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playoff roster.... thoughts?

C  -  soto                 Blanco
1B - dlee                 Hoffpauir
2B - fontenot
SS - theriot             cedeno
3B - ramirez
LF - soriano
CF - edmonds       johnson
RF - derosa            fukudome

SP1 - zambrano
SP2 - harden
SP3 - dempster
SP4 - lilly

LM - marquis
RP - marshall
RP - gaudin
RP - cotts
SU - samardija
SU - marmol
CL - wood

my opinion (which i suspect wont be shared by most) is that hoffpauir should get that lefty bat spot before ward. he has been clearly the better hitter compared to ward. i know hes a rook, but theres no arguing the numbers (traditional and LD%, though to be fair his babip is unconsciously high at .472.

what about the starters? i think everyone agrees that lilly is the 4th starter on this years team, but as much as zambrano is the ace, harden has been hands down the best cub pitcher by the numbers. dempster is better than zambrano too, statistically speaking. but lou isnt giving zambrano a game 3 start. and he shouldnt.

i also couldnt come to a conclusion for that 14th position player? carry both hoffpauir and ward? pie? its probably 2 of those 3.

what should happen? also, what will happen? feel free to rip me apart.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I dont see how we are going to carry 4 SPs for a 5 game series. The way the games are spaced out Z can come back and pitch game 4 and if needed we can have Demp start game 5.

by blueapple on Sep 22, 2008 4:29 PM CDT reply actions  

The Cubs will carry the 4 starting pitchers

Marquis is a question mark. What happens if there is rain and it screws up the rotation?

Piniella won’t be screwing around with the roster enough to only keep 3 starting pitchers.

by rlpete on Sep 22, 2008 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

I can't imagine keeping Pie on the roster...

but he sure was fun to watch run the bases yesterday

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked. "Oh, you can't help that," said the Cheshire Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."

by Hagen on Sep 22, 2008 4:31 PM CDT reply actions  

Ward and Pie.....

…no chance a carrer minor league first baseman makes the playoff roster.

Pie brings the intangibles, great D, can play all three OF postions if need be and would be a great pinch runner which will happen in low scoring post season games in which your desperate for that one run.

"When I got to Chicago, fans came to Wrigley Field just to have fun, now they come to see us win. The expectations have changed, for the players and for the fans. It’s about winning." Kerry Wood, 7/14/08

by JB 23 on Sep 22, 2008 4:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Agree...

…I don’t care what Hoffpauir does the next week, he will not be on the roster ahead of Ward.

I just don’t see Lou wanting a guy with virtually no ML experience, in a critical spot were you need a hit to win the game.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 22, 2008 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Makes sense

but doesn’t he have about as much ML experience as Soto and Hart did last season?

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think...

…you are comparing apples to apples. Soto was broken in late in the year and it became clear he had the maturity to not only hit, but handle the pitching staff as well or better than Kendall. Hoffpauir would basically be a late innings left handed pinch hitter, and let me tell you, that is a very difficult job to perform in. Add pressure he has never felt before, and I would much rather have Ward up there when you need a hit.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 22, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Eh

I don’t think it was clear all that quickly. Soto didn’t really take the majority of starts away from Kendall until the last 2-3 weeks of the regular season, and even then, it wasn’t clear that Kendall was no longer the starter (in fact he started one game of the NLDS).

I agree with all your points about Ward vs Hoffpauir. And it’s true that Hoff has not gone as far in his role as Soto did in his at this time last year. But — Lou has shown that he can pick young favorites, and that he is partial to gutsy underdogs, and put them in responsible positions (Theriot, Hart, Samardzija, Fontenot, Marshall…). Hoffpauir was one of those — Lou made a point to say he was the 26th man at the end of ST and would come up at some point. And he did come up, at the expense of Pie, Murton and Patterson. Lou likes him….

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

so late in a playoff game, if you need a left-handed pinch hitter

who can hit for power, you want a guy who has never hit a major league home run?

by philadelphiacub on Sep 22, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Are you asking me or Lou?

I realize your question is probably rhetorical, but if not, I have already stated my preference.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 23, 2008 4:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Hoffpauir...

…can hit, but he hasn’t hit for any period of time at the ML level and that will be the prime factor in how Lou judges who he keeps. Grabbing a bat in the 9th during a tight playoff game, is not something I would bank Hoffpauir responding to.

I know Lou likes him because he likes left handed hitters and Hoffpauir has battled for a long time to get his shot.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 23, 2008 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

I just wonder how Lou

is going to evaluate Pie, Dome and Hoffpauir when the next three games feature LH starters for the opponent. They all stepped up yesterday, but none are in the lineup tonight because of their handedness…

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 5:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I'd almost bet...

…Lou is 90% sure who he wants on the post-season roster right now. Granted, there may be one position player and one pitcher he is not certain about, and I would think who they play will determine who that is vs what they do this week.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 22, 2008 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree

But I do think the poster who said that position player wise this is just about picking 2 out of Ward, Pie and Hoff is probably correct. I would pick Ward and Pie. I believe Lou will pick Ward, but he has been down on Pie and high on Hoff earlier in the season, so I’m not convinced Hoff has no chance.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you have Ward...

..you don’t need Hoffpauir and again, I don’t see Lou passing on experience (and someone who has had success in that role) to go with Hoffpauir.

Pie adds a completely different dimension – speed and late inning defense and those are good things in the playoffs.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 22, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

I think in the end, Lou will see it this way too. But he’ll have a hard time over the decision nonetheless — because he has made it clear that Hoff is a personal favorite.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

My thoughts begin with "giving the Cubs the best chance to win"

Most of those decisions are made on the whole barring an unfortunate injury.

On the margins where often a player rises unexpectedly and becomes dominant in a series or instrumental.

The only margins in the position players are CF, RF and 2B. Depending Fukudome’s play the next 4-5 games will determine much of that where actually the cubs are stronger with Fukudome playing and Fontenot coming off the bench. This is both defensively and if Fukudome is hitting like April and May….no contest——REMEMBER PITCHING & DEFENSE wins championships—-offense fills up blogs and boards space.

Now CF is where one of the players can offensively be an impact in the series. Edmonds is a wild card….Johnson is energy and playing the game right.

Now I disagree with Hoffpauir over Ward—-it is sentimental but Ward is experienced and will have 2 or 3 AB’s this series and he will work a count and make a pass at a ball in his zone. The marginal 25 th player is Pie, he has speed for a late inning pinch runner without burning a Cedeno or Fontenot or Johnson and he can double switch for a pitcher and improve the defense for a few late innings. Those are the best chance on the field.

Pitching——I think he goes Dempster game 1 and Harden goes game 2(they ares lined up right now for a perfect rotation) Zambrano game 3. Harden is perfect in a 5th game role. Dempster could come back with 3 days (he was a reliever ) while Harden would be on a 4-game rest. Zambrano is hurt and shaky.

Now if the Cubs go with 3 starters than Lilly and Marquis would be used in the relief role, Marquis probably the long man in case of a early game blow out, Lilly in a left handed relief role. This means do the Cubs carry Marshall instead of a position player. I can see Marshall for the next series but Piniella will have a fast hook with 8 relievers.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Sep 22, 2008 5:07 PM CDT reply actions  

The pitching rotation...

…is the one thing that is probably up in the air right now. Depending on who the Cubs play, you may see Lilly getting a start in one of the first three games, it just depends.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 22, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hope Lou doesn't trade for Brian Roberts.

Then there would be no room for DeRo… :-(

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Sep 22, 2008 5:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Guess who had the last ever AB at Yankee Stadium?

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 22, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

And let me guess... he made an out....

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Sep 22, 2008 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

An out of historic proportions

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Sep 23, 2008 4:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

here's what i would go with

C – soto Blanco
1B – dlee pie
2B – fontenot
SS – theriot cedeno
3B – ramirez
LF – soriano
CF – edmonds johnson
RF – derosa fukudome

SP1 – zambrano
SP2 – harden
SP3 – dempster
SP4 – lilly

LM – marquis
RP – marshall
RP – gaudin
RP – cotts
RP – guzman (i love the power arms in the playoffs)
SU – samardija
SU – marmol
CL – wood

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Sep 22, 2008 6:18 PM CDT reply actions  

No way...

No way would they carry 12 pitchers. Especially not in the Divisional Series, MAYBE in the Championship Series, but probably not even then.

You also left off one of either Ward or Hoffpauir. I think it has to be Ward, he’s a veteran and that counts in big ABs in October. And while Micah is crushing Daryle in the batting average department, he’s a AAA veteran who is striking out a TON while he’s up in MLB. Ward consistently makes contact and is still a good OBP guy. Contact could be really huge in advancing the runner or driving a guy in from 3rd, I wouldn’t trust Hoff in those spots.

I like Guzman, but I don’t think Lou does and I can’t really blame him, it’s not like Angel has torn it up recently. Spellcheck isn’t a lock to make the roster either, but I think Lou likes him.

I think replace Guzman with Ward and your 25 is right (although they may go with a 3-man rotation in the NLDS).

One thing for all to consider is that it’s not a lock by any means that Howry is left off the roster. My bet is that he’s going to pitch in at least 4 of the games in the last week to give him a chance to earn his way on. Lou likes the veteran presence, and he’s going to get every opportunity to work his way into the mix. It’s very possible that Lou would take Howry over Marquis (at least in the 1st round), which I wouldn’t agree with at all, but Lou likes Bobby and doesn’t like Jason.

by WittyUserName on Sep 22, 2008 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

leaving ward off was a mistake

my bad

correct me if i’m wrong, but i thought once you set your playoff roster, it was set in stone unless of an injury….? so i set my lineup for the 7 game series

so if i’m wrong, let’s hear your 25?

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Sep 22, 2008 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I believe...

you can reset it after each series. I’m not sure about the DL and such.

by blueapple on Sep 22, 2008 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

Change between series

I believe, I could be wrong though, that you can change your 25 man (to others who are eligible) between series of the playoffs. If the Cubs are fortunate enough to get past the NLDS they would get to change the roster for the NLCS.

I think I’d go with the same 25 guys as who mentioned, but I’d replace Guzman with Ward, as I think Angel would be a bit redundant with Shark and Marmol in a short series.

The big decision will be whether or not they go with a 3-man rotation in the NLDS. I think if the Mets win the WC then the Cubs have to start Ted Lilly in that series. The Mets don’t hit lefties very well, and it might serve the rotation well to break up the mid 90’s heat with a soft tossing lefty. But against the Brewers or Phillies, Lilly should be left in the pen to face Howard / Fielder. You don’t want Lilly starting against teams who rely on the homer since he gives up so many. Especially don’t want him pitching in Philly.

I have no idea if Lou will go with a 3 or 4 man rotation in the NLDS. I think if it’s Philly or Milwaukee, it’s easy and you just put Lilly in the pen. But if it’s the Mets I can see him wanting to start Lilly for a game. If it’s a 3-man then there’s the obvious decision of who don’t you want to bring back on short rest.

One more time, I’m not ready to write off Howry as a possibility. I wouldn’t take him, and neither would most of any of us, but Lou may give him enough chances in the last week to earn a spot.

by WittyUserName on Sep 23, 2008 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

I love having Demp start game 1

and then pitch out of the bullpen in game 3/4.

"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott

by Reddevil on Sep 22, 2008 9:14 PM CDT reply actions  

playoff rosters

I’ll try to state this as simply as possible:

1. Each team is allowed 25 players for each post-season series and teams can adjust their rosters between series.

2. Players are eligible for the playoff rosters if they’re (1) on the active roster as of September 1st, (2) on the disabled list as of September 1st, or (3) on the 40-man roster on September 1st and are subsequently named to replace a player that was on the disabled list as of September 1st.

The Cubs had four players on the DL on 9/1 (Lieber, Guzman, Gaudin, and Rich Hill) so all those guys are eligible without any strings attached. If those players are still “unable to perform”, they have the option of adding anybody on their 40-man roster, as of 9/1, to replace those four, even if it’s at the expense of somebody that was healthy and active on the same date. For example, Howry was active on 9/1 but Pie can be named as a replacement for Rich Hill, thus bumping Howry off the playoff roster.

Additionally, the roster can be adjusted between post-season series, so they can essentially create three different 25-man rosters for each series provided that the players fall into the above categories.

Finally, if injuries occur during the post-season that cannot be covered positionally by a player from the 9/1 version of the 40-man roster, a team can add an otherwise ineligible player provided that (1) the player was in the organization before 9/1, (2) plays the same position as the injured player, and (3) the roster change is approved by the commissioner. That’s super-complicated-sounding but it basically means that if Soto or Blanco gets hurt, they can replace him with Koyie Hill even though Hill won’t otherwise be eligible. The only instance where I can recall this happening was in 2006, when the A’s added a guy named Mark Kiger to their roster, giving him his debut during the LCS.

"Some people will look at a glass of water and say it's half-empty, others will look at it and it's half-full. A Cubs fan looks at the same glass and asks, "When's it gonna spill?" - Mike Royko

by LaddieRenfroe on Sep 23, 2008 5:22 AM CDT reply actions  

I hate having to reply to my own post but...

1. I’d probably remove the first line within the body of the post, “as simply as possible”, which sounds all authoritative (see below) and because the rules on this subject are so byzantine that stating them correctly is impossible to do simply.

And…

2. Because the rules are so complex, I probably made a mistake somewhere, either technically or in an explanation (Koyie Hill’s roster status as of 9/1?).

"Some people will look at a glass of water and say it's half-empty, others will look at it and it's half-full. A Cubs fan looks at the same glass and asks, "When's it gonna spill?" - Mike Royko

by LaddieRenfroe on Sep 23, 2008 5:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

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