hard to read

Yes this is a rough schedule for September, but hey, we have the best record in the National League, we should be favored in every series no matter what!

I will settle for 4-2, but really we should be able to do better than that at home. This is a week where we can just look at make sure that everybody on the team is still feeling healthy.

We really need Big Z to get back on his game, and I will be interested to see if Harden can do a better job of keeping his fastball in the strikezone.

That should be a sufficient record to win the division. That would mean the Brewers would have to go 26-11 to tie the Cubs. 21-17 would be a good record the rest of the way considering the Cubs schedule. If the Cubs split their six remaining games with the Brewers, I doubt very seriously that the Brewers would finish up going 26-11.

if we can maintain our current lead (6 games in the loss column) over the brewers until September 1st then despite their scheduling advantage we are still in pretty good shape.

The brewers have 26 games in September and we have 25. Lets say in our 25 games we play just a little under .500 and finish September with a 12-13 record. Then the brewers would have to go 18-8 just to tie us for the division lead.

I’m hoping over this next 9 game stretch against the reds, nats and pirates that we can fatten our lead just a little. For ever game we increase our lead it makes it that much tougher on the brewers. And in the off chance the brewers do catch us there is still the wild card.

I personally think we will play better the .500 in September, but I don’t want to take anything for granted. I know that the ghosts of ‘69 still haunt Cubs nation. I fell very confident that we will win the division. My fear is a post season “Cubbie Occurrence”

As long we keep winning we are in great shape.

They are the best team in MLB right now and playing the best since Soriano returned. Schedule is actually not that tough.

They will smoke this homestand and through Pittsburgh. Coming home for Phila and Houston they will continue to ride through like the Four Horseman of the ….

By that time they will have a insurmountable lead over Brewers (who are now 6 down in the loss column and Cards are 9 down) where the Cubs will continue to pound the NL on the way to the playoffs.

but I think it bears repeating.

Games were the brewers face a team with a better record then them: 6
Games were the Cubs face a team with a better record then them: 0

Taking my blue shaded glasses off…

The worse record I see for the Cubs in the last 28 games is 18-20.

4-2 vs. Reds and Nats
2-1 vs. at Pitt
2-2 vs. Phil
2-1 vs. Houston
1-2 vs. at Cards
1-2 vs. at Houston
2-1 vs Mil
2-1 vs. Cards
1-3 vs. at Mets
1-2 vs. at Mil

So Brewers would need to go 23-14 to tie the Cubs.

If the best I see the Brewers doing is to split with Cubs in last 6 games that = 3 losses against Cubs.

So outside Cubs/Brewers the Brewers would need to go 20-11 against remaining teams.

Relatively tough games left for Brewers I see going 6-6.
 
3 games at home against Houston
2 games at St. Louis
3 games at home against Mets
4 games at Philadelphia

So they need to go 14-5 against Reds, Pirates and Padres.

That is WORST CASE CUBS performance in my view.

11 Losses max against

Here’s what the Brewers have coming up
Mon, Aug 18 – Houston – 8:05 PM – Sabathia (13-8) – Wolf (8-10)
Tue, Aug 19 – Houston – 8:05 PM – Sheets (11-6) – Moehler (8-4)
Wed, Aug 20 – Houston – 2:05 PM – Parra (9-6) – Rodriguez (7-5)
Fri, Aug 22 – Pittsburgh – 8:05 PM – Bush (7-9) – Duke (4-11)
Sat, Aug 23 – Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM – Suppan (8-7) – Karstens (2-2)
Sun, Aug 24 – Pittsburgh – 2:05 PM – Sabathia (13-8) – Maholm (8-7)

Houston’s hot again… 8-2 in their last 10 games, even though they lost Carlos Lee. AND, they’ve won all 4 starts that Randy Wolf has pitched for them so far. Plus, Brian Moehler has been lights out lately, as we know first hand. Houston’s won 8 of Moehler’s last 10 starts, and he’s got a 2.60 ERA in August. So, it’s not a given here that Sabathia and Sheets will mow right past the Astros.

When Pittsburgh comes in, they’ll have to see Jeff Karstens for the first time, who has been awesome since coming over from the Yankees. Again, we’ve seen Karstens mow us down.

…we have the lead and all we can do is try and win the game that we are playing. We aren’t going to win them all and neither will they. If they play .800 ball to take it then you tip your hat…I’d love to smoke the cream puffs coming up but even if we don’t we still have head-to-heads left. of course it is preferable that our magic number be one as of tomorrow but things have to be kept into perspective and the pressure is really on the Brewers and STL.