n/t

if you’re talking about his 5-year projections, his production would decline over the next few years… if Hoffpauir were an every day player this, I would suspect he would hit around .280, possibly lower. The only thing that would make me cry small sample size about Hoffpauir is low walk-strike out ratio. In fact, his eqa for Iowa this year was .278. Sabrmetrics aside, Hoffpauir’s true value will be seen in the post-season if he makes the roster. He is 28 years old, Lee is signed with the team for a few more years, Hoffpauir could make great trade bait in the offseason, if not, he will most likely be a pinch hitter next year for the Cubs considering Ward and Blanco won’t be in a cub uniform next season. a .250 swing in batting average in your projections is CLEARLY indicative of small-sample size. If you took Jay Bruce’s first 62 at bats, it would look fairly similar, except that Bruce hit for more power. While I don’t dislike Hoffpauir, I think he is too old of a player for me to rally behind him as a power threat for future cub’s teams. I do however, like Hoffpauir’s fly-ball ratio, and the fact that he is a lefty. Daryle Ward, while having a low batting average, knows how to take his walks, he is a very patient hitter despite sitting on the bench most of the year. I think we should look into Cedeno as possible losing a roster-spot for the playoffs, considering he is basically useless, unless theriot gets hurt.

he has gone his first 62 AB’s with a great batting average…

if he keeps it up for 200 AB’s, he will make the all-star team
if he keeps it up for 500 AB’s, he will win a batting title

the disparity between great hitters and average hitters are so large in Baseball, one could only assume Micah’s stats will decline, and regress to the mean. Considering the difference between a .260 hitter to a .280 hitter… and then a .280 hitter to a .300 hitter… I will love to see how Hoffpauir performs next year. Ryan also made a good point, he is a defensive liability. Although I disagree with him about Kosuke… I’d like to see Dero play right and have fontenot play second.

that stat indicates how “hot” that particular player can get in a short period of time… for instance, in the first month of the season, in 94 ABs, Theriot batted an obscene .457 … that should illustrate just how small of a sample size 100 AB’s really are. Hoffpauir only has 62… and about 70 PA. a nearly .250 percentage point swing for Hoffpauir is awful because in a course of a season, a batter’s average true swing won’t be anymore than .25 percentage points. I’ve said this before, baseball is a game of failure.

As sabermetrics become more mainstream, better stats will become available to truly value a player’s output, regardless of playing time… just like the ERA is not indicative of a relief pitcher’s performance, either is BA for a part time player such as Hoffpauir. Same thing goes for Wonder Hamster, as he mostly only comes to bat when the splits favor him… same for Johnson and Edmonds.

I know more than a few people who think Hoffpauir should be an everyday player because they see his BA, and this thread pretty much would end all debate on that.