FanPost

Run Differential

I've been following the standings on MLB.com and have been quite intrigued by the run differential for teams, and the subsequent expected WIN-LOSS records for those teams. Strangely enough, some of teams with amazing records shouldn't, statistically speaking, be having those kinds of years

Here's the breakdown of the top teams in reference to run differential and expected WIN-LOSS:

1. Cubs          +193 85-49 (Actual Record: 84-50, -1)

2. Red Sox    +122 78-55 (Actual Record: 77-56, -1)

3. White Sox +108 77-56 (Actual Record: 76-57, -1)

4. Phillies         +88 76-58 (Actual Record: 73-61, -3)

5. Rays             +80 75-57 (Actual Record: 81-51, +6)

6. Mets              +73 74-60 (Actual Record: 74-60)

7. Brewers       +72 74-59 (Actual Record: 77-56, +3)

8. Jays              +66 74-59 (Actual Record: 68-65, -6)

9. Twins             +65 73-61 (Actual Record: 75-59, +2)

10. Angels        +57 72-61 (Actual Record: 81-52, +9)

11. Cardinals   +55 72-62 (Actual Record: 74-60, +2)

Now, obviously having a winning expected record guarantees nothing in reality. However, for the most part the expected records are really close to teams actual records, the only primary exceptions are the Jays, Rays, and Angels

Last season the D-Backs defied logic by winning despite a poor expected record and poor run differential, so having the Angels and Rays win wouldn't be such a shock, and by all accounts, they'd be contenders even if they weren't outplaying their differential. But what does that say about the teams? Obviously it shows that they are winning close games and losing some blowouts, but is there anything else to be read into this?

Does anybody else find these numbers interesting? Based on this, the Red Sox should have a 1.5 game lead over the Rays and a 3 game lead over the Jays. And the Phillies would lead the Mets by 2, as opposed to them trailing by 1. The Angels are clearly winning a ton of close games, and there is clear evidence to that as K-Rod is chasing the single-season saves record

Do people think this is telling of how teams might fair down the stretch, or how they'll perform in October? I think it tells the story of just how dominating the Cubs have been, and how I don't think they need to cower in fear of any opponent. I think it will be interesting to see if these numbers take their toll down the stretch, particularly in regard to the Rays, as the Angels have all but secured themselves that division.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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