NLDS starting rotation named
by cubswynn on Sep 26, 2008 7:57 PM CDT
24 comments
I for one cannot more pleased with this announcement.
It will go, Dempster, Z, Harden, Lilly (if needed).
I hate to say I told you so (okay no I don't haha), but I have been saying this should be the way it goes since Dempster was announced as the Game 1 starter.
I think this does a lot of good things. Dempster (our best pitcher this year) gets to throw at home.
Z gets the teams confidence of the team and doesn't have to deal with the mind game opposing fans will throw at him.
Harden (to me) had to go in one of the first three games. For me, 5 game series are far too short to wait around for game four to throw him. Think of it this way, if the unthinkable happened and the Cubs were swept, how would you feel if Rich never got a chance to pitch in the playoffs?!
This is no way a diss to Lilly, but I think he is clearly not on the same level as the aforementioned Big Three.
One more note, I still think Z and Harden still could be flipped depending on if one game is a night game and the other is not.
What are your thoughts? I know Al in particular seemed to think Lilly should go in Game 2. After all this is a blog and I'm always interested in the opinions of others. Until then, lets beat some Brewers BABY!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Lets look at it like this...
If the Brewers win tonight (and the Mets lose, which seems likely if they havent already) they’ll have a one game lead on the Mets for the Wild Card. This would leave the Mets on the outside of the playoff hunt and would give the Cubs a first round series against the Dodgers.
So, it seems logical to look at the stats of the starting pitchers against the Dodgers and judge this decision based on those statistics… So…
Dempster – 1-0, 2 GS, 2.92 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 12.1 IP. The Cubs won both of Dempster’s starts against the Dodgers. Dempster looked solid against the Dodgers at Wrigley, when he went 7 and only gave up 1 earned run despite allowing 10 (!!) baserunners. In his start in LA, he threw 5.1 uninspired innings while allowing 3 runs and 7 runners.
Zambrano – 0-1, 2 GS, 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 14.2 IP. Zambrano threw 8 solid innings against the Dodgers at Wrigley, allowing 10 baserunners and just one run to score. In LA the Dodgers touched up Zambrano for 7 runs in a 6.2 inning effort that saw Zambrano allow 14 baserunners.
Ted Lilly and Rich Harden didnt face the Dodgers this year.
Based on their statistics in starts against the Dodgers at Wrigley, it seems logical to go with the two starting pitchers that performed the best in that same situation during the regular season.
As for games 3 and 4, Harden has pitched quite well since joining the Cubs and has pitched well against the few Dodgers he has faced this season (Manny is 3-for-11 and Blake is 0-for-8). A few more Dodgers have faced Lilly, as would be suspected given his year in the NL last season, but none have hit him too hard (Manny is 11-for-42).
Obviously this just looks at how the Cubs’ rotation stacks up against the Dodgers, but as it stands today I’m ok with the rotation that Lou has set.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Sep 26, 2008 10:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If we play LA I'd rather see Z and Lily pitch games 3-4 in LA.
by DudeVf11 on Sep 26, 2008 10:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
"I'll take one in the mouth over the eyes any day". - AJ Pierzynski
http://lostinthevines.blogspot.com/
by lostinthevines on Sep 27, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't forget
the dodgers team we played in the regular season is a completely different team than it is now. Judging them on how they hit against us back in may and june is not really indicative of how they will play in October. The post-season is completely independent to the regular season… I am not afraid of the Dodgers. They remind me of our Cubs team last year. They are not very patient at the plate, with the exception of the 16 IBB’s to Manny, he would have a very pedestrian OBP (pedestrian considering he is batting near .400)…
Russell Martin and Ethier take their walks, but that’s about it.
Kemp is a good player, but he is a strikeout candidate. He has about 30 more strikeouts than the leading strikeout candidate on our team, and with our pitching rotation that favors the strikeout, advantage us.
The Dodgers do steal a lot of bases, but again, if you look at that stat you have to look at the whole picture. There aren’t many great defensive catchers in the NL West, and no one at the dodgers has better than a 75% success rate, which in a playoff game, isn’t that good.
As long as our pitchers don’t give up a lot of walks or errors, we should be fine. We are a much superior team than they are. Let them beat themselves, and if we play our game, we will win the series.
As far as Manny is concerned, I don’t think there is one playoff team who doesn’t have a single player who is comparable. We have beaten the Cardinals before and they have Pujols, the Phillies have Howard and Utley, and the brewers have Braun and Fielder… we just can’t let manny beat us.
Outside of Manny, their power is Nil.
Their pitching is their strong-suit. Home field advantage could be very important if we manage to win the first game… I’d feel very confident if we beat Lowe and than had to face Billingsley or Kuroda. After game 1 regardless if we win or lose, the advantage turns to us, as we have the best #2 and #3 pitchers… and they will most likely pitch Derek Lowe on short rest than pitching Kershaw, who I am guessing we would tee off of.
by scarymonsters85 on Sep 26, 2008 10:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks, it
keeps my mind off of the sloppy baseball we have been playing… I understand Lou still wants to win regular season ball games, but why is Koyie Hill catching when he can’t hit for beans, and well, he can’t really catch either. Henry Blanco needs playing time.
by scarymonsters85 on Sep 26, 2008 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly think...
…that if the Cubs win game 1 they’ll be just fine. If they lose… oh boy.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Sep 27, 2008 1:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Home field is key...
…because the Dodger’s pitching staff has completely different numbers on the road vs home. At home, their ERA is 3.01 vs 4.45 on the road. That is a huge difference, and shows how much of a pitchers park Dodger stadium is.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Sep 27, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Mind games"?
Yeah, the “mind games” they threw at Z in Arizona last year really affected him.
The Cubs have had a good starting rotation all year, with only a few blips. In reality, it doesn’t matter who starts in what order. Every one of these pitchers can win.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 27, 2008 4:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
While I agree...
…I honestly believe that Arizona would have held an edge because of the way they beat the Cubs last year. As it is, the DBacks are out of the playoffs and the Cubs SHOULD be favored to win any series against another NL team.
Of course it doesnt matter who’s favored. It only matters which teams can find a way to win each series.
One thing you learned as a Cubs fan: when you bought you ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth.
Joe Garagiola
by Ryan at Cubshub on Sep 27, 2008 4:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
And as you well know, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The best teams should indeed be favored. But they don’t always win.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 27, 2008 5:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely "mind games"
I don’t even know where to start with my response. Al you ripped people for taking Hoff’s small sample size and blowing it out of proportion, now you take ONE start by Z in the postseason and do the exact same thing.
It’s my opinion that something is going on with Z mentally right now and he is not the same guy he was heading into last year’s playoffs. Would you rather have him start at home with a friendly crowd or on the road with a rowdy crowd? Combine that with the “damage” it would do to Z’s ego if he didn’t start game two and this was clearly the right choice.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Sep 27, 2008 7:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a minute.
YOU are the one who brought up the “mind games”.
Clearly, Z was affected by his grandmother’s death and that’s why his start vs. the Cardinals was so bad. I don’t think any of the Mets fans affected his start the other night — he just lost command. It shouldn’t matter where he starts. It didn’t affect him last year, and it shouldn’t now.
The comparison to Hoffpauir’s game is irrelevant. People were talking about him like the second coming of Babe Ruth based on one game. You and I both know that’s not true.
I think we can both agree on this: we hope Z is on his game next Thursday. He has to be.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 27, 2008 7:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never, but NEVER, put ketchup on a hot dog.
by CaliCub on Sep 27, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
You keep referring to “last year” as if it’s the end-all-to-be-all argument when it comes to Z on the road. That was ONE (I believe he’s only made 3, ‘03 Braves, ’03 Marlins, ’07 Dbacks) playoff start! Z has not been good lately and particularly not good on the road lately (no I’m not counting Miller as being a "road game).
So back to my original point, if you were Lou and you could pitch Z on the road or at home, wouldn’t you baby him and go with the home start? Lilly and Harden clearly don’t need that kind of attention.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Sep 27, 2008 8:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
sorry that should have been a reply
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Sep 27, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lilly doesn't?
Hmmm. Just where did he slam that glove down last year? It wasn’t at Wrigley.
Point is… last year was then, this is now. This is a different team, a different attitude. Hope Z has his A game on Thursday night (or afternoon, as the case may be.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 27, 2008 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lilly Should Benefit Pitching in LA
He’s a flyball pitcher and Dodger Stadium plays as a pitcher’s park (for the most part).
Never, but NEVER, put ketchup on a hot dog.
by CaliCub on Sep 27, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, maybe that's what Lou was thinking.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Sep 27, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point
Reed Ballgame - best CF in the MLB
by californiachicagoan on Sep 27, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely not
Just because Lilly slammed his glove down, doesn’t mean he needs to be handled with kid gloves like Z does. I think at this point Z would be well-served to pitch at homes in the front of the friendlies instead of on the road where the opposing fans can get into his head. Am I saying Z isn’t capable of preforming well on the road? No.
I never said this was last year’s team, not sure where that came from. In fact you’re the one that keeps referencing last year’s NLDS.
But yeah let’s agree Z is going to get his head straight and to meet back here Thursday night to discuss his great outing. Agreed?
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Sep 27, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In April, who HONESTLY thought Dempster would start our first playoff game
haah!
2008 Cubs: Who needs nine innings, when you only need a 7th?
by Chanman25 on Sep 27, 2008 1:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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