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Is D-Lee Slumping or at the Beginning of the End?

Star-divide

Early on everything about Derrek Lee looked good. His April line was .371/.446/.705 for Christ's sake. The old D-Lee was back, right? Well, that wasn't, and still isn't, the case. Not by a long shot. We all have seen the double plays, but not just has he been playing worse, he is a different player. His approach has changed and that stands out when  looking at his numbers. Since April, he hasn't posted a SLG over .442 or ISO over .177 in any month. In the past when Lee slumped he at least had walks to fall back on, but this year he doesn't seem to have the same patience. Maybe he is pressing and swinging too much, or maybe pitchers aren't afraid of him anymore and going at him more often. Whatever it is, his BB rate is down and he is swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone, as well as seeing slightly fewer pitches per plate appearance. In terms of his HR stroke, his HR/FB rate is exactly the same as last year's, but he is not lifting enough fly balls to generate a high total of dingers. His FB% has decreased each year since 2004 and is now all the way down from 40.5% to 33.6%. He is hitting a respectable amount of line drives but his increased GB% is problematic for a first baseman, even one as "fast" as Lee. The latter is clearly the reason for his enormous amount of GIDP. All that said, Lee is still eleventh in the league in VORP and still is a good fielder, but the former is propped up by his superb April and is misleading. Lee is still a good player, but unless he suddenly changes over the next few months, the Cubs need to start thinking about grooming a replacement for down the road, Maybe Josh Vitters, who is blocked by Ramirez, can move to first when he is ready, but lets not get to far ahead of ourselves. Either way, Lee has regressed badly since his huge 2005 and the Cubs would do well to take notice.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Lee's 2005...

…really set the bar awfully high for future expectations. At the beginning of 05, he made a major adjustment that allowed him to turn on the pitch middle in and he cleaned up for half a season until the advanced scouts caught on. Today, his bat does not seem as quick as it once was and I can’t tell you the reason why. I doubt it is his past wrist injury, because that should have fully healed by now. He has really gravitated closer to his previous major league seasons (besides 05) and that is probably what you will see for the next 2-3 years.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 23, 2008 11:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Paragraphs are your friend...

Let my ashes blow in a beautiful snow from the prevailing 30 mile an hour southwest wind...
When my last remains go flying over the left field wall, I'll bid the bleacher bums adieu,
And I will come to my final resting place, out on Waveland Avenue. --Steve Goodman

by NotSure on Aug 23, 2008 11:40 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

First Post.

Just wanted to see how the layout goes, and I actually thought that I formatted my post with several different paragraphs, but it just came out this way. Sorry.

by dakoose on Aug 23, 2008 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When you make your post...

… there is a link that says “Show Editor Help” at the bottom of the posting box… this should help you (or anyone else) with formatting.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 24, 2008 4:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't compare this year to his '05 season.

That was an outlier, and to expect that kind of performance all the time is unrealistic. He’s on track this season to be right around his 162 game career numbers, and I agree with MPH73 that we should continue to see this for the foreseeable future. No need to panic.

"Whoever wants to know the heart and mind of America had better learn baseball." - Jacque Barzun

by Bump Bailey on Aug 23, 2008 11:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Obvously his 05 was an outlier,

but he has fallen way, way down since that season. I mean, outside of April, he has been a pedestrian first baseman and I don’t agree with the idea that Lee is the same Lee he was back in Florida and throughout his career. His ISO is the lowest it has been since 1999 and his BB% hasn’t been this low since 2001. He doesn’t seem to be suffering from poor luck and I believe he has no business batting in the three hole. I don’t know where I can find his spray charts and his placement for his balls in play, but he seems to be pulling the ball way too much and has abandoned his going-th-other-way philosophy. He’s nearing his mid 30’s and I don’t think he will hold his value for much longer.

by dakoose on Aug 23, 2008 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, he's not on track for that

If his SLG finishes where it is, it’s his worst for a full season since 1999. He averaged mid to high 20’s for homeruns in Florida — a pitcher’s stadium. His OBP is down.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its funny

You look at his career stats, he is pretty much where he should be. He had that huge 05 and we expect that year after year. He is 25 HRs, 90 RBI’s and .290. He should get close to that.
 Little to early talking about Vitters, lets at least see what he can do at AA.

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Aug 24, 2008 12:40 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What's Lee's WARP-1?

I can’t find it anywhere on the internet…

What worries me most about Derrek is his increasing GB%. I’d think about resting Lee tomorrow and starting Daryle Ward at first, just to get him out of the August heat and let him rest up.

CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!

by Keith on Aug 24, 2008 12:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, he is what he is

A popeye-esque assesment, but his 05 was certainly an anamoly, and even then his RBI numbers werent outstanding. Hes not Pujols for sure, but like it was said above if he hits around 300 with 20-30 hrs for the remainder of his contract, then great. His speed was once an asset that set him apart from other 1B, but thats all but gone. He’s still and all star caliber player and far from a worry. Though youre right, he has seemed a bit off this year interms of his approach.

But there are no immediate solutions that would be an upgrade, and its unlikely he’d be move given his deal.

As far as Vitters, well lets hope we have that problem someday and he can buck the trend of cubs positional prospects becoming true stars.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Aug 24, 2008 1:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs have 79 wins.

With 79 wins, the Cubs are 14 wins ahead of last year’s team.

Derrek Lee is hitting .290/.358 and other than Berkman or Pujols, I wouldnt rather have any other NL 1B…

Relax.

One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola

by Ryan at Cubshub on Aug 24, 2008 1:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i just think that we should get more power

he hit a homerun recently…and that was his first in forever. i have patience in him though

he will turn it around

"Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living." --Alvin Dark

by preachermancubsfan on Aug 24, 2008 1:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm really, truly not worried about home runs.

The Cubs are leading the NL in runs and run differential. What’s the big deal about HR?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 24, 2008 4:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In and of themselves, nothing

But a lack of them is a symptom of the problem — not driving the ball with authority very often and not hitting it in the air.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love D. Lee

but I certainly hope we don’t sign him to any extension past next year. His best days are probably behind him.

Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."

by DC Cubbie on Aug 24, 2008 1:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya never know.

That’s what they said about Edmonds. Lee could have a monster year next year. Ya just never know.

"I wouldn't be a part of any club that would have me as a member" : Groucho Marx

by Dave Pendleton on Aug 24, 2008 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats really now ay to look at your team.

Wins are the end all be all, but it’s very important to acknowledge how your team got to that point and not assume that since the team is good every one of it’s players is. We’ve seen what happened to Grossman after being dubbed a “winner” after being dragged to the SB by his team. DIfferent sport, but still….
Also, don’t be too selective with your stats. I notice you left off Lee’s SLG, and that just can’t be done. A first baseman that hits for average and walks a bit but has little power is not an assett at a premium offensive position. Joey Votto, for example, has a line almost identical to that of Lee and the same goes for Adam Laroche. I’m not even going to try and say that Lee is better than Fielder, although some of the difference in their offense is made up by Lee’s defense. Any way you slice it, the Cubs have, at best, the fourth most productive first baseman in the division and that might not cut it come Ocotober.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

And that’s why he may need to be moved in the lineup. That, however, is probably not something Lou’s going to do as long as they keep winning at the clip they’re at. And maybe that’s the right thiong to do – not rock the boat. If Lee did get moved, maybe the apple cart is upset that would be juat as bad, if not worse, than leaving Lee where he is.

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really? I think Derrek is a tremendous person and a solid player

But you wouldn’t take Albert Pujols over him?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It says "other than Berkman or Pujols"

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed. Missed that.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please....

D. Lee is fine, with two men on, and the game on the line, who do you want up to bat?

ernie81

by ernie81 on Aug 24, 2008 2:41 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

How many outs?

;-)

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes - why wouldn't I be?

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not you..

The reply was meant for Ernie. For starters, Ramirez, and maybe Soto or another player who I could trust to lift a ball, assuming there are less than two outs. Lee isn’t even a sure thing at this point when it comes to Sac flies.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh OK - you replied to my comment, not his

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aramis Ramirez

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh, yeah...where are the runners?

If they’re on first and second, I’ll take Aramis. Or, hell, DeRo right now.

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 25, 2008 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a stupid thread

Talking about beating a dead horse. Every week we have a “Is Derrek Lee washed up?” discussion around here, and it’s really getting old. Derrek Lee is fine, leave him alone. He’s the heart of this team and contributes so much more than his statistics show. He rescues cats from Chicago-area trees on off-days and works as a midwife during the winter, delivering babies free-of-charge to Chicagoland low-income single mothers. I think it’s ridiculous that you’ve written a fanpost here, complaining about Lee, when the club is 29 games over .500 and is the best team in the NL. Lamest… fanpost… ever.

/sarcasm

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 24, 2008 3:39 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

but seriously though...

I love Lee, and I think that he’ll be fine. Probably on the downslope, sure… but still a great fielder, smart baserunner, and a major leader of the team. I’d be surprised if his bat didn’t rebound, too… it would be unusual at this point for age-related decline to be very steep. He’ll be fine.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 24, 2008 3:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO...

thanks for the chuckle!

ernie81

by ernie81 on Aug 24, 2008 4:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As I just joined the site

I wouldn’t exactly know what topics have been beaten like a dead horse or not. I don’t share the same reassurance with Lee as you do. Since the start of May he has been nearly a non asset at first base. I mean, thirty three extra base hits in almost four months? Thats awful. I understand that people love Lee and all, but it’s time to see what he is. I thought you, who wrote that post on theriot and seemed to appreciate the numbers, would understand where I am coming from with Lee.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Note the sacrasm tag at the end of his comment?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

btw, Shanghai

I love your sig line.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 24, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

Forgive my ignorance, but where is yours from?

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh...

It’s from the latest Alice Cooper album. I’m a huge fan.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 24, 2008 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yessir

“Along Came A Spider” came out earlier this month. Really good stuff too.

You look like you'd fit in the trunk of my car.

by mambochicken23 on Aug 26, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I work for Derrek, so I'm getting a kick out of these replies....

…Joe, where are ya when we need ya?

Let my ashes blow in a beautiful snow from the prevailing 30 mile an hour southwest wind...
When my last remains go flying over the left field wall, I'll bid the bleacher bums adieu,
And I will come to my final resting place, out on Waveland Avenue. --Steve Goodman

by NotSure on Aug 24, 2008 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lee is on the decline.

THat’s obvious. He had a career year in 2005 where he not only hit everything in sight, but drove it. Even inside pitches, which was his weakness up to that point.

 Then he shattered his wrist in LA and quite frankly, he hasn’t been the same player since. Not a bad player mind you, but not the same.

He is still a good player but, definitely a player on the decline.

Over time, your quickness with a cocky rejoinder must have gotten you many punches in the face - Al Swearengen

by lemon20pie on Aug 24, 2008 4:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

having said that

he’s still a player I would want on my team, just not hitting 3rd. He’s right now on a GREAT team, a 6th place hitter.

Keep in mind, i’m not talking szit about the man, just thinking aloud.

Over time, your quickness with a cocky rejoinder must have gotten you many punches in the face - Al Swearengen

by lemon20pie on Aug 24, 2008 4:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ryne Sandberg was never the same after his broken hand.

Lee may be facing the same problem. Plus, he is 33 years old. I hope he can have a strong September… and beyond.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 24, 2008 5:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

Sandberg’s a perfect (and sad) example of how a bad injury can hasten a player’s decline.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 24, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

these dairies

will be a thing of the past when theriot,soriano,fukudome, and lee carry us through the playoffs and help us to win our 1st big one…………..

from the mouth of Uecker:

"Am I the only one who’s glad it’s only a 4-game series? If was a 9-game series, I think the Cubs would win them all."

by cubsluver22 on Aug 24, 2008 6:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BTW this is the same question

that was asked about Thome and, to a lesser extent, Konerko. There is no way of knowing when it’s truly over, especially for a player who was at one time very productive, then struggles for an extended period of time, especially when age is a factor.

Thome & Konerko seem to have rebounded and, while they’re not back at career-best numbers, they provide solid offensive production and, in PK’s case, decent-to-good defense.

In addition, players like Derrek (and Thome and Konerko) create a problem for the opposition, given their history of success at the plate – they can’t count on them not getting a clutch hit or taking a well-timed walk, so they still may feel that they have to pitch around or intentionally walk them – which, of course puts them on base, etc.

We all know that you have to hit your way out of a slump, and that’s what Derrek’s going to have to do. He may have to be moved within the lineup, but he’s gotta stay in the game (literally) and take his lumps.

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 8:28 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

so they still may feel that they have to pitch around or intentionally walk them – which, of course puts them on base, etc.

In fact, we’ve seen this happen twice… and Rami made both opposing teams pay.

Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!

by drewishdrewid on Aug 24, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Different story

Thome’s “struggles” were much different than Lee’s. His were short term and only affected part of his game. His average suffered, but looking at his peripherals, it shouldn’t have. His power was there, it’s just that his SLG% looked low(high 400’s) early on because of his low BA. He had a nice April, poor May, huge June and July and now a so-so August, although once again, he is having poor luck on balls in play. His overall numbers suggest no change in approach, as he is hitting nearly the same amount of liners, ground balls and flyballs and is only walking slightly less often than usual, but still does so at a respectable clip. He has lost a bit of his pop, but still gets hits out nearly a quarter of his fly balls. I would much rather have Thome’s bat at first than Lee’s. His defense, not so much.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 9:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

OK - how about Konerko?

He struggled more mightily than Thome, plus he had to play defense, so that comparison with Lee is more accurate

CRAFTY BEAVER!!!
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/

by lostinthevines on Aug 24, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Konerko is similar to Lee

in that he is also taking some of his old fly balls and turning them into ground balls. His LD rate is almost right at his career average. He is hitting more pop ups on the IF than ever before and also seems to have lost his power stroke, as he is only turning 12 percent of his FB into home runs, as opposed to his career rate of nearly 17 percent. BP’s writers have said over and over that slow, plodding first baseman don’t last all that long and can lose it very fast. Konerko might be exhibit A. He’s only 32, but he plays like he is a lot older than that. For what it’s worth, his walk rate is at an all time high, but his slightly increased K rate might point to a loss in bat speed. He can still recognize pitches, it just seems like he doesn’t have what it takes to take advantage of the poorly placed ones. Lee has gone the opposite direction, both walking and striking out less than he usually has, but he has not lost any of the “power” he had last year, as his HR/FB is exactly the same. He just needs to go back to hitting more flies. A groundball hitter in the three hole is not a recipe for success. Ozzie moved Paulie down, maybe the time has come for D-Lee to scoot down a bit as well.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're making some excellent points, dakoose...

…but, getting back to this paragraphing thing, if you hit “enter” twice after each paragraph, your posts would be a little easier to read.

Like this.

And this.

Seriously, you’re backing up your assertions with a lot of substance and it’s nice to see.

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 25, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a legitimate question

It’s interesting how people reply with things like, “Why question things? The Cubs are 29 games over .500?” Some people are borderline indignant about it — and some others cross over that line.

So, that means everything is perfect and there’s no room to improve? Taking that to a ridiculous extreme, I suppose there’d be no value in trading Jason Marquis for Brandon Webb, because the Cubs are 29 games over .500. Take off the blue glasses and put down the kool-aid — a post like this is not anti-Cub. No where in the original do I read any personal attacks or comments like “sucks” or “DFA”. Those would be uncalled for and worth some of the responses.

Getting to the original question, I’m concerned that this may be the beginning of the end. Derrek frequently watches hittable pitches go by or questions strike calls. The comment about him no longer going to RF as often is spot on, he rolls over pitches it hitters’ counts and I’ve mentioned his alarming GB/FB ratio twice before.

Given his April, I have a tough time believing that the wrist injury is the root cause, but I don’t have a valid explanation. The point that this year is nowhere close to the Florida Lee is also true.

Piniella isn’t stupid and I’m sure he sees these things, but maybe, as someone suggested above, he feels it’s better to keep it status quo for now.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:08 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Very good points.

Everybody loves D-Lee but there’s nothing wrong with discussing this. What worries me isn’t so much the regular season but what happens if and when we get into the playoffs (I say “if” because, as I’ve said before, I don’t believe in tempting fate). When we’re facing a rotation’s top starters over a short, “do or die” period, we’re going to need better production out of the three hole-simple as that.
And as for the people that say it’s a slump and he’ll come out of it, all I can ask is, at what point does a slump become a trend? Really he hasn’t hit consistently since May.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 24, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right about the post-season

(on both points, probably!)

Funny, I thought of you when I typed the “kool-aid” comment and wondered if you’d reply, but from what I remembered, you actually don’t drink it and look at the team objectively.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

I’m just now getting around to this thread. One of the things you point out that needs to be remembered by anyone looking at Lee’s “career #s” is that the FL park is one of the hardest to hit in. This is one place where OPS+ comes in handy. Lee’s 2005 was a career year, and even then, a career half-year (remember the talk of him hitting .400?) But Lee’s 2008 has been a big step down from his career numbers. This isn’t necessarily the “beginning of the end;” it could easily be the mirror image of 2005, his outlying bad year where his timing never could get right. He might be right as rain from October through to next October.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Aug 24, 2008 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for noticing Badger

The Cubs are, by far, my #1 sports passion but, over the years, I’ve learned that it helps to take off the rose colored glasses from time to time. Some times I’ve been right, other times I’ve been wrong. And incidentally, I’d love to be wrong about Lee because I really think it would be best for he and the team if he was moved down in the order-unfortunately, I don’t see that happening any time soon.

by bluekoolaide on Aug 24, 2008 9:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope we're wrong about Lee, too

In the past, he’s been capable of carrying the team for a week or two. Those players are invaluable in a short series.

He’s a class act, too.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just gonna throw this out there.

Here are some names you’ll find on the list of the top 30 single-season GIDP totals.
Jim Rice (36 in 1984) (13th in MVP voting.)
Cal Ripken, Jr. (32 in 1985) (17th in MVP voting.)
Ivan Rodriguez (32 in 1999) (Won MVP voting.)
Dave Winfield (30 in 1983) (7th in MVP voting.)
Carl Yastrzemski (30 in 1964) (Hall of Famer had an off year, but still OPS+ of 124.)
George Bell (29 in 1992) (20th in MVP voting.)
Brooks Robinson (29 in 1960) (3rd in MVP voting.)
Ted Simmons (29 in 1973) (14th in MVP voting.)
Harmon Killebrew (28 in 1970) (3rd in MVP voting.)

Could it possibly be that hitting into a bunch of double plays isn’t as bad as we think? It might just be that you have somebody with a crazy-good OBP batting right in front of you, and that you frequently hit the ball pretty hard.

by HereComesASpecialBoy on Aug 24, 2008 10:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Could it be, yes.

Does this ignore all the other stats when comparing to Lee? Certainly.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Posted too fast.

Anyway, without looking at the seasons of those other players, take a look at Lee’s career #‘s. His OBP is down, his slugging is way down and his groundballs are way up — he’s hit 193 grounders this year — as many as he did in 2007, a career high. This, and it’s not even the end of August yet.

There’s a lot more going on here than Theriot’s OBP.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice.

Thats the crux of my post. It’s not a slump, it’s a new Derrek Lee. He has changed, and not for the better.

by dakoose on Aug 24, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Being the Devil's Advocate

Maybe this season is the Hyde to his ’05 Jekyl. Maybe this season is an outlier…just a bad outlier and not a good one.

While, I am concered about DLee, I do think that lineup gets solid slugging production from Spots that most teams do not (Catcher/2nd Base) that it helps to minimize the impact of DLee’s lack of slugging.

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico." -- Harry Carey

by TheRiot Police on Aug 24, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is reasonable optimisim

I like the way you’re thinking — hope you’re right.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I must admit...

…I read recently that Vlad Guerrero is, IIRC, leading the AL in GIDPs and felt a little better. It’s still a pretty ignominious category to be leading in, though.

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 25, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hoffpauir

can’t be ignored. He’s a left handed hitting first baseman (a butcher in the outfield) who is obviously ready for the major leagues. I’d hate to see him traded and come back to haunt us. Some major decisions will have to be made in the off season and he’s one of them.

by Clark Addison on Aug 24, 2008 11:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hoffpauir can and should be ignored.

For some minor league perspective, Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus wrote an article ($$$) about the minor league leaders in offensive categories. Micah isn’t in the article because he’s not a leader in any category. Meanwhile, there are leaders, guys like Nelson Cruz and Dallas McPherson who are just as old as Micah, hitting just as well and better, with better scouting records to boot, but they’re being ignored, too, because teams know that 28 year-old guys who’ve repeated AAA enough times will be able to murder the ball in the minors in a way that has no predictive value for their success in the majors.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Aug 24, 2008 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ignored, not so muc.

While I am not horny for Hoffpauir like some other fans, it’s not as if he is chopped liver. Ignore him as a potential star, yes, but not as a useful big leaguer.

I also saw the article on BP from KG and immediately wondered where is Hoffpauir here. The reason he is not on those lists is that he doesn’t have enough AB’s at AAA. For example, McPherson has 423 and Cruz has 370. Hoff only has 258, but for players in the PCL with at least 250 Ab’s, Hoff has the highest OPS of all, even Cruz and McPherson. The big knock on Hoff, aside from his age, is that he doesn’t take any walks, but at least he doesn’t strike out as often as say, McPherson.

by dakoose on Aug 25, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The lack of walks (that is to say, plate discipline and control)

is the precise reason Micah is very unlikely to have a ML career. To put it bluntly, he has Corey Patterson’s problem without Corey Patterson’s talent.

I’d love it if he did bust through, because those are the best baseball stories, but it would be foolish for any ML team to plan on Hoffpauir helping their team – he’s not talented enough to be an everyday player and his weakness makes him a bad bench option where you need contact and discipline.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Aug 25, 2008 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Old" D-Lee

First, he was a .266 lifetime hitter when he came here in 2004. His first season was “OK” then he was IMHO over his head in both BA and OBP with that great 2005. 2005 was more of a positive anomaly than his performance now being a negative anomaly.

He’s a good complimentary offencive player and stellar defencively. He’s not Albert Pujols with a bat. I think he’s slumping a bit and needs to get out of his head that he HAS to play all 162 games. When he’s tired he tries to pull the ball, rolls over it and now leads the universe in GIDP.

He’ll be fine, just don’t expect a .335 BA and .400+ OBP like in 2005.

Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.

by blackhawk24 on Aug 24, 2008 12:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I*m not worried about is BA OR his HR.

People want him hitting .300? i dc. he is getting 1 less hit every 100 AB’s if he were hitting .300. And his HR? Like Al said… Cubs have #1 run differential. This team finds ways to make runs 6/7 days of the week. The thing to be worried about… Double Plays The guy can obviously get hits, but when he doesnt, he is killing rallies.

"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying" - Michael Jordan, the one and only...

by LPLancer23 on Aug 24, 2008 1:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

His approach seems different

He seems to be swinging at a lot more low or low and away pitches than in previous years. And as others have mentioned, he isn’t walking as much. Dunno if it’s his eyes, or just a needed adjustment in strike-zone discipline, but if he was more selective, he’d have fewer DPs and more hits. Seems to me, anyway. In past years I remember being really impressed with his selectivity, but this year it is the opposite.

by cubmudgeon on Aug 24, 2008 1:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This is more than anything..

A bade case of “The Grass is always greener” or something similar… I think its hard for someone of us (not myself) to look at DLee as a good 1B when we have to see the likes of Berkman, Pujols, and to a lesser extent Fielder, all of which play in this division. There really arent any first basemen in any other division that would be a leaps and bounds improvement over Lee…

So we see these guys on a regular basis and think “Golly, Gee, wouldnt it be nice to have someone like THAT?” The same thing happend with Aramis Ramirez for a while, when people insisted that Rolen was THAT much better than Ramirez, and now that he’s left there arent too many doubts that Ramirez is the best 3B in the NL Central.

Look around the rest of the NL and look at the stats too, and then come back and discuss this. It seems that most of you are going by what you see watching Cubs baseball, and NOT what everyone sees in the statbook or in other games.

One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola

by Ryan at Cubshub on Aug 24, 2008 2:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This discussion has nothing to do with the other first baseman

That’s not what dakoose’s post was predicated on. It is about Lee not looking as good as he used to.

Q: Is Lee starting to tail off at the end of his career?
A: He’s better than a lot of other 1Bmen in the N.L.

This is essentially what you’re saying.

It seems that most of you are going by what you see watching Cubs baseball, and NOT what everyone sees in the statbook or in other games.

Of course, because the question was about Lee, not Lee in comparison to other players.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trying to pull

I agree with those who say he’s trying to pull the ball all the time. I just looked at a quick hitting chart, and, not-surprisingly, the VAST majority of his GB outs have been to the left side, very few to the right side. I’d expect this normally, but it’s more evidence to the theory that he is pulling almost everything.

I think that you see the decrease in power because he’s not going the other way anymore. And since he’s not shooting the ball to Right or Right-Center anymore, the pitchers can live on the outer-third and even off of it, and just let him keep rolling over balls to SS and 3B until he proves he can go the other way again.

Until he does that, there is no reason to come inside on him, which is where most of his power is going to come from.

I don’t think that his patience is too much of an issue, as his 56 BB so far would only have him fall slightly shy of his 71 in ‘07. It’s the fact that he’s not getting his hits that’s deflating his OBP.

I’d honestly be fine if he didn’t hit another HR all year, but his terrible OPS is the problem. His OBP is now below .360, which wouldn’t be bad if it weren’t for his SLG. An .830 OPS isn’t awful, but the fact that since April his SLG has been hovering in the low .400s and even into the high .300s month to month, means he’s not been very productive.

Since the break, he’s hitting .244/.315/.359 for an OPS of .674, which is back-up middle infielder territory.

I think there is a very legitimate chance that DeRosa will have a 20HR year and Lee won’t.

I hope he comes around. I know that the Cubs have been cruising without his bat, but down the stretch and into (hopefully) October, it could really bite the team if their #3 is still hitting like the 25th man on the roster.

by WittyUserName on Aug 24, 2008 5:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe A Lighter Bat

Would help restore his bat speed, and thus enable him to shoot the ball to the right side again.

"Sometimes I feel like as a Cubs fan if I’m not worrying about something, I’m not doing it right." - HalfBlindCubbieGirl

by CaliCub on Aug 24, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not a bad idea.

Also, sitting today with the minor back problem probably won’t hurt him at all — sort of a “mental health day”.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 24, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little surprised...

…DLee’s current injury hasn’t been brought up more in this discussion. I can’t help but wonder whether Derrek pulled something during his torrid March/April and has been dealing with (or “hiding”, as it’s sometimes called) an injury ever since. His OPS has gone as follows:

March/April: 1.118
May: .681
June: .775
July: .781
August (thus far): .761

It could be that he was hurting badly in May and then has slowly but surely been able to mitgate the injury’s effect since then. The pain in his back/neck could also be what’s forcing him to swing differently and, thus, hit more ground balls than fly balls. Is it just a coincidence that he finally homered on 8/22 then, soon afterward, went down with back/neck spasms?

Just throwing this out there because it’s been on my mind. Maybe I’m stretching a bit here (uh, no pun intended).

Yes, sir!

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 25, 2008 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's hard to speculate...

…what the deal is, but it is pretty clear that Lee is not getting the bat through the zone with the same speed he was early in the year.

IMO, I don’t think it is an age decline as he appears to keep himself in pretty good shape and 33 today should not be a concern. Something may be lingering that is keeping him from cutting loose, and if so, I hope he can get it straightened out.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 25, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ryan Howard

The anti-D.Lee. His name hasn’t come up on this post, but here’s someone with a lot more HRs and RBIs. But he brings .220-.230 BA and poor defense, not to mention Sosa-like SO numbers. I’ll take D.Lee.

"Earthly fame is naught but a breath of wind, which now comes hence and now comes thence, changing its name because it changes quarter." -- Dante, Purgatorio, Canto XI

by sweetswinger on Aug 24, 2008 7:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Derrek Lee is a good ballplayer albeit in decline phase

Frankly, I’m surprised the sabermagicians haven’t analyzed Lee to death to come to the same conclusion. He’ll remain a valuable player for a year or two longer, but beyond that I will be hoping for him to become an ex-Cub. It would help if he were moved down to the 6th or 7th hole in the lineup next year.

by MDBNIU on Aug 24, 2008 8:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

DLee is the victim of his own success.

Remember when Doc Gooden had that ultra-sick 1985 season? 1.5x ERA, etc. In 1986, he posted a sub-.3.00 ERA and everyone wanted to know what had happened to him. In truth, his career year came very early in his career. He is not unique in that respect.

Most players peak at around 26-28 years old, are solid from 28-32, then start to decline — slowly at first, then more swiftly as they have more trouble keeping up their conditioning and healing from injuries.

The few like DeRo who seem to get better with age are usually players who didn’t get a chance (due to injury or being blocked) to prove themselves and establish their career year at an earlier age.

So, DLee turns 33 next month. He had his career year “way back” in 2005. He is starting to decline. That is to be expected.

The real question is: at this point (2008 or possibly considering 2009), what player can the Cubs reasonably get (via trade or FA) who would be better than DLee? Would you rather have Carlos Delgado? Would you rather the Cubs sign Texeira — even if it meant paying him the money that would otherwise go to Dempster and Wood, and paying part of DLee’s contract to dump him? Would you rather just dump him and move DeRo (who doesn’t have a 1B bat) to 1B so that you could play LBR/Cedeno at 2B?

The Cubs farm system cannot “groom Lee’s replacement”. All they can do is to try to develop prospects and hope that a few of them turn out to be major leaguers — with maybe a real star every few years. Maybe Vitters will be the guy, maybe he won’t — he’s still in A-ball!

Lee is still a very good major leaguer both offensively and defensively — certainly far above replacement and not easily replaceable. Perhaps he is no longer a classic #3 hitter, but I don’t think the Cubs have anyone who would be a “more classic” #3 guy. As long as Sori bats leadoff (and I like him at leadoff) and Ramy bats cleanup, who else is there?

Will we say the same thing next year about DeRo being washed up if he hits .275 with 15 HRs and 70 RBIs?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Aug 24, 2008 10:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A well thought-out post, but it missed the question

Not should he be replaced, but is this more than a slump? The career stats and this year seem to say it might be, but we’re all hoping it isn’t.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Test

nothing to see here . . . move along

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 11:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

just testing the link feature

odd things were happening…

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 24, 2008 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Such as?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 25, 2008 4:05 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When posting in the postgame thread last night

And trying to create links, the webaddress of the actual post was getting inserted into the link itself. cubswynn was having the same problem. I got it to work later, but was testing a link in this thread to see what happened.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 25, 2008 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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