41 games left, the glass is half full
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 8:57 AM CDT
46 comments
It seems to me the brewers don’t look like they are going to lose many games and with 41 games left in the season and the Cubs lead back to 4.5 games (5 in the lose column) I figured, just in case anyone is worried, it would be a good time to look at some numbers.
If the Cubs play .500 baseball the rest of the way (20-21) they would end up with 94 victories. Second highest in the post WWII era behind only the 1984 team. If that happened the brewers would have to go 24-16 to tie us for division lead. That would be playing .600 the rest of the way. The cardinals would have to go 26-12 the rest of the way to tie us, that’s .684 the rest of the way. If the Cubs play at their current pace they will be 25-16 the rest of the way and finish 99-63. The brewers would have to go 29-11 to tie us for the division lead. That is a .725 winning percentage. The cardinals would have to go 31-7 to catch us and that’s .816 winning percentage.
Here is how we have to go to match certain win totals
To reach 85 wins (last years win totals) we only need to go 11-30
To reach 90 wins we only need to go 16-25
To reach 95 wins we only need to go 21-20
To reach 100 wins we need to go 26-15
Lets also not forget that in our last 10 games against the brewers and cardinals we are 8-2 including 6-1 on the road.
I know the brew crew has been red hot, but so have we. I think it will very difficult for them to catch us especially if we keep play well on the road.
This is my first fan post so please be kind.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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We cannot take anything for granted.
Sure, it all looks great right now. But it did on August 15, 1969, too.
Just win, baby.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Aug 15, 2008 9:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Just have to recall that the Cubs were 32 over .500 at this time in '69
ended up winning 92 games and lost by 9 games. Last year the Rox won 22 straight to sneak (need a better word for the phantom touch of home plate).
I am merely looking one series at a time…..Cubs play the Marlins on the road (a contender) while the Brewers play LAD on the road also a contender. Cubs pit Zambrano, Marshall & Dempster against Johnson, Sanchez and Volstad while the Brewers give the ball to Parra, Suppan & Bush against LA’s Billingly, Lowe & Kershaw.
Winning this series would push the Cubs closer, that is all.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Aug 15, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The addition of the wild-card changes
the whole dynamic. In ’69 it was win it all or nothing. I doubt it if the Cubs would be passed by any of the other wild-card contending teams.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 15, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just afraid to start talking about this
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Aug 15, 2008 9:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't be...
curses, jinxs, and hecks aren’t real. Nothing we say or do on site is going to effect the play of the team.
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't underestimate this site
I still have a suspicion that Z shows up here now and then to lurk. Go drink some water Z!
by jcg996 on Aug 15, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if Big Z lurks
I still don’t believe in curses and whatnots. The closest I come to believing is that it can get in peoples heads and become a self fulfilling prophecy. If you hear it enough you’ll start believing it and then it happens.
and just in case Big Z is lurking, HELLO CARLOS :)
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your name is Merlin,
yet you don’t beleive in curses… hmmmm
by daily2b on Aug 15, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well OK,
you got me there.
Actually my name is Shawn, Merlin is my dog’s name. When I signed up I didn’t want to spend a lot time thinking of a clever username. I hate having numbers in my usernames like Shawn578
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a hell of a lot more than half full
Enjoying the ride…
Current temperature in hell: 45 degrees F - and falling!
by wnielsen on Aug 15, 2008 9:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Brewers have been red hot...
playing the Nationals and Padres. They have an easier schedule than us the rest of the way, but will have to play a few good teams along the way, like the red-hot Dodgers this weekend.
Point being, the Cubs are good no matter who they face, while the Brewers are decent against good competition, but not great. Back end of their rotation will keep them from playing well enough to catch the mighty Cubs!
Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 15, 2008 9:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
The Brewers have been winning but they’ve been playing sub .500 teams. I feel that the series against the Brewers in miller when we sweeped them was defining. They have to beat the best to win and they let us sweep them in their park. I’d like to see them play tough teams.
by cubsfaninatl on Aug 15, 2008 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When you look at the numbers,
you realize how hard it ts to catch a team in the latter part of the season. Usally, the team ahead gives the lead away as opposed the the team behind taking it away.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 15, 2008 9:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So true
and I don’t expect this years team, which is too deep, to let that happen.
Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 15, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
a good example is
last year. If the mets had played 500 ball down the strech the phillies would have not caught them.
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
When the Sox won in ’05, they almost gave up a double digit lead. You almost have to try to lose it to give up a lead that big late in the season.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 15, 2008 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man was I pulling for the Indians to reel them in...
…I think they lost a bunch of games to K.C. that killed their hopes though.
Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Aug 15, 2008 9:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean you were a Cub fan rooting
against the White Sox? How unique!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Aug 15, 2008 9:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
3/4 Record Comparisons (1984, 1989, 2008)
The 121-game is the approximate, not exact, 3/4 point of the season. 162 is not evenly divisible by 4.
1984
1st 40: 25-15
2nd 41: 21-20 (46-35)
3rd 40: 24-16 (70-51)
4th 40: 26-14 (96-65) 1 Rain Out
1989
1st 40: 22-18
2nd 41: 21-20 (43-38)
3rd 40: 28-12 (71-50)
4th 41: 22-19 (93-69)
2008
1st 40: 24-16
2nd 41: 25-16 (49-32)
3rd 40: 25-15 (74-47)
4th 41: ?
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Aug 15, 2008 9:44 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
WOW.
This team has been remarkable consistent.
Theriot, Fonty, and Johnson = The Scrappy Pyramid of Victory
by BrewCrew'sPrinceofDarkness on Aug 15, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big ups
for this post.
So basically, if the Cubs stay true to form, they’ll win 98 games this year. Nice.
*Synth intro to "Jump"*
by SouthsideCub on Aug 15, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anything can happen
Comfortable leads are never comfortable. Anything can happen.
Look at this year: The Astros have gone .800 in the last 20 games.
Look at last year: The Rockies had that unbelievable steak in September.
Honestly the only way we can guarantee post season is if we got 34-7 for rest of the season…just saying.
by ak123 on Aug 15, 2008 9:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree there are no guarantee
But considering if the Cubs do (heaven forbid) struggle down the stretch. Two teams would have to catch them, not just one. I didn’t post this as a way of saying it locked up or anything. I posted just show that despite how well the brewers are playing the Cubs are still in great shape.
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on Aug 15, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I look at it this way
The Brewers did well against the bottom feeding Nationals and Padres, giving them an 8 game win streak. The Cubs played the hot hitting Astros, and a tenacious Cardinals team who are still in it and went 4-2. All this while holding on to an 8-game road win streak, including a sweep of the Brewers in their own stadium.
by daeviant on Aug 15, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The critical thing to understand is that major-league pitchers don't appear to have the ability to prevent hits on balls in play. There are many possible reasons why this is the case, and I don't really have a concrete idea as to why it is.
But the one thing I do know is that it is the case.
--Voros McCracken
by nbt on Aug 15, 2008 10:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Is it just me?
Man, I keep worrying about the Cardinals not the Brewers. The Cardinals should be gone, but keep hanging around. I don’t know, I could stand losing the division on some level to the Brewers because they have talent, but I would HATE watching those overachievers from st. louis come in and ruin the party.
by graceunderpressure on Aug 15, 2008 11:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Cardinals are 9 back in the loss column
With 41 left to play for the Cubs, 38 left for the Cardinals. The Cards would have to catch fire while the Cubs totally collapsed.
by SuperContext on Aug 15, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't try to make me feel better with mathematics!
by graceunderpressure on Aug 15, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Relax
do as your signature says.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson
by tucsoncubsfan on Aug 15, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As You Know.........
my signature refers to my favorite cubbie of all time, it by no means reflects my ability to sustain composure under these conditions.
by graceunderpressure on Aug 15, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see no way the Cardinals catch the Cubs
And if they do, I’ll mitigate your disappointment by sending you one genuine U.S. dollar.
by Shanghai Badger on Aug 15, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for explaining.
Didn’t think of Mark.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson
by tucsoncubsfan on Aug 15, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ol' number 17
I loved to watch him play, and my wife just loved to watch him. a true win win!
by graceunderpressure on Aug 15, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked your first post
I keep worrying about the Brewers and I know things can happen but if we can continue to win I just don’t see them catch us. Even if CC/Sheets win every game. We need to position ourselves in the next few weeks to put this race a little farther out of reach. I think this team will do it. Pinella gives me the “we’re not finished” attitude.
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on Aug 15, 2008 12:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind the caution around here
But do yourself a favor and pick up tickets now for the last regular season home games – Sept 20 & 21 against the Cards. Could be special…
Just sayin’
Current temperature in hell: 45 degrees F - and falling!
by wnielsen on Aug 15, 2008 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And where would one go about
“pick(ing) up” said tickets. Do you have 500 bones you could lend me to make that happen?
*Synth intro to "Jump"*
by SouthsideCub on Aug 15, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you try Stubhub?
I think they start at 100 bucks. I never said they would be cheap.
Current temperature in hell: 45 degrees F - and falling!
by wnielsen on Aug 15, 2008 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rest of the season
If the Cubs go 21-20 the rest of the way the Brewers would have to go 25-15 to beat them for the division.
To not make the wild card the Cardinals would have to go 28-12.
Go Cubs
by cubstoseriesby100 on Aug 15, 2008 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Cubs know better then we how quickly things can turn around
As Al pointed out, the Cubs Nation of 1969 thought it was in the bag this time 41 years ago. Baseball is a funny game and nothing is ever guaranteed .. nothing ..
I think we’re going to see Lou step to manage like never before with every tool he has at his command. There’s far too much good play going on right now. The Cardinals may be soldiering on but I don’t know how much longer they can go. Ditto for the Astros. But they, like the Brewers, are somehow stringing victories together and hanging in there. Houston still has an outside chance at the Wild Card .. and above all, I am sure the Cubs are quite aware of this and are doing what they can to forestall the stealth backsliding of a baseball team getting ready to flame out.
Look at the Mets … whodathunk they’d scratch their way back into contention .. but I surely won’t count the Phillies out of it by a long shot. Personally, I think the Mets and Phillies series are going to be the definitive ones in which the Cubs will have the best chance prior to the battle of Armageddon in Miller Park at the end of the year to control their destiny.
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
by cubnational on Aug 16, 2008 12:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
The Mets and Phillies are in a tight battle for the East. They’ll be putting out all their big guns to win those series. And don’t forget that the Phillies are one of five teams (the Cubs joined them last night) at .500 or better on the road. That’s going to be a tough four-game series at Wrigley Field. If the Cubs win that series, they can count that as a major accomplishment against a team they might face in the postseason, presuming they make it. (I’m taking NOTHING for granted.)
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Aug 16, 2008 4:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
cubs
people everywhere i go are telling me the cubs will make the playoffs. they did,nt suffer through 69,84.89,98, and worst of all 2003.brewers are very good the cards are always a threat and god forbid the astros pull one of their miracle runs again.so i wait with bated breath and hope the cubs keep playing good ball the rest of the way.as always having pinella is always a huge plus.
by NOMAR on Aug 16, 2008 7:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't lose any sleep over the Cardinals.
It’s close to impossible for a team to win it all without a good bullpen…and a solid closer.
The Cardinals have neither.
ALSO………..
This year’s Cubs are a team that can take the field EXPECTING to win. The Cardinals don’t have that either.
"I wouldn't be a part of any club that would have me as a member" : Groucho Marx
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 16, 2008 8:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see
One Cardinal that doesn’t expect to win. They are just as much in it as we are…
by ak123 on Aug 17, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When Iook at the scores every day I expect to see that the Cubs won.
I can’t say that about the Redbirds and I don’t think that the team really expects that either.
what I’m saying is that the Cubs look like they have the confidence in themselves and that the Cardinals…given what their performance has been…can’t possibly have that confidence,not realistically.
"I wouldn't be a part of any club that would have me as a member" : Groucho Marx
by Dave Pendleton on Aug 17, 2008 10:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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