of being a baseball fan is to never estimate anything. Never assume that a player will go to a certain thing just because media outlets (ESPN, FOX, etc.) are reporting it.

Yes, C.C Sabathia would help the Brewers, but I still think we are a better team than them. A starter isn’t exactly a NEED for them. But hey. If they wanna give up a blue-chip prospect for a rental player, fine, so be it. We can’t afford to give away our blue-chip prospects (Vitters, Soto).

I highly doubt he signs with the Brewers if he lands there, BTW.

Sabathia is a workhorse with an arsenal of filthy pitches. I’ve caught a few of his games on the tube over the years and am dutifully impressed. Coming to a new and weaker National League? I think he would post numbers even more eye-popping than what he has flashed the past couple of seasons. In fact he would stand excellent chance of very rapidly becoming THE best pitcher in the National League. An addition like that by the Brewers would be as HUGE as it gets. Especially with an ace like Ben Sheets also being in that rotation. The other benefit for the Brewers? Their bullpen gets better via the shift of Seth McClung.

about Johan.

considering CC was getting shelled the first quarter of the season.

And if anyone wants to put the cart before the horse don’t forget the awful playoff performance and the roughly 7 era in that period.

Sheets and CC on paper look impressive, but looking at the numbers, I’m not so sure. And don’t forget the shitty bullpen.

I’d say - ceteris paribus - 2-4 more wins. So you really have to think that both Chicago and St. Louis are due for some regression to make that trade.

Honestly though, if I were involved with the Brewers, I’d be working the phones trying to get my hands on Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay, or the like, rather than trying to get involved in rental players.

IF they rent him, I am sure Hendry will make him a great offer when the time comes. So, who would he replace on the Brewer’s staff? It is only the projected differences in the 10 or so starts he would make between his games and the games of whomever he replaces. There is no way to tell, the sabrematricians can make a good stab at it though. And remember, besides the little league bullpen the Brewers have, they still have to catch and pass TWO teams to win this thing. On the other hand, he would make a difference to the Cubs, only because whatever his value on the field over who he replaces would only ADD to our lead. Assuming, of course, he pitches the way he has been lately.

Obviously, you could compare Sabathia vs. the pitcher he’d be bumping out of the rotation, apparently McClung. From that you are estimating 2 – 4 wins more. That is a very fair estimate, however it doesn’t take into account the effect it will have on the bullpen.

My analysis of the Brewers has been that they are too one dimensional of a team to win for any extended period of time. Once Gallardo went down their rotation became mediocre, their bullpen looked to be mediocre, but that offense looked to be quite good. If you add Sabathia to the rotation, suddenly the SP goes from mediocre to pretty impressive with two aces. Ideally, a team, like the Cubs, have a solid offense, rotation, and bullpen. That way they can lean on any of those facets at a given time to try to win a game.

Certainly, adding Sabathia to start the season would lead to a lot more wins than adding him at the break. But don’t disregard the effect that this might have on the relievers. First, it’s most likely that McClung goes to the pen, which isn’t a world of difference, but it’s still likely to be an improvement. Now, Sabathia usually goes pretty deep into games, I believe at least 7 (I could be wrong). Going deep into games will obviously shorten up the bullpen which does a couple of things. 1. It can make the bullpen more effective over the second half with more rest. 2. Even though Sabathia may not be collecting the wins for his starts, a bullpen that only has to work 1 or 2 innings is more likely to keep the game in reach than one that has to work 3 or 4. So while Sabathia might only win 8, the team could win 12 of his 14 starts as a result of a shorter bullpen.

I don’t think he could make a bigger difference than 6 or 7 wins (and that would be a lot), but that’s certainly higher than 2 – 4, and it’s certainly enough to make a big difference in a pennant race. The Cubs are likely to still be the better team even if the Brewers land Sabathia, but if somebody big goes down for the Cubs, they could be overtaken.

Discussing the impact of the Cubs and the Brewer’s in the regular season is in my mind meaningless. The Cubs will make the playoffs – either a division winner or a wild card.

The Cubs will not play the Brewers in the 1st round (teams can’t play teams in their own division) so we are talking what will CC’s impact be in a best of 7 series for a trip to the World Series.

Our concern about CC should be limited to game 1 or 2 of the final playoff series.

Pitching match-ups:

Game 1 – Big Z vs. Sheets – Z likes the big games – advantage Cubs
Game 2 – Dempster vs. CC – advantage – Cubs if at home – Brewers if on the road.

Let’s hope we win the division.

The Brewers are going to lose Sheets at the end of the season.

They are 5 games out right now.

Why would they trade all of their prospects for a 2 month rental? By the end of the year, they will lose Sheets and Sabathia. I would expect them to go after someone like Greinke or Bedard much more than Sabathia.

If they were 5 games in first place, I might understand. But to mortgage their future for a 2 month rental when they will already lose Sheets at the end of the year? I would think they would only trade their top prospects for someone under control for a few years to replace Sheets.

The whole thing makes no sense.

It appears that CC is going to be traded and probably to Milwaukee. I then think it will create the market value and bring teams to the point of sellers and buyers.

As for Milwaukee the problem is they are not a complete team, though a troublesome team. They will compete with StL, FLA, and possibly LAD & NYM for the WC, but most likely StL and FLA. They are weakest in the bullpen and should be trading for a closer and set up.

Buyers: BOS, TB, MIL, CHC, PHL, LAA
Possible buyers: NYY, FLA, DET, MIN, AZ, OAK, LAD
Possible sellers: OAK, LAD, KC, TEX, SF
Sellers: CLE, CO, SEA, SD, TOR, PIT, HOU, CIN,

NON Part: CHW, STL, BAL

Except for OAK and LAD who might do both there are six strong buyers out there and eight motivated sellers.

This is why depending on the cost picking up a Burkett, Bedard, Harden or possible Oswalt or Grienke or Wolf or Cook or even a pick of Pitt like Gorzalany would be a smart move and just as strong as CC. I even think that the Yankees could move into the sellers market with either a Pettitt.

He is the name beyond the usual suspect of A.J. Burnett that I think bears watching. Does Los Angeles think they can stay in the race in the mega-weak NL West? Or would they be better served getting a handful of solid prospects for a free agent to be and pass the torch to Clayton Kershaw in the rotation?

Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno MIGHT get the attention of the Dodgers. Might.

could win that division as sub- .500 teams.

The Padres win a damn game (especially one over AZ) and they feel THEY ARE IN IT.

That’s almost - no, wait - it IS unreasonable, but that’s the mind-set here right now. They still want fannies in the Petco’s and seem to be willing to try to ‘compete.’

Strange freakin’ team.

Think about THAT for a minute

I KNEW IT

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3474824