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How good are the Cubs beyond 2nd best W/L in MLB

Runs scored: 672 (2nd in MLB behind TX by 23 runs), 1st in NL 64 runs over NYM and 65 over STL and 88 more than the vaunted Milw offense. The also lead the NL in OPS (.807), StL is 2nd with .777 and Milw is 4th with .764. Cubs also lead in OBP with .359, StL is second .348, NYM are 4th with .342, Phila is 6th and Milwaukee is 10th. Cubs also lead in team batting average with .281, followed by StL at .277, again Mets are 4th, Phila is 6th and the Brewers are 10th.

Runs allowed (4th in MLB, 17 more than TB, 14 more than LAD, 10 more than Oakland) so they are 2nd in the NL.  Ironically LAD also leads the NL in team ERA (3.63) with Chicago is 2nd (3.77), Milwaukee is 3rd with 3.92, AZ 4th, Phila 5th, Mets 6th and StL 7th. (Want to know how to be a contender, pitching--pitching--pitching)

Lead in differential 166 runs, BOS SOX is 114, CHI SOX is 92, TB is 73,Phila is 66,  LAA & NYY are 62, MN is 50, NYY is 47 Milw is 46, StL is 45, AZ is 36, LAD is 35.

 

Star-divide

Cubs are tied for 1st in come from behind wins, 36 (tied with Milwaukee)

Cubs are tied with the best home record 28 over .500 with TB;  (BOS SOX are 25 over, CHI SOX are 23.


Cubs are .500 on the road; as AL noted the following teams lead in road record LAA is 16 over .500 (they are only 14 over .500 at home so for them it is not where they play, and the only team in the AL with a winning record on the road, TB is one under .500).

In the NL; StL are 8 over .500 while Milw is 4 over, Phila is three over, (NYY is one under as is FL), while AZ is 3 under, LAA is 6 under.

Cubs weaknesses: Fielding  they rank 11th in the NL, yet StL is 15, NYM is 13th, Phila is 10th, LAD is 9th, Milw is 6th, and AZ is 5th.

One run games: 17-18 with the best ERA and 2nd best RA and best hitting team this could be a weakness and yet 28% of the games are one run, Milw is 13 over in 36 games, StL is one under in 43 games, NYM is 13 over in 27 games, Phila is 7 over in 34 games, and AZ is .500 in 32 games. 

Extra inning affairs: Cubs are 8-5, (Brewers 9-5), StL is 6-10 (difference between them and Milw), NYM is 8-6, Phila 4-7, and AZ is 4-4.

Cubs are playing .588 against RH starters and killing lefties with a .686 winning %. Milw is only 6 over .500 against right handers while beating lefties .649. StL is surprising one game under .500 against lefties; everyone else also kills lefties better than righties in the NL.

The thing what all this comparable macro data suggests is what a fan who has been watching all along: Cubs have the best balance---meaning best all around roster in MLB this year. They could end up with six players with 20 or more HR's in their starting lineup; (provided Lee finds his power stroke, Edmonds keeps dinging them to LF, DeRosa has a hot Sept and Soto blasts a couple more). But they also have a spot starter/PH who has 8 in Mini-Baby Ruth....(Fonty).

They the best utility player in the game (DeRosa), best setup spot closer in Marmol, best all around bullpen, 4 top of the line starters where all four could have 10 or more wins for the year and 4 have 10 or more wins on the Cubs staff.

They also have more big killer innings offensively than any other club by almost double (5 runs or more scored) a staggering 23 times.

They have sustained injuries to their ACE pitcher, their best offensive player and lead off hitter TWICE, their closer, overcome slumps by their two best RBI guys, retooled CF with two DFA'd veterans who now lead the position as a platoon in OPS.

How good are the Cubs?  THEY ARE RIGHT NOW THE BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL! And they also play in the best or at least most competitive division in MLB

Poll
Who do you think is the best team in MLB?
Chicago Cubs
181 votes
LA Angels [once known as the California Angels]
69 votes
Tampa Bay [just call me] Rays
2 votes
Boston [Blood] Red Sox
2 votes
Philadelphia Phillies [almost murderous row]
0 votes
New York Mets [NOT the Amazing]
0 votes
St Louis Cardinals [these birds never die]
0 votes
Chicago White Sox [those who wear pale hose with inferiority complex's]
1 votes
Minnesota Twins [the low budget geniuses]
1 votes

256 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 28 comments

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A couple of other stats

Cubs pitchers also lead the Majors with 965 strikeouts. The Cubs have led baseball in strikeouts every year since 2001.

And to make you feel better about fielding the Cubs defense efficiency is .703, third in baseball behind Oakland and Tampa Bay.

by dorf on Aug 18, 2008 11:00 AM CDT   0 recs

And that is one reason why their "fielding percentage" doesn't matter much.

With a high-strikeout pitching staff, defensive weakness don’t get exposed much — though the Cubs don’t really have a defensive weakness except, perhaps, range up the middle.

(The other is that fielding percentage is a meaningless stat.)

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Aug 18, 2008 12:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Question.

When you talk about fielding, what measure are you using? I can’t find a ranking that list the teams the way you did. If I look at Fielding% the rankings are roughly in reverse order as you mentioned- maybe you clicked an extra time on that column heading (which sorts in reverse order-my favorite mistake) wherever you get your reference material? Anyway, if I look at DER, defense efficiency ratio, the Cubs are first in the NL and third or fourth in MLB- so I like the way that sounds better. Fielding/defense is hard to measure accurately, so for an easy, fairly accurate appraisal, the percent of batted balls that turn into outs (what DER measures) works for me.
I voted for the Angels. It’s hard to vote against an AL team with that kind of success. The addition of Texeira makes them scarier. Can we beat them? In a best of seven game series- anything is possible. It’ll come down to who hits the other team’s pitching best that week- I’d guess.

"Baseball is like church- many attend, few understand." ~ Leo Durocher

by The Lip on Aug 18, 2008 11:10 AM CDT   0 recs

Took too long to post.

Dorf beat me to the DER thing!

"Baseball is like church- many attend, few understand." ~ Leo Durocher

by The Lip on Aug 18, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Let's find out if we can beat them

If you know what I mean.

Current temperature in hell: 45 degrees F - and falling!

by wnielsen on Aug 18, 2008 12:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the Angels are an unknown...

Their division is awful, and they play each of those teams 19 times. In addition, the AL seems to have more .500 teams and fewer dominant ones overall.

Adding Tex helps, losing Izturis hurts, but I’m not sure that the Angels will be tested at all before the playoffs.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Aug 18, 2008 12:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

They have really beat up on the Yankees and Red Sox

They have passed the AL East test as well as beat up on their own division. They are a legit team that really has no peer IMO in the AL. That doesn’t mean they are automatically in the WS, but they are scary good.

Missouri Tigers 2008 Cotton Bowl Champs

by nji232 on Aug 18, 2008 12:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

I hope someone gets lucky in the short series against them. The first round is a crapshoot, really.

by dr stabbingworth on Aug 18, 2008 2:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Took the words right off of my keyboard!

I look for them to win the AL pennant. Neither Sox team is as good on the road as the Angels.

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Aug 18, 2008 3:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The last two years...

… I have thought the Angels were the best team I saw in spring training. They were probably the best team in the AL last year, but they stopped hitting and got beat by the Red Sox in the ALDS.

That won’t happen this year, when they have home field throughout the AL playoffs.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 18, 2008 3:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that pitching staff

is really really scary and if they get to the 8th its as good as over. With that being said anyone can be beaten on a given day. Ive said all along no matter what happens in our division will be won or lost in Sept. with all the head to head matchups with have with the brew crew and the deadbirds.

from the mouth of Uecker:

"Am I the only one who’s glad it’s only a 4-game series? If was a 9-game series, I think the Cubs would win them all."

by cubsluver22 on Aug 18, 2008 4:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

As the Cards have shown us

a few years ago, as they stumbled into the playoffs, once you get there, anything can happen. It doesn’t look like anyone will stumble into the post season this year, every division race is hotly contested except for the AL West.

The Halos play the Rays and Twins this week, this will show us what these teams are made of at this point in the season.

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Aug 18, 2008 4:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point

I feel the Cubs are the strongest and most balanced NL team.

The AL should be fun with the Rays showing they are for real and the battle in the Central between the Twinkies and W Sux. the Sux are Murderer’s Row at home and have a couple of great starters, but will be on the road where they aren’t as strong. The Twins simply keep winning and are hanging in there. September baseball should be a lot of fun!

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Aug 18, 2008 4:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fielding More Than Adequate

The only minuses I see defensively for the Cubs are Theriot and Soriano. I don’t think Theriot is that bad with the glove. He’s a better second baseman than a shortstop. Speaking of former second basemen, Soriano has improved his left field play. He’ll never be a gold glover, but he hasn’t embarrassed himself defensively lately. The Theriot and Soriano minuses aren’t huge. Johnson can be used as a defensive replacement for Sori, if necessary, in the late innings.

I’m surprised to see how well DeRosa has played second base this season. He’s not bad at third filling in for A-Ram. Soto, A-Ram, D-Lee, DeRo, Edmonds/Johnson, and Dome are all good defensively.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Aug 18, 2008 1:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It will more likely come down to who is better at preventing the other from scoring, imo,

…I think the Cubs have a weak IF defense and where it is more likely to haunt them is in the playoffs.

by DudeVf11 on Aug 18, 2008 8:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fielding percentage....blech

i’ll contribute more than that to the conversation. the main problem with fielding percentage is that someone with no range and poor positioning to batters will likely have a very high fielding percentage. the stat that makes the most sense to me is what percentage of balls hit into play are converted into outs….doesn’t matter if it’s a hit or an error, in some way it’s a failing of the defensive team. so basically, outside of BB, K, HBP, HR, what percent of those balls end with a runner on base.

and here, amazingly, the cubs are also first in the NL!

1. Oakland
2. Tampa Bay
3. Cubs
4. Mets
5. Toronto
6. Brewers
7. Angels
8. Phillies
9. Red Sox
10. Braves

and last…..Dusty’s fundamentally sound Cincinnati Reds.

you might argue that the Brewers being that high doesn’t seem right and i agree….but it seems like a lot of the Brewers defensive struggles are based on throwing to the wrong base, etc that occur outside of whether a ball hit into play is converted into an out. that is not accounted for here, and is a tough one to create a metric for.

by GreenLantern411 on Aug 18, 2008 12:56 PM CDT   0 recs

I thought Baker sucked after the 2003 season

Baker’s philosophy, his view of baseball et cetera was just BAD.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 18, 2008 3:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

All this will

mean nothing come Oct. All the stats will be zeroed out. What we all can and will hope for is that the pace they set during the season, remains with the team in the playoffs.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Aug 18, 2008 2:37 PM CDT   0 recs

Wild Bill of course you are correct but we are not in the post season now.

The thing is when teams separate themselves by such a degree ODDS, not certainty but ODDS hold that teams as advanced as they are usually prevail in the playoffs to the World Series. The best part is the balance which provides a basis to overcome the lack of productivity from the usual stars in a short series.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 18, 2008 3:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

good posting

Thanks for the stats, it boggles my mind every time I see how bad we are killing everyone else in run differential. That stat also shows how good the Rangers could be if their pitching didn’t absolutely suck!

"You gotta be some kind of strong to hit that ball"-Joe Carter

by Lemonhead99 on Aug 18, 2008 3:51 PM CDT   0 recs

Pitching...

…is what will determine whether the Cubs can go through the NL and make the WS. I know its simplistic, but if the top 4 starters pitch at or close to the top of their game and the pen does the same, I really like their chances.

This is also the first year in a long time, I feel the offense has an adequate amount of balance. Chances are, they are going to need a few 2-1, 3-2 wins to advance, and they have a fighting chance of being able to score a key run, without their big guys hitting.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 18, 2008 4:30 PM CDT   0 recs

Pitching is king in the playoffs

The pennant and the World Series invariably come down to the team with the best pitching and who executes the offense best. Hence why the addition of Rich Harden looms HUGE for the Cubs in my opinion.

I will feel better about our post-season chances when I see this team perform better in manufacturing runs. You can’t simply sit back and play for the 3 run homer in the playoffs. Especially if you go up against the likes of the Arizona pitching staff, or the Boston pitching staff, or the Anaheim pitching staff.

by MDBNIU on Aug 18, 2008 5:34 PM CDT   0 recs

Thats fine though

Because the Cubs are scoring runs with timely hitting and not the 3 Run Homer.

"I guess you had some lean years, and didnt have to beat it hard" - Craig Sager

"Soriano deep to left!! THAT BALL'S GOOOONE!! A HOME RUN!! OHHH BABY!!" -Len Kasper 8/06/08

SORIANO WATCH: AVG: .293 22 HR 59 RBI

by Galvan316 on Aug 18, 2008 6:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point...

…to me, its a good sign the Cubs are leading the league in runs scored, without their 3,4 or 5 hitters having monster years.

From a pitchers standpoint, this lineup will slowly wear you down much more than any other Cub lineup for years.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 18, 2008 8:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pitching is King

along with batting and fielding. It’s a three-way Kingship. It’s good to be the King. With the King. And the King.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 19, 2008 11:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Secret Sauce

Baseball Prospectus has looked at what correlates with playoff success, and found three main factors: starters who get a lot of strikeouts, a good closer, and a good defense. The Cubs do pretty well on all of those.

The ability to manufacture runs has very little correlation with playoff success. And I haven’t been able to find it, but my instinct is the Cubs don’t have an especially high percentage of runs scored off home runs anyway.

by Old Style & Ivy on Aug 18, 2008 11:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Cubs arent a 3 run homer team

….sorry but their not. Now if you are referring to the White Sox I understand. The Cubs are a team with a bunch of guys with 12-20 homers not once have I felt this team relys on the homer at all.

IMO

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Aug 19, 2008 7:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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