Jacque Jones and Fukudome the same player offensively
by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 10:10 PM CDT
54 comments
This diary is hard to write and I know Fukudome is a vastly superior player in defense, base running, throwing arm....but Kosuke has now had 452 at bats that is one less than Jacques had in 2007.
Kosuke has recordeed 40 more walks than Jones had, 34 to 74, but he has also struck out 25 more times.
Kosuke has 4 more homers and Jacques had 10 more doubles.
Jacques offensive line 285/335/400
Kosuke is at 265/367/389
Kosuke has hit into 10 less double plays 5 to Jacques 15.
Again I don't like writing this post, but all things considered the numbers are pretty even offensively.
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Thanks....
…..I have a feeling this post will explode.
Similiar but not even IMO
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip
by Hammer on Aug 31, 2008 10:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've lost most of my enthusiasm for Fukodome
but I’d still probably take him over Jones-for defense and baserunning skills alone.
Problem with him is, at this point anyway, he’s a platoon player who should basically NEVER be starting against a left handed pitcher.
by bluekoolaide on Aug 31, 2008 10:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
fukudome vs lefties
I would have thought that Fukudome’s numbers would be alot better average wise vs righties but he is actually hitting lefties for a better average than righties..274 vs 263 but he has yet to homer vs a lefty…all 9 have come against righties.
by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Dome has a whole nother month of regular season to go. And DEFENSIVELY, they’re as different as can be.
History shows that Japanese players struggle their first year.
Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!
by drewishdrewid on Aug 31, 2008 10:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Which Japanese Players had a bad first year and went on to turn it around?
Not trying to flame but I can’t think of anyone?
Here are the 3 most prominent Japanese players in the majors:
Hideki Matsui 287/353/435 a little bit below his career averages
Ichiro 350/381/457 a little bit above his career averages
Kaz Matsui 272/331/396 about at his career averages
Am I forgetting someone?
by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 11:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In Drew's defense
On ESPN and all over sports media they have been saying exactly what he said. Examples like Ichiro were used. I don’t know any career rookie numbers but that is what has been prominently said on national media.
by ak123 on Sep 1, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know you're comparing three players, right?
I reiterate, this is silly until we have a bigger sample size for Dome. I mean, com’on, you’re not comparing 10, 20, or even FIVE players. Three. Silly.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Sep 1, 2008 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those are the those 3 players FIRST year in the majors
I still don’t know what everyday major league player falls into the category of ‘had a bad first year’ and then got better.
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
Here’s two seconds worth of Googling:
Derrek Lee had a " below average" first full year, and has significantly better seasons since then.
In ‘98 (Lee’s first full season), he played in 141 games, and had splits of .233/.318/.414, with an OPS+ of 96.
Career average (over 162 games), he has splits of .283/.367/.498, with an OPS+ of 123. Those are significantly better numbers.
I am not including specific stats because there are 21 games of difference. But if you’re looking at Dome’s less-than-full-season stats of .265/.367/.389 with an OPS+ of 96, it is more than easy to find good to great players with less-than-stellar first seasons.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/leede02.shtml
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Sep 1, 2008 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee was 22
Lee was 22 when he put up those numbers…Kosuke is 30.
I do hope Kosuke improves and soon we are going to need him for the playoffs.
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 2:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the intention.............
………….was to only compare the “big name” Japanese players.
Not sure about So Taguchi and Tadahito Iguchi, but they were not as highly touted as the Matsui pair and Ichiro. Dome came with the same fanfare as the latter group of players.
Kaz Matsui did not live up to the hype (at least initially), but Godzilla and Ichiro were pretty much as billed. I’d say, overall, Dome is coming up short of his projected skill levels.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Sep 1, 2008 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iguchi
was strong in his first two years and has went down from there. It’s tough to compare Taguchi because he didn’t play much in his first several years.
by rlpete on Sep 1, 2008 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro has gone down from there?
He hasn’t gone down from anywhere. Plus, his best year EVER was last year.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Sep 1, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who mentioned the demise..........
………..of Ichiro?
Don’t see it in these posts.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Sep 1, 2008 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
I mis-read Iguchi for Ichiro.
In the world I see--you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Tower. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying strips of venison on the empty carpool lane of some abandoned superhighway.
by Tackle Box on Sep 1, 2008 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point was to disprove the adage
that Japanese players struggle in their first year and then get better. It does get repeated but doesn’t seem true. I’m not sure of any players where that happened.
by rlpete on Sep 1, 2008 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
People forget that the reason the Cubs developed their patience
was due to Fukudome. If we hadn’t signed him I bet our record wouldn’t be as good as it is today. He brought the teachings of patience along with Reed Johnson. people seem to forget that..
2008 Cubs: Who needs nine innings, when you only need a 7th?
by Chanman25 on Aug 31, 2008 10:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Dome’s impact can’t be simply measured by his stats alone. His MINDSET has changed the team mindset. Look at our walks.
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Sep 1, 2008 12:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
Although Dome came over with his patience at the plate (only against right handers) I believe Sweet Lou should be given credit in regards to the remainder of the team. He has always insisted on patience at the plate and having his pitchers throw strikes..
"We’ve still got a long ways to go, I don’t like to get giggly over things in July. But the team’s playing well, they really are. They’re playing with confidence, and it shows."
by Cubster on Sep 2, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The walks
are a big difference. The number of strikeouts make no difference.
Fukudome has been a disappointment in the second half, but 30 points of OBP is not “no difference.” It’s a good-sized difference.
Jones 11 points of slugging is close to no difference. It makes it a little closer.
Borowy . . .Sutcliffe . . .Harden?
by Josh77 on Aug 31, 2008 10:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
OBP is worth more than SLG.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Aug 31, 2008 11:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Depending on who you talk to, one point of OBP is worth 1.4 to 1.7 times as much as a point of SLG. (Paul DePodesta actually thinks it’s worth 3 times as much).
And Josh is right — the difference in OBP is quite significant, much more than the 11 points difference in SLG. And the strikeouts are irrelevant.
And you know what else? Fukudome is a much, much better outfielder than JJ.
Oh, of course you’re comparing Fukudome to last year’s JJ — last I heard JJ wasn’t even playing baseball any more he struggled so much this year.
I don’t want to pile on Jacque — I think he got shafted by the fans early on and didn’t get a fair shake, and I think without his second half last year the Cubs wouldn’t have made the playoffs. But Fukudome is a better baseball player right now. And I’d like to think that he adjusts to the league and improves next year.
by John Q Freejazz on Sep 1, 2008 9:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't tell the Theriot haters that
by dr stabbingworth on Sep 1, 2008 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A point of OBP is worth more than a point of SLG.
That’s due to a few quirks in the math, though – you’re adding two fractions with different denominators to come up with a “junk” number that isn’t measuring anything.
The problem is that by simply looking at OBP and SLG, even if you multiply OBP by a constant, you’re still undervaluing the walk. Every other event is represented in both OBP and SLG; the walk is only included in OBP. So players with high walks totals are undervalued by OBP and SLG, relative to equally valuable players with lower walk totals.
(As an aside – VORP has the same problem with walks as OPS! No, I’m not kidding.)
If you were to ask all Cubs fans which had been the more valuable hitter so far this year – ignoring position – they would mostly say Theriot, and they would say that it wasn’t close. And that’s not correct, because the walk is being undervalued.
by cwyers on Sep 1, 2008 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Thanks for the analysis
by dr stabbingworth on Sep 2, 2008 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at splits
One thing Fukudome has really struggled with is hitting with 2 outs:
He is only at 155/232/261 in 161 abs for the season
Jacques in 2007 was actually good in these situations 333/380/497 in 147 abs
I’m not saying this team is any better with Jones…I’m just saying that on paper there isn’t alot of difference.
I hope Kosuke can emulate Jacques and have a great September :) as many of us remember Jacques hit .349 in August and .342 in September last year.
by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 11:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeff, one other thing to consider here
is how JJ has done this year. It’s not as if we necessarily had access to 2007 JJ. Jim or Lou or someone may have seen his troubles this year coming.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Aug 31, 2008 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not comparing Jacques to Kosuke in 2008
I’m just comparing 2007 Jacques vs 2008 Kosuke
2008 Kosuke is the better all around complete baseball player…but offensively he’s only a hair at best better than 2007 Jacques.
Ther is no doubt Kosuke was great in April and May but he has struggled since June…that is a looong slump for a major league player.
Kosuke:
April 327/436/480
May 293/388/404
June 264/387/402
July 236/306/382
August 190/295/253
This trend is not good at all
by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yikes
190 in august, only about 300 OBP last two months
by JPetey on Aug 31, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
However.
Last 7 games: 7-for-16, 5 walks, a HR, 7 RBI, .353/.478/.588.
Yes, small sample size, but MAYBE a hint that he can keep it up for the next month.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 1, 2008 3:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe They Told Dome It's Sept 0
j/k ;-)
"Sometimes I feel like as a Cubs fan if I’m not worrying about something, I’m not doing it right." - HalfBlindCubbieGirl
by CaliCub on Sep 1, 2008 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I didn't really care for JJ
He was a solid CF last year who made some spectacular defensive plays. He also got hot in the second half that I think helped the team guarantee that post season spot. Right now would be a good time for Fukudome to start hitting.
by ak123 on Sep 1, 2008 12:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I try not to judge on the first year as well....
With the exception of Ichiro anyways, whos a hall of famer, a lot of Japanese guys do better in the second year around. Look at Dice K, hes gonna be a Cy Young finalist, Iwamura’s been much better as well.
My excitement has also waned, I must admit. But I really have faith in his professionalism and that he’ll do the necessary work in the offseason to maintain his first half performance next year, just like Theriot has.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Sep 1, 2008 12:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Iwamura
285/359/411 rookie year
282/353/385 2nd year
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks about the same to me
Other than pitcher Dice-K, the adage that Japanese players do better after the first year seems wrong.
by rlpete on Sep 1, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matsui is a great example...
of Japanese players who do better after their first year.
But really, the whole point is kind of stupid. Are we really saying that since Kosuke is a foreigner, and since other people from his country have improved from year-to-year, that he might do the same thing?
by kanderber on Sep 1, 2008 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, and why not?
they go through similar adjustment periods. They all experience great distance from home, families, people who use the same alphabet.
I don’t see it as a stereotype.
Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One less than full season in the MLB – a much harder league than any other – is too small a sample size. How bout we compare after a few more, eh? New country, family halfway across the world, new language, etc. Patience.
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Sep 1, 2008 12:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And some people like their cucumbers pickled...
Its hard to sleep on the following facts between the two…
1.) Fukudome has better plate patience and so does this year’s team.
2.) The fact that Fukudome has more than doubled the walk total of Jones is a pretty big point that you just kind of glossed over.
3.) Fukudome plays better defense. Though I dont feel that Fukudome is the best right fielder defensively in the NL, he’s awful good and a whole lot better than Jones. Remember Jacque “I spike the ball into the ground when I throw” Jones?
Those facts alone discount your argument, in my opinion. I see where you’re coming from, as they’re both right fielders and both have had discussions of being benched after an awful stretch of some sort, but I think this argument is too much of a stretch…
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Sep 1, 2008 12:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not talking about defense
Yes Fukudome is VASTLY superior to Jones as a defensive player. There is no comparison.
Offensively the 2 seasons are pretty similar.
Fukudome is only slightly better and most of that comes from the walks department.
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think your argument is close-minded.
Just like the above poster said, you’re glossing over the walks department. And it’s convenient that Dome’s first season in the majors is similar to that of Jacque’s most recent season with the Cubs. I appreciate the comparison to our last two RFers, but it’s just too early to do a full comparison.
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
by dtpollitt on Sep 1, 2008 12:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
argument
I don’t want this to seem like an argument I’m just coming to terms with the fact that Kosuke has only been a slight improvement offensively over Jacques. I don’t think anyone would have predicted that after his first 2 months.
I’ve felt sorry for Kosuke the last 2 months or so, I certainly never felt sorry for Jacques.
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont feel sorry for either...
Fukudome is a better player, plain and simple.
You’re kind of following the Dusty Baker approach by not considering walks as a vital stat…
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Sep 1, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what makes this post rather peculiar...
Why are you only talking about offense? Unless they were both DHs or this was pertinent to some fantasy league discussion, I don’t quite get the significance of an offense-only analysis. Are you expecting Lou, Jim, or BCB Nation to arrive at some conclusion or make a decision based solely on offensive numbers?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Sep 1, 2008 2:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
just an observation
Right field is not a position like shortstop where defense should matter more than offense.
He’s an above average right fielder, probably not a gold glover.
Are there any other right fielders in the league who are their based solely on defense?
I’m just being objectively critical of Kosuke’s performance in 2008.
by jeff_pico on Sep 1, 2008 2:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, but
you can’t DFA the offensive Dome and keep the defensive Dome.
He is a player. There is only one of him. You can’t separate them.
Our 2008 Chicago Cubs -- FINDING WAYS TO WIN!
by drewishdrewid on Sep 1, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Other Than Fukodome's Eye for Walks
His approach to hitting is maddening@!!!!
Physics tells you it is hard to hit a ball on the outside of the plate while falling away
The league adjusted to him very fast and he has yet to make the requesite adjustment
Love his walks and defense…but hate everything else
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic. Crash Davis
by Reed's Johnson on Sep 1, 2008 8:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Pinch HR
In that at bat it seemed like Dome didn’t fall away as drastically – more towards the pitcher than the right side. Maybe that’s part of the solution?
"Sometimes I feel like as a Cubs fan if I’m not worrying about something, I’m not doing it right." - HalfBlindCubbieGirl
by CaliCub on Sep 1, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kosuke will adjust
The problem here is that the pitching has adjusted to Dome faster than he has adjusted to them. Remember he has never faced any of these pitchers before. Think how great some rookie pitchers do until the league adjusts to them. Dome is facing what is essentially a rookie to him every game.
by nks6911 on Sep 1, 2008 1:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A quick observation...
Just a quick observation, for all the talk of comparing Jacques Jones 2007 to Fukudome this season, Jacques was most frequently a CF (http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesja05.shtml) in 2007 (and he was a better CF than a RF by every defensive measure I am aware of—both statistical and ancedotal). It was 2006 when he was an exclusive RF…and in 2006, he slugged 99 pts higher, or well enough to make up the difference in OBP. A more fair comparison might be Jones as a Cub (2006 & 2007) vs Fukudome, which is probably a wash (or slight edge to Jones) offensively, but Fukudome still comes out ahead defensively on the whole.
Now, that said, based upon his age and performance in Japan I would expect Fukudome to improve and make any of these comparisons academic, but I do think we should keep ourselves more honest in our judgements. It should also not be forgotten that Jones was traded to make room for Pie and not Fukudome in the starting lineup, but this goes back to my original problem with the comparison.
by MarchHare on Sep 2, 2008 8:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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