2008 Pre-Draft Discussion Diary

he has the Cubs taking Odorizzi. He writes ($$):

Scouting director Tim Wilken loves athletes, but many of the Cubs’ top targets are looking like they’ll be unavailable when the draft reaches them. So they may instead go with someone who has been a slow and steady riser, as the Cubs have been in on hard and heavy to see the last few starts by Illinois high school star Jake Odorizzi. He has the kind of velocity, command, and clean mechanics rarely seen from the cold-weather states. Odorizzi has been even better than ever down the stretch, consistently touching 95 mph with his fastball while showing a much-improved breaking ball. He’s not a hometown pick per se; Highland is actually only 35 miles from St. Louis. The Cubs passed on the best Midwest high school arm last year when they opted to take Josh Vitters over Jarrod Parker; they won’t let him go by this time.

Goldstein also had interesting things to say about Cole and Hewitt on Monday ($$). Cole has hit 100, but has troubling arm action and makeup issues. What Goldstein wrote about Hewitt was just fun, so I’ll quote that in full:

I have to confess, Anthony Hewitt is my favorite player in the draft. Not because he’s the best player, mind you, as he’s far from that. It’s because you can’t have a conversation with any scout, scouting director, or team official without Hewitt being proclaimed as quite possibly the messiah once again descending to earth… or an absolutely horrible baseball player. There’s seemingly no in between with Hewitt. It started a couple of weeks ago, when a scout threw a Bo Jackson body comp on him. Just to be clear, there are some teams that don’t even allow Bo Jackson body comps, as he was arguably the only player ever with 80 raw power, 80 speed, and an 80 arm. Then there’s the Hanley Ramirez player comp, the tale of the 500-plus foot home runs, the 4.15 running time to first while slipping out of the box and I’m pretty sure something about him turning water into wine. Then there’s the scouting director who, when I inquired as to his inability to hit the breaking ball, told me, “Breaking balls? Hell, he can’t hit anything.” Some say that no player has had a bigger gap between tools and skills in recent draft history, but there are a bunch of teams who can’t find any player they love in the second half of the first round who are deciding to simply gamble on a great athlete with a ton of ceiling, and Hewitt fits that bill perfectly.

I’m quoting a little liberally from a subscriber site, but I think the latter is the kind of quote that is likely to convince people to subscribe.

Had the Cubs taking Kelly. I just wish the Cubs one of these years, just once find a player like Hanley Ramirez or Jay Bruce, just once say in 7 years. I mean Vitters is hurt and who knows when he will return. But it is early with Vitters, it is just the Cubs have had really poor drafts when if comes to position players.

Kelly – The bat is concerning me. I think I might pass here.
Cole – Another pass for me. He looks like he needs some major work on that delivery.
Fields – A closer. Sorry, I’ll pass here too.
Odorizzi – I like him. Smooth delivery and looks like he could nicely bulk up.
Hewitt – I don’t know. Big possible upside but lots of questions. The Cubs have been burned here before.

The other one that intrigues me is Zach Collier.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports.jsp?content=collier

The Cubs also have pick #41. I’d hope for a big upside guy at either 19 or 41. Other than Vitters, last year’s draft was heavily college guys. I’d hope for a better mix this year.

looks like he’s out of the Marmol mold. Sits comfortably at 94 with the fastball, fair command but good command with the curve. Tight, hammer curve at 80.

Keith Law on ESPN just said the names he’s hearing connected with the Cubs are Kelly, Odorizzi and Brett Lawrie.

Of course, I’ve also heard that Lawrie won’t last to us, but he’s a name to consider if he drops. I’ve also heard there’s no way in the world he stays at catcher.

... I posted a main-page poll on this topic.

Fields is the only guy on the list that I have actually seen. He pitched against Miss State in Starkville. Fields could start his pro career at AA because of his college experience at Georgia. He’s got a lot of raw talent. For a college pitcher, he has good command of the curve ball. He needs to work on that more in the minors. I think he will be in the majors some time in 2009.

Field’s gets turned into a starter. I thought I read somewhere he might be, depending on the team.

Apparently the Rays long decision between Buster Posey, C, Florida State and Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS (GA) is over. They’re going with Beckham because Posey wants $12 million.

It’s not a bad decision—a lot of draft experts were saying it was a mistake to take Posey over Beckham in the first place, money aside. But most mock drafts have been made with the assumption that Posey would go to Tampa Bay at #1. This shakes things up a bit, unless Posey softens his money demands by tomorrow morning.

Now to answer your question: No. I do not believe there is any realistic chance that Posey slides all the way down to #19. But this does shake up the draft and someone else could fall.

I’ve read in a couple of places that the Cubs infatuation with Casey Kelly has been overstated, and that he may not be their choice, even if he’s on the board.

Two more names I’ve seen in mock drafts this morning.

Keith Law at ESPN has us taking Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU, a college reliever who throws 98 mph and Baseball America predicts Tim Melville, RHP, Wentzville Holt HS (MO).