Locking up Harden Long Term

by AceCubbie on Aug 5, 2008 8:19 PM CDT

So we've got Rich under control for next year, but at what point do we start considering locking him up beyond next year? That seems to be Hendry's MO with his stars in the year before free agency... but is Rich Harden different?

He's just 26, and he's been absolutely dominant (the latter part of today's effort aside), but he's hardly a model of health. Of course, in that way, it almost makes as much sense for Harden to play out next year without a long-term deal as it does for the Cubs. If he can (finally) make it through a full season without an extended DL stint, he's gonna raaaaake it in.

Thoughts? Worth the risk? How many years? How much money?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I should note

That although he’s 26 now, he will be 27 just after the season ends.

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by AceCubbie on Aug 5, 2008 8:20 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

I'd wait until at least next season to consider locking Harden up to a deal.

There’s no rush right now – generally, especially with pitchers, a team like the Cubs doesn’t have the same incentives as smaller market teams to lock up players early.

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by cwyers on Aug 5, 2008 8:24 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Agreed.

There are other important people to re-sign first: Dempster, Wood, for example.

Harden has to show me he’s healthy for a full season before locking him up long term. He’s under team control until after next year, right?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 5, 2008 9:16 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

The Cubs have an option on Harden for next year.

As for Dempster, I’m not sure if I want the Cubs in the business of resigning him.

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by cwyers on Aug 5, 2008 9:51 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Why?

"Your eyes can decieve you. Don't trust them." Obi-Wan Kenobi, the first sabermetrician...

by Curtain Jerker on Aug 5, 2008 11:48 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Because I don't think he's going to be as valuable...

...as what he’ll be valued as on the free agent market. In a world where Jason Marquis gets a 3 year, $21 mil contract, what on earth do you think Dempster will make coming off a career year?

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by cwyers on Aug 6, 2008 12:34 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

The new "splitter" makes me nervous

And I want to see how he does when he hits 200+ IP.

He is in great shape, but he’s already 30.

I think it’s just his face. - dat cubfan daver

by halfblindcubbiegirl on Aug 6, 2008 1:37 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

been saying the same thing

all year long

the only bad part of Dempster’s resurgence is that it might trick the Cubs into giving him a long-term deal

you can’t pay a guy 12-15 mill per year for four-five years when he’s had exactly one year in his career that would be worth that much, add in that he’s past the “peak-performing years” and you’ve got a scary contract waiting to happen

by DartmouthCubsFan on Aug 6, 2008 10:06 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I just don't think we can let him go.

I agree it will be hard to match what he has done here in 2008 but he has shown the ability to be a quality #3 starter, perhaps a #2. That is worth keeping around IMO.

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Aug 8, 2008 8:49 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Do you want to resign Dempster

because you believe he’ll be this good for at least the next two years or because you believe he is due some loyalty from the Cubs or both or something else?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Aug 5, 2008 11:16 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Remember about Harden

He was traded to Chicago, has no allegencies to Chicago, probably likes to play here but never signed here as a free agent.

I say we lock him up now instead of next year. I fully expect him to go to free agency otherwise and get a huge deal from another team. I don’t see him being like Dempster or Wood who might test free agency but take a hometown discount.

by ak123 on Aug 5, 2008 8:30 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

No rush to sign Rich Harden

He is one of the best pitchers in baseball. When healthy he has been utterly dominant the past few years. But there is no need to sign him long-term right now. This is a bridge that can be crossed next year when, hopefully, the ownership issue is settled. Harden will be due a $80 million plus payday in all likelihood. Not exactly chump change, even for a big market team.

by MDBNIU on Aug 5, 2008 8:36 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Anyone who gives Harden 80 mil

surely would be giving him 5 or 6 years. Itll never happen.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Aug 5, 2008 8:44 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

It all hinges on health

When Harden is healthy he’s a terrific pitcher. That said though over the last three seasons he’s only pitched 252 innings. So far this season he’s tossed 101 innings. You have him locked up next year. But see how he does thru the rest of the season, at least, before you make that commitment.

by DrCrawdad on Aug 5, 2008 8:42 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

i'd explore it

contact his agent, test Harden’s level on interest… the usual song and dance. you don’t have to make any hard offers, but it seems so many players these days get pissy when they feel no love from management. should you decide to keep him, a little good will could make doing that so much easier.

by Petrie000 on Aug 5, 2008 9:25 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

If he's healthy next year

Lock him up. When does Gaudin’s contract? He was solid as a starter with Oakland this year posting a 3.26 ERA and he’s only 25.

"Check the magic of a winning season and there are always reasons beyond the talent." Ned Colleti

by wrigleyrocker12 on Aug 5, 2008 9:42 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

don't read too much into that.

I remember when he was one of the old Devil Rays Next Big Things. He wasn’t awful, but he wasn’t anything special as a starter back then. my guess is this is another case of ‘great defense+huge park= inflated trade value’

by Petrie000 on Aug 5, 2008 9:50 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Gaudin will be a free agent after the 2010 season.

We have two full years of Gaudin after this season. Probably the steal of the trade deadline.

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by cwyers on Aug 5, 2008 9:52 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

where do you find this at?

everywhere I have looked says he is done after 08

by cubs2410 on Aug 5, 2008 11:32 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

gaudins contract

Jan. 25, 2008 – 7:43 p.m. ET

Athletics agreed to terms with RHP Chad Gaudin on a one-year, $1.775 million contract.
Gaudin’s agreement was halfway between the $2.05 million he had asked for arbitration and the $1.5 million the team had offered. In addition to his salary, Gaudin could earn $100,000 in performance bonuses: $50,000 for 200 innings and $25,000 each for 205 and 210 innings. Since he appears likely to miss the start of the season after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip, it’s going to be hard for him to reach the incentives.

by cubs2410 on Aug 5, 2008 11:35 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Arbitration-eligble players negotiate a contract each season.

If they can’t come to an agreement, they go to an arbiter.

Gaudin began the year with just over three years of service time; you need more than six years of service time to be eligible for free agency. So the Cubs control Gaudin’s rights for ‘08, ‘09 and ‘10.

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by cwyers on Aug 6, 2008 12:21 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

wow that was a good trade

by philadelphiacub on Aug 6, 2008 9:00 AM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think this is a good example

of a situation where you don’t make a decision until you HAVE to. Dontrelle Willis is exhibit A as the Tigers traded for him and immediately signed him to an extension. (He’s now pitching for their A ball team.)

Pitchers are always more unpredictable than position players and in Harden’s case, his health history makes that even more difficult.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Aug 5, 2008 10:04 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

The difference is that...

...Willis had posted a 5.17 ERA (5.10 FIP) in the previous year, so it’s not like the Tigers had no clue he was going to commence suck once he moved to the league where they have the DH.

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by cwyers on Aug 5, 2008 10:09 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

I think this is too early

Let’s see how healthy he is next year. If the event we’re hoping for happens this year, I suspect they aren’t going to baby Rich next year like they will in August/September this year—let’s see how he holds up.

by Shanghai Badger on Aug 5, 2008 10:37 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

I think even if the Cubs do win it all this year

that they will still take it easy on Harden after Prior and Wood. I don’t think they want to go through all that again.

by inukjim on Aug 5, 2008 10:39 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Harden Needs to Go Deeper...

into games effectively before signing him long term. There is no need to lock him now, if he can only pitch 5 to 6 innings effectively in games. He still has to prove his durability.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Aug 6, 2008 7:35 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Incentives are the way the go.

I say give him a contract simular to what they did with Kerry Wood a few years ago. Have the big money kick in if he starts X number of games or pitches X number of innings. That way they can pay him what he is worth if he’s healthy and not pay stupid money if he is on the DL.

Of course he may not go for that.

"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"

by MerlinDog on Aug 6, 2008 8:12 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

No rush...

I think there’s no reason to rush to sign Harden to an extension:

1. I think Kerry Wood should show the danger in providing long-term contracts to guys with bad injury histories. I’d like to have Harden show his durability before committing big years and big dollars to him. He’s now pitched 100 innings for the first time in several years, and even this year he’s already been on the DL for a month.

2. Let’s see how well he does over an extended period of time rather than just based on his first few games in a new league. I’m much less concerned about this issue, as I think he’ll be an ace quality pitcher as long as he can stay healthy. But it is a consideration.

3. We have never had problems resigning our own free agents. I can’t remember the last guy that the Cubs really wanted to keep but weren’t able to resign. If the Cubs wait until next year before trying to make a deal, I still have every bit of confidence that they can get it done.

4. Harden may not even WANT to take a deal right now. Considering his injury history, taking an extension now would probably mean a big reduction in $ per year. He may want to gamble that he’s finally figured out how to pitch and stay healthy, and thus want to show a bit of that to increase his market value. For that reason, it may not even be an option to resign him soon.

Because of the injury risk and the Cubs history of keeping their guys, I say wait until he has shown he can stay healthy for longer than a few months. Some time next season, if he’s shown to be more durable, try to work out a deal.

by SouthernCub on Aug 6, 2008 8:56 AM CDT reply reply 1 recs

I would sign Dempster 1st

At least to a 3 yr deal, then Wood and Gaudin, if he does not have any options yrs left. Marquis is signed through next year and Lilly through 2010. Howry should not be resigned. With Marshall, the Shark and other young pitchers on the horizon, Harden can wait until near the end of next season before a decision is reached. Like everyone is saying, let him stay healthy for a season before committing big dollars to him.

by Barry McCokiner on Aug 6, 2008 9:53 AM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Dempster is number 1

but besides that the Cubs will be signing both. Harden knows that he wont get the Johan Santana money because of his constant battles with injuries. The would be stupid not to lock both of them up long term though for roughly the same amount of money because we don’t know if Dempster can keep this amazing run going on a consistent season to season basis and Harden will have to show he can stay healthy for an entire season.

by Treebs on Aug 6, 2008 3:21 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs

Seems like everyone has a lot of confidence

That Dempster is going to be this good for the next few years. I guess I just get scared by the Carl Pavano’s and Estaban Loaiza’s of my memory.

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by AceCubbie on Aug 6, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

With good reason...Dempster had major injuries the last go round as a starter...

Let my ashes blow in a beautiful snow from the prevailing 30 mile an hour southwest wind...
When my last remains go flying over the left field wall, I'll bid the bleacher bums adieu,
And I will come to my final resting place, out on Waveland Avenue. --Steve Goodman

by NotSure on Aug 6, 2008 10:35 PM CDT up reply reply 0 recs

Hardin/Gaudin Current Contract

Rich Harden rhp
4 years/$9M (2005-08), plus $7M 2009 club option

acquired in trade from Oakland 7/8/08

$1M signing bonus
05:$0.5M, 06:$1M, 07:$2M, 08:$4.5M, 09:$7M club option (no buyout)
escalators based on IP

signed extension 4/05, replacing 1 year/$0.3365M for 2005 signed 3/05

ML service: 4.074

Chad Gaudin rhp
1 year/$1.775M (2008)

acquired in trade from Oakland 7/8/08

re-signed 1/25/08 (avoided arbitration, $2.05M-$1.5M)
performance bonuses: $50,000 for 200 IP, $25,000 each for 205, 210 IP

1 year/$0.4M (2007), re-signed 3/07

1 year (2006), re-signed 3/06

acquired in trade 12/05 after being DFA (by Toronto) 11/05
1 year/$0.3025M (2004)
drafted 2001 (34-1,009)
agent: Larry Reynolds

ML service: 3.004

Gleaned from Cots Baseball Contracts website

This being the case Woody should be priority 1. In my humble opinion if Cuban is successful in purchasing the Cubs quick enough I can see him making a splash and throwing so much money at CC Sabathia that it won’t matter if we resign Dempster. IMHO

by Grace17 on Aug 6, 2008 4:27 PM CDT reply reply 0 recs