PECOTA's top players in baseball:26-50

by sackings108 on Aug 21, 2008 11:01 PM CDT

Today Nate Silver, of BP fame, published a new list of the best players in professional baseball, based on the PECOTA projection system. He only released the first half of the list. Link.

Cubs on the List:

47. Geovany Soto

Silver says:

Full disclosure: Soto is presently my favorite baseball player, mostly because he looks every bit as Eurotrash as someone named Geovany Soto should.

He also mentions Soto's VORP of 43.4 since the start of '07. Pretty sick.

43. Carlos Zambrano

Interesting quote from Silver (note, he's a Cub fan):

Statistically speaking, he's still a number-two starter masquerading as a one, but at some point you have to give deference to his adaptability, his durability, and his bat, which has produced 15 lifetime home runs.

37. Rich Harden

Quote from Silver:

We said at the outset that this list is all about upside. So I'm willing to accept some injury risk for pitchers, provided that they can be this good when healthy.

And I agree, when healthy, Harden is clearly our ace.

Interesting to note that Matt Wieters comes in at number 22 on the list, and Josh Vitters, who we picked a few picks in front of Wieters, is nowhere to be found. Granted, Vitters is raking in the NWL.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Rich Harden is the ace of the Cub staff...no question

Carlos Zambrano is an exceptional pitcher. No question about that either. But if you asked Lou Piniella who he’d rather have on the mound in a must-win game or in game 7 of the World Series he’d tell you Rich Harden.

by MDBNIU on Aug 21, 2008 11:11 PM CDT 0 recs

Ever thought

We’d actually have a debate over the ace of our staff? There’s no reason why Dempster can’t be in the discussion too!

by ak123 on Aug 21, 2008 11:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

Well...

I like Ryan Dempster. No doubt he has transmogrified into a quality major league starting pitcher. But he ranks a distinct number three on my list of Cubbie starters. And I strongly suspect he is having a career year. Which is not to take anything away from his talent and performance. Dempster is solid.

by MDBNIU on Aug 21, 2008 11:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

Dempster is solid, but he is the number 3 starter on this staff.

However, I think in a 5 game playoff series, you go: Z, Harden, Demp, Lilly, Z

The reason I don’t start Harden in game one is because I doubt he’d be able to come back on short rest, if necessary, and Z would.

by sackings108 on Aug 21, 2008 11:23 PM CDT up 0 recs

+1

These are the saddest of possible words: "Tinker to Evers to Chance"

by slcathena on Aug 22, 2008 12:38 AM CDT up 0 recs

dunno

Right now I’d flip Harden and Demp. First two games are gonna be at Wrigley (Mr. Dempster likes Wrigley!), and he’s strong enough he could come back in Game 5 if the Cubs needed him. Harden probably couldn’t.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 22, 2008 3:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

Agree but disagree

I agree that Dempster is having a career year. There’s no reason why I can’t expect him to have a similar season next year. He seems like a guy that puts his mind to something and gets it done. If we have homefield advantage I’d definitely make sure that Dempster is pitching game 2. He does better at home. Harden should pitch game a game 3 with Lou knowing he might have to go into his bullpen depending on pitch count.

by ak123 on Aug 21, 2008 11:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

+1

For the Calvin and Hobbes reference.

by Flatley on Aug 22, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

Well, I agree with you that Harden is the ace. But I don't think Lou would say that.

I think he’s on eggshells w/ regards to Zambrano, and wouldn’t want to offend him.

by sackings108 on Aug 21, 2008 11:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

A thought

Harden might be an ace but Z will always be the face of the pitching staff (where starters are concerned atleast).

by ak123 on Aug 21, 2008 11:37 PM CDT up 0 recs

The Ace and the Face.

I like that.

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 23, 2008 10:27 AM CDT up 0 recs

+1

for Quadrophenia reference.

by aldimond on Aug 23, 2008 10:24 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'm sorry

but I’m just going to call B.S. on that one. What on earth makes you think Pinella would choose Rich Harden, whose Cubs tenure spans about a month, over Zambrano, the true ace of this staff for the last several years. He IS the Cubs, IMO.

Game 7 of the W.S., knock on wood, belongs to Zambrano, without question.

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on Aug 22, 2008 1:03 AM CDT up 0 recs

No

It belongs to the best pitcher (ignoring days off, rest situation, etc) and that pitcher is Harden. Z can warm himself up in the bullpen and come in IF Harden falters.

by dr stabbingworth on Aug 22, 2008 8:49 AM CDT up 0 recs

I am not so

sure I agree. I think that a number of factors are taken into account in a matter such as this. Zambrano has the skills, and has been the Cubs best starter over a number of years. Being the senior member along with very decent numbers, I think he has and still is the number one.

Having said that. After watching Harden over the past six weeks or so, his stuff has been better than Zambrano. But I believe there is a pecking order in the clubhouse. Lou not only knows this but handles it well.

Zambrano baring totally falling off, is your first starter in the playoffs. Dempster is your second and Harden is your third.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Aug 23, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

Any guesses for second half?

Soriano I can see being in it. Dempster might as well and as a sleeper perhaps Theriot. Being in top 5 for BA and #2 in multi-hit games does put you on top of there.

by ak123 on Aug 21, 2008 11:38 PM CDT 0 recs

No chance on Theriot, or Dempster being above Harden, Z, or Soto, so I'd say no. Same for Soriano.

by sackings108 on Aug 21, 2008 11:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

Well how are they ranking these players?

Wasn’t Harden on the DL for 2 months in Oakland? I’m surprised that would qualify for top 50.

by ak123 on Aug 21, 2008 11:56 PM CDT up 0 recs

The premise is, if MLB were to hold an expansion draft right now...

…without a protected list, who would be the best 50 players to draft? So it’s a reflection of future value.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 22, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up 0 recs

Soriano

MIGHT be on that list.

Definitely not Riot.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 22, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up 0 recs

bahaha

to the idea of Theriot being higher than Soto, Zambrano, or Harden. bahaha, I say.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 22, 2008 3:53 AM CDT up 0 recs

Probably just Aramis

I can’t see anyone else being in the top 25.

by Wreckard on Aug 22, 2008 9:26 AM CDT up 0 recs

No way, he's on the downturn of his career, so he won't be there.

by sackings108 on Aug 22, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up 0 recs

That's fair.

by Wreckard on Aug 22, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

Check out the link. They do it based on their projection system, called PECOTA.

It’s projecting his future, which is why his 2 DL months aren’t a huge problem.

by sackings108 on Aug 22, 2008 12:10 AM CDT 0 recs

meant to reply to ak123.

Also, that’s why guys like Dempster and Theriot wouldn’t be on there, because they’re having career years, and aren’t projected to maintain their current paces into next year, etc.

by sackings108 on Aug 22, 2008 12:11 AM CDT up 0 recs

I get it

I forgot what PECOTA was all about. I was thinking they were ranking this year in general…yes obviously those 2 are having career years and would not be on the top 50 then.

by ak123 on Aug 22, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up 0 recs

Wieters v. Vitters

Wieters right now is looking like one of the best prospects in the game, not only because of his position and bat but also because of how close he is. Long-term, it’s still possible that Vitters has a better career than Wieters, but Vitters is much farther away and much less of a “sure thing.”

For the Cubs, there also appeared to be a slotting issue in play last year. Wieters, rep’d by Boras, wasn’t going to go for slot price (while Vitters essentially did). Maybe someone else knows more about this than I do, but I had the impression that the Cubs had reasons not to go too far over slot.

The other thing to take into account is that Wilken obviously had his eye on other Cs laters in the draft who have panned out well for the Cubs (one turned into Rich Harden), so I don’t think it’s time to castigate the Cubs for bypassing Wieters.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Aug 22, 2008 7:07 AM CDT 0 recs

nobody is castigating them

by sackings108 on Aug 22, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up 0 recs

remember when wood and prior

were the aces and z was just a twinkle in our eyes? wow that seems like ages ago….oh and clement was the #3 guy

oh and also remember when howry was talked about being the closer…..funny how fast things change

by cubswynn on Aug 22, 2008 9:59 AM CDT 0 recs

You mean 2003?

And 2008?

Yeah, I remember 2008 pretty well.

CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!

by Keith on Aug 22, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

When does part 2 com out?

by ak123 on Aug 22, 2008 1:35 PM CDT 0 recs

It's out.

No Cubs.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Aug 22, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up 0 recs

That's kind of a cheap shot...

…at Geo – especially considering he’s not even from Europe. Otherwise, I can’t really argue with any of Silver’s comments. I thought maybe Soriano would make the second half of the list, too, but apparently not.

It would be nice if Dome could have put together a more consistent season to get himself into the running as well but…guess not. (I will not freak out about Fukudome…I will not freak out about Fukudome…I will not freak out about Fukudome…I will not freak out about Fukudome…)

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT 0 recs

Eh

I thought it was funny. The real cheap shot in the article was in the Dustin Pedrioa comments. Though with the way the Cubs are handling Pie, I can’t argue with it.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 24, 2008 4:46 AM CDT up 0 recs