And a stat you will see in the playoffs

by Ivy Walls on Aug 21, 2008 4:08 PM CDT

Cubs just won their 16th 3-game series where they won the first game, (they have swept 6 of them) and have swept three 4-game series (having split four others) and have swept one of two 2-game series, splitting the other. Only twice have they lost a 3-game series where they have won the first game.

OTOH they have lost twelve 3-game series and not so coincidentally in ten of those series after having lost the first game and in only two of those 3-game series that they lost had won the first game.

Analysts like to look for indicators and this one is obvious, the Cubs do well winning the first game where they are 20-2-5 when they win the first game of a series (in all the 4-game series and two 2-game series they have won the first game) BUT they are 2-12 when they don't win the first game. Naturally the odds of losing a 3-game rises considerably when you lose the first game this is big indicator.

Therefore looking forward into the last 35 games of the season going into the hopeful playoffs we should watch this trend and its implications.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

They've done studies, you know...

60% of the time it works, every time.

I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on Aug 21, 2008 4:13 PM CDT 0 recs

Naturally the odds of losing a 3-game rises considerably when you lose the first game this is big indicator.

I’m sorry, I was told there would be no math.

I mean really. Is this rocket science? The cubs win a lot of series when they win the first game — because when you win the first game of a three game series, you have to go 50-50 for the rest of the series. Conversely, the cubs lose a lot of series when they lose the first game — because when you lose the first game of a three game series, you have to sweep the last two.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 4:32 PM CDT 0 recs

Right.

This is like all of those “the Cubs are 12-3 in games where they score 8 or more runs” splits you see from time to time. Really? You don’t say!

Here’s the thing. Go ahead and look at the records of a mediocre, or even a bad team. I’ll bet you see they do pretty well in series where they’ve won the first game as well. You have to provide a frame of reference, otherwise you’re not providing “stats,” you’re providing trivia.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 21, 2008 4:35 PM CDT up 0 recs

it is not trivia, even if it might be obvious to you

the thing is one can dig deeper and see that Cubs also split five series they won the first game….that is the thing about science and math….you don’t assume…..you actually dig through the data to see if it confirms your hypothesis….so do it for the Yanks or Blue Jays or Dodgers and a few teams just below .500 and see if this is a constant.

My thinking is that this club has a lot of sweeps this year, 3 four game series sweeps, and 6 three game series sweeps plus a two gamer. That is 32 games in the book….3 more than their record right now. This might indicate that they get on a roll in a series and can roll up a team. But if they meet some adversity they might not be the kind of team to bounce back.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 21, 2008 4:41 PM CDT up 0 recs

Or it might be normal variance

Reed Ballgame - best CF in the MLB

by californiachicagoan on Aug 21, 2008 7:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

this is not counter intuitive but such a stark contrast demonstrates

that winning the first game is critical, be it coming down the stretch and in the playoffs. I think it would an interesting analysis to do this with the Angels, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals and Boston…..why don’t you do it, there is no math involved just a little work……

something more than being a critic….

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Aug 21, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

honestly?

you don’t think the Angels, Rays, Brewers, Cards and Boston don’t win more series when they win the first game too?

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 4:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

Actually...

I recall earlier in the season the Cardinals were bucking this trend…losing the first game and winning the next two.

But I am not a stat head nor do I play one on this blog.

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico." -- Harry Carey

by TheRiot Police on Aug 21, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

yeah, but haven't they regressed to the mean?

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Maybe so...

I did not look at the numbers…

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico." -- Harry Carey

by TheRiot Police on Aug 21, 2008 4:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

There is math involved, and you're doing it wrong.

Real simple. In a three game series, to “win the series” you have to take two out of three games, or a .666 win percentage. A team with a standard win expectation of .500 is the average (ignoring home field advantage for the time being).

A .500 team will win a series when they win the first game 50 percent of the time, given a large enough sample size. Conversely, when they lose the first game of a series, they have a 25 percent chance to win the series. By definition, the question you asked begs a sizable disparity in the win-loss records. You haven’t controlled for that. You haven’t controlled for strength of schedule or home field advantage or quality of pitchers faced.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 21, 2008 4:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

actually

what’s interesting to me is that it sure as heck doesn’t FEEL like we’ve won 20+ series this year. I mean, the record holds it out, but some days it feels like we’re just barely holding our own.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 4:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

Sometimes those Series wins get lost in the vortex of

Heartburn, Sharted Underwear, Swearing, more Heartburn, little bit of drunkiness, Anxiety, Frustration, Theriot throws to first, Guess Hitting Hacks, DLee DPs……

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico." -- Harry Carey

by TheRiot Police on Aug 21, 2008 4:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Aug 21, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Hey kettle!

Your black!

Sincerely,
The pot.

Reed Ballgame - best CF in the MLB

by californiachicagoan on Aug 21, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

2 back to back fanposts

Ivy Come on…..

by CubFan BudMan on Aug 21, 2008 4:43 PM CDT 0 recs

The first time....

….I read this I got it (I think). But then 4 out of the next 6 times I didn’t get it. Of the 3 times total I did get it (the 1st time and 2 of the next 6) I understood at least the first paragraph. But of the 4 times I didn’t get it, it was the first paragraph that threw me off.

I like to look for a lot of indicators as to whether I am going to “get” a fanpost. This one is obvious. If I get the first paragraph, I will probably think “hmmmm, good point”. But if not, I will probably write a sarcastic comment that has about an 80% chance of being taken as mean-spirited when what I’m really doing is trying to be funny.

"I'm petrified of nipple chafing. Once it starts, it's a vicious circle." Andy Bernard

by TXCub on Aug 21, 2008 4:45 PM CDT 1 recs

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 21, 2008 4:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

LOL

well played!

Linus: Life is rarely all one way, Charlie Brown. You win some, you lose some. Charlie Brown: Really? Gee, that'd be neat.

by CyberCyclist on Aug 21, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up 0 recs

the pink hat guy is my father

by joeschmitt on Aug 21, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

lmao

by sackings108 on Aug 21, 2008 6:24 PM CDT up 0 recs

More fanposts.

You need more fanposts. And more blanket statements.

Brian McRae's 5 O'Clock Shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Aug 21, 2008 4:46 PM CDT 0 recs

the pink hat guy is my father

by joeschmitt on Aug 21, 2008 5:18 PM CDT 0 recs

Awesome, I was hoping for another installment of:

Deep Thoughts by Ivy Walls

by Leon Durham on Aug 21, 2008 6:30 PM CDT 0 recs

Playoff series are 5 or 7 games

with travel days in the schedule. It’s a lot easier to win a 5-game series when you’re 0-1 than it is to win a 3-game series when you’re 0-1.

by ChipSet on Aug 21, 2008 6:45 PM CDT 0 recs

Slightly ahead of the curve.

The Cubs win at a .614 rate, as of today, and lose at a .386 rate. If you win the first game of a three game series, how often will you win the series? To win the series you have to win at least one of the next two games. Equivalently you have to NOT lose the next two games. How often would you lose two games in a row? .386*.386 = 0.149 =14.9% of the time. So you expect to win at least one game of two 100-14.9 = 85.1% of the time.

Therefore of the 18 three game series where the Cubs won the first game, you would expect to win 18*.851= 13.6 series. The Cubs have won 16. So they are slightly ahead of the curve.

Is this a trend, or just random variation?

Reed Ballgame - best CF in the MLB

by californiachicagoan on Aug 21, 2008 7:03 PM CDT 0 recs