Minor League Wrap--July 20
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 12:07 AM CDT
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PrintOr "How I learned to stop worrying and love the Shark."
Iowa Cubs
The I-Cubs shut down the Nashville Sounds, 2-1.
I officially give up. I am now ready to proclaim Jim Hendry, Tim Wilken and Oneri Fleita as geniuses. What they do makes no sense at all, but they seem to have just produced a top pitching prospect. Jeff Samardzija simply dominated the Nashville Sounds today. He pitched six innings and allowed one run on two hits and a walk. (The run scored on a single, stolen base, wild pitch and sac fly.) The Shark struck out nine Sounds. He was pulled after only 86 pitches, 53 of which were strikes.
I still don't understand him and neither does anyone else. But he's treating AAA hitters like a puppy treats an old shoe. I'm getting on board now and just ignoring all my doubts. It doesn't make sense, but nothing about Samardzija does.
Michael Wuertz pitched a perfect ninth for his first save.
The I-Cubs won despite managing only four hits. Iowa's two runs scored on solo home runs from Casey McGehee and Andres Torres. It was McGehee's eleventh home run of the year and Torres' tenth.
Tennessee Smokies
The Smokies beat the Huntsville Stars, 7-3.
Mark Holliman got his first win of the year with five shutout innings. Holliman allowed three hits and a walk. He struck out four.
Jose Ceda entered the game in the eighth inning to clean up the mess that Rocky Roquet had left on the bases. He allowed two inherited runners to score but then pitched two shutout innings for his seventh save for the Smokies. Ceda didn't allow a hit but walked two and struck out one.
Center fielder Sam Fuld was 2 for 4 with a walk and his third home run. Fuld scored twice and had three RBI.
Left fielder Jake Fox was 2 for 4 with his tenth home run. Fox scored twice and batted one in. First baseman Blake Lalli was 1 for 5 with a two-run home run. It was Lalli's second home run in AA.
Third baseman Josh Lansford was 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored.
Daytona Cubs
Daytona rode a five-run seventh inning to a 5-1 victory over the Sarasota Reds.
The D-Cubs pitching dominated the Reds batters, as they allowed only three hits and two walks. Starter Marco Carillo got the team off right with six innings of work, allowing only one run on two hits and a walk. Carillo struck out seven.
Reliever Todd Blackford picked up the win with two innings of relief. He allowed only a lone single while striking out two and walking no one. Blake Parker picked up his fifth save.
Catcher (yes, he's a catcher now) Robinson Chirinos hit a two-run home run in a 1 for 3 day. It was Chirinos' third of the season.
Peoria Chiefs
The Chiefs drove the Great Lakes Loons nutty with a 7-1 victory.
More great pitching today as Kevin Kreier picked up the win with by allowing only a single run on two hits in six innings. Kreier struck out one Loon and walked one.
Center fielder Jonathan Wyatt had a big day. Wyatt was 4 for 5 with a double and an RBI. Wyatt scored three times.
Third baseman Jovan Rosa was 2 for 4 with a double and two RBI. First baseman Rebel Ridling was 2 for 4 with three RBI.
Shortstop Nate Samson hit a double, walked twice and had a sacrifice bunt in four trips to the plate. He stole two bases, scored twice and had one RBI.
Boise Hawks
The Hawks beat the Everett Aqua Sox, 9-6.
Justin Bristow started and allowed two runs on three hits and a walk in four innings. Bristow struck out five.
Reliever Luke Sommer gave up the lead but then settled down to pick up the win. Sommer threw three innings and allowed one run on two hits. He struck out one and walked no one.
Center fielder Kurt Calvert was 3 for 4 with a double. He had two RBI and also walked once. Second baseman Josh Harrison was 2 for 5 with a double. Harrison scored twice and batted three runs in.
Left fielder Drew Rundle was 2 for 3 with a double and a triple. Rundle scored twice and had one RBI. He also walked once.
AZL Cubs
Took the day off because they were too excited to concentrate on the game with Alfonso Soriano joining the team tomorrow.
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Two things
If Samardzija keeps pitching like he has pitched, he will be the teams top pitching prospect.
Jovan Rosa is also climbing the ranks, and I wonder if he will get promoted by years end.
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Tamia London Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
I think Samardzija
is the team’s top pitching prospect already. It’s either him or Ceda.
If you go by last season’s BA rankings, Samardzija was our #4 pitching prospect behind Ceda, Gallagher and Veal. Gallagher is gone and he’s certainly passed Veal.
When you take into account that Samardzija is in AAA to Ceda in AA and he’s a starter compared to Ceda relieving, I’d give the nod to Ceda.
I suppose Cashner will fit in their somewhere, but I’d like to see him actually throw a pitch before including him in this discussion.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 1:49 AM CDT up reply actions
The problem with Samardzija is
being consistent. If he maintains this excellence for the remainder of the year, then, in my very own opinion will be the top (pitching) prospect.
My new life, my new world, and my beautiful daughter:
Tamia London Davis: Due date (8-11-08)!
Wow how exciting is that
btw nice subtitle…. maybe you should start doing that more often lol
"We have a pretty strong belief that we are going to win those types of games. It's our confidence. "--Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly
by Madison Cub Fan on Jul 21, 2008 12:33 AM CDT reply actions
Samardzija
was brilliant. Keep it up, we’ll see him in September. The I-cubs have quietly won 24 series in a row, or were even. That is unbelievable.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
How are they doing it?
There’s not a tremendous amount of talent on that team, is there?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
they've got a bunch of guys who are better than AAA players
in Hoffpauir, Dubois, Pie and whomever the flavor of the month bullpen piece we send down there (Cotts, Wuertz, Marshall)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 21, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Pie hasn't hit as well at AAA this year as he did last year...
... yet the team’s been doing better.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
right
but he’s not the only guy on the team, Hoff, Dubois, and all the pitching we’ve had shuffling in and out down there (Marshall, Hart, Wuertz, Gallagher, etc) are all probably too good for AAA, but we don’t have room for them on the ML roster at all times
and while Pie struggled initially upon being demoted he’s been fantastic over the last month or so
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 21, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions
The only explanation for the "Shark" that makes
any sense is the organization had him on some kind of pitch count last year at A ball and then this year at AA. I can imagine something like he was only allowed to throw his fastball when he had zero strikes on a batter (or he was allowed 5 per inning). This would make him learn to throw his other “lesser” pitches to try to get outs. Everyone knows he has an outstanding fastball yet to be a successful big league starter the organization knew he needed to work on his other pitches. So they implement a system like this b/c you know he would have reverted back to the fastball every time he got in trouble instead of learning to pitch. Furthermore, with a system like this they certainly can’t admit it or annonce it to anyone.
Upon his promotion each time they took the restriction off thus he could pitch better. I just hope he keeps it up!!!
A topic NOT related to Samardzija:
At the end of minor league spring training when rosters were being set, the Cubs were left to decide between Matt Craig and Brian Dopirak to be the firstbaseman at AA Tennessee. Matt Craig was selected, and Dopirak was sent packing. This is justifiable given Dopirak’s lack of success the past few years, but I’m a sentimental sort and didn’t like getting rid of our former future DH.
Now Dopirak is having a solid season in advanced A with the Toronto organization, putting up .293/.368/.536 with 21 HR and 70 RBI. Running his stats through an equivalency calculator, he theoretically would be batting .265/.334/.475 with 18 HR and 63 RBI at AA Tennessee. That’s not great, but it’s respectable and definitely a big step forward from where he was a season ago. And it would be the most HR in our system and second in RBI (to Jake Fox).
I’m just saying.
For any who are interested, MiLB.com has a recent interview with Dopirak.
Craig has been better than Dopirak though...
in choosing between two AA 1B in their mid-to-late-20s (Craig is two years older), they chose Craig over Dopirak. While Dopirak has been serviceable in A+ ball, Craig put up the following numbers in AA this year before being promoted to AAA: .333 AVG, .492 OBP, .511 SLG (1.003 OPS).
Dopirak is 24 and spending his third season in A+ ball. He has put up the following numbers in those three seasons in A+ ball: 670 OPS in 2005, .815 OPS in 2007, .874 OPS in 2008. Craig has done more at the AA level than Dopirak has done at the A+ level. And Craig can play both 3B and 1B.
by SouthernCub on Jul 21, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
true
I don’t want to suggest that Matt Craig hasn’t been good this year. It’s hard to argue against either player in my mind. Both have had good seasons. I only favor Dopirak due to his former promise. I don’t think that either Craig or Dopirak will ever see the inside of a 40-man roster, so that allows me to make the sentimental pick.
I'd favor Craig personally...
since Craig has been better than Dopirak at every level above A ball. Dopirak had that one great year a while back in A ball, but hasn’t panned out above that level. (I guess I’m not very sentimental!)
Dopirak was certainly the bigger prospect at one point (and did spend some time on the Cubs 40-man roster), but Craig has consistently been the better player.
But yeah, neither guy is very exciting. Dopirak has now spent three seasons in A+ ball (and has yet to break a .900 OPS there) and Craig has spent four seasons in AA ball.
Craig does have a suspension
for steroid use, although that was in 2005.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps not coincidentally...
Craig hasn’t approached 20 HR in a season since 2004. Although he has been progressively better as a hitter (.799 OPS in AA in 2005, .842 OPS in A+ in 2006, .930 OPS in AA in 2007, and 1.003 OPS in 2008). And the power dropoff has only been slight.
Just curious: do you know if it a steroid suspension or a “illegal substance” suspension? For a while (and possibly still today) baseball doesn’t disclose what substance the player actually tested positive for.
It was for
a “Performance-Enhancing Drug.” Could have been amphetamines, which have been banned in the minors for a while now. But it wasn’t a recreational drug.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's what I figured...
The ambiguous PED. Could be amphetamines, could be steroids, could be another banned PED that happens to be in a supplement (either intentional or unintentional). Either way, it looks like his performance has improved since then. Either he’s figured out how to hit while clean (unless it was an incidental positive test and not something he habitually did) or he’s found better stuff to take.
Officially admitting that talent assessment is an artform
Ironically what you said is why fans (meaning fanatics for short) don’t know that they are looking for, and why the Cubs have been contending since Hendry became associated with the club. He is not a god nor is he perfect but now coupled with Piniella & Co. they have the eye that separates them from most of the pack and good since La Russa & Co. might even have a better eye.
Samardzija has a competitive gift and talent to execute it. What most of you are not aware of is the actual scorecard the Cubs are using for Samardzija to ascend up the ranks. I am curious not of his statistics which again are an indicator as to how he is commanding his game but of his 2nd and 3rd pitch command. As most of you have seen it takes 3 commanding pitches to command in the big’s.
So how does Samardzija figure into 2008. Well in Piniella’s philosophy he likes to move a pitcher up to a long reliever/bullpen (Weaver philos) so they can learn how to manage game situations at this level and gain confidence in their stuff and the team behind them.
Deductive reasoning suggests that Samardzija’s next move before September 1st if that were to take place is contingent on one of two things happening; BTW I am looking at the Soto model where moving up a rookie late but one who can still be on the playoff roster as consideration:
1) An injury to the current five starters where Marshall moves up to starter
OR
2) Marquis is traded where again Marshall moves up
AND
Hill’s return is either derailed or remains stalled and Hart is moved down the pecking order.
It is my opinion that the order in immediate prospect is Hart, Hill, Samardzija (long reliever/swing) behind Marshall.
Now granted there is nothing like a live dominating arm to come into the league in August/September where advance scouting and experience by veterans are nill and they have to match talent against talent in game situations. So Samardzija has that advantage with his fastball, so why I would like to know about that 2nd and 3rd pitch.
This is where statistics do not offer you any insight.
The thing is I don’t think Piniella & Co. want to rely upon Marshall or Hill or Samardzija for until deeper into August. Taking a deeper look how the projected calendar lines up with any potential changes Just look at Marquis (#5) spot there are 11 starts remaining (2 skips). If the Cubs were to trade Marquis where he is projected to finish 10-8 (65 or so more IP), it would be logical to see it would be after the 7/27th start against FL where Marshall could come up into the rotation for 3 consecutive starts.
07/22--@AZ
07/27-FL
08/01-Pitt
08/06-Hou
08/13-@Atl
8/18—SKIP
From there an assessment could be made whether Marshall sticks with a skip in the rotation or Cubs recall Rich Hill who has regained his command or consider Samardzija.
8/23--WAS
8/28—PHIL
Here again is a decision point where the Cubs could recall Hill or Samardzija to the active roster and start them replacing Marshall in the rotation.
9/02--HOU
9/8—SKIP
The back to back potential of the starter could upset by starting one other of the three against Houston
9/13--@Hou
9/20-StL
9/25—@NYM
BTW I had held all along that Samardzija would have an impact on this team although I think the obvious is that Marquis gets traded after the 7/27 start to a team that wants his 160 next year (Cubs paying $3M) while Marshall gets 3 or 4 starts, punctuated by Hill and Samardzija down the stretch.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
And another thing about yesterdays game...
The one run that did score on the sac fly should never have happened because Shark had him picked off and in a rundown between second and third but the second basemen was too busy picking daisies to run over and take the throw to nail the runner. It was pretty darn exciting to see him pitch yesterday and it almost feels like he just elevates his game at will to the level of the competition. Hopefully that makes sense.
How about that Ridling kid?
He continues to tear impress as he goes 2-4 w/ 3 RBIs
by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jul 21, 2008 11:09 AM CDT reply actions
yeah his stats are solid-
Was he thought to be a prospect at all when he was drafted? I notice that he’s 24, so I guess he’d pretty much have to keep turning in as ridiculous a line as he did in Boise to really be much of one, but still there’s nothing wrong with a Hoffpauir-type to call up every once in a while when needed.
by Canseco's Roid Party on Jul 21, 2008 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
He's only 22
according to milb.com.
He’s a 25th round pick and a college senior, so yeah, no one thought he was much of a prospect or they would have drafted him long before that.
The Northwest League favors hitters, so the real test is how he does in Peoria, as the MWL favors pitching.
The other problem is that he’s a 1B/DH type, and those guys need to hit a lot (and I mean a lot) to make it to the major leagues. Ask Jake Fox, who can’t break in to the majors despite a good bat.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Ridling is 22.
Being in the Midwest League, he’s still behind agewise. If he plays well this last half-season in Peoria, he could start at Daytona and work his way up to AA at the age of 23. That’s not too bad. There’s not much blocking him at higher levels, so it seems like it’s up to him to push his way through the system.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Shark won't be starting this year
But I’m sure we’ll see a bit of him down the stretch. Excited about what he’s doing lately. If he becomes a good ML starter, his contract might turn out to be a good deal after all the second-guessing about the immediate major league contract signing, and large bonus to draw him to baseball.
by Canseco's Roid Party on Jul 21, 2008 11:20 AM CDT reply actions
I'd bet Samardzija
would get a major league start if the Cubs clinched a playoff spot early. Then he’d likely get a start in a meaningless game.
But you’re correct. Samardzija will probably pitch out of the pen for us in September, if not sooner.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Any chance you could do a Peoria vs. Kane Co.
preview before the game at Wrigley? I’m in Chicago and am excited to see this game- doesn’t look like a ton of top prospects on either roster, but hopefully Vitters will in fact be moved up in time for this. According to a post by Paul Thomas on Athletics Nation, it looks like the Kane Co. team is about the only one in the A’s system without a ton of prospects, but it should still be an interesting game and good chance to check out the system. I know, Peoria isn’t that far…but it’s Peoria, ha.
Who all else is planning on going out of the devoted “Josh77 Minor League Wrap” readers?
by Canseco's Roid Party on Jul 21, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure
I guess I could. It will be hard to know who all is going to play (and I know very little about the Athletics system below the local River Cats) but I could do a quick preview telling you about half a dozen players or so.
Josh Vitters’ brother Christian plays for the Cougars. I know that.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
FYI...
... I’ll be at the Peoria/Kane County game, so will post a firsthand report.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Ah! The name Vitters made me wonder if the two were related
But yes, a preview would be great, thanks! I could try and scrounge up info from someone on the A’s blog as it seems they LOVE to talk prospects (and who wouldn’t with their system).
by Canseco's Roid Party on Jul 21, 2008 2:50 PM CDT reply actions
Does anybody know
where we can watch a play by play of the AZL tonight w/ Soriano playing?
by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jul 21, 2008 3:02 PM CDT reply actions
I believe the game is already underway...
...and Soriano has already played and left. He went 0 for 3 with a walk, a strikeout and a run scored.
Nanika Ga Okoru!
I know Pawelek was mentioned yesterday
but has he become just a reliever? I thought I remembered him being drafted as a very promising starter. Wasn’t he supposed to be the left-handed Prior.(minus the injuries of course)
by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jul 21, 2008 3:26 PM CDT reply actions
Very different from Prior...
Pawelek was a first round pick (at #20), but he was a high school pitcher. Prior was a seasoned college pitcher. Prior was the hands-down top pitching prospect in his class (considered possibly the best pitching prospect ever, or at least since Roger Clemens). Pawelek was just a kid drafted on potential. There was never the same expectation for Pawelek as there was for Prior, who was expected to be in the MLB the year he was drafted (and was).
Pawelek has since had several injury problems and thus hasn’t pitched more than 61 innings in a season in his pro career. So in fact, about the only thing he has in common with Prior was the injuries (both of which developed after they were drafted).
In Boise
it’s not really all that telling who is starting and who is relieving. They have 16 pitchers on the roster and in order to get everyone some time on the mound, they usually limit the starters to two or three innings. Relievers are usually scheduled just like starters, with a few exceptions at the back end (John Muller, quite clearly, is being groomed as a reliever and gets all the save chances, for example.)
Don’t read too much into who’s starting and who’s relieving in Boise.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Could the Shark
just be one of those guys that gets stronger and stronger as the year goes on? Maybe. Afterall, I read a big thing about how he was not as felixble because he was still in football shape. He seems to be impressing lately. I dont think he plays at all this year unless the Cubs run away with it. Oh please do that—-thanks.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
The Shark
could be anything at this point.
He’s always had the “stuff” according to the scouts, but he didn’t know how to pitch and he needed a third pitch. It could be just that he’s getting the hang of pitching.
The other theory is that at the lower levels, they were mandating what pitches he was throwing so often the batters knew what was coming. At Iowa, they dropped that and just let him pitch. That’s just a theory, btw, I’ve got no independent confirmation from the Cubs that that was what was happening.
He is a competitive SOB, though, and that’s a good thing. Here’s what I wrote about him last October:
I would say the most promising thing about him is not his stuff, but his athleticism, his character and his drive to succeed. These are exactly the type of strengths that you want with someone with his primary weakness, which is his inexperience.
I stand by that.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh Timmers on Jul 21, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
LSA
If he really has “figured it all out”, that pick is going to look like genius.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
The pick, yes
But the contract really only looks passable. He got the contract of a sure-fire great prospect. If he’s figured it all out, that’s what he is.
by Brett Taylor on Jul 21, 2008 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions
The contract was because
the Cubs felt he was a sure fire prospect and they needed to throw money at him to convince him to not play football.
by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Jul 21, 2008 6:00 PM CDT reply actions
The Cubs overpaid...
...because these were the other players in the fifth round of the draft, and they wanted to make up for their lack of a pick in the second, third and fourth round.
Hmm
There are a bunch of interesting players taken in that round led by Chris Davis taken one pick earlier by the Rangers. Hector Ambriz, Chris Errecart, Shane Robinson & Cory VanAllen could all also make it to the majors. Well, those are the only ones that pop out at me just eyeballing the list ....
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 23, 2008 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions
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