that a missed defensive play only matters if it shows up in the boxscore – which, given Al’s history, I think is an odd point to be making. It completely ignores the effect Theriot’s bad defense has on our pitching staff, if nothing else – making them throw more pitches, using our top relievers more because the team can’t hold a big lead.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
here is the flaw
say for example theriot makes 3 errors in one game. and then none in the next five. the cubs win the three error game by 10, and then go 3-2 over the next five. now say defensive stats (i’m fudging here, but cut me some slack…) give theriot a minus 8 run defensive contribution and translate to three losses. that would be problematic for two reasons: first, we didn’t lose three games. and second, the errors clearly didn’t lead to a loss, but the numbers can’t tell you that without much more depth to them.
now i’m not saying throw the baby out with the bath water. i like the stats. i’m a proud baseball prospectus reader. but to pretend the stats are flawless and tell us everything is just as wrong as pretending our eyes are flawless and tell us everything.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Errors are meaningless in evaluating defense.
What you want to know is how many ground balls were hit to him, and how many he converted for outs. Then you look at the run value of an out at shortstop (.75 or so, off the top of my head) and the fact that, for an average team, 10.5 runs = one marginal win. So we’re talking about a lot more than three plays to get to -8 runs.
The problem with the point of view that you’re espousing is that player have no control over WHEN they have their good and bad performances. It’s not like Theriot is saving his defensive misplays for days when he knows his teammates will pick him up, and saving his good defensive plays for when the team needed them the most – if he had that much control over whether or not he made plays, then he’d be a good defensive shortstop all the time!
What we know is that run scoring and prevention are how you win baseball games, and that a player who is poor at those things is likely to cost you runs, and therefore wins, in the future. Baseball’s a team sport, so you can’t simply attribute all the responsibility for any single win or loss to one player. You can only look at who gives you the best chance of winning in the future.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
meaningless?
again, if you didn’t overstate your case you’d probably be a lot better off. errors may not be the best defensive measurement. but i’m pretty sure fly balls bouncing off a CF’s glove on a consistent basis might be a useful component of evaluating said CF’s defense…
and you’re really kind of talking around my point again. i suggested a situation which could produce statistics that are divorced from the reality of the games due to their lack of context.
thus stats taken at the conclusion of a season that include some sort of “Win shares” measurement can be very useful in understanding a player’s contribution to the team. midway through june, however, a statement like “ryan theriot is gonna cost this team like 4 losses dude” isn’t quite so accurate, is it? partially because of the fudged math there, partially because of the extrapolating from a small sample, partially because of the overly broad claim which lacks context, and partially because someone is trying to use the stats to prove a direct causal relationship when that’s not what the measurements are meant to do.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whole point is to neutralize context!
Players have no control over their context. Giving a player credit for the context of his performance means that a bad player on a good team looks better than a good player on a bad team. You have to isolate a player from his teammates’ performance in order to determine his value.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends on your goal
i guess it just depends on what you’re trying to prove. if you’re trying to prove that theriot “cost this team 4 wins” but can’t point to any game where he actually did, you know, cost his team a win then maybe we’re just trying to measure two different things. and maybe the verbiage around the stat isn’t as accurate as it could be.
context can’t be completely removed from a 162 game season. claiming that it can, and that your conclusions from the stats are ironclad truths is a poor argument.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There doesn't have to be a major play
tha costs the team a game. It doesn’t have to be an amazing play that wins the team a game. going 0 for 4 hurts the team. Going 2 for 4 helps the team. It can be little things too. And when you add up all those little things throughout a season, you get to determine a player’s net worth. Those little things we don;’t remember will end up adding up to a lot more importance than those few plays that we all will remember.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, what's next, Al?
Are you going to try and tell me that Jeter is a good defensive shortstop because he hasn’t cost the Yankees a lot of specific games and they won 4 World Series with him so he must be good?
Ryan Theriot is bad at defense. He’s not good at hitting either.
I honestly find it hard to believe that there is even one person arguing either of those points.
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s not good at hitting either.
That’s too broad a statement. It depends on what hitting stats you are using to determine a hitter’s value…
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
First you have to determine which hitting stats best capture a hitter's overall value.
It’s not any kind of right to simply evaluate Theriot soely based upon the hitting stats he’s good at, especially at the expense of other stats that do a better job of capturing value.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot
sucks at hitting. Really.
Apart from power stats, he’s actually very decent. Higher OBP than Lee, Soto, Soriano, DeRosa. Leads all Cubs starters (not counting Zambrano) in average. Second in hits to Lee. 4th in runs, ahead of, again, DeRosa, Soriano, Soto.
In fact, the only stat that isn’t power-related that I’d say he’s less than average at would be RBIs, which are kind of a flawed stat to begin with.
So yes, you’ve found a person arguing your point. Maybe you should actually put some thought into your claims before you spew nonsense.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
by cubs0505 on Jun 23, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like that you cite runs
...but dismiss RBI’s as a flawed stat.
You’re half way there – keep reaching for that rainbow and you’ll get there eventually!!!
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
if I am to look closely at RBIs, I could state that hitting primarily in the 2 hole limits his RBI opportunities, at least first time through the order. I won’t do this but this is a valid point right?
Move the leadoff man over. That is what we want from our 2 hitter? Move him into scoring position? If am wrong, then please correct me but he does appear to have one of the better “inside out” swings on the team. He consistently hits to the opposite field which is a very valuable skill when batting second. Just saying..
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you missed what I was getting at.
Here’s a hint: they’re both flawed stats.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So they cannot be used to judge value of a player?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
RBI's and Runs? No.
They are team-dependent. As such they aren’t very useful in comparing players.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can fake it using Runs Produced...
...which is R+RBI-HR. It works out alright; subtract AB/10 for an outs adjustment and you have a quick-and-dirty player metric. Works better than batting average. Of course, now that Batting Runs is on every player’s Baseball-Reference.com page, I don’t know that there’s a real point to it. Useful if you’re ever stranded on a desert island with nothing but some copies of USA Today and have to perform some emergency, life-saving sabermetrics, I guess.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of...but not really...
unless you want to use GIDP’s as a metric to judge the value of pitchers too.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 23, 2008 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's a stats based argument for you
a few starts ago dempster got spotted a huge lead. can’t remember the game, but i seem to recall the cubs being up something obscene, like 10 or 11 to nothing. so dempster goes out there on a night when the bullpen could use a rest and starts clearly grooving fastball after fastball down the middle. just begging the opposite team to put it in play. so they do. repeatedly. and dempster ends up giving up like 4 or 5 runs.
now statistically, this is a poor outing. raised his ERA. wasn’t a quality start. etc, etc. but in context of the game, it was a great start that used minimal energy and required nothing much from the pen. and most importantly got us a win. and nowhere in any advanced stats will it show up as anything other than a poor outing.
so who’s right? the stat person who says it was a terrible outing, or the person who believes their lying eyes that it was a good outing and a win?
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a question -
Why did you use Dempster’s outing as an example instead of the more recent outing by Marquis? Or did a lot of us respond to Marquis’ outing not by thinking he just threw it over the plate to eat the innings, but rather thinking, “Even spotted a big lead, Marquis nearly blows it”? And how do we go about making the decision that Marquis isn’t as good a pitcher as Dempster?
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's right?
Probably me since no such game as you describe exists, but hey, who cares about facts? Facts just get in the way, don’t they?
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, silly Maddog
Facts are for kids.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
by cubs0505 on Jun 23, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check the game logs...
...if you’d like. You’re absolutely wrong about this.
Again, this is why I trust the stats over what people see – because people don’t always see what they think they saw.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fine
the exact game i was referring to was the april 30th game where demp got spotted a big lead, and then appeared to not be quite as competitive in his pitching. seemed to just throw the ball over the plate a bit.
but just because my memory of that one game doesn’t exactly match what happened doesn’t mean the hypothetical point doesn’t still stand.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your point was that your observations captured information that the stats didn't.
The problem is that your observations were misremembered. This is why we use the stats in the first place; humans are imperfect creatures, with imperfect memories. We use the stats to help our memories.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
He is a bad SS, but truly an above average player.
"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti
by wrigleyrocker12 on Jun 23, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eighteen runs seems a bit exaggerated to me, off the cuff.
Thirteen to fourteen seems more correct, based upon his STATS, Inc. ZR to date. Regress that to the mean, and maybe we’re looking at 10 to 12 runs instead; and any more than we can’t throw out last season’s hitting numbers when evaluating Theriot, if we were going to project him over the course of a full season, we have to account for his .863 ZR from last season as well. (Compared to .800 for this season.)
by cwyers on Jun 22, 2008 6:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, eighteen runs is probably off.
Looking at it, Maddog just took my numbers, rounded up to the second nearest whole number and doubled them. I don’t have to tell you that’s… imprecise.
by cwyers on Jun 22, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a new and exciting topic
So well articulated and thought out.
Is it well informed just because it agrees with you?
by Arbusto on Jun 22, 2008 6:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No, it's well informed
because it uses the most advanced metrics we have to measure a player’s worth, beyond the scrappyness that many of you seem to put so much stock into.
by sackings108 on Jun 22, 2008 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
always an amusing argument to me
when batting average was “the most advanced metric we had to measure a player’s worth” that apparently was blindness and ignorance on our part. but now, this time, for sure we’ve totally got it figured out! these are like, the best stats EVER!
by billywan on Jun 22, 2008 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry but
do you actually understand how these metrics are computed? Because it sounds like you don’t and are just copying numbers from some site. Sorry if I’m wrong, but thats what i get from reading you’re comments… I really think that you should understand what you’re talking about before you say it…
If you don’t really understand these defensive metrics, heres a site that explains various common methods pretty well. \
BTW, there are more refined metrics than the ones that site used, mostly because they have more data.
by ecbc on Jun 22, 2008 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are more refined metrics than STATS ZR and RZR...
...but they’re not available for 2008, unless you know something I don’t.
And so far as I know, Maddog mostly cited my RZR conversion to +/-; he took some liberties, granted, but I’d like to hear if you have any specific criticsms of what I did.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 2:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I took some liberties, but I did say "on pace" for.
If he were to play defense at his current level all season it’s probably close to 18 runs.
by Maddog on Jun 23, 2008 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
I’m not criticizing what you did. I’m not expecting you to pay for the the other info. But sackings just seems to be pulling these numbers from a site that he doesn’t even understand. I’m suggesting he understand them before talking about them.
I’m not criticizing you, but his statement “uses the most advanced metrics we have to measure a player’s worth” is clearly false in that there are other methods that are better It shows his lack of knowlege of what he is talking about so vigorously, apparent in his other posts too..
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
As always, if someone wants to donate the $5k it would take to buy a year’s worth of data from STATS, Inc, I wouldn’t say no. :)
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about
leading the team in batting average, second in hits, third in walks, and fourth in runs scored?
Did he just say funky butt-loving?
by Louie on Jun 22, 2008 7:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll bite.
What about leading the team in batting average?
by cwyers on Jun 22, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's one number louder.
Did he just say funky butt-loving?
by Louie on Jun 22, 2008 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
according to him
thats not important
his formula on how many runs he will give up is what matters
by dariot2 on Jun 22, 2008 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, your right.
I’m the only person who puts stock in SABRmetrics. Bill James, Will Carroll, people that have more baseball knowledge than you could ever dream of, they don’t exist. Well put, my friend.
by sackings108 on Jun 22, 2008 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did Theriot rape your mother?
why all the hate? I really think your views on this subject are a little warped.
I think my favorite uncle was Uncle Caveman. We called him that because he lived in a cave and would eat one of us. We then realized he was a bear.
by deepthoughtsbyjackhandey on Jun 22, 2008 8:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Awful
2 for 2 and 3 double plays turned, awful player
by rtraugs25 on Jun 22, 2008 8:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this post is right up there
as on of the dumbest posts of the year. The post and poster both are stupid.
by cubswin on Jun 22, 2008 9:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
up there w/ “Brian Roberts trade rumor!!! version 14”
by PrincetonCubs on Jun 22, 2008 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+ 3
"God will squeeze really hard, but he will never choke you" - Carlos Zambrano
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 23, 2008 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+4.43074
I’m very glad Lou manages with baseball intelligence and not a calculator.
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
by Reddevil on Jun 23, 2008 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just so you know...
There are plenty of people who’ve posted in disagreement with what I’ve said, yet obviously what I posted were statistical facts, and then my opinion based on them. At least those people felt the need to make arguments and back them up, instead of writing “+whatever number” All 5 of you are pathetic, learn how to make arguments, instead of just dismissing something you can’t grasp as “stupid.”
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you even talking to now?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Theriot is an asset
The sabermetricians don’t understand that not everything can be explained by formulas and trend lines. Theriot is a sparkplug on this ballclub. His defense is okay. I have come full circle on Theriot. Thank goodness he is member of this club.
GET Rich Harden !! 9 starts, 4-0, 53 IP, 67 Ks, 2.53 ERA
by MDBNIU on Jun 22, 2008 9:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Something positive
I like it…keep it up.
by bikemonkey on Jun 22, 2008 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
People can bash Theriot as much as they like and pull out all these different stats to prove he isn’t worthy. I don’t want DeRosa at SS, i think most people here would agree. And I personally don’t think Cedeno is a better OVERALL upgrade than Theriot, better defense yes, better hitter or overall player, no. Theriot does many good things for this club.
We have the best record in baseball, we are apparently doing something right. Lou knows what he is doing!
"Go Cubs Go"
by mkcubs21 on Jun 23, 2008 9:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude. Come on.
At the time of this post, they are going to be 20 games over .500, and 4.5 games up over the Cards, and you’re going to find something to piss and moan about? I’ve said this here before, and it definitely applies to the poster of this diary. GIVE ME ONE TEAM WHO DOESN’T HAVE A WEAK LINK SOMEWHERE THEY MIGHT WANT TO SHORE UP??? Are you serious? You have to be drunk. Great baseball players with no faults grow on trees, next to the money trees, and the other trees that grow top level prospects. So why the hell wouldn’t we get someone better, beings its so easy. This is absurd. Sackings…you’re being a complete tool. While Jim is at it, he should just re-build starting at the break and get some ball players that are perfect. Go to your little Saber metric sites and look up your TZ124NINER77aZONER ratings a little more, and find something to moan about for everyone, while the rest of us understand baseball, and are happy where we are at.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
by TCobb1911 on Jun 22, 2008 10:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
can you possibly be serious?
Do you expect people to take what you say seriously when you berate and insult someone who makes a reasonably intelligent post?
Normally I just pass on responding, but this is a pretty insulting post that does nothing more than make you look like a complete goof.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reasonably intelligent??
That is far from reasonably intelligent. I guess I’m a complete goof. Whatever. But I’ll be a complete goof who has better things to do WHEN THEY ARE 20 GAMES OVER .500 than to take the guy who is leading your club in hitting, and find the place where he may hurt you, and berate him. Seriously, it gets damn old when the mood here should be SKY HIGH over what took place this weekend, and you read something like this. Come on! 20 games over .500…some people will find ANYTHING to moan about.
Its funny, you spend most of your life gripping a baseball. And in the end, its almost always the other way around.
by TCobb1911 on Jun 23, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I REALLY DON'T CARE
The Cubs are winning. Theriot is part of the best team in baseball right now. It’s working. Tell your alleged statistics to SHUT UP.
Santo Forever!
by BeerCub on Jun 22, 2008 10:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
he cost 18 runs...
sure, ill give u that. but how many runs is he responsible for with rbi’s and runs combined???
"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying" - Michael Jordan, the one and only...
by LPLancer23 on Jun 22, 2008 10:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Get a grip! You are a drama queen.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 22, 2008 10:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This whole Theriot and everyone who doesn’t hit for power sucks I blame Sosa and McGwire and that bunch for.
People who know the game know that getting on base is valuable. That’s what Theriot does.
He’s an average defender. He also has made some great plays. And how preposterous he personally cost us 18 games this year.
Go Cubs
by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 22, 2008 10:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Oops the poster says 18 runs not wins.
How many runs have some of his good plays saved?
Oh for the days when people valued OBP.
Go Cubs
by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 22, 2008 10:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is ridiculous.
Honestly, Theriot is a blue-collar player with a chip on his shoulder. If you watch the cubs play, it is obvious that he brings intangibles like hustle and winning attitude to the game ever day. Not to mention, he is extremely clutch in late innings when the cubs are tied or down and need to start a rally. He finds a way to get on base.
NOT TO MENTION, HE IS HITTING .310 with a .385 OBP—-not too shabby!!!
by WUSTLCubsFan on Jun 22, 2008 10:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like specific criticisms
"Give 'im the heater!" -Lou Brown
by Goodie1969 on Jun 22, 2008 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Cubs Pitching Staff
is responsible for allowing 75 HR this year. By my count, that’s 57 more than Theriot’s runs allowed. So I guess they suck too, eh?
"Give 'im the heater!" -Lou Brown
by Goodie1969 on Jun 22, 2008 10:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
eeeeeeeeeeeww
understand the stats before you talk about them…..
by ecbc on Jun 22, 2008 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with the points you bring up in your post....
but I wouldn’t call him a bum. He’s still a valuable member of the team. I think we would be much better with Cedeno at SS and have Theriot be a utility guy. He could get plenty of playing time by spelling DeRosa when DeRo has to play RF or LF.
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 22, 2008 10:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They're supposed to give up runs.
No pitching staff throws shutouts for an entire year. Shortstops, however, shouldn’t cost their teams runs.
Yet, in hindsight I admit this diary was probably posted in haste. Yes, every team has a weak link, and no team is perfect. For the 2008 Cubs, their weak link appears to be Theriot, and that’s acceptable given his decent hitting stats. I agree with Bump Bailey, that I’d rather have Cedeno starting. But, in the end, Theriot has still been a somewhat productive member of this team, even though I think many people on here give him way more credit than he deserves. And I really don’t understand the posters who bash SABRmetrics, and say that a real understanding of baseball is achieved outside of SABR stats, like TCobb1911. Clearly, SABRmetrics are the best type of stat available today, and help gain a deeper understanding of the game. To each his own, I guess…
by sackings108 on Jun 22, 2008 10:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Point is....
your ever so difinitive diary stating that Theriot “sucks” is a ridiculous over estimation based on only ONE thing, your special stats. I will not say numbers have nothing to do with estimating a players worth but you are carrying it way too far basing it solely on your theories and numbers.
As is the way with many things, the right formula undoubtedly is a balanced combination of several different methods. Yes, your numbers count but yes, the way a player plays, what he brings to the club(house), how he can lead other players, and good attitude ALSO have something to do with his value on this team. For you to discount that because you don’t believe in it is a joke.
Theriot does NOT suck. He may not be to your liking but who really cares anyway? The kid is hitting for avg, he is driving in runs, he plays a serviceable SS…get over yourself.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, he doesn't play a serviceable SS.
That was the point, and you’d be hard pressed to find a worse defensive SS. And no, he isn’t driving in runs, not that that really matters for a 2 or 8 hitter, but he’s driven in 22 runs in 277 at bats. Compare that to Ronny Cedeno, who’s driven in 19 in just 107 at bats. To claim Theriot is driving in runs is ridiculous. And get over myself? Why, because I posted my opinion on an opinion driven blog? Way to finish your argument with a bang.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Serviceable:
“capable of or being of service; useful”
You show me where Theriot has booted every grounder, thrown away every toss to 1B, screwed up every DP that comes his way, and I will tell you his play is completely useless.
I in no way am saying he is at the top of the list of SS. What I am saying is your dramatic overreaction is a joke. Useful means can be used. If he had no value at all, he would never make a play and never drive in a run. Oh an as for YOUR OPINION as to what runs mean somethingn thanks anyway…you are one, numbers obsessed fan…your opinion: NOT SERVICEABLE. Every point you make is what you think his hits are worth, or what you think would be a better option. Who’s to say that Cedeno isn’t simply better in the PH role? I am fairly certain several of those 19 RBIs are as a PH not a starter. Got numbers on that?
Oh and as for getting over yourself, your posts are arrogant and presumptuous and as long as we are on an “opinion driven blog”, we are all allowed to point out that you’re too dramatic. Just the facts ma’am.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, my posts are well informed.
And apparently yours aren’t, because all of Cedeno’s 19 RBIs came while he was starting at either 2nd or SS. In his 14 pinch hit at bats, he has 0 RBIs. So the rest of your argument was pretty presumptuous, wouldn’t you say. Oh, and here’s the link, ma’am:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=cedenro02&year=2008
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, that was a statement I shouldn't have made without quitting my job,
spending my morning researching stats, and then using them here. My bad. Apparently, his wopping 19 RBIs came as a starter. Maybe you ought to place a call to Lou then and tell him he is managing poorly by utilizing Theriot as a starter. Since of course, you and your numbers know best.
Have you pointed out one game where Theriot actually cost the team the W?
Can you even do this? And if you can…can you also find some number that proves that no other player costs this team the game ever? If not, do any of these other players suck? If not, why not? Because your stats say so?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His wopping 19 RBIs?
And Theriot’s 22 in over double the at-bats is good? Good logic there. And it took me about 8 seconds to search “Ronny Ced” at baseball-reference.com, don’t think you really need to be quitting your job for that. And yes, the stats do know better than you do. What, you saw Theriot hustle yesterday, so now his pathetic OPS is ok? Sure. And I’m not saying no player ever costs the team games, but they also produce on the field, which Theriot does not.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're wasting your time sackings108
Adam doesn’t believe in stats. He’s Adam freaking Weber, man. He takes absolute positions and it doesn’t matter what facts you have to prove him wrong. He is right. Always.
by Leon Durham on Jun 23, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose sharing my name is suppose to bother me?
I don’t care you do. You are a “freakin” troll and you hide behind your keyboard, use peoples’ real names to compromise them, and then run off to hide. You are a joke. That is something I am right about “Leon”...show me some stats that prove me wrong on that one tough guy.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still see his play as serviceable...
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, for the 100th time...
not everything you see is correct. That’s why the stats are useful, to help people like you who think that Theriot is good, simply because you’ve never seen him cost the team a game, see that he actually does cost the team games. Stop being a hypocrite, and try to not be so narrow minded yourself.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please point out where I said he is a "good" SS.
Little uninformed yourself aren’t you? AGAIN, I do not believe that your stats are the only factor in determining who costs this team games. What I want, since you paint the lot of us who oppose your opinion as stupid, is for you to dumb it down a bit and give me a specific example. If this is so hard to do, then I think your argument is flawed.
And to go even further, if he is costing the team so many games, and the team still has the best record in baseball, is your theory about how horrible he is sound. I would say not. At this point, if you can prove to me that he has lost all 28 games (I think it’s 28) then I still say he is serviceable because he is not hurting this team as bad as you like to say he is. Just my opinion though…at least i can admit that if you can’t.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats CAN be useful...
they just aren’t the be all end all…as you so clearly argue.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want you to show me why Cedeno can't be considered
simply better in the PH role because that is where some of those 19 RBIs came from, not as a starter.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That IS where some of those runs came from?
Pretty definitive about that, for somebody who’s dead wrong. You could click on the link in my last response to you, but just in case that’s too hard, let me throw it out there again for you:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=cedenro02&year=2008
You’ll see that a grand total of zero (0) of his RBIs come from pinch hitting.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And thanks for the compliment
I figured since we are an “opinion driven blog” I can express my opinion. Which happens to be you need to get over yourself.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
zone rating vs. positioning
i don’t know enough about zone rating, but one thing i’ve always wondered about is how it could take defensive positioning into account. not to defend theriot’s range, because like the golden god of SS, derek jeter, the young theriot….well, he lacks range.
but let’s say that a pull hitting right hander is at the plate. the game plan is to pitch him fast balls in and change ups away. trying to get him to pull the ball, but not hit well. (this might be a terrible hypothetical, but bear with me….) anyway, the shortstop is positioned way over in the hole. unfortunately, the pitcher misses by about 8 inches with his fastball and leaves it out over the plate. so instead of a groundball in the hole, it’s a ground ball up the middle. and the shortstop comes into the picture really late as the ball rolls past him into the outfield. the fan at home thinks “man, i’ve seen lots of shortstops go up the middle and get that ball, but theriot’s nowhere near it!”
but in this case is that really theriot’s fault? and yes his lack of range can inhibit his ability to overcome a poorly executed pitch. but how often does bad scouting/bad pitch execution end up looking like the SS made the mistake?
sorry for the rambling…
by billywan on Jun 22, 2008 11:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
it's not perfect
neither is any stat really. Many wrong ump calls are made each day. Errors might become hits or vice versa. Bloop singles probably shouldn’t be the same as line drive singles in measuring a hitter’s skill in a stat like OBP.
You bring up a very good point, and it really is important to understand that no stat is perfect. However, stats are the best estimation we have to measure and predict a player’s talent. The only thing better would be if you could watch every single game (always getting the best view possible) and perfectly memorize every single second of each game. That would be a lot more accurate. However, there isn’t time for that. Assuming games last about 3 hours each, thats 303.75 days of baseball per season. you would have to sleep, eat and do other things for less than 5 hours a day to fit that into a year. And you’d probably have to be at the stadium to actually get the best view; TVs don’t capture the position of players at the start. It’s basically impossible (time travel been invented yet?) because you’d have to be in many stadiums at the same time and you’d need the ability to .
Thus, we rely on stats. For each stat you have to know its limitations. While there is an error in stats, we still know that they are reliable. to some extent. While we can’t really compare a .354 OBP to a .358, a 30 point difference over a large sample size does allows us to conclude which player gets on base better. For ZR, we know that position players do shift, but they still play in about the same place every time. We know that a SS will never be in shallow right field. Exaggerated shifts are rare. So basically, we know that we can estimate the zones that players can cover.
Using the basic knowledge that, most of the time, players are in a similar area, allow us to use ZR and its more refined metrics. While there is error, its highly unlikely that Theriot has been out of the normal position so much that he creates enough error to make him an average SS.
I think a lot of stats haters and quoters get the impression that either stats are perfect or that the people who use stats think that stats are perfect. That’s not the case. The most improtant part to using stats is to understand them. Are they reliable, and how reliable are they? What flaws are there and what problems may they cause and how big of an effect will these problems have? When you answer these questions, only then can you use stats correctly.
If you want to understand the basics of defensive metrics, use this.
by ecbc on Jun 22, 2008 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the reply
i will check that link out. looks interesting.
i think you mentioned the point that bugs me most about stathead conversations here “I think a lot of stats haters and quoters get the impression…that the people who use stats think that stats are perfect.”
i’m not sure why, it just irks me whenever i see someone using a stat as an absolute, end all discussion, perfect truth. they are useful. and their usefulness has grown in leaps and bounds over the last 20 years. but they’re not perfect.
i also think it’s kind of interesting how the stat people used to be kind of the underdog, outsiders. the one’s questioning the common knowledge and always looking for a better way to understand things. now they’ve become so established that they almost seem to brush off all criticism and attempts at better understanding.
anyway, thanks for the reply.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the big differences between this team and teams of Cubs lore is the fact they are getting on base. Theriot is doing that and has batted 2nd most of this season. His job is not hitting homeruns it’s to get on first base.
Go Cubs
by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 23, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are a few crude ways to take positioning into account.
You look at the handedness of the batter – teams play a little differently for lefties and righties. You look at the base/out situation and control for whether teams are probably holding on a runner or playing in. Mitchel Lichman, a major league consultant who does the UZR rankings, has started to exclude hitters like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner who see the “wishbone” shift a lot.
There are some pieces of data you’d like to have, like a fielder’s starting positioning or the “hang time” on air balls.
One team where defensive shifts seems to play a huge role is for the Brewers; J.J. Hardy’s numbers at shortstop are radically different between RZR and ZR, while most players tend to be (relatively) consistent between systems.
Which is one thing we can do – look at multiple sources of data. STATS, Inc. and BIS use different zones entirely to calculate ZR, and so an issue like that, you would expect to show a discrepancy in the data. For Theriot, there really isn’t a lot of discrepancies in the data. There are of course sampling issues, but that’s true about almost everything.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 2:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most people
know Jeter is a mediocre defensive shortstop
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are coming off a three game sweep
and have just won our fourteenth in a row at home. do we really need a thread titled so and so sucks? i am pretty sure we all think of things more positive right now to be talking about.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic" Crash Davis - Bull Durham
by hoppy91 on Jun 22, 2008 11:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What the?!?
Nevermind, can’t even come up with anything well thought out that hasn’t all ready been said here. So I just say whatever dude.
Geovany Soto you're my Hero
by love the ivy on Jun 22, 2008 11:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Theriot will never play on an all star team or win the MVP award and will only go to the HOF as a guest of a teammate for his induction but the idea he sucks is preposterous.
His job offensively is to get on base. He does that.
He plays an average defense.
Baseball got along for 100 plus years without sabermetrics.
Go Cubs
by cubstoseriesby100 on Jun 22, 2008 11:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
haha, nice.
People got along for thousands of years without phones or bikes. I guess we should get rid of those and ignore them because people haven’t always used them.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and don't forget KOW,
Humans got along for thousands of years without running water as well. I say we all just go back to the stone ages, and then we’ll all be better of right?
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to say "sucks"
is rather harsh. Theriot is an average shortstop in the major leagues who happens to be on the best team in baseball right now ( record wise ). To trash this guy is crazy, better get use to it, he is not going anywhere.
And didn’t the Cards win the World Series with Eckstein at SS? Thought so.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 22, 2008 11:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to to argue on what you're claiming
but please, stop using this terrible line of reasoning: “And didn’t the Cards win the World Series with Eckstein at SS? Thought so.” Things like this or just saying things like “well we’re the best team in baseball right now” is just absolutely horrid logic.
The debate is NOT about whether the Cubs can win with Theriot. I think they can. The debate is: is Theriot helping the team/an acceptable SS?
Things like “And didn’t the Cards win the World Series with Eckstein at SS? Thought so.” prove nothing. This statement is completely random since it doesn’t provide anything to the question that is being debated (is Theriot helping the team?). And since people seem to think this actually does prove a point in the debate, this is just the worst logic. It is off-topic and irrelevant that we are winning with Theriot. This information still doesn’t tell us the effect that Ryan Theriot individually is having on the the overall team. Just because we are winning doesn’t show that Theriot is helping us win.
If you want to support Theriot, use some other proof, whatever it may be. But please stop saying this. It annoys the hell out of me to think that people actually think this line of reasoning actually proves Theriot is good.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little support for Theriot
I haven’t read all the defensive stats, but just from watching him with my own eyes, I’m sick of Theriot playing short. He has poor range and a weak arm for a SS, and it’s on display every day. But from the hitting standpoint, I really appreciate that he has been the third best Cub at not making outs. I think not making outs is very valuable to a lineup and helps the team win, and if he doesn’t slide in this area any further than he has unfortunately started to, then I’ll continue to support him as part of the everyday line up.
''Listen, losing Soriano is no box of chocolates.'' ~Lou Piniella
by JohnM on Jun 23, 2008 3:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not making outs
Theriot is second on the team in Outs Made (including DP, CS, and Sacrifices, but not baserunning errors). If you factor his CS into his OBP, he’s at .358. If you factor his SB into his TB, but also take away a TB for each DP, his SLG is at .370. So, the question is – does Theriot’s .358 OBP and .370 SLG, make him enough of a better hitter over Cedeno (unaltered OBP/SLG of .344/.367; unaltered because it’s not worth the time to compute with only 1 DP, 3 SB, and 1 CS) to play him in the field at SS.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outs Made
I defer to you on these matters, but “the most outs made” is a counting stat while I was talking about “not making outs” in terms of rate. Factoring in all you mention surely deflates his rate of not making outs, I agree.
I never brought up Cedeno, but since you mention him: I did not and do not trust that Cedeno is better than he was as a hitter in 2006, however, I thought that his great start this year and his superior defensive skills at least merited a sustained look. I’m not sure he’d be better than Theriot, but I think he should have been given the chance to do so and would have been thrilled if he did.
Regarding the CS’s - which I don’t dispute removes value from his OBP - no one seems to have factored in what Lou said about the green light and running early in the season. When Theriot and others were getting thrown out left and right and guys were attempting wholesale steals of third back in April/early May, Lou said he was doing this for a reason beyond just advancing to the next base, and he was willing and expecting to suffer some CS’s (and lost on-baseness). He wanted to get into pitchers’ heads, change the way they pitched from the stretch, change their pitch selection based on the threat, basically, put the pressure on them to deal with a running opponent. After a few weeks of establishing that the Cubs were a running team, I’m pretty sure the CS rate dropped (I could be wrong, but attempts declined anyway). This was a managerial strategy that Theriot had a large part in carrying out (especially with Soriano’s lame leg), and he’s wearing the results of it in his individual stats. Not saying it was worth it, but thought people should be aware of it if they aren’t already.
''Listen, losing Soriano is no box of chocolates.'' ~Lou Piniella
by JohnM on Jun 23, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point RE the CS
and one that may end up confirmed as we watch the season progress – 7/5 SB/CS in March/April, 2/3 May and 4/0 in June.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not going to reel out
Sabermath, Elias, Hell Danny Scherdian line, The Cubs are winning that is my point, Cardinals won with an average SS that is my point. My support is 48-28 and he is not costing us 18 games.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 23, 2008 6:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes but
that point is completely irrelevant. That’s what I’m saying. as I said, the debate is not whether we are winning with theriot, it is if theriot is good. That we are winning does not provide anything to this debate. If you wanted to give a random statement in the midst of a debate on theriot’s worth, then nevermind. But if you are trying to prove that theriot has worth using your statement, you are being illogical.
And BTW I said proof. A lot of people assume I want “sabermath”. Seriously if you can find a realistic way to prove to me without using stats that theriot is good, I’ll accept that too. Seriously. As long as it makes sense and is reliable any method works. The problem is, you have not given me any proof. That’s all I want, sabermath or not.
And BTW I don’t think anyone has said we’ve lost 18 games because of Theriot. Please read posts before you respond. If you had read mine, all I said was that your statement did not provide proof. I don’t care if you reel out “sabermath”, just don’t use illogical statements to back up debates.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My mistake on games.
Meant to say runs in my haste.
Just don’t call me out on “my opinion” on whether Theriot is good, average or “sucks”. My opinion is he is average comparably to Eckstien. My proof for you, which for some reason I have to explain to you comes from playing in college, going to Sarasota FLA. in 1976 to try out for the Royals ( when they had there short lived Baseball Academy, and obviously not good enough to play big league ball ) and coaching 13-15 year olds. It is a feel or an intangible that a player has, how he fits into a team. He doesn’t have to have the “numbers”. Take for an example of Paul Blair and Mark Belanger of the great teams of the Orioles in 1969 to 1971, offensively they were well below average especially Belanger, however they were the right players for that team, they fit into the Oriole way. I believe Theriot fits the same way, he is right for this team. This is my opinion, my gut feel from my experience from playing and coaching baseball.
Now if you want to argue that, go ahead. Then this becomes who argues better, who “logically” argues better.
My take from your posts is you are always right. Just remember baseball is not all concrete, explain Felix Hernandez hitting a grand slam off of Santana last night? No logic to that. But I probably spoke to soon didn’t I ?
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 24, 2008 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um.
You do realize that Mark Belanger may well have been the greatest defensive shortstop of the postwar error, right? At that point, it almost doesn’t matter if you can hit.
Ryan Theriot… is not potentially the greatest defensive shortstop ever.
by cwyers on Jun 24, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um,
Yes I do or I wouldn’t have mentioned him. Goodness I watched the “Blade” live in Baltimore I knew his game. I understand Theriot is an average SS, Theriot as an offensive player is light years ahead of what Belanger was. Ted Lilly could out hit Belanger.
Gracious, MY POINT IS THERIOT IS RIGHT FOR THIS TEAM RIGHT NOW, IMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 24, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sackings get a grip
Im one of the people posting things about theriot, saying he deserves respect for his clear offensive contributions to the team and his average style defense that clearly hasnt hurt the best team in baseball very significantly. As you say “people with more baseball knowledge then us” use these stupid stats, how about Lou Piniella, one of the best coaches in the game, what about Jim Hendry who deals players on a daily basis. Theriot is the man, he works hard and does his job very well in the offensive category ESPECIALLY late in the game. You sound like a stupid Sox fan that just finds things to hate. This is the worst post I have read since I have been a BCBer. If you don’t like him, then fine, but honestly the most ignorant thing I have heard in a long time from any cubs fan. This was a disgrace of a post for BCB.
"God will squeeze really hard, but he will never choke you" - Carlos Zambrano
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 22, 2008 11:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well he's no Mario Mendoza
but he is a guy who works hard. Much as I am sympathetic to the Stats orientated I still have to recognize that there is more to team building than numbers. I know that most SabrMagicians don’t believe in Chemistry but I’ve come to the conclusion that it has its place even if it can’t be quantified. It seems that Theroit does add to the chemistry of the team. Would I be happier with ARod there, U Bettcha I would and so would Lou, but we ain’t got him and aren’t likely to get him. So we live with what we got. There are bigger fish to fry and other positions that need to be shored up.
YMMV
by bubbamike the one and only on Jun 22, 2008 11:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Legend of Ryan Theriot
It is disappointing that this post took exaggerated numbers to make the case against Theriot’s defense, since his defense is still bad. He turns the double play, but there are a ton of regular plays, ground balls hit to SS that he just does not get to.
More disappointing, to me, was the piling on of “You’re stupid” responses. Personally, I find understanding defensive statistics very difficult. Someone wanting to grapple with them should not be shouted down just because he stumbled across bad data to begin with.
I really don’t understand this constant chorus of “We’re winning, so don’t knock Theriot, ah, but, it’s ok to knock the rotation.” Do we think that if we found a way to shore up our middle IF, that might actually improve, not just one rotation spot, but all of them? And, by the way, “improving the middle IF,” doesn’t necessarily require dumping Ryan Theriot. The best way to improve our IF defense may be to move Theriot to 2B. Mark DeRosa, as much as I like him, is not immune from questions about our defense. This is a discussion we should be having, even if this post isn’t the right forum given where it has gone from here.
A few responses to the Legend of Ryan Theriot… “He does his job very well in the offensive category ESPECIALLY late in the game.” Here are Theriot’s numbers in innings 7-9 this year: .237/.326/.303. He has hit his one HR in the 8th inning.
What about the “sparkplug” myth? How does a guy who is in the top 2 on the team for both CS and DP get a “sparkplug” label? Getting caught stealing and grounding into double plays is precisely the opposite of sparking the offense – it is a momentum killer. I tend to think that the long battles Fukudome has with pitchers do more to get our other hitters going.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 12:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the thing is, Mark DeRosa is outhitting Theriot by a country mile.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 2:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I look at Theriot as a sunk cost.
We’re going to have to play him somewhere. If we have to play him, best to get him back to 2B. To that end, Mark DeRosa should have some trade value…
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
He still has minor league options. Or he can just sit on the bench.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fans consider him All-Star worthy
The Cubs made the legend of Theriot and we now have to live with it. Even if Lou was inclined to bench Theriot, doing so would be received in such a way as to make the outcry over DePodesta trading LoDuca for Brad Penny look tame. “Theriot is the heart and soul of this team,” etc. etc.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's clearly NOT All-Star worthy.
Who is doing that?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The people we're having this arguement with.
The people who are not just opposed, but actually offended – livid, really – that people who think that a bad defensive shortstop with a sub-100 OPS+ on the season may in fact be a bad baseball player.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
His statistics are bad. I'll grant you that.
Does that make him a “bad baseball player”? I maintain that that’s not the entire argument.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the stats are is a record of what occured on the field.
And as you’ve detailed yourself, even Hall Of Fame second basemen who routinely appear on national TV can misremember what occured on the field. He’s far from alone there.
When we try to measure Theriot – or any other player – with stats, we’re looking at a record of what he’s done on the field, and using that to estimate his true talent level. We can suppliment those stats with scouting observations if we like; there is an entire arguement having to do with scouting observations that says that Theriot is a bad defensive shortstop.
It’s more accurate to say something like “relative to the population of major league baseball players, Ryan Theriot is near replacement level” – obviously compared to any of US he’s a fine baseball player, and he’d ruthlessly destroy our Beer League pitching.
But your arguement isn’t even, so far as I can tell, that his stats are misrepresenting his true talent level. You seem to be arguing that there are other elements to performance for a baseball player more important that what he’s doing on the field. And I don’t get that.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We are simply stating that
if this argument is so sound, why is this team 20 games above .500 with the best record in baseball.
I have serious problems with a statement that he “sucks” without someone showing me how he has cost the Cubs enough games to threaten their chances of winning a WS.
That’s all. The numbers IMO, are not enough. I want to see a game where the Cubs had a lead, and Theriot made some horrible mistake and cost them the game.
I can show you where Neal Cotts dis this recently. I can show you where Bob Howry and Scott Eyre have done this on occasion.
If someone is going to tell me thst the team neede a run at some point and Theriot struck out and left RISP, then I would have to challenge you that DLee sucks, ARam sucks, Dero sucks, Soriano sucks…..
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So.
You want evidence that Theriot has cost the team games. Except you’ll rule that evidence as inadequate, because other players have cost us games as well.
Thanks for admitting that you’ll move the goal posts ahead of time – saves me the trouble of taking you seriously.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing you don't take me seriously anyway Cwyers...
kind of part of your charm.
I’ll accept your numbers for what they are…numbers. My point was I have yet to see this kid actually cost this team a game. I have seen others do so and I have yet to post a diary stating that they SUCK. Part of the game is failing. If Theriot fails at doing certain things, he is simply a baseball player. If they were all perfect, then yes, Theriot would SUCk because he is not a great SS. The key to this game is balance. When Theriot is not hitting or making some errors, others pick him up, and vice versa.
Forgive me but given the choice, I will go with the managerial decisions of Lou Piniella over those of Cwyers, Sackings, and Maddog.
Thanks though. As always, your comments are somewhat condescending and narrow.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look
I don’t think anyone is defending the word “sucks.” The question is – if we are going to talk about improving the ball club (which is what half the fanposts seem to be about), then middle IF defense may be the easiest place to make that improvement in both cost and ability to really affect the team.
As I said above, when you give teams 4 outs in an inning, the effect isn’t obvious. But we are worried about starters not getting deep into games. Why aren’t our starters doing that?
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if this argument is so sound, why is this team 20 games above .500 with the best record in baseball.
Could it be that the rest of this team is just that good? Seriously, your argument that the Cubs are playing well gives absolutely NOTHING to the argument.
That’s all. The numbers IMO, are not enough. I want to see a game where the Cubs had a lead, and Theriot made some horrible mistake and cost them the game.
This is bad logic too. Why do you have to see a costly error or a gold glove webgem to make judgments? These are only the two extremes of the game. These occurences are so rare, and the loss cannot ever be attributed to one teamate anyway. After the terrible play, can we blame the loss on one man? Who let the runners on that scored because the player’s error? Why couldnt the offense have scored more runs so that this error would not have cost them the game? You can’t even only blame Theriot directly for that.
A rare occurrence of an extreme is a lot less reliable than the everyday averages. A fielder who covers 2 steps distance has twice the range and a potential of twice the balls fielded than a fieder who covers 1 step. Just because both never make an error does not make them defensively equal. If someone goes .100, but always hits grounders near the 2nd base position, never striking out in big situations, this does not make him better than a .300 hitter.
The odd thing is, you see the flaw in your logic:
If someone is going to tell me thst the team neede a run at some point and Theriot struck out and left RISP, then I would have to challenge you that DLee sucks, ARam sucks, Dero sucks, Soriano sucks…..
This is exactly why we don’t concentrate on these extremes. D Lee’s average play of time has exceeded Theriots by a wide margin. So has everyone else’s that you list. You recognize the ill logic, and yet you still ask for a rare occurence that signifies nothing.
You’re argument thus is illogical. Your method of analyzing talent does not make sense.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet
my argument is that I have noticed nothing in his play that suggests that he is costing this team games. Their record suggests that while he may not be the best SS in the game (far from it in fact), he could not suck as hard as the poster says he does. Numbers or not, if sucks as bad as he does according to sackings and Co., then without Theriot, and perhaps Cedeno at SS, this team would be 25, 30 games above .500? I am not buying that he sucks as bad as they say.
My point is if the numbers are THAT bad for Theriot, then there must be something else to the kid because he remains the starting SS for the Cubs.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have noticed nothing in his play that suggests that he is costing this team games
So? If you look at how he has played on average, he has played worse than most other starting SS. If you are below average, you are costing the team since other teams are that difference in talent better than you in the SS position. Numbers aren’t some magical thing. We use these stats to see how players play on average, something that is basically impossible to do otherwise. The stats may “notice things” that we do not. Theriot is very likely to be subpar, based on how he has played on average. Just because you don’t notice things does not prove anything. There are a million things you probably don’t notice. This doesn’t mean they don’t exist.\
On average, Theriot is producing less overall than most other starting SS.
Numbers or not, if sucks as bad as he does according to sackings and Co., then without Theriot, and perhaps Cedeno at SS, this team would be 25, 30 games above .500?
maybe. who’s to say? More talent is more likely to bring success though.
My point is if the numbers are THAT bad for Theriot, then there must be something else to the kid because he remains the starting SS for the Cubs.
Lou acts on first impressions a lot. He isn’t perfect.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Show me where
Theriot actually cost this team the game…a team that is 20 games over .500 and in 1st place. Clearly his play can’t be that horrid if he is not costing this team their chances of running away with this division and winning a WS.
If you want me to point out others who must suck because they have left GW RBI’s on base or given up GW hits, I say DLee, ARam, DeRo, Soriano, Cotts, Howry, Eyre all suck. Their numbers may be better than Theriot but I know they have cost us a game or two so they suck.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
I say, that IMO, unless I see numerous games being lost att he hand of Theriot, he does not suck. He may not be great, but suck, he does not.
It most certainly DOES work that way if you are asking me. The numbers, just do not capture the entire player. That is how it works.
An unwillingness to even consider these other “intangibles” is narrow minded and does not make their point.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you know what Win Percentages are?
And I do consider intangibles. I just don’t think that they’re as important as how a player actually plays the game.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And judging by many of the comments by you and your cohort
you do not consider them to be of any importance.
So is the Cubs win percentage poor? I’m not sure where you are going with that vague statement.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no it does not wrok that way...
you are using a poor method of selective memory to determine talent. You miss out on the middle ground in you method. see above for more and hypothetical examples to prove your method is illogical.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay,
I can’t really invest more time into this. Theriot does not suck IMO. He is a serviceable SS and Lou has him out there because he feels similarly I assume.
The numbers must prove something but all I see them proving is that you people who are so obsessed with them, are missing a huge part of the game of baseball. Something that IMO, belongs at BrewCrewBall.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're giving off the sense
that you don’t even understand the use of stats and just see them as a random force. OBP is on base percentage. it measures how well a player gets on base. Thats what OBP proves. The numbers do prove something and they specifically define what they prove. when you understand them, you can understnad why they are useful. They provide information on the different facets of the game. It’s not like these numbers appear out of nowhere. They help us estimate the talent of a player.
Numbers are created from the game, not from thin air.
And I just don’t understand the “missing baseball” argument. I like baseball and have emotions. That’s right, I’m not a robot. I’m not obsessed with them. I use them to measure talent because I understand that they are currently the best way to analyze talent. In arguments, I use them because they can help measure talent.
As I said, your method to analyze talent makes no sense. I hope you can at least see that. Stats do because they take in the most information and don’t use selective memory.
But really, can you admit your way of analyzing talent does not make sense at least? Even if you don’t want to use stats, I just don’t want anyone judging players through your selective method.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To answer your question
yes I know what OBP is. Tell me, why is his .387 so bad?
This is what I don;t understand about the whole Theriot sucks argument. Defensively he is not stellar. I happen to think that his offense has been worth it. I stated before I think it is a game of balance. Balance of offense and defense. Balance of players in slumps and players who are hot. Balance of relievers picking up starters…and so on.
No I will not admit that my feeling on a players value is worthless or senseless or whatever you think it is. Not sure why I would admit this.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you make it sound like
you don’t know where OBP comes from, taht it’s just a number. But there is a reason behind the number and there is a reason behind why we use it. It isn’t just a number. There’s always thought and reasoning to make sure stats are reliable and that they tell what they’re supposed to. I just used OBP as an example. Yes, Theriot’s overall OBP is excellent so far this year. (His other stats are bad enough to drag his overall worth to below average)
I’m wouldn’t ask you to admit your opinion on players is worthless. But I want you to admit that the method you described to evaluate players (giving examples of terrible plays and amazing plays) is just a terrible method. I’ll explain again if you don’t understand why this specific method does not work.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose if asked to describe a player's entire worth
no.
But to give you a reason begind the way I look at a ballplayer is totally acceptable.
I do not just see a number. I know OBP and I know Theriot’s looks good to me. I am not one to write him off as a player and a solid contributor to this team becsause the numbers “predict” that he will hurt your team.
Baseball is a game that has to be played on gut instinct as well as statistics. Like pitching matchups. Plenty of times, a manager may choose not to switch to bat lefty righty because of a feeling he has about a player due up, or the feeling that one is “due”. In fact, the rntire theory of one being due is more based on gut than numbers.
Is this a wrong decision? Who’s to say? If the player proves him right, gut was the way to go. If not, the numbers come out. It is ALL based on opinions+ what actually takes place.
The number fraks seem to feel that the predictions of numbers is the only means to determine a players value. Same as they are trying to prove that I have been saying that the only true way is to go by your gut.
I’m not.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No you see
your belief is not right. The thing is, baseball is not played “on statistics”. Baseball is played on talent. Statistics are a measurement/estimate of talent. Statistics are not “predictions” at all. They are based exactly off what the player has previously done. They are used TO PREDICT, but are in no ways predictions. They are pure measurements of what has happened.
And I don’t see how your “gut instinct” argument works. Would I be correct in claiming that you say that managers will choose a player to play even though he has NEVER produced solely on gut instinct? This would not be the case. Obviously the player would not get a chance if he hadn’t produced before. Sure, a player who is in a slump may be given a “gut instinct” chance, but that is because he has shown he can produce when not in a slump. His overall numbers show he is still able to produce. Certainly, a manager would not send a 4 year old to the plate from “gut instinct”. There has to be some show of talent.
Is this a wrong decision? Who’s to say? If the player proves him right, gut was the way to go. If not, the numbers come out. It is ALL based on opinions+ what actually takes place.
The right way to go is to go with the probabilities. Of course, nothing is certain in baseball. You always have to play the probabilities because more often than not, you will succeed. While it can be disheartening when it does not work out and great when the wrong choice does work out, you still have to play the probabilities, because they are probabilities. They give you the most probable chance to succeed.
If you had 2 choices one with 75% success and one with 25% success, you would choose the 75% right? you wouldn’t go with your gut would you? That just doesn’t make sense. even if the 25% is right, eventually, that will even out and you will have a 75% success rate. You just don’t go with the gut instinct if it is wrong. If it is a 50/50 chance, then you go with you instinct. Numbers help you get these probabilities. They don;t always work out. But you know that in the end they will work out more likely than not.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
I really just don’t agree. I understand they are used to predict and often used to manage however, yes, a playeer might get a shot, under certain circumstances depending on the manager. That is why it comes down to managerial style.
Of course, more often than not, a manager will go with the probable outcome but as I have seen with Lou, sometimes he makes a decision that does NOT seem like the most number friendly thing to do.
I am not against this because part of this game IS gut instinct no matter what you say. If it wasn’t, we could just invent a robot who would calculate the stats and then manage based solely on that but that is not the case.
We hire managers because of their ability to manage to success. There is NO WAY, winning managers have done what they have done based solely on stats.
I agree, they are more often the method which is fine, I would support that but I will never agree that it either is, or should be that way 100% of the time.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and also
the 4 year old example is pretty ridiculous because there would never be that circumstance in this game. However…rookies get a shot sometimes, in tight situations, perhaps against the odds.
If a player with no history of producing at this level never got his shot, then this would be one old ass league.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the 4 year old example
is a hyperbole to that disproves a statement. If a claim is made, all you need is one example that proves it flase to make the statement false. With the hyperbole, you can clearly see that acting only on gut instinct doesn’t make sense.
There’s also producing in the minors. A rookie will never get called up if he does not produce in the first place.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Different levels ecbc
if every player produced at the major league level as they did in th eminors, we would have our CF for years to come.
Pie is actually a great example of why stats don’t mean everything in predicting a players production.
As I stated before. Gut instinct is not the only factor in judging a player and I don’t believe I ever said that. It most certainly does play a role though IMO.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why in the world is Pie a "great example"?
We don’t know how Pie’s story will turn out. Ryne Sandberg struggled worse than Pie and for longer when he first came up.
by DGU on Jun 24, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because use these brilliant stats
to determine what type of success the kid will have at the major league level and boom…he should be tearing it up in the majors.
Instead, all he has done is struggle. My point is numbers do not tell us everything.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Consider this
What if Theriot doesn’t get to a couple balls in a game that another SS could have gotten to. No runs score, so it doesn’t hurt the team right? What if the starting pitcher has to throw 10 or 20 or even more pitches than he normally would, causing Lou to have to go to the bullpen early. Relievers get overworked and get knocked around in subsequent games, which causes the team to lose.
Theriot would have contributed to these losses in some way, if only a little bit. The more frequently he doesn’t make a play he should have, the more he contributes. There is a post every day it seems about the overwork of our relievers. Ryan Theriot’s defense is in some way making a contribution to this overuse.
Also, its not a good is idea to be a jerk towards someone who obviously knows more about defensive metrics than both of us combined. I you do decide to do that, however, don’t be surprised if the reply is a little condescending.
by Tate491 on Jun 23, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I suppose.
I have simply sen far more obvious damage done to this team by other members and yet the diary is “Theriot sucks”.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes but
does that major dmamge occur as frequently as Theriot has missed ground balls up the middle that most Shortstops get to? (no)
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not with ground balls up the middle
but how about the missed fly balls by Soriano, or poor starts by Lilly and Marquis?
Why don’t they “suck”?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
compared to
most players of their position, ON AVERAGE, they perform better than the other players of their postion overall. On average they are better. On average, Theriot is worse. Oh, except for Marquis…. he does suck. A lot.
Its all about the average, not the extremes.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay,
so why is Theriot such a gaping hole in this team if there are other who suck a lot? I just don;t see him losing as many games a poor starts by Marquis, or even Lilly during his horrid start.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's all relative
relative to the average SS theriot loses more games. Relative to ther average starter, Lilly has won more. You can’t compare Theriot to a pitcher because they have different roles. All pitchers will have bad innings and Lilly has less. His role is to pitch and he pitches better than most. Theriot’s role is to play SS and he does worse than most.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marquis is not good at pitching,
but I guess today is Theriot’s lucky day. Don’t worry I’m sure there will be a similar Marquis sucks post soon enough. But, you improve where you can and I think it is easier to replace Theriot with someone in house because of his smaller contract than Marquis.
by Tate491 on Jun 23, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was also
a fanpost a few days back, quoting this article, which cites Theriot being 3rd in the SS All-Star voting.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so Lou should base his decision
on the response of the fans. I trust that Lou is a better manager than that.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you don't trust him to field the best team he has available?
by Arbusto on Jun 23, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Theriot is probably the best option we have.
I do agree that he is a below average SS defensively and it is a fact that his offense is trending downwards.
I think Sweet Lou is doing a good job. I love lou, really. He’s helped turn the team around.
I also think that getting a better than average SS would make the team better.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
And so was Dusty. Dusty was right and the fans are wrong. He was a good manager because if you ask him, he’s a good manager. This “trust piniella” stuff is just as illogical as the other stuff. It’s especially annoying when those who say “tust piniella” talk about how Lou overuses Marmol…
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take some time to read before smart assing?
I said throughout that diary, that I trust Lou for almost eveything I just wasn’t sure he worried as much as necessary about overusing Marmol.
I would say that the other stuff I trust him about is knowing when someone doesn’t “suck”.
This I certainly trust because he is the same manager who yanks players as soon as they stop producing.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't responding to you
but w/e. I was simply disproving the the “trust lou” logic. Obviously managers do NOT always do what’s best. It’s wrong to say “trust lou” to prove a point.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait you must be kidding...
I posted the Lou overuses Marmol diary. How could that not have been directed at me?
Anyway, this is over…I am tired of this topic. I will simply wait till Leon Durham returns. But I can appreciate your posts.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a lot of people
talk about marmol’s overuse. I do. I was responding to the statement made by the user i commented on. Tal1286. For future reference, I always am speaking directly to the person i comment on, not to anyone else. Except if I’m using a more global term like “people”. then I talk to EVERYONE that I describe, but I won’t just target one person behind their back.
BTW I had no idea that you started the diary. I actually rarely take note of who wrote the diary. (MDBNIU and KOW are often exceptions)
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough, my mistake.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record,
I have now come around to believe that Lou NEEDS to overuse Marmol so that crap like his late performances doesn’t occur!
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot: BA .310, OBP .387, Slugging, .368, 13 stolen bases, 43 runs, 22 RBI’s, 1 HR, 11 doubles, 1 triple, he leads the league in singles with 73, and at the same time leads in caught stealing with 8.
Derosa: BA .285, OBP .373, Slugging, .438, 3 stolen bases, 42 runs, 37 RBI’s, 8 HR, 13 doubles, 0 triples, leads the league in nothing bad or good.
Now, I have always been a known Theriot supporter and his BA, OBP and Runs scored can back me up on that, BUT yes you are somewhat right, because in my personal mind, RBI’s/Runs scored are the most important stat in baseball, WHY, because that is how you win. Derosa has the edge on RBIs significantly and a virtual tie in runs scored. I would take Derosa over Theriot despite my clear support for a much hated on Ryan Theriot. I LOVE EM BOTH, they are wearing CUBBIE BLUE, playing GREAT baseball (both are slumping a bit), and the CUBS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL, I have to stop arguing this case because it is useless these days
"God will squeeze really hard, but he will never choke you" - Carlos Zambrano
by SouthsideCUBSfan on Jun 23, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
RBI’s aren’t important because, just using logic, they are affected by too many factors outside of the hitter’s immediate control. Playing time, spot in the batting order, and the skill of other hitters in the lineup are factors that don’t have to do with the skill of the hitter, but still can contribute to more or less RBIs.
The same can be said of Runs scored. These stats don’t evaluate a players talent well.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LD%
Hardballtimes.com people. Or even Protrade.
27.4%
He’s a legit .300 hitter. When in the hell was the last time the cubs had that?!
Sure, he’s bad on defense. But, when in the hell have the Cubs had a good defensive shortstop?!
He’s cheap, he’s doing his job, enjoying the #2 spot in the lineup (well before E Pat came up). .385 is hard to complain about.
And, since everyone else is saying it, boo to your post. You could have said it better, without throwing in the “blah blah sucks” because he definitely doesn’t suck.
27.4% LD. That’s all.
by serbianking33 on Jun 23, 2008 1:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You're assuming that you can't have sampling issues with line drive rates.
That is not, in fact, true.
And then you’re asserting that a “legit .300 hitter” who can’t hit for extra bases and can’t play his position well defensively is valuable simply for the fact that he’s a “legit .300 hitter.”
And then you’re just actually wrong on top of it.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 2:33 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
what is LD%?
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Line Drives... got it.
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again
I guess this crap will never stop. Oh well, good thing some of you guys aren’t running the Cubs. I just know I’m not gonna waste anymore time debating this stuff, I’m into stats but this is just foolish and flawed. Some of you people just need to be quiet and watch the stinking game. I can’t even count how many times you guys been wrong about stuff this year, because your “stats” says it can’t happen. Oh well enjoy your worthless debate.
by cubsfan25 on Jun 23, 2008 3:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
...
Then don’t actually get involved, instead of bragging that you won’t get involved.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
see
I can say now you are completely clueless. You don’t understand stats. No one who understands stats says they are perfect. No one who understands stats has ever said “"stats" says it can’t happen.”. They are estimates, the best estimates we have. They show probability.
You don’t understand because you think we believe stats are perfect. It is necessary to give thought before you use stats to make sure you use them vcorrectly. I can say that you most likely would not think about it first if you ever quoted stats. Your whole belief is just wrong
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right now he's getting on base at
near a .400 clip. I don’t think now is the time to say he ‘sucks’. I don’t care if it’s for extra bases or not, that’s really not what the Cubs expect from him. Now if he fades into oblivion again during the second half, and his defense is obviously costing us games, then I could understand this post.
But while he is getting hits in whatever way possible and sporting a nice OBP, I don’t think now is the time for this thread. No one expects Theriot to be Derek Jeter, his expections are alittle lower than anyone in the starting lineup.
Theriot got his job because he is a “sparkplug” and he’s a “pesky” hitter. He is more than likely NOT a long term SS for the Cubs. Theriot will hit his .280 hit 3-4 HR’s, have his walks, steal his bases and just be “Theriot”. He’s not a glaring weakness IMO. We are just fine with him as our SS.
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Kayla Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
by Unique on Jun 23, 2008 3:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Okay, now here's the question.
At what point do you decide he’s fading? Because here is a graph of Ryan Theriot’s OPS, April 15th through today:
(The 15th, in case anyone was wondering, was chosen because it was the first point in the season at which his OPS got above .700 – the graph from the start of the season until then was rather ungainly.)
Again – at what point do you decide he’s fading?
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 3:47 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
You could make an argument that he's fading now
but at the same time you could make an argument on the fact that the Cubs can’t really do much better. Ronny Cedeno seemed like he has figured something out, but it also seemed like that for the most part in the beginning of 2006, and his OPS almost equals Theriot. There really isn’t a person on the roster than can surpass the numbers of Theriot, and I highly doubt that Cedeno will equal Theriot’s numbers if he had as many AB’s.
Then that begs to ask the question, should the Cubs acquire a SS via trade? Well, my answer is who is actually out there that is gonna surpass Theriot? Not many, IMO.
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Kayla Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
by Unique on Jun 23, 2008 4:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, I'm completely aware that Cedeno is a better shortstop
defensively. But really, I feel like you’re trading apples for oranges - if you swap Cedeno’s and Theriot’s roles. And I’m curious how you feel, cwyers, about potential shortstops on the market. I really don’t feel like any are avaliable. And if they are avaliable - and good—we will give up too much to get that particular person.
This is a championship caliber team. We can live with Ryan Theriot’s sucky defense and horrible slugging percentage, IMO.
Just sayin …
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Kayla Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
by Unique on Jun 23, 2008 4:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll be interested to see how this question gets answered, too,
because my impression is that one of the best SS available by trade right now is Ronny Cedeno. The difficulty here is that while a SS like Jed Lowrie or Chin-Lung Hu might be available, they don’t have the reputation to get Lou to move Theriot off of SS. You’d need to acquire an established veteran SS, probably one whose name gets mentioned with the phrase “gold glove.”
There have been Khalil Greene rumors – he’s kind of the anti-Theriot, doesn’t get on base, but hits with power and defends well, and that haircut should keep people from calling him “scrappy.” I’m sure Sabean would love to unload Vizquel, but he’s not hitting at all. It’s the lack of SS options which have me thinking Cedeno may have some surprising trade value.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seattle
will be having a “fire sale” pretty soon, andf I am thinking that Yuniesky Betancourt would look delightful in Cubbie Blue. Great range, great arm, very competetive, and pretty good upside, from my personal observations.
Not perfect, but he has some useful tools, and if you take him away from the losing atmospehere that prevails in Safeco currently, I think he is worth taking a chance on.
"I lof to hit de home ron!"
by Tekboy on Jun 23, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cedeno v. Theriot
Theriot has faded with regular playing time. Cedeno has faded with irregular playing time, mostly againt LHP who he has hit worse this year than RHP. There are a couple of explanations I can give for why Cedeno has faded that aren’t “He’s returning to his career norm,” because, after all, Cedeno’s career norm is a lot better than Theriot’s to begin with.
You highly doubt Cedeno will equal Theriot’s #s if given the chance. Why? Cedeno was once a top 100 prospect and both Jim Callis and Kevin Goldstein said pre-season that if Cedeno was given a fair chance he’d win the job and actually be the Cubs SS for years to come. So, the scouting reports have been and still are telling us Cedeno has more potential than Theriot.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What?
Please. I don’t care what Jim Callis and Kevin Goldstein said. Cedeno always starts out hot, and gets praised for it, and then falls off the face of the earth. We’ve given him the job before, and he had a chance to get the job from Izturis last year, but he just didn’t perform. He performs time after time in AAA, but when he gets a bundle of at-bats in the majors he seems to slump.
We are talking about Ronny freaking Cedeno. His career OPS is .638. His career OBP is .287. That is almost 800 PA.
Should he be given a chance at SS again, though? Yes. But not with the Cubs. He’s too much of a high risk failure. Now, do I think SS is a need for the Cubs? Yes. But it just isn’t a glaring need. Not in my opinion anyway.
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Kayla Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
by Unique on Jun 23, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Youi didn't factor in
the age difference. Breaking into the majors at 23 is different from breaking in at 27. And don’t forget Theriot’s fade last year and his current trend this year.
Really, Theriots had 2 good months. July of last year and April of this year. Therst have been mediocre at best, more often they are poor.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I cited Callis and Goldstein because they distill for us scouting opinions
from the broad range of views in the scouting community. In a fanpost that had gotten fairly anti-stats, I thought a reminder that scouts prefer Cedeno was noteworthy.
What does it hurt for the Cubs to give Cedeno a month? Our offense is good enough to swap even the worst version of Cedeno and the best version of Theriot and still score enough runs. And if Cedeno can’t cut it, well, Theriot is still here.
by DGU on Jun 23, 2008 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
TheRiot is not a player that should be measured on OPS
He’s not a power guy. Judge him on something more appropriate, OBP. I’ll take that .380+ OBP any day of the week on offence.
Defensively, I never compiled his numbers and compared him to other SS’s.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, but the problem is that Theriot bats for himself...
...and so he can’t entirely punt on hitting for extra bases and be valuable. OBP is only valuable because of its contributions to runs scoring; there are better measures of offense that give us a better picture of a player’s overall value.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"contributions to runs scoring"
Isn’t that what it’s all about? Last time I looked, the Cubs led the universe in runs scored.
And a better measure of a player like Theriot is OBP versus OPS. He isn’t a power guy.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're hurting me. Please stop.
The fact that he isn’t a power guy makes him less valuable. To ignore that by saying “he isn’t a power guy…” It’s circular and pointless. Sure, if you only judge a baseball player only on what they’re good at, they’re all spectacular. It’s meaningless.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well then I guess you'll let me know when there is a team
that has it’s 1 through 8 players all with high OPS.
You’re hurting yourself, it isn’t me. You have to come out from behind that silly little stats machine computer mumbo-jumbo crap and look at how a real team is constructed; which is a balance between batting average, power, speed and on-base.
Higher OBP and speed guys are needed as much as power guys.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
If a manager had the money and the luck to get a team built 1-8 around players with high OPS they would do it. Someone with high OBP and high slugging is undeniably better, and by extension, more valuable to a team, than someone without any power.
And of course the problem, again, is that Theriot’s OBP has been getting steadily worse as the season has gone on.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a vacuum, one can assemble the team of teams
Pick the greatest combination of players that would make the ‘27 Yankees blush, but that is not realistic.
On the gradual dropping OBP, how’s Kosuke’s OBP graph out over this first 11-12 weeks of the season? How about D-Lee, and how about Geo?
I guess its the approach taken on a particular player, in this instance TheRiot. Are there better SS’s? Of course. Can the Cubs acquire one without disrupting what they already have? I don’t know.
I just don’t like the comments that he sucks. He’s been integral to this team doing well. Right now he’s part of the solution and not a problem.
I’ll stand by my previous comment that it takes a combination of players to be successful. Its simply not reastic to expect an entire linup with 1.000+ OPS guys.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
I didn’t say it was possible.
I said that’s what you would strive for, if you could. You don’t NEED Speedy OBP Guys if you have choices. My original comment might have been a bit over the top.
And you’re right, everyone’s OBP has fallen. Soto’s has fallen, and it’s actually kinda worrisome when you actually look at the numbers. Lee’s has been up and down, Waaaay down in May, but back around .390 this month. Fukudome’s has fallen from .416 in April to the .380s in the past two months. Difference being that Lee and Fukudome have slightly longer histories of being successful that Theriot.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But what I'm saying is possible
It is possible (actually for the Cubs its quite probable) to assemble a good combination of speed, high BA, high OBP and really good power in one lineup. We’re witnessing it right now.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are arguing that
teh team can do well with Theriot. We are arguing Theriot is a below average SS. All your talk about the cubs having a good team does not provide anything about Theriot’s pros or cons (except maybe to show that Theriot isn’t so bad that he singlehandedly destroys an great ball club, but that’s said for basically any major leaguer)
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BOTH ARE NEEDED IN ONE PLAYER
you can’t operate solely on one. a .400 OBP isn’t so great when they only get walks.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And they have those players, two of them...
D-Lee and A-Ram. TheRiot cannot be expected to compete with these guys on OPS.
And to top it off TheRiot doesn’t only get walks. His BA isn’t .050, it’s .310 and that .387 OBP is nothing to take lightly.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
NO
both power and OBP are needed in ONE player. you need to overall have an acceptable mix of this. Theriot is not expected to compete with Lee or Ramy. He is expected to compete with the rest of the SS in the league, which he is not doing well enough at.
.387 is nothing to take lightly, neither is his SLG for the opposite reasons.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
YES, they have
TheRiot is NOT the player EXPECTED to have the high OPS. HE IS NOT that kind of player. Again, are there better options possible? Yes. But will the Cubs make the change? Unlikely.
I DO NOT EXPECT TheRiot to hit for power. What I do EXPECT from him is to bat over .285, have an OBP north of .360, be able to move runners over, bunt, hit behind a runner, H&R to the opposite field, steal bases and play a decent SS.
There are attributes like bunting, moving a runner over or hitting behind a runner that TheRiot can excel at…at times when the team has to MANUFACTURE runs, when the team ISN’T producing an output of 7-8 runs a game, where guys like TheRiot are valuable.
Like last season at US Commiscular, who was it with the suicide squeeze play? You gonna ask Soriano to do that? How ‘bout D-Lee or A-Ram? Uhmmmm, probably not. But TheRiot, yup there’s a candidate. Manufacturing runs. It’s needed to win the big prize.
If there’s one thing these stats-masters should have learned the past few years (coming from the South Side team of all places in 2005) was there is a place and time for power, and there’s a place and time for manufacturing runs. See the 11 post season wins in 2005 by the team at 35th and Shields for an example.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slugging is not power.
Slugging is extra base hits. It’s not too much to ask a guy with Theriot’s speed to have more than three doubles a month, is it? More triples than Geovany Soto? Seriously.
by cwyers on Jun 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
...
what if I tell you i want to be a US history teacher but don’t want to be EXPECTED to teach the civil war? Would you hire me? A baseball player has to do EVERY facet of the game well wnough so that overall at least he will be good when his attributes are ALL put together.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
YIKES
Lets ignore some stats and just focus on the one’s that make him look good??? Wow. SLG is important in evaluating a players offense. You can;t jsut ignore stats that evaluate a players talent level.
That’s how you get bad conclusions and that’s how you give people fuel to say “stats aren’t important”. You have to look at a players ability and hitting for power IS an ability.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
indeed
but how important? how much OBP would you trade for how much SLG? is a guy with a .450 OBP and a .350 SLG better or worse than a guy with a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG?
depends on what your team needs, doesn’t it? and what else he does well? and how much you have to pay him?
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a
.450 OBP/.350 SLG is always better than the other way around. But that’s irrelevant. That you ignore power, an important ability, is wrong. You have to factor in his poor power to measure his true ability. Would you say that a .400/.500 is the same as .400/.600? you don’t just ignore power numbers.
No it doesn’t depend on what you’re team needs. Better numbers are better numbers. But you should know that 1 point of OBP is worth more than 1 point of SLG.
And yes, if you want to see the true value of a player you have to factor in other facets of the game that he does well or doesn’t do well in.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ozzie smith
never had a single season with a SLG over .400.
scrub.
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Era adjustment.
Also, Ozzie Smith was one of the greatest defensive shortstops to ever live. Ryan Theriot is… not.
(If you’re wondering, Mark Belanger is the guy that makes me say Ozzie is “one of” and not “the.”)
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yes, if you want to see the true value of a player you have to factor in other facets of the game that he does well or doesn’t do well in.
And yes, if you want to see the true value of a player you have to factor in other facets of the game that he does well or doesn’t do well in.
And yes, if you want to see the true value of a player you have to factor in other facets of the game that he does well or doesn’t do well in.
And yes, if you want to see the true value of a player you have to factor in other facets of the game that he does well or doesn’t do well in.
by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Power isn't being ignored
TheRiot simply isn’t the guy for the power. You want power? See Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Edmonds and Soriano.
Switch “power” to “speed”. Is it fair to compare all these above players to TheRiot on SB’s? No, those players are not on the team for that. One of TheRiot’s attributes is his base running ability.
It’s amazing of the spewing of indifference (at best) towards this guy who only has a measly 86 hits on June 23rd and is batting .310 with an OBP of .387…amazing, utterly amazing.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Judge him on something more appropriate, OBP
With this, you have specifically asked to neglect his SLG, which depict his power. You are obviously ignoring THERIOTS POWER NUMBERS. Why are you pointing to anyone else? We are focusing on Theriot.
When measuring the overall worth of a player, you have to take into account ALL facets of skill. This includes power and this includes speed. You can't just ignore power because a player has no power. Having no power diminishes the value. Having a lot of power appreciates the value. Likewise having no on base ability or speed diminishes the value of a player. Having a lot greatens the value of the player.by ecbc on Jun 23, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So based on that
how do you rank A-Ram or Geo when it comes to speed?
How about Soriano’s ability to bunt, or D-Lee’s for that matter?
That’s part of “ALL facets”, right? This is where your argument and the others that state SLG-always falls apart. There are players that have certain skill sets that are on the team for those skill sets.
I would love to see these all power teams that you and your SLG-only buddies would assemble try to manufacture a run or two when it comes down to crunch time in the playoffs; when you’re facing a dominating pitcher. Because if you think you’re going to see pitching staffs like the ones in Pgh come October, you’re in for a rude awakening.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must be kidding blackhawk...
“One of TheRiot’s attributes is his base running ability.”
You do realize he has only stolen 13 bases, yet, has been caught stealing 8 times.
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 24, 2008 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On at least two of those CS
situations, I firmly believe it was a blown H&R call. There are times a straight steal is on and others it’s p/o a H&R.
When the batter doesn’t produce on the H&R (and by that I mean he doesn’t try to hit that particular pitch), the base runner is usually dead to rights, since his break off the bag isn’t on first pitchers’ motion to the plate.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's the biggest offencive stat he's here for on the team
TheRiot isn’t on the team for OPS or SLG, he’s there for BA and OBP. He isn’t a power guy so its unfair to measure him that way.
Ramirez can’t run let alone steal a few bases. Is he going to be knocked for that? No, he’s on the team as an OPS guy.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are you talking about?
Every player is on the team for their OVERALL contribution to the team. It is NOT just one facet like OBP. Why is it unfair to measure factor in his SLG? POWER IS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN PLAYERS OVERALL ABILITY. You can’t just ignore it. Yes, Aramis’ value is less than his value if he had more speed. He DOES get knocked down in value because he has less speed. However, his hitting and defense are easily able to make up for that. FOR EVERY SINGLE PLAYER YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER EVERY FACET OF THE GAME. Theriot can still be a good player if his other skills can make up for his lack in power. However, currently only his OBP is good. Most other aspects of his game just serve to hurt his value.
Let’s make an analogy. You own a window washing company. You want employees that can wash windows. However, you can only have 9 employees! So you decide to hire 3 cleaner-applying people 3 window wiping people, and 3 complete window drying people. They are all excellent at their respective job. You are proud and brag to a friend that you have the best window washing team ever. He comes and sees. You work in the city with the high lifts to clean the apartments and other highrise buildings. After every window the employees have to come down for the next one to do its job. Your friend says, “why, but it takes 3 people to wash one window! Isn’t that kind of a waste of time and money?” You say, “No they’re excellent employees. It’d be unfair to judge them by what they don’t do. They each do one specific job so well!” Instead of hiring 9 regular window washer people who could wash a window all by themselves, you are wasting time by having 3 people wash each window.
If you decide to have 3 OBP guys, 3 Power guys and 3 Defense guys on a team, do you really think that would work? Aramis, Lee, Soto, are all OBP, SLG, AND Defense guys. that is why they’re so good. They don’t ONLY hit for power or ONLY hit for average.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
perhaps
there is value to having the number one OBP SS in the league getting on base in front of lee and ramirez? maybe? just possibly?
by billywan on Jun 24, 2008 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes of course
But you aren’t understanding. Of course a high OBP has value. But if you can’t even dry the windows who cares how well you can apply the washer liquid? His other aspects, things like defense and power, are not high enough to make his overall value up to par. He’s below average.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think i understand
i just think i disagree.
look, here’s the middle ground: theriot’s range is lacking. as is his arm and his ability to hit for power.
he is the best OBP SS in the NL. one of the best SS AVG in the league. i give him some extra credit for having a useful inside out swing for a #2 hitter. and, if you’ll allow, an intangible point for what would seem to be a knack for drawing a walk or getting a key hit late in a couple of big comeback games this year.
we should also mention here his low salary.
take all of that, add it up and i’d say theriot is just about average, with a little nod towards above average because i like scrappy cubs.
is that fair?
by billywan on Jun 24, 2008 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can you say that
his stellar OBP overcomes his overall deficiencies though? with his OPS+ below 100 he has overall been average at best. and he has been a negative defensively. Best OBP does not make up for one of the worst if not THE worst defensive SS and his lack of power. His offense by itself cannot even be said to be clearly above average. It is around average with the likely error in stats pushing it barely above or barely below average. His defense is way below average, very unlikely to be average. There would have to be a lot of odd occurences for there to be so much error as to make him look average.
And about your intangibles. Here’ the problem I see in them. These intangibles that supposedly aren’t measured by stats are based on stats. his inside out swing? Let’s ask why that inside out swing is a good thing? Reasons: it may help him get base hits where pull hitters don’t, it may help him move up runners. But aren’t these reasons actually covered by stats. The fact that he gets more hits with his swing factors onto his BA and OBP. The result, the pluses of the swing are accounted for in these stats. the DPs that he doesn’t ground into that pull hitters do are not factored into his DPs. These are all measured in stats, they aren’t intangibles.
His “knack for drawing a walk or getting a key hit late in a couple of big comeback games this year.” is also represented in stats.” we can look at his stats in late innings or in high leverage or “clutch” situations. Things like bases loaded, 2outs in an inning, late innings, different counts. These numbers are all available. This is not an intangible either. (And I don’t even know if your statement is true that he does well in high leverage situations, but I could look it up)
Even the scrappy “intangible”. Thats not one either. We can ask, what does scrappiness do or in other words, what does always hustling with maximum effort do? Well, it can help you make plays on defense, it can help stretch singles into doubles, it can give you infield hits. Aren’t every single one of these factored into stats? Many of these intangibles really are capable of being measured in stats.
Really I can think of one thing that potentially cannot be measured by stats and that’s it. But none of the things you stated are truly intangibles.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, you win
you and all your fellow TheRiot haters, go put your stats package together (I looked at someonese site about that and it nearly made me yawn), go to Hendry and tell them how you’ve solved the Cubs SS crisis. Let me know how all that turns out.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're going to comment
put together a informative, well-structured post at least…
Do you truly understand what I’m saying or are you just writing me off because you have no argument against me? Just because Your points are disproven shouldn’t make you then just ignore what I wrote.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, you build this team
of high OPS guys 1-8… I want to see it. Show me one team that has that. No team has that.
Your analogy accounts for only one permissible permutation of inter-dependent events, totally different from a ball game.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's not just
high OPS. its having a team 1-8 with overall above average fielding, baserunning, and hitting. The players can all have deficiencies in one area. HOWEVER, their other attributes MUST be enough to replace that deficiency.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that would make sense
if his OBP graph didn’t mirror the OPS one.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see any OBP graph
and frankly I do not want to. There is simply too much put into the “stats” of many players and honestly I could care less as long as he finishes the season like he is doing now.
Lou knew TheRiot burned out late last year by his September crumble. Lou won’t let that happen this year and should make sure the kid is built better for the long haul.
Offencively I’d be happy to see Theriot finish the season with an OBP north of .360….
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it's stats you want...
Why doesn’t anyone pay attention to this? Theriot’s Scrappiness Factor is off the charts. Case closed people.
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
LOL....
And don’t forget, “he knows how to play the game”, and “he plays the game the right way”, whatever that means…
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 23, 2008 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think some folks on this site have WAY too much time on their hands
The Cubs have won 14 in a row at home and are in 1st place!
I think all the folks in the “basement of the science building” who talk about “metrics” and how someone is .345/.456/.234/.1234/.946/.8563. should be forced to live with Hank Steinbrenner in some sort of commune. WTF do ANY of those numbers mean in the long run?
by AlabamaCubFan on Jun 23, 2008 5:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
They show how a player performs.
This whole idea that advanced metrics are somehow “stupid” is absolutely ridiculous. You can’t learn everything about baseball simply by watching Theriot get crappy little BABIP hits all day, although you probably could learn something by watching him misplay balls and get thrown out at second.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Advanced metrics aren't "stupid".
However, the attitude of some - I’m not singling you out here, just to make it clear - that they are the ONLY way to know baseball or to analyze baseball, is what bothers me.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, they aren't the only way.
But I think you’ll agree with me on this, that you’ve watched Theriot all year and seen with your own eyes that his defense is certainly sub-par. I was simply using the stats to back up what I already thought, and in this case I turned out to be right.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, so we agree on something.
I ask you again, please point out ONE specific game that he has lost with his defense. I know of one—I wrote about it, can’t remember it off the top of my head.
If he’s going to play every day he ought to be a second baseman. But as long as the team is winning and he is hitting, Lou is going to run him out there at SS every day.
Why not talk about something that’s actually hurting the team that might actually change?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jun 23, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure there are fans of plenty of other teams that complain about their bad players...
...regardless of the odds of the team doing something about it. In fact, when the team’s ready to do something about it, it’s far less aggravating; it’s when the team won’t do anything about it that venting about it actually takes on therapeutic value.
As far as your standard – can you name one game that Geovany Soto won with his good defense? Probably not, and that’s not the point – we know that Soto is a good defender, and that that helps prevent the other team from scoring runs, and that that’s how you win baseball games.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So subpar now = "SUCKS!"
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any post that ends in Sucks! automatically loses points
Alll this alleged forward thinking with sabremetrics apparently saps a person’s command of basic language. If you’re going to take the time to write something like this, at least say something intelligent like “so and so costs the team runs” or so and so hurts the team”, which is really the point trying to be made, as opposed to junior high verbiage.
I’m convinced sabremetrics is the worst thing to hit baseball in the last 20 years. It’s turned a bunch of couch potatoes into smug so-called baseball experts. Yes, it has its uses, but it is the most overused and overrated device out there. As the saying goes, that’s why they still play the games, because at the end of the day, people like Eckstein end up on a World Series winner and Theriot plays for this year’s team with the best record, while teams like Oakland will perennially come in with winning records in second place. And while the response is usually saying things like that is horribly illogical, the thing that sabreheads miss is that this game has never claimed to be logical, but more human instead.
Santo Forever!
by BeerCub on Jun 23, 2008 7:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+F***ING A!
"Just because you've had enough/ doesn't mean you wanted too much." -Dean Young
by Kegler on Jun 23, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Junior high verbiage?
I’m glad the the two who feel the same way as you do really stepped it up a notch with the vocab, then.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You truly are an intellectual giant aren't you?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you review your title?
n/t
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you see the post by beercub, which I was responding to?
Maybe you should take a look at it, and then you’ll be able to realize why I used the phrase “junior high verbiage.” Or maybe you really are as stupid as your last few posts would lead me to believe, and in that case, just continue posting unrelated garbage.
by sackings108 on Jun 24, 2008 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm speaking strictly to your
well-articulated title, dumb-ass.
If you think I’m dumb enought to lead you to believe anything in this blog then I have a nifty real-estate deal for you.
Speaking of garbage, I’ll again refer you to your Jr. high title.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
The game is on the field not in an Ivy college Trig. class. Math doesn’t have intangibles, but stat freaks don’t understand that, has to be in front of them on paper.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Jun 23, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never claimed to be a stat freak.
I used SABR stats to back up what all of us can already see on the field, that Theriot is a bad fielder. Using stats to corroborate something doesn’t make me a stat freak, it just makes me an informed fan.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay,I read it
I don’t know if this will ever be seen, but I don’t see how it refutes my point about Oakland. I admit they have a winning record every year. If baseball were only about winning a division every so often and making a profit then Beane is perfect. But when the writer says “prove it” to Pags about his statement Oakland isn’t built to be a World Series winner, the obvious answer back is Pags will be wrong when they finally do win one under Beane, which of course hasn’t happened yet. I always thought the idea was to win the World Series, not always just come close.
Santo Forever!
by BeerCub on Jun 23, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, well, he's not good.
He’s a below average defender at a position where you’d take a horrible hitter that’s a plus-defender.
His SLG is dangerously close to his AVG, which means when he gets a hit, they’re singles.
BUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUT…How perfect is this guy in the 8 spot? Theriot is a master at turning the lineup over. His duck-snort hitting flail-at-the-bad-2-strike-pitch style is really suited for this spot in the lineup—an often overlooked spot. We don’t need a world beater in the 8th spot. We need a guy who will get our 1-5 hitters more opportunities with men on base.
"This is the kind of thing … that makes you want to see the Chicago Cubs team lose." Marty Brennaman
by Bildo1805 on Jun 23, 2008 8:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But that's the problem.
Those little ducksnorts only fall in sometimes, its all luck. Little BABIP hits like that don’t last, and if he’s been having a lot of them fall in, then that will trend down, and he wont be getting on base at all. Add that to his pathetic defense, and you’ve got a problem.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Theriot's not as bad as you think
Hey lets face it theriot is scrappy, doesnt have a strong arm, doesnt have that much range, and is a punch n judy hitter, but he gets the most out of his ability. For too long we have had undercachievers on this team, and im glad we have our own david ecksteing on our team. A guy like theriot who makes things happen is needed. Honestly if ronny cedeno can show that he can be consistent with the bat he might end up replacing theriot, cuz cedeno has better defensive ability and speed. But theriot has proved to be the more polished player right now. Theriot is the present, cedeno is the future cuz theriot already needs days off cuz of his back and the fact that he gets fatigued at the end of the year. Once cedeno gets better hendry can jettison theriot and fontenot who has even more holes in his game than theriot. Theriot is doing fine right now so lets keep him for now. Forget about the 18 runs he’s cost us, all he has to do is make the routine plays, get on base, and score runs. So dont worry cedeno will take his position next year whether we win it or not.
by daddygumption on Jun 23, 2008 10:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Did someone say Scrappy?
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jun 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take that .380+ OBP any day
especially when it goes along with a BA north of .300. His defence isn’t that bad.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 10:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Your arguement is well-thought-out and compelling.
You have made a thorough examination of the available evidence and presented it in a detailed fashion.
You are entirely persuasive.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever dude,
not all of us have all day to sit in front of our “spreadsheets” and examine the facts. We know baseball by what we watch and perhaps even our own time playing.
If that means nothing to you, who cares?
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I thought I was the intellectual giant...
But that argument of “whatever dude” totally won me over. Now I understand the true greatness of Ryan Theriot. And, by chance, are you referring to your own time playing? I’d love to hear more about it.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whatever dude,
is a term I choose to utilize when the person on the other end of a discussion is so caught up in their narrow minded opinions that expecting them to open their mind appears futile.
Got your attention didn’t it?
As for time playing ball no not me…nothing beyond childhood. I was speaking of some of the people here who have played ball beyond that…those whom I am sure you would have no problem telling that their experience means nothing compared to your SABRgenius.
Oh and thanks for your well rounded argument as well. I for one am going to petition to have Theriot removed from this team because of your points. I am not sure how you have spent this much of your life NOT on the Cubs payroll…knowing as much as you do and all.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well apparently I know more than you do,
And I find it pretty hypocritical for you to call me narrow minded for taking a statistical approach to the game, when you refuse to give any credence whatsoever to those stats, and have determined that the correct way to judge a player is what you see with your own eyes. Do you really consider yourself to be such an expert that you can simply watch Theriot scrap around, and decide he is good?
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry that "Yes I do" was to your comment.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right up there with "whatever dude"
Kinky, you sure know how to make a point. I applaud you.
by sackings108 on Jun 24, 2008 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's wrong with it Sack?
You asked if I am that much of an expert and I said yes.
If you are an expert, then I suppose I am too. Nothing wrong with that. You have proclaimed that you know how to use stats best and your method is the only way to judge a player and anyone else here who doesn’t buy this is stupid. So….your point has been made as well. I am applauding back atcha.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LSA
n/t
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know the earth by what I watch and what I experience
Apollo is my favorite God. He controls the sun with his chariot. Zeus is cool, too. While his lightning bolts scare me, I guess they do look pretty sweet. Hades is a douche tho. Like, why represent such a thing as death. What a downer. And what a loser to trick Persephone. Now we got winter. Gosh darn it. Of it wasn’t for him, we could play more baseball through the year!
But seriously, obviously people DO watch baseball and DON’T just “to sit in front of our "spreadsheets" and examine the facts”. You can’t just rate players on what you remember because those things will likely be rare occurrences. Spectacular plays, bad or good. You won’t be remembering every single second of any player’s year. Without remembering every play, you can’t make a good judgement on a player.
And then of course you have the proble of subjectivity of individual people. Opinion’s differ so why should I trust you? What if I said Theriot sucks. What would give you more credence over me or vice versa. We need proof.
This is why stats are used. They give us a close enough view of the overall picture. THere’s no problems of subjectivity because everything is defined. There is a LOT less information loss because everything is recorded. While there is some loss, it surely can’t be as much as you have. for example if I asked you on a random day in a random inning what happened, would you beable to recall it? There isn’t that kind of loss in information because stats use this information when they are computed.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, fine, you've come up with a compelling argument
TheRiot must go, OK, he must go. Now, what is your plan B? And it had better not be Cedeno. Because the same argument can be had on him as TheRiot.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cedeno's defense is much better.
See, because he has an arm that’s actually stronger than a wet noodle. He can actually make good throws to first base. Also, he was a top 100 prospect, and he has a real upside, unlike Theriot.
by sackings108 on Jun 24, 2008 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait.....
Theriot sucks? And Cedeno is so much better? Why didn’t you just say so?
Theriot needs to go! He is garbage!
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it can
I don’t see him with an OPS upwards of .900 any time soon. His fielding is on par with TheRiot, in fact fielding percentage is actually lower than TheRiot.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
age difference
better minor league numbers. a 23 year old breaking in the majors is different than a 27 breaking into the majors.Cedeno has played above the average talent at his age. Theriot has not.
And fielding percentage isn’t a very good stat to measure total defense with. Here’s one of those things about actually understanding stats. Let’s ask what does fielding percentage measure? It measures how much you don’t make errors on balls you have gotten to. What’s an error? It’s misplying a ball that you ahve gotten to with relative ease. Notice, you have to get to the ball first. If you never make it to the ball, it won’t even be ruled an error. So Fielding % doesn’t measure range, which is definitely a part of defense. Fielding percentage measures how well you handle balls once you reach them. It measures niether arm nor range Fielding percentage works for what it measures. The thing it measures, however, is NOT overall defense and is really quite a small part of defense since errors are rare.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL....come on give the guy a break though
He was making a general opinion maybe to not get nailed by 50 responses.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jun 23, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't you thknk the message is meant to antagonize?
I think the response has been earned. Just my opinion though Hammer.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do know I was replying to CWYERS right?
I agree it was a little antagonizing.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jun 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
I knew. Most of their argument is. Broad statement about those of us not obsessed with their numbers “not knowing anything about anything” etc.
Par for the course I guess.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets talk about BCB SHIRTS INSTEAD
GO CUBS
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jun 23, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My problem with Theriot bashing
Everyone who likes Theriot accepts the bashers points. We read it thoroughly and agree with your statements at times. However, most of the people who don’t like Ryan will not even read our posts, rip them apart and won’t allow for a civil argument even when we’re right. It’s not fun to debate a player like this and in fact I don’t appreciate the few of you who feel they need to talk down to us, make us feel stupid and so forth over the fact that you don’t like Ryan Theriot or care for anyone who disagrees with you.
by ak123 on Jun 23, 2008 11:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no problem with you liking Theriot,
as I understand that the conclusions we draw are, for the most part, opinions. It’s just that the argument that Theriot is valuable because of his “intangibles” and “scrappiness” holds little weight in the face of actual, statistical proof of how bad he is. But if you can offer a convincing argument of his worth, I’m all ears, and I’m sure my fellow Theriot basher’s will be glad to listen as well.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny thing is I am not a Theriot "liker" myself....
I am simply someone who cannot understand how you present these numbers and expect that the rest of us jump on your empty bandwagon and lobby for him to be cut from the team.
Your numbers exist, that’s fine. Until i see this guy ACTUALLY costing us games, I am fine with him at SS. To me, there are far bigger holes on this team.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt the bandwagon is so empty
When I quoted the article from another Cubs blog, and multiple posters here have agreed with the statistical approach I take. Also, if you re-read the original diary, I agreed with you that there are bigger holes, and I thought Hendry should go after a new starting pitcher first and foremost. And this whole idea that you, personally, have to see him cost a game is ridiculous. The stats prove that he is, indeed, costing us games, and just because you can’t see that doesn’t make it true.
by sackings108 on Jun 23, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Multiple as in 3-5.
In this community, that makes you the minority. But hey what is a minority right? Give me some numbers on why the minority isn’t really the minority…please.
What i am doing is disagreeing with you DESPITE YOUR BRILLIANT STATS. I can do so and ought not have to defend endlessly why. You are as much of a noone as I am here.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This wasn't targetted towards you
Although you created the topic this wasn’t directly to you. I’ve had other debates that go no where. It’s to the point I almost don’t even want to open up this discussion…but I did and made my point about it.
by ak123 on Jun 23, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My facts
The reason why Theriot has been valuable to the team is that as the #2 on the team he’s done an excellent job getting on base. His batting average is one of the top in the league and his walk total also is pretty good.
As for caught stealing. I believe he has been caught 8 times (it might be 7). Of those 8, 3 of those calls were bad calls. It’s no excuse but when the opposing team even says they caught a break, it was a mistake. Since he had been caught so many times, Lou stopped sending Theriot as often. That’s too bad. I won’t make excuses for him getting picked off or getting caught at third though.
Finally, if you look at a stat: 9th inning, 2 outs, Theriot at bat. I don’t think he’s ever recorded the third out when we’re behind. I know this is a crazy stat but I’m very certain he has an incredibly high OBP in that situation AND he’s been in that situation a lot. That helps us win games, not lose.
Regardless I want you to know I respect your opionion Sackings…it’s not you who annoys me on here. I can’t change your mind but please don’t try to tell me I’m stupid for not wanting to change my mine because that’s what other people on here try to do.
by ak123 on Jun 23, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But the only argument
that you’ll accept is one based on statistical analysis. I think the statistical analysis speaks for itself -Theriot is not a good player. However, the team still is 20 games over .500 and, ultimately, that’s the only stat that matters. Would the Cubs have a higher winning percentage if Cedeno were the starting SS? Maybe, but I’m not willing to take that risk because I haven’t seen any analysis to suggest to me convincingly that Cedeno would be superior. I believe in chemisty for a baseball team. That’s a big reason why the best team on paper doesn’t always win what they are supposed to.
For the record, I think Theiot is serviceable, but not irreplaceable. If the Cubs can improve in that position, such as if Rollins or Ramirez were made available, I think the Cubs should go all out for those guys.
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean to be snarky or anything
But can you name one time a team LOST when they were indisputably the best, because they didn’t have chemistry?
I’m honestly curious. I can’t think of one myself.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously I'm not the end all judge of all things
I wouldn’t claim to be…
But I would say that they lost because the Giants D-Line demolished the Patriots OLine.
Seemed like they had plenty of chemistry.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This year's Tigers, Indians, and Mets
are good examples, though the season’s not yet over.
I think a great example would also be the 2006 White Sox. A lot of people thought they were a better team in 2006 than they were in 2005. They added Anderson, Vazquez, and Thome and lost Rowand, Orlando Hernandez, and Everett. However, thier win totals went down from 99 to 90.
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Jeter..
Why doesn’t A-Rod play short? I don’t follow other teams like I do the Cubs. I’ve never heard a reason for this, other than the fact that Jeter was the incumbent SS when the Yankees aquired A-Rod.
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 23, 2008 11:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the only reason, at least at the time.
Since then, A-Rod has bulked up to play third and to bolster his power numbers, and so right this moment I’m not sure he could move back to shortstop.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He could play SS for us...
but we’d have to leave him off the post-season roster…he’d kill us.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 23, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A-Rod, career postseason numbers:
.279/.361/.483
Okay, so those aren’t fantastic for a guy with A-Rod’s career numbers overall, but I think we can live with a shortstop hitting with an .844 OPS in the playoffs. A lot of people around here seem to think we can get by on a lot less.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeter's the Prima Donna, Not A-Rod
Ok, not really, but Jeter wouldn’t slide over for a better SS, and A-Rod made the sacrifice.
Kinda makes you wonder about all the bs that gets thrown ARod’s way while Jeter gets off scot-free all the time.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think
youd rather preserve the better player (AROD) at 3rd base. Also, with ARODs size its smarter than Jeter
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jun 23, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's a fair point
But I’m not sure ARod was as big as he is now 4 years ago when he got traded to NYC.
In any case, fair point. Especially if that was the reasoning behind it.
by tal1286 on Jun 23, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with this discussion is, and always has been...
...that people take criticism of Theriot very, very personally. Bob Brenly can say things like his “throw a dart in the dugout” comment and not stir up near as big a hornet’s nest as this.
People around here say negative things about a Cubs’ performance all the time. Compare the reaction to when people insisted that our left fielder was is defensively, compared to when people insist that our shortstop is bad defensively. People who demanded that our left fielder be benched for defense see no reason that our shortstop should be! It baffles me – people seem predisposed to like Theriot no matter what his play on the field is like.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why do you think it is taken so personal?
none of our reactions are of a personal nature, in that we feel offended by your statements.
What I respond to is the dramatic overstatement of anyone sucking so badkly when I do not agree, which is my right.
Not personal Cwyers. Talk about my mama and it’s personal.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think these reactions are HILARIOUS!
There are crazies on both sides. You’ve got the propellerheads on one side and the neanderthals on the other.
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This guy?
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 23, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
???
Not sure what this means.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure either
But there seems to be a lot of hullaballo about it.
Basically, I think the “stat guys” are all mad because everyone else doesn’t think Theriot is as crappy as they think he is and then there’s the other group who will only believe that Theriot is an All-Star calibur player. Personally, I think that only a small fraction of all Cub fans are in either camp, but they are adamant about the size and verocity of the opposite side.
I think most people think Theriot is a likeable guy and the near .400 OBP is reason enough to be on his side and root for him as a starter in the Cubs lineup. If Theriot’s numbers fall, I think his support among that crowd will as well. If the Cubs strart to lose, fans might want to see a change, but until that time, they won’t necessarily be up for this type of “rocking the boat”.
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't agree more.
I don;t think he is an all star by any means, trust me. Serviceable? Yes. Glad someone hears this. These other guys are drunk on numbers.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think
people are a little irrationally attracted to the scrappy player because they appreciate his hustle. fans appreciate a fan who appears to be going all out. they also enjoy the underdog story of a “kid making the most of his limited talent by putting his heart into it.” the scrappy baseball player is also the last of the professional athletes that a guy at home can look at and say “that could almost be me. i can identify with him.”
none of that is particularly rational. but it is one of the age old charms of the game. and people just tend to get a little upset when some spoil sport has to come along and say “THERIOT SUCKS!!!!” pretty much every poster here has admitted that theriot isn’t a great defensive shortstop. there aren’t too many heads in the sand on this one.
but if you can’t understand why people dislike having their scrappy overachiever attacked, well…
by billywan on Jun 23, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very astute as usual Cwyers
People are oddly defensive about Theriot. I think guys like him and Eckstein appeal to the everyman the same way – they’re like idealized versions of baseball players for white middle America. They appeal particularly to older fans’ sense of nostalgia and general sense of what a player should look like and play like – white, non-bulky athletic guys who love to get their jerseys dirty. They pay more attention to this player because of their attraction to him – platonic attraction of course – letting confirmation bias inflate that player’s status.
When there’s nothing compelling they do in the box scores (which is usually) they instead talk about how you simply can’t measure their influence in the clubhouse and on the field – their very presence wins games.
It’s a combination of man-crush, confirmation bias, and wishful thinking. I think that’s why people are more defensive about guys like him, they don’t really want to be challenged on something they can’t justify or maybe don’t even understand themselves.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
But
The league is littered with these types of guys and the Cubs have had their fair share of them. I don’t see much of an outcry for Fontenot to be starting anywhere and very few people seem all that concerned that E-Pat is starting in place of Murton with Soriano’s injury.
I’d be curious as to why you think black/latino middle America doesn’t support guys like Theriot. I haven’t seen any evidence of that.
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because no amount of confirmation bias can convince anyone Fontenot is good
Or maybe they have to hit .275 to be latched onto. Their ways are not known to me Jerry, I can’t speak for them completely here.
I’m sure Black and Latino middle America support guys like Theriot, don’t get me wrong. But the anointed as scrappy, intangible-filled, and brimming with hustle always seem to be white, with lots of articles glowing about their hustle, scrap and intangibles written by white sportswriters.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you are saying that there's a difference between
guys like Eckstien and Theriot and the other fodder.
I sort of think that’s the point of the pro-Theriot people as well. The guy’s OBP has been near .400 all year long and the Cubs are 20 games over .500. Is it really that impossible to think that Theriot’s tangibles and intangibles are, at least in some small way, positively impacting the Cubs winning %?
Formerly NO100
by jerry morales rules on Jun 23, 2008 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Possible?
Anything’s possible but I have yet to see any kind of statistical argument for the fact, beyond cherry-picked statistics.
There are areas where he excels (ok, one area – OBP) but the statistical argument is that it’s a net loss when you take the bigger picture into account.
I like Theriot. I cheer for Theriot when he comes to bat. I hoot and holler when he succeeds. But he isn’t nearly as good as the guy behind him on the depth chart, and is one of the worse shortstops in the majors.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
One area - OBP
Try reading “Money Ball”...
I’ll take a team loaded with high OBP guys and beat nearly any other opponent out there on a regular basis – all else being equal (defence, pitching etc).
As for him being such a shitty fielder, have at this. It’s sortable for kinds of fun numbers crunching.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
May be wrong, but I thought Moneyball was about taking advantage of errors made by participants in the market.
It just so happened that the market was undervaluing OBP when assessing baseball players.
Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager
by northsider on Jun 23, 2008 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I read Moneyball
I think you missed the point of Moneyball if you think that it was saying OBP was the only way to build a team.
I’ll take a team loaded with high OBP guys and beat nearly any other opponent out there on a regular basis – all else being equal (defence, pitching etc).
Right, that’s the contention people are making here – all else is not equal, his fielding is among the worst at his position in all of baseball, and although he gets on base a lot some of that is offset by his poor baserunning and complete lack of extra base power.
I agree that “Theriot Sucks” was unnecessarily inflammatory on the diary author’s part, but when you measure Theriot as an entire ballplayer he comes up short, no pun intended. He’s above average in one area – OBP – and below average in almost every other aspect of the game.
by Wreckard on Jun 23, 2008 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well...
now that this topic is pretty much dead…maybe we should inject some stats into it? everyone likes stats, right?
theriot OBP = .387(best amongst SS in the league. 23rd overall)
theriot AVG = .310(tied for 1st amongst SS, 16th best in the league)
theriot hits = 86(9th in NL)
theriot BB = 34 (3rd amongst SS)
theriot singles = 73 (1st in NL)
theriot at bats per SO = 10.7 (8th in NL)
theriot Runs Created = 39.2 (6th amongst SS)
so “below average in almost every other aspect of the game?” not entirely accurate.
by billywan on Jun 24, 2008 12:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but according to all these experts
none of what you just cited must count for anything.
It’s funny, all this time I’ve read all this feedback on TheRiot, about how he is such a lousy SS, but nowhere has there been a plan-B, other than the obligatory, “put Cedeno in there”.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 24, 2008 6:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Response
I haven’t read every response in this fanpost, so pardon me if I am a little redundant, but I’m happy to give a thought here.
I said above to Al that a little knowledge is the dangerous thing – not knowledge (or stats) in general. It seems to me that there is a tendency on both sides to judge Theriot by only a handful of, or even just one category.
All of the stats above reflect Theriot’s apparent talent at getting to first base. I call it “apparent” because his career #s leave room for caution. Theriot also has hustle and he works hard, reflected by an ability to run the bases well when he runs smartly and the ability to make most plays that are within his defensive range. If he keeps his hitting up, this skillset would make him an excellent (for the price) 2B.
Defensively, Theriot is not nearly as stretched at 2B as he is at SS. His arm can make all the plays there for one thing.
The question is – do his talents outweigh his defensive drawbacks at SS. I tend to think they do not, compared to what we might hope to get from Ronny Cedeno.
by DGU on Jun 24, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As DGU pointed out below, all your stats basically say the same thing
With the exception of AB/K (which doesn’t seem like an extremely useful stat to me) all of the stats you’ve listed here are all extensions of the same single dimension – his ability to get on base.
It’s like saying, “Not only is Randy Johnson the tallest pitcher in baseball, he’s also the least short! He also leads the league in his ability to get things off high shelves, and is second in the league in pants inseam.”
by Wreckard on Jun 24, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Runs Created is dependent on playing time.
You need to either use a rate stat or at least Runs Created Above Average.
by cwyers on Jun 24, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
WOW
I want you to go back and read all my comments about UNDERSTANDING STATS. This shows complete and utter misunderstanding. You put absolutely no thought into this. You cherry-picked. You are just so wrong it’s frustrating.
If you don’t want to understand stats, don’t use them at all. But listing this crap?? Its terrible.
Don’t use single number stats to prove a point. These kinds of stats are “fun” stats. 3000 hits? That’s a pretty cool achievement. 600 HR? Oooh big number. But don’t use these in a true assessment of a player. These single number stats don’t take account of playing time at all. Your hits,BB,singles, runs created don’t mean too much. They’re almost worthless to discuss. They’re a cool decoration and that’s basically it.
DON’T CHERRY PICK. DO NOT DO IT. DON’T. NO. BAD. You can’t just pick stats that go with your argument and ignore the others. If you find something out that disproves what you though, you don’t just throw it away. Just because you find the sun doesn’t revolve around the earth doesn’t mean that you should throw away your findings. Give ALL the available, reliable stats.
You haven’t even given a good stat about his defensive accomplishments, his power. You stuck to random stats that help Theriot. In using stats, you are trying to get an assessment of the player. In this case we are trying to get an assessment of Theriot’s OVERALL skill. You have not used the stats this way. Instead you have concentrated almost entirely on OBP. AVG, hits, BB, singles. They ALL figure into OBP. You haven’t provided any of the other aspects.
You show his rankings. Sometimes you switch to among SS. Sometimes it’s among league. This is so idiotic. Stick to one ranking. Just because it makes him look better to use one over another does not help and only serves to possibly misinform some person. Stats are meant to be objective. You have used them wrongly to represent your subjective take.
This is what I mean by not understanding stats. Sure you might know how they are computed, what they “measure”. But it’s clear you gave no thought as to what you were trying to show, what you were trying to prove and which stats would actually work. Just because you know ”# of singles” means the number of singles you hit so far in the season, doesn’t show you understand the stat. As you can see, there’s problems of playing time in the stat of ”# of singles”. But you listed it. You don’t understand what it means and you listed it as proof when really it isn’t much proof without other information.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are funny
i like your posts. they’re like lectures from a professor of a class i didn’t sign up for and am not particularly interested in taking. except the professor is kind of annoying, overly persistent, prone to hyperbole and did i mention annoying?
you get a boner over stats and trying to talk down to people who aren’t interested in them. WOW!
i like learning new things stats can teach me. i like learning new things stats can’t teach me. i like watching ryan theriot play. i like watching the cubs win.
my post was a cherry picking of stats that showed that theriot had some skills beyond OBP, however slight those skills may be. AVG and OBP while related are not actually the same skill set. minor point, sure, but one worth making i thought. runs created is not the same as OBP. and if you factor in playing time, his stats actually look better since the other SS in the league have more playing time than him.
and i didn’t put absolutely no thought into my post. i put about half a second into it.
don’t lecture people on the internet. DON’T. NO. BAD. NOT WITH CAPITAL LETTERS.
by billywan on Jun 24, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I like to fix idiocy with lectures. You used stats terribly and i tought you how wrong yuou are. If you don’t care about stats, don’t use them. It saves you from looking like an idiot.
by ecbc on Jun 25, 2008 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the gift that keeps on giving!
this is the best thread ever!
one of my favorite online events is the “you’re stupid and i’m smart” post that has words spelled wrong in it. classic.
thank you for saving me from looking like an idiot. although perhaps that time would be better spent on yourself?
best,
b
by billywan on Jun 27, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, not for me
It’s his ability to put down the bunt, move a runner over to 3rd with less than 2 outs, hit & run often and going the other way, getting on base in front of the big boppers, that’s what it is for me. I also believe his fielding is pretty good.
Is he the best SS offencively or defencively? No. Is he helping this team to the best RS-RA numbers in MLB? Yes. Is he helping his team having the best winning percentage in MLB? Yes.
It’s not that people are oddly defencively about him as much as truly defencive about someone stating he “sucks”. If this post were about the Cubs considering better, then maybe, just maybe, there would not be as much angst as there is at present.
The fact many do not counter-point a bunch of statistics doesn’t mean they don’t understand them, or better yet, the game itself. I know statistics…well, very well (in the high tech world) but I cannot use that power to overwhelm others and cut them down if they do not know what I state. Doing so brings up the saying, “statistics never lie, liars use statistics”.
The fact there are some here on this blog (statistics experts I’ll just reference them) that believe a .380 OBP and decent field play have no positive affect on a team with the best run differential and winning percentage in MLB are just blinding themselves with their own negative bias.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jun 23, 2008 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've said this before...
Theriot is not an everyday ML SS…he’s a second-baseman playing out of position. I can tolerate his defensive inadequacies as long as his OBP is over .360 or so and he stops getting caught stealing so much…getting on base more than 36% of the time is enough for me. I understand the other opinions you all have about his lack of power, but I’m just at peace with having him hit singles, walking, and scoring runs. Our alternative at SS offer no real upgrades, all things considered.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jun 23, 2008 12:51 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Obviously it's enough
for Lou too as he keeps putting Ryan out there.
by sue369 on Jun 23, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
WATER SUCKS
it really really sucks
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Jun 23, 2008 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Coach
he spit in the coo-coola.
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 23, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Statistics or not...
...here’s a point I think we can agree on – Ryan Theriot’s value as a starter is dependent on his ability to dump singles over the second baseman’s head.
That’s basically all there is to it. If he’s in the lineup everyday, he’s helping the team win if he’s getting on base and his primary means of getting on base is hitting singles. He’s quick enough to leg out enough infield hits to keep his batting average respectable and he’ll take some walks on top of that. He’s just not a very good shortstop, even if the total cost of his defense to the team is disputed, so he’s gotta hit and get on base to have value.
So then the question is, can he hit enough singles? I see nothing to indicate that Ryan Theriot is going to be a .300 hitter year in and year out, which is what he’d have to do to be a long-term solution at SS. That’s a hard thing to do consistently, and Theriot doesn’t have the same kind of bat control as, say, Luis Castillo nor does he have the bat speed of Howie Kendrick…both of those guys are good players (Castillo is fading but he was pretty good for years) whose value is dependent on batting average. Moreover, there’s nothing in his statistical record to indicate that Theriot has the ability to do that, to hit at least .300 and up consistently.
If he falls into a slump at the plate, which he’s done in the past several times, and that batting average and OBP fall, does Piniella have enough confidence to put Cedeno in the lineup? He stuck with Theriot all of last season even while Ronny was tearing up the PCL. Alternatively, would the front office look to acquire a SS, either this season or in the coming off-season?
Right now, Theriot has the skills to be a league-average second baseman, a slightly lesser version of Mark Grudzielanek, with less power but more speed. Starting him at shortstop has sufficed so far but I’d be stunned if he continues getting on base this well for the remainder of the season. He’d also have great value as a utility infielder. So, essentially, Theriot has his uses and can be a valuable part of a championship team but he’s miscast in his current role and, while he’s been adequate through June, I just hope that neither the manager nor the front office see him as a long-term solution at shortstop.
We sell spatulas...and that's all.
by LaddieRenfroe on Jun 23, 2008 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
Well said!
"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun
by Bump Bailey on Jun 23, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you guys know that 1 = .999 repeating?
Did he just say funky butt-loving?
by Louie on Jun 23, 2008 6:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I never really saw the proof of that. Do you wanna show me? I always wanted to see.
by ecbc on Jun 24, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure!
There are several proofs for it, but this one of the least confusing (for most people) proofs.
Here is a really great page that goes in to more detail about it.
Did he just say funky butt-loving?
by Louie on Jun 24, 2008 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nah that one don't work for me
cause you can just say that really, .333…. isn’t ever 1/3. It just approaches 1/3.
But the one i liked on wikipedia was:
c=.999…
10c-c=9
c=1
by ecbc on Jun 25, 2008 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my 2 cents
Assuming that the only alternative at SS is Ronny-after all, as was said above we’d all love to have Hanley or Reyes but that’s not going to happen, and it doesn’t appear that Fontenot or DeRosa is going to get move to SS anytime soon, and unfortunately, Luis Montanez just didn’t pan out like we hoped ;)—here are some points (statistical and otherwise.) I, admittedly, am a Theriot supporter/apologist, but I also like Ronny a great deal. But I don’t think he deserves a starting job at this point on this team.
1. Ronny’s RZR at SS this season is .826. Theriot’s is .820. Marginal improvement, even just this year. Last year, Theriot’s RZR was .856. When Ronny played fulltime in 06, his RZR was .823. Theriot may be below average defensively at SS, but Ronny is even further below average. We may not even have an actual SS on the roster, as a matter of fact.
2. Ronny’s fielding % is .955 at SS. Theriot’s, even with his recent streak of lousy plays and errors, is .970.
3. Win share % (which, someone correct me if I’m wrong, is the primary win share-related stat relevant when comparing players with vastly different playing time): Ronny’s is .441, Theriot’s is .457.
4. Part of our success this season offensively has had to do with plate discipline, getting on base, working the count, good situational hitting. Fukudome and Theriot are among the best examples of that type of ballplayer. I don’t think Ronny can replicate or improve on those areas of the game (at this moment in time) based on past and present production…286/355/376 are Theriot’s career #s. Ronny’s are 251/287()/351. His K/BB ratio has been better this year, but his production overall this year (275/347/367) is still eclipsed by Theriot’s in all categories, despite some people’s impressions to the contrary.
Even if some people think Theriot “sucks,” Lou and Hendry do not, and perhaps more importantly, there isn’t a replacement in the system who is a certified upgrade, statistically or in terms of intangibles. Theriot is not and is not likely to ever deserve the title “All-Star,” but he is a solid major league middle infielder, he’s the veteran starter on a team 20 games above .500, there doesn’t exist right now a clear upgrade positionally, and that’s the end of the story. so can we stop saying he sucks now?
by PrincetonCubs on Jun 23, 2008 6:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately its not that simple.
For two reasons.
1) BIS changes their zones from season to season; you can’t compare RZR numbers between years directly, or at least not with any precision. You need to look at RZR +/- the league average if you want to do that.
2) RZR ignores out of zone plays. You need to account for the difference in OOZ plays when comparing players.
This is why a lot of people prefer STATS, Inc. ZR – it’s more stable season-to-season and it includes OOZ plays.
by cwyers on Jun 23, 2008 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
and it appears that Ronny in 06 was just about at or slightly below league avg for RZR. doesn’t affect the stats from this season, though. as for OOZ plays, Theriot’s made 13 in ~600 innings, Ronny has made 2 in 83…that’s pretty close (multiplying out to about 14.33 OOZ plays in 600 hypothetical innings for Cedeno.)
the other stuff is pretty simple, though.
by PrincetonCubs on Jun 23, 2008 7:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
OH BTW EVERYONE...
THERIOT SUCKS! CEDENO IS MUCH BETTER THAN HIM….
AT STRIKING OUT WITH BASES LOADED AND NONE OUT!
Calm down.
by Kinky Reggae on Jun 24, 2008 10:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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