Spreadsheet fun, Part II

by jdb-44 on Aug 31, 2008 11:26 PM CDT

At the beginning of August, I made a spreadsheet to track Cubs wins/losses--both actual and predicted. When some folks thought my predictions were overly optimistic, I dropped a couple of W's...however, the Cubs wound up doing even better than my original prediction, beating it by a game! They beat the revised prediction by four full games...

Link to spreadsheet snapshot

So, with that in mind, let's see how they stack up against my (totally informed and rather pessimistic) predictions for September!

Link to September spreadsheet snapshot

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Looks fairly reasonable to me

Of course I wouldn’t be surprised if these teams surpises us again and gets on a tear to finish the year.

by jeff_pico on Aug 31, 2008 11:32 PM CDT reply actions

Good Work JD

The key for the Cubs is to do no worse than a split in the remaining six games against Milwaukee. Right now the Cubs lead the season series 6-4, so a split with the Brewers would give the Cubs a 9-7 edge as well as the division title should the two teams finish 2008 with the exact same record.

"Sometimes I feel like as a Cubs fan if I’m not worrying about something, I’m not doing it right." - HalfBlindCubbieGirl

by CaliCub on Sep 1, 2008 12:05 AM CDT reply actions

I hope your wrong on the win side and we end of having more

I wish it were winter so we could freeze it into ice blocks and skate on it and melt it in the spring time and drink it!

by brownbuddha on Sep 1, 2008 2:18 AM CDT reply actions

That is somewhat pessimistic.

You have the Cubs going 13-12. In their last 25 games the Cubs are 18-7. Granted, the next 25 are a tougher schedule.

Let’s split the difference and say they can go 15-10… that’d be an even 100 wins. The Cubs have 67 different stretches of 25 games this year in which they have gone at least 15-10.

If they do that, the Brewers would have to go 20-6 to catch them and 21-5 to pass them. Beat Milwaukee head to head and that’d go a long way toward winning the division.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Sep 1, 2008 4:05 AM CDT reply actions

Agree but not likely.

Yesterday on the pregame interview Lou alluded to taking the next few weeks, with 3 off days, to position the pitching staff and position players for the last two week drive to win the division. I think we’re seeing that now with skipping Z yesterday, moving Harden way back, giving the other starters another day. Maybe a risky move, but probably the smart move. We may lose some ground here but be stronger in the two Brewers series because of it. We can sure win 15, but winning the right 13 seems to me what the coaching staff is positioning the cubs for.

Would be curious if this is something Lou didn’t do in the 116 win season in Seattle. Maybe he learned the hard way?? I think he has his mind on winning in the long run, not the couple of weeks.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Sep 1, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Interesting take.

I know the Mariners, late in that year, seemed focused on getting that 116th win, to tie the Cubs’ 1906 record. (They had to win six in a row at the end of the year, long after they had clinched a playoff spot, to do it; they got to 116-45, then lost their final regular season game.)

100 wins would be nice, as you say, but I’d rather be in position to win the three playoff rounds. If that’s what they’re doing, I’m all for it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Sep 1, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions

What I see...

With what I saw this weekend 13-12 is what we are gonna get,with Z going down, and no clutch hitting. The schedule is tougher because the teams are trying to make the playoffs as well.

ernie81

by ernie81 on Sep 1, 2008 4:51 AM CDT reply actions

"Z going down and no clutch hitting"?

You’re assuming that two games’ worth of that is going to reflect the next 25?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Sep 1, 2008 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions

That and...

The tough schedule, and that, its just hard to try and come back and win all these tough games in the 7th and 8th inn. Plus the fact that most are on the road.

ernie81

by ernie81 on Sep 1, 2008 8:30 AM CDT reply actions

I Somewhat Share Ernie's Caution

While I don’t think that Z is destined for the DL and that the offense is on a downward spiral, I do think that being on the road for 16 of the next 25 (against our divisional foes and the Mets) will translate into some losses. That’s why I’m being conservative in predicting a 13-12 September. But going 3-3 or better against the Brew Crew this month is crucial.

"Sometimes I feel like as a Cubs fan if I’m not worrying about something, I’m not doing it right." - HalfBlindCubbieGirl

by CaliCub on Sep 1, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions