Example: in 2003, after 101 games, the Cubs were one game under .500 (yes, that’s right, look it up!) at 50-51, and 5.5 games out of first place. The Astros were first, 56-46, and the Cardinals second, 52-49.

I refrain from making any solid predictions this early (and yes, it’s still early). However, I will say that the Cubs are currently playing .584 ball (59-42). If they continue that pace the rest of the year, they will go 36-25 in their last 61 games.

That’d be 95 wins. Will that be enough? Only time will tell.

Seriously. These “wins” your talking about are months away. At the rate of posted fanpost’s around here, this will be off the main page in 45 minutes. Let’s discuss the wins that we have RIGHT NOW. Speculating on wins we don’t have yet seems very silly to me.

My .02

Cubs play 26 of their next 39 games at home where they are playing over .750 ball. In addition Soriano has returned during this stretch where the Cub are 35-19 (.648) when he is in the lineup. These two team facts are related to the question of projecting the outcome.

The only issue that is key is the status of Wood’s finger. I wonder if it got infected, otherwise a blister will heal, he might have to call Alou for a Dominican remedy…..(REMEMBER). I also recall that someone said soaking their hand in a pickle jar was a remedy also, sniff sniff

Cubs also have Harden who even though has been hard luck a dominant starting pitcher should keep them at the pace they have been…..so I will state that they will play .650 + ball and win 26 out of 39 games…..giving them a 9/05 record of 85 wins at that point.

Then going down the stretch the Cubs play 15 of 21 on the road….finishing 12-9…..97 wins will win the division, 95 will mean the wild card or division playoff with the Brewers. Cardinals will also be there…..I had picked 99 wins at the break….

So in conclusion I am saying they win 27 out 30 and 13 out 21 or 40 out 61 down this stretch…..655 ball with Soriano and Harden.

we end up 90-72. How many years would we take 90 wins? Now I don’t think 90 is acceptable after the start we had this year, but 90 will probably win the wild card. The Brewers are 58-43, which means to get 91 wins they have to go 33-28 (54%), which is extremely doable. Now the Cubs I expect to win 22 of 32 (68.7%) at home which gets us to 81 wins; with 29 road games, every win over 12 (which puts us to 93 wins) means the Brewers have little room for error. Can we go 34-27 (55.7%)? I think it’s much more realistic to think we can get that 35 or 36 more so 96 wins is probably tops. For the Brewers to win 97, they have to play very well in August when they have only 10 home games and 6 of 17 road games on west coast. We have a good set of home games and off days to stay rested down the stretch. To me, we’ll boost our lead then it’s hang on. I’ll take Pinella over Yost down the stretch. I will never, ever be easy!

Counting wins like an accountant is the wrong way to speculate. When it comes to the last 60 games we’ll start to see if the Cubs have the ability to play in the clutch (a la 1998 & 2003 – playoff performance excluded) or if they wilt under the glare (see ‘69 & ‘04).

Counting wins IMO isn’t nearly as important as observing how the team responds to pressure situations. And we’ll certainly encounter them more frequently as September draws to a close.

This is partly why I think the sabermagicians can never fully capture the game with a statistical formula. Game-induced and playoff-race-induced stress makes ballplayers react in funny ways. Some shine and some choke.

Here’s to praying we’ll be better in the clutch than StL & Mil.

the answer would be one more than the 2nd place team.

Realistically, I like your first number. Right, you had 37 with 61 left, of course that was before last night’s win, so now it’s 36. They have 60 so that’d be 96 and would get them 30 games over; should do it with my preseason prediction of winning the division by 5 games.

Oh, BTW the team’s home record right now….. 38-12. That is a winning percentage close to the record-setting 1906 team. That teams ENTIRE season was .763 and they’re home percentage now is .760