Sabathia stats and projections

by helen on Aug 20, 2008 11:12 PM CDT

There's been a lot made of Sabathia's record in his nine starts for the Brewers, and rightly so, what he's done is quite remarkable. However, after his *fifth* complete game, one in which he threw 130 pitches, I started to wonder about the possibility of over use. So, I went looking for some info on his career averages and compared them to what he's done so far with the Brewers, through the whole season, and what he can be projected to do the rest of the year.

Sabathia 's career averages:

Innings Pitched: 201
Pitches per season: 3209

So far this year he's thrown 195.1 innings (73 with Milwaulkee), and if Yost doesn't juggle the rotation he can be expected to make seven more starts. He's averaging 8.1 innings per start so if that holds he's gonna log another 58.1 innings for a total of 253.2 innings pitched. That's over 50 innings more than his season average, and 12.1 more than he pitched in 2007. (Not including the postseason.)

Sabathia has thrown 2948 pitches this season (1015 with the Brewers) and is averaging 112 pitches per game since coming to the NL. If he keeps up with that average he'll throw another 784 pitches (or close to it) and will end up with 3732 pitches for the 2008 season. That's more than 500 pitches above his career average, which is the equivalent of throwing five additional games this year over his average. (Last year he threw 3581 pitches, not including the postseason, a career high.)

He may be able to handle that workload, he hasn't had much of an injury history over the years. However, if he starts to show signs of tiring at the end of the year, I for one won't be surprised. And I'd hope that any team who is considering picking him up this offseason would take a look at how much he's been used the last two years.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

I hate to wish injury on someone...

…but I think he’s going to get hurt… this year, next year, at some point an overworked arm will fall off…

One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola

by Ryan at Cubshub on Aug 20, 2008 11:20 PM CDT reply actions

I think he's a big risk because of that

But I also think long-term contracts for pitchers seem to be risky lately.

Interesting insight on his workload this year – thanks for posting that.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 20, 2008 11:25 PM CDT reply actions

Agreed

It was awesome to see that info. I knew that many predicted he’d have arm issues because of his increased workload last year, but I had NO IDEA that he was pitching as much as he has this season…

Lets just hope he runs out of gas sooner than later.

One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola

by Ryan at Cubshub on Aug 20, 2008 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions

You're welcome

I did the research to satisfy my own curiosity, but once I saw the results I thought others might be interested.

And I agree, I think he’s gonna get huge money for his next contract. It’s a business that bets on optimism.

by helen on Aug 20, 2008 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I think Zito killed his potential...

The Barry Zito contract probably ruined anything that Sabathia could have looked for in the Free Agent market… It takes one every few years, but Mike Hampton and Barry Zito (and to a much lesser extent, but perhaps more important, is Jason Schmidt, who’s been on the DL since signing with the Dodgers) have ruined it for CC. I think he gets 5-6 years, more than likely 5, with 17M/YR being a solid base.

BUT… I wouldnt want the Cubs to go after him… Not with Harden, Zambrano, and Lilly on board… add Shark, Marquis, Hill, and a cast of minor league pitchers trying to make the rotation, and you’ve got a solid team… at worst, its what came into 2008, and at best, it could be amazing. Lets just hope they resign Dempster.

One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola

by Ryan at Cubshub on Aug 21, 2008 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions

I dunno about the Zito contract...

… ruining it for CC. It didn’t stop the Mets from giving Santana just as big a deal. Plus, the Cubs gave Z a deal close to those, although for less years.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 21, 2008 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions

Two completely different body types.

Zito is a finesse, smaller lefty, while CC is a big, burly (to be nice) lefty. The workload CC has had, and continues to hold up under, I think, may be in large part to his size, whereas Zito’s frame couldn’t support the continued work load.

That said, I would be extremely nervous as a GM looking at Sabathia, given the burden his shoulder has been under the last two years.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Aug 21, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions

I'm curious...

…as to why so much attention (with numerous fan posts) is being paid to Sabathia’s stats, whether he is overated and when he will get hurt?

The guy has proven he is a top shelf pitcher, but I am wondering why so many seem to be infatuated with him of late.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 21, 2008 7:56 AM CDT reply actions

Cause he's in our division now

and we are seeing him up close is my guess. When he was in the AL, he was a good pitcher, but didn’t effect us at all. Now, however, he will have a direct impact on the Cubs for the rest of the year.

by Archie on Aug 21, 2008 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions

I understand that...

…but it seems to be a little over the top with folks saying he is overated and banking on him going down with an injury.

The guy is good, but if the Cubs play to their capabilities, it won’t matter what he does.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 21, 2008 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions

I was just curious

and thought the stats would be interesting to compare. I’m not betting one way or the other, but what he is doing is so remarkable I was wondering if he could keep it up. If he does, he’ll be hitting new career highs in many of his stats for the second year in a row. Maybe he’s setting a new level of ability, maybe he’s headed for a swoon. I dunno, but it is interesting to watch, at least to me, especially as it relates to the division race.

by helen on Aug 21, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions

Call it

whistling past the graveyard

Linus: Life is rarely all one way, Charlie Brown. You win some, you lose some. Charlie Brown: Really? Gee, that'd be neat.

by CyberCyclist on Aug 21, 2008 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Amen brother

But you can’t argue with the sabermagicians and the pitch count police. They apply same theory of thinking to every damned pitcher in the big leagues. To them Carlos Zambrano shall be treated the same way as Rich Harden. They’re clueless. I stil cannot determine why they even follow major league baseball.

by MDBNIU on Aug 21, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Do you ever get tired of not knowing a damn thing?

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 21, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions

wow

500 more pitches. That’s a LOT. If his arm DOESN’T fall off, I’ll be impressed.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 11:00 AM CDT reply actions

It's also entirely possible

that he’s just one of those increasingly rare pitchers who can handle a big workload without it necessarily leading to a physical breakdown. I always think back to the 70’s (when I grew up) where pitchers like Jenkins, Seaver, Carlton, etc. routinely threw around 300 innings a year and rarely suffered any significant injuries.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 21, 2008 11:01 AM CDT reply actions

When a real good pitcher....

….comes to a new league, it is not unusual for them to have a great deal of success. Hitters have not seen the guy (see Harden) and that is an advantage for the pitcher. Add in the fact that both Harden and Sabathia are just good, you have the recipe for a guy who can dominate.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 21, 2008 11:01 AM CDT reply actions

Also worthy of note

Sabathia leads Baseball Prospectus’ pitcher abuse points with 93,233. By contrast, in 2003, Kerry Wood placed second with 259,422 and Mark Prior was fourth with 220,295. Sabathia has been worked hard, it’s true, but if there’s anything at all behind PAP (and there are plenty of people who say it’s smoke and mirrors), Sabathia hasn’t been overworked like those two were.

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Aug 22, 2008 11:30 AM CDT reply actions

What factors into that?

Sorry, I’m clueless here. I don’t know how those are figured or what they represent. But seeing how Woody and Prior both had significant injuries, I don’t know if it means that no one is being abused like they were just a couple of years ago, or if CC leading (even with the decreased number), is an indication of future problems.

by chitownhawkeye on Aug 22, 2008 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions

The revised PAP formula:

The way PAP scores are calculated is quite simple. Simply take the number of pitches thrown in any given start, and subtract by 100. (If the pitcher threw fewer than 100 pitches, he automatically receives zero PAP for that outing.) Then the resultant number is cubed to arrive at the PAP score for that start

PAP is pretty controversial even in SABR circles. That link claims Woolner did a study about PAP correlating with future injury risk, and Woolner’s a pretty smart guy, but I haven’t read the study and indeed there’s no link.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 22, 2008 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions

cc

if the brewers come back and win the division this guy will be the reason

by NOMAR on Aug 23, 2008 7:38 AM CDT reply actions

I doubt he will be hit by injury....

but if we learned anything from last season, it’s that Sabathia, even with his great size and apparent awesome stamina, can fatigue down the stretch. The thing with the Brewers is that they have no choice but to work him hard, even if that means hurting their chances if they reach the postseason. Their pen is just terrible and good old Ned Yost has made it pretty clear he will ride Sabathia until his arm falls off. Odds are he will fatigue, and that only makes things easier for us.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 12:01 AM CDT reply actions