My Cubs Top 50 prospects, 1-14

Let’s see, the Top 50, with some small adjustments and the Indians players added. Always contemplating. As noted, tried to balance out based on a variety of factors, readiness, upside, performance, fit, and so forth.

1. Josh Vitters, B+
2. Jeff Samardzija, B
3. Jay Jackson, B-
4. Andrew Cashner, B-
5. Ryan Flaherty, B-
6. Welington Castillo, B-
7. Jovan Rosa, B-
8. Tyler Colvin, C+
9. Starlin Castro, C+
10. Hak-Ju Lee, C+.

11. Jeff Stevens, RP, C+.

I had a tough time figuring out where to place him. Stevens was the arm the Indians received in that disastrous Brandon Phillips deal. He was actually decent as a starter in 2006 after joining Cleveland, going 7-3 with a 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) in Low A, with a 7 K rate and a 2 walk rate. Not bad. In 2007, the Indians shifted him to the pen, and he took off a bit. He still had his excellent control, and when he made the jump from High A to AA, his K rate climbed to the 12 range. 2008 saw more of the same, as he went 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 AA innings, with a 11.62 K rate. The walks, though, rose to a 3.45 rate. He moved to AAA, logging 29.2 innings with a 13.35 K rate, although the walk rate moved up some more, to 4.85. In 2007 and 2008, Stevens was on Team USA in the World Championships and the Olympics. He’s an intriguing late inning arm that has reportedly been more consistent in the mid-90’s while offering a good curve. An Indians prospect site suggests he has a cutter/change/slider as well. My biggest concern is that walk rate, which initially had me thinking of him in the 15-35 range. That said, is this a byproduct from trying out different pitches? The stuff is still there. At the end of the day, he’s ready, he’s a notch above Kevin Hart, and I can’t help but think that he’s a more advanced version of Dan McDaniel, a guy who could’ve been a starter but both were put in the pen to accelerate their development. Thus, after further consideration, I’m going with the 11 slot for him for now, and a C+. Another guy he feels like, to me, is Kevin Gregg, as you see Stevens effectiveness against lefties. If Stevens is with us, I’m thinking AAA and potential callup, as he’s on the 40 man.

12. Dan McDaniel, C+.
13. Mitch Atkins, C+.
14. Esmailin Caridad, C+.
15. Micah Hoffpauir, C+.
16. Dae-Eun Rhee*.
17. Kevin Hart.
18. Brandon Guyer.
19. Casey Coleman.
20. Junior Lake.
21. Aaron Shafer

22. Chris Carpenter.
23. Larry Suarez.

Another small change – Carpenter’s upside is still excellent and he’s more advanced than Suarez. Despite his poor start, I think Carpenter deserves the benefit of the doubt and the edge.

24. Tony Thomas
25. Casey Lambert
26. Rocky Roquet

27. Alessandro Maestri
28. James Russell
29. Justin Bristow
30. Nate Spears

Some more changes. The upside of the arms was too much for me to pass on in the end, so slid Spears down.

31. Jeremy Papelbon
32. Nate Samson
33. Matt Cerda
34. Jeff Antigua

Some wholesale changes from here on out.

35. Marquez Smith – I think, after further consideration, I was undervaluing him. Here’s a versatile talent with an intriguing bat. I wouldn’t mind seeing him used in RF if his bat develops.

37. Jake Fox
37. Darwin Barney
38. Jose Ascanio
39. Randy Wells – Slides down because, well, his value is his readiness and ability to be a long man. Not exactly assets that really scream out in value. Ascanio has a higher upside arm, Barney is at a more critical position, and Jake Fox still offers some pop.

40. John Gaub, LHP

My early feel on where to place Gaub puts him here. The former Golden Gopher, Gaub came out of college as a potential power lefty that, on occasion, showed a plus curve and change. He dropped in the 2006 draft, though, due to injury. 2008 was his first full season, only logging 4 innings in the regular season of 2007. Gaub was dominant in low A, with a 2.23 FIP in 64 innings, all relief appearances, with 100 K’s. That’s a 14.06 K rate. The 4.5 Walk rate is a bit troublesome. That said, take things with a grain of salt. Yes, he was injured, but he was still a college arm with a plus breaking ball. That racks up K’s in the minors. According to Tony Lastoria, Gaub throws in the low 90’s now, never regaining his collegiate velocity fully. The curve was scrapped for a slider, which has to be good to rack up those K’s, and he has a junk changeup. Gaub reminds you of guys like Casey Lambert and Rich Hill. The development of the change would make him a borderline starter, but the better bet is that he adds to our lefty minor league depth. Definite command issues, and Lastoria makes it sound liIf he ever gets his college velo, then he becomes really intriguing. If he stays with us, I imagine he’ll start 2009 off in High A Daytona as a pen arm, unless they try him as a starter again.

41. Brian Schlitter. I think I’m underrating the development of his slider. Offers more late inning potential than Parker or Latham.

42. Robert Hernandez. A lot of work, but still a potentially intriguing young starting caliber arm.

43. Marcos Mateo
44. Blake Parker – Am I overvaluing pen arms?
45. Jordan Latham – Am I overvaluing pen arms?
46. Drew Rundle
47. Dylan Johnston
48. Logan Watkins. Very raw, but showed some positive signs.

49. Chris Archer, P.

My initial gut feeling on where to place Archer finds him at the end of a top 50 list. Like Gaub, he was a 2006 pick, a guy that came out of HS with a plus curve. He’s got a good 6’3" frame that he may fill out a bit more. Lastoria suggests that the plus curve is still there, and that the fastball velo sits in the low-90’s, with room to grow. He’s still got work, and Lastoria suggests that delivery/mechanical issues may need to be addressed, along with the changeup’s development. If he can get his command under control, he could be an excellent rotation prospect in a few years. A high upside arm, if he’s in our organization, I think we’ll play it safe and start him at Peoria.

50. Nelson Perez. So much upside, so raw.

Off the list -

Josh Harrison – A tough bump, but akin to leaving a guy like Campana off, the question with Harrison is does he have the skillset to really dominate? I mean, Campana has the elite speed. Harrison’s a baller, for lack of a better word, a tough, scrappy player, but he’s far away and he’s more Ryan Theriot-mold than, say, a Brian Roberts mold.

Greg Reinhard, Hung-Wen Chen – Fringe rotation arms that don’t look to be anything more than middle relief options.

I’m wondering if Fox and Wells need to be dumped.

drool at Jay Jackson’s potential. And Aaron Shinshano’s article on Hak-ju Lee was very intriguing. I hope they give Shark a chance to start this year and don’t give up on him to easily.

Thanks for the lists they are very interesting and I am sure they took some time to put together. It’s nice to see this kind of quality and time put into a post.

You were right when you said that Samardzija fit the scouting directors criteria, because in an article when they announced the signing of Samardzija, Hendry said that Samardzija was number 1 on the scouting directors list. in the Tribune.
Rosa along with Latham and Samson (drafted at the time because he was signed to go to Daytona Beach cc) we’re all drafted as DNF’s which was pretty astute at that time because it was the last yr of the DNF. I’m like you in one sense that Rosa has good potential, but reading into this I dont think his 3rd base days are done yet. I was reading in an article that Rosa hands are good and he’s got plus arm strength, its all in his footwork and the fact that he’s really grown since he signed from 195 lbs to about 220/225 and still putting his body control together on a 6’4/6’5 frame and the fact that he played all yr as a 20 yr old in Peoria.

Approximately, where would you have ranked Jose Ceda, if he was still with us?

(P.S. Thanks for all the hard work.)

Same with Donaldson please?

Once again thank you with the list, I’m sure you spent alot of time on this. Next your not nuts for considering Parker and Latham because setup relievers even thou a dime a dozen are very important and these pitcherss have good value as far as thats concerned and with that thought in mind here a few players/pitchers to keep in mind.
Pitchers, Julio Pena, Hatley, Searle, Leverton, Beliveau (had more swings and misses on his pitches than anyone in short season ball last yr) Blackford, Camp, Clevenger, Aducci and speaking of setups types that converted Muyco and Sommer and possibly late next yr to watch for Kyler Burke if he doesnt hit to go to the mound.

I am interested in what you think our lineup and rotation will look like in the future, lets say 2011-12ish.

But man o’ man is the Cub system in lousy shape. To be very honest the only three names on that top 15 who I think are really worth talking about are Jackson, Cashner and Sarmardzija. And even with the Shark I’m afraid the hype overwhelms the actual impact he will ever have in the big leagues. I’m just not sold on him being anything more than a middle reliever, but we’ll see.

I can’t comment on Josh Vitters (and neither can anybody else) until this kid actually logs time in low A ball. Enormously difficult to project anything on Vitters right now.

Before this thread disappears. So, my first one would be at catcher.

Our system catching depth is better than people give it credit for. Sure, there’s stopgaps in AAA, but eh, there’s stopgaps for most AAA teams. Castillo likely starts at AA, where, if he can go from a good to great defensive catcher, and improve his offense, he’ll rocket up the charts. Steve Clevenger likely starts at High A. There’s a chance the Cubs waste him quite a bit at 1st again, but if he’s catching, the hope is to improve his receiving abilities to the point where his lefty bat becomes somewhat intirguing. If Luis Flores can hit even a tiny bit, and he has some pop, he could be a potential backup backstop in the pros as his defensive abilities are rock solid. I hope Bob imparts some wisdom and ability on Michael, who shows some potential. There’s a couple kids in DSL that looked intriguing, but as noted, I don’t know enough. Blake Lalli is a personal favorite, a guy whose receiving skills are below average, but if his bat plays, has a shot. If someone wanted to name Lalli, Clevenger, Flores, Brenly as sleepers, I’d buy it.

That said, my first sleeper is Carlos Perez. At a sturdy 6 feet, 200 plus pounds, Perez, a righty who won’t turn 22 until after the 09 campaign, has solid tools. He might just be a better defensive receiver than Castillo or Flores (it’s probably close, and Flores probably is a better game caller from what I understand). There’s some pop in Carlos’ frame as well, but it might take time for it to materialize. He shows passable discipline. He’s coming off a decent season in Boise, posting a .280/.337/.366 line. Consistency with his swing and overall development could make Carlos Perez a guy to watch in 2009. He’ll likely start in Peoria, so I’d caution against reading too much into the numbers, as the MWL isn’t a friendly hitting environment.

This is either a position that’s set, if you think Vitters will move to first, or a position with a lot of question marks. In AAA, we’ll likely be trotting out some sort of fringe prospect, perhaps Jake Fox. A useful asset that might be a guy who fills a 13th man off the bench role, or a AAA anchor. In AA, we’ll likely see Russ Canzler. He had a strong 2nd half, so it is worth watching, but that said, he’s still likely a fringe prospect. At Daytona, we’ll likely see Jovan Rosa handling some of the first base duties. He is definitely someone to watch for me, so hard to claim he’s a sleeper. Steve Clevenger may see some time at first. Ryan Keedy will see some time at Peoria, and he has a “magic wand” (saw that in a report somewhere, will look for it later). He’s in that Lyle Overbay/Mark Grace mold if he makes it up, a guy who will make contact but limited power.

My sleeper/breakout will be a well known name, though. Rebel Ridling was our 25th round pick from Oklahoma State. He’s a big, strapping guy, 6’4" 230 who will be 23 early in the 2009 campaign. He can play some OF, and with Keedy likely there as well, both Rebel and Ryan may see some time in LF (along with the likely 2nd base tandem of Harrison/Opitz). While Keedy was the higher draft pick, his questionable power makes me wonder if he can make this up. Rebel had a hot 71 AB’s in Boise that led to him moving up to Peoria. There, he ran into some problems, some bad luck, but a 30% K rate is just bad. He needs to cut down on those K’s. But he offers power that is lacking in the system, and one hopes that with more time with wooden bats, the Rebel (and what a great name) might be able to make his move up through tightening up his swing a bit and dropping that K rate. Of course, he could turn out to be Ryan Norwood.
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There are some guys in the lower levels, like a Jericho Jones/Nelson Perez that could handle some first base duties, as first base can be a dumping ground. Two other guys to mention would be Blake Lalli and Luis Bautista. Age is an overrated thing, but it does play a role, as both of these guys will be old for their level, which isn’t really fair to them as it isn’t like they have been languishing in the system as both were college guys. Lalli can handle it behind the plate a bit more than Luis, and Blake could be perhaps utilized in the OF as well, along with first. Both have bats that have played so far, showing some pop and contact ability, along with perhaps a tad more power that could be unlocked. My question is, though, whether either will get enough PT anywhere to let their bat grow. Now, if Marquez Smith gets bumped to AA, then maybe Rosa goes back to third and Luis gets regular time at first. If not, where’s Luis getting his AB’s at. As for Lalli, he likely won’t beat out Castillo for the regular catching duties, so he might have to wait until Castillo moves up. Can he squeeze Canzler out at first, or force his way into the OF?

Thanks again!

I am awaiting delivery of my BA prospects book and will be interested to see how they compare to your list.

Is arguably the deepest position in the system. At AAA, we’ll see a decent-capable Nate Spears, a guy who looks like a potential utility infielder in the bigs, but with our infield depth, that may be with another organization in the future. In AA, we’ll see Tony Thomas, a guy who still has offensive potential to intrigue, but has to take a step forward. Daytona is a tough call right now. We could see Nate Samson or Ryan Flaherty. Maybe they slow play Flaherty and leave Samson at short. If that happens, we could perhaps see Josh Harrison. Down in Peoria, there’s a chance we see Harrison. Junior Lake or Dwayne Kemp could figure in the mix. There’s some util options in the mix.

Sleeper/Breakout Candidate: Jake Opitz.

I was a huge fan of our 12th round selection from Nebraska. Sure, the last Nebraska infielder didn’t turn out as well after being borderline intriguing out of college. That said, hey, potential always offers intrigue, and in Opitz’s case, we have a potential lefty 2nd baseman that is a solid glove with some potential for plus positional power. What’s not to like. Okay, so what is the problem?

a) Josh Harrison – Fellow 08 pick is likely to see time in Peoria, which is where Opitz likely goes.

b) Ryan Flaherty – Lefty is likely headed for 2nd base, meaning Opitz is behind in the pecking order

c) Junior Lake – Young stud that oozes potential is pushing behind Opitz.

That said, he could see some LF time this year as well, and as long as he gets enough AB’s, I think he could make a push.

I guess this has shifted from a sleeper/breakout thing to more of a positional overview within the system that somewhat covers the potential outlook of each full-seasonminor league club. Maybe I should’ve made all this a separate post?

Anyhow, shortstop is a system where we finally have some excitement, but it should be tempered by the fact that those two kids are so young. At AAA, we are likely to go with a retread type, with Andres Blanco likely the option. Nate Spears may see some time at short if we envision him as a future utility player in the bigs, to help him get his feet wet. At AA, we’ll have the superbly athletic Darwin Barney, but the superbly questionable bat of his as well. He has a shot, though, of being a utility guy in the bigs as long as he can hit for anything above the mendoza line. Think somewhat Chin-lung Hu of the Dodgers, although he probably isn’t as good as Hu defensively. Peoria is a tougher guess. We could go with Flaherty at short, if we opt to give him another look there. Jake Opitz or Josh Harrison could spot there, perhaps. Marwin Gonzalez might see some time there. The best guess is that, if he doesn’t start in Peoria, Starlin Castro has a chance to be there real soon. If we go lower down, XST/Boise could have Lake/Ju, with Lake having an outside shot at Peoria before midseason perhaps. AZL is tough to figure at this point in time.

Sleeper/Breakout Guess: Nate Samson.

This one falls more into the category of sleeper than breakout, as Nate Samson had a solid 2008 campaign in Boise. As noted, Samson may not stick at short. He may be more of a utility guy in the long haul. That said, with the way the Cubs system stacks up, I think he’ll get an extra look, and there’s enough hope that he can be a Ryan Theriot-level defensive player at the position (which is meant only to say that there’s an outside chance Samson sticks). That said, Nate is coming off an excellent offensive season in the tough Midwest League, posting a solid .298/.368/.359 line with a solid 50/39 K/BB in 490 AB’s. Along with Jovan Rosa, Samson helped anchor that Peoria offense. He struggled in May and August, with the August struggles perhaps fatigue related. He did see 9 AB’s in AAA. Samson had a power spike in June and July, and considering his body has some room for growth/physical maturation, a bit more power can be expected. Any increase in power makes him exponentially more intriguing. He’s one of those guys that likely won’t ever be great, but could surprise a lot of folks as he moves up the ladder.

I’m really not sure how third base shakes out. Josh Lansford has started throwing as a pitcher, and Casey McGehee is out. On paper, AAA is open. They may bump Kyle Reynolds up, Matt Camp could see some time, maybe we bring back Matt Craig (I think he’s a minor league FA), or we sign a minor league journeyman. At AA, that’s a mixed bag as well. Kyle Reynolds could be plugged in here, Matt Matulia and Jon Mota may get some looks, and maybe Matt Camp is a thought here. I imagine that we’ll see a minor league FA signing at one of these spots … not sure where. It’s a tad early to bump Marquez Smith … I think, unless he has a strong spring. We see some depth in the lower levels. At Daytona, we’ll likely see Marquez Smith and Jovan Rosa as the main options, with Rosa perhaps getting time at 1st, and with Smith perhaps getting time at 2nd and maybe the OF? At Peoria, everyone is waiting on Josh Vitters, and he’ll probably be there unless they feel confident about him moving up to Daytona as a 3rd baseman. The org wants him to succeed at 3rd, as that’s where his value is. We could perhaps see Harrison/Opitz spot at third at times, perhaps Kemp?, maybe Flaherty if they think he can gain overall plus power (right now, he’s more solid power, which is a plus for 2nd), Junior Lake perhaps. John Contreras is a fringe corner IF talent, as of now, who likely goes the XST/Boise route this year.

Sleeper/Breakout: Marwin Gonzalez.

Okay, I’m stretching a bit … but I’m trying to avoid top talents unless I truly think they will explode through this year, and I think Smith can be okay, but I don’t know if I expect him to dominate, and I think Vitters may go through some struggles in Peoria, but in the end, I expect Josh to be fine and move to Daytona at some point. Gonzalez is a long, lean guy who has some athletic tools and his body is still filling out. Only going to be 20 next year, he slapped his way to a .278/.317/.363 line. He’ll see time at 2nd, short, and perhaps the OF, and if he makes it up, it’s more as a util option. But I could see his bat taking a step forward this year, although it may not show in the numbers (as I expect him at Peoria).

Btw, these lists aren’t meant to be all-inclusive of every single guy in the system. There will be times I miss someone.

I missed this, but Josh Kroeger signed with the White Sox a month ago.

I expected him to sign elsewhere, but the White Sox? That’s annoying, even though I don’t hate the White Sox.

This, and pitchers, are more crapshoot of sorts, as there’s just too many players and a myriad of possibilities that could happen. The following will simply be my best guess at key players. I am making the assumption that Felix Pie will be gone.

AAA – The first assumption on my list is that the two OF backups are set in the bigs – Reed Johnson and Joey Gathright. Thus, I think we will see some Brad Snyder in Iowa, where the friendly environments of the PCL could lead to some power, although he needs to improve that K-zone judgment. Jake Fox may see some time out there. I expect Sam Fuld to be in Iowa’s CF again. At some point in the season, Colvin may get a look here, but he won’t be here until summer, in all likelihood. Matt Camp may see some OF time as well. I expect a minor league FA or two to be signed. Unfortunately, Josh Kroeger is gone. Doug Deeds and Jason Dubois are FA’s, along with Andres Torres. It’s possible 1, if not both, return, as they’d have a prominent role anchoring the AAA offense in the middle, which may be enough incentive (as guys like them are simply looking for the best opportunity to showcase themselves, and Dubois needs the PCL … if one or both come back, expect them to see time at first as well). If I had to guess a starting trio at the start of the year, I’d guess Snyder, Fuld, and FA at the start of the year.

AA – This one is tougher to figure out. At some point, Tyler Colvin will be here again, but Fleita had previously indicated that he’d start in High A. Ryan Harvey may get some time as well, if he’s still in the organization (could be cut in spring). Ty Wright is likely to move up the ladder. Camp and Matulia could see AA OF time if they are there. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Blake Lalli perhaps tried out in the OF a bit if he is there. James Adduci is likely to be there. If I had to guess a starting trio at the start of the year, I’ll go with Wright/Adduci/Harvey. If Flaherty emerges quick, and forces a AA promotion (assuming Flaherty starts at Daytona), then Thomas may be moved to OF potentially.

High A – It’s possible they jump Jon Wyatt to AA, as others have speculated about, but I imagine they’ll go Wyatt back to Daytona, where he’ll perhaps start the year there. That said, I think CF will belong to Brandon Guyer, as I think the Cubs will try this experiment. LF should be Dylan Johnston at the outset, the former SS turned bulked up, slugging LF. I’ve speculated on Marquez Smith perhaps getting OF looks at some point. If I had to take an OF guess right now, I’d go Wyatt in LF, Guyer in CF, Johnston in RF, but they may flip Guyer to a corner and give Wyatt CF. Colvin is rumored to perhaps be going here when things start, the nice warm weather and all, so if he’s there, you could see some different configurations.

Low A Peoria is a tough one to figure out at this juncture. As I’ve noted Opitz/Harrison/Keedy/Ridling could all see some OF AB’s throughout the year. Drew Rundle will get another go around here, and at some point, he’s got to produce. I think Tony Campana might have CF rights here. Other guys that could figure in: Cliff Andersen (former overslot has struggled to put bat on ball), Kurt Calvert, David Macias, Ryan Sontag, Jericho Jones, and Kyler Burke could all figure in. Some of those, due to a clogged roster, will likely be at XST for a bit until movement starts to happen. If I had to guess a starting OF at the top of the year, I’d go Campana in CF, Rundle in LF and Burke in RF, but for Drew and Kyler, it’s put up time. Like Rundle, Burke showed some signs of life in the summertime at Boise.

I’ve somewhat listed some XST possibilities already. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Dwayne Kemp perhaps get some OF looks. The uber-toolsy Nelson Perez is probably on an XST-Boise route for 2009. A young guy to watch would be Kevin Soto, who has some tools to work with. If Jesus Morelli gets brought over from DSL or Albert Hernandez, they would be two guys to perhaps keep a little attention to at XST. Watkins is a guy who should get some OF time in XST, and is likely on XST-Boise this year. Wouldn’t stun me if Lake got some OF time as well. One other name to toss in the mix is Sean Hoorelbeke, the Central Michigan Chippewas former 1st baseman who offers some power potential and decent discipline.

Sleeper Candidate:

I’ll go three deep.

Tony Campana – The 401st pick in the 13th round, out of Cincinnati, is, like former Bearcat teammate Josh Harrison, an undersized, top of the order type player. He got hurt at Boise last year, and thus, spent most of the season at Arizona after he got healthy, but as a college bat, he could go to fullseason ball potentially (and a senior to boot). Unlike Harrison, Campana is more of a slap hitter, as Harrison will lift the ball a bit more (Harrison, for a comp, is somewhat like Mike Fontenot in some regards, or at least, I think of them in somewhat similar regards). Campana scouting reports indicated that he’s a hard worker, and supposedly, his swing has shortened, which should help him out. He has one huge difference, though, from Harrison, and that is, Campana has elite speed. He’s often compared to Juan Pierre, which isn’t the worst thing when you factor in how few guys reach the bigs. He’s got decent discipline and obviously has the range, although he’s like Pierre and Damon in the arm regard. I can see Campana, if he starts in A ball, perhaps doing real well and perhaps threatening as an option in Tennessee by the summertime BUT I think, unless he gets a bit more lift on his balls, his ML future, IF he gets there, is as a 4th OF type that offers pinch running help.

Jericho Jones – This comes with the caveat that he has to get the AB’s. The 20th round, 611th overall pick from Louisiana Tech, Jericho really caught a lot of hype in the summertime due to strong numbers in AZL, but he’s not a finished product. His AZL numbers were boosted by a nice stretch in the middle. Like a lot of Wilken draft picks, he was a two way guy who flashed solid pitching potential, but the Cubs wanted his power bat, as the system was lacking in it. His body can get bigger, though, so there’s a lot of untapped potential. For a potential power hitter, he did hit a high percentage of ground balls in AZL, so it’s worth watching how he smooths out his swing. He’s got decent speed and a strong arm, so there’s tools.

Sean Hoorelbeke – I don’t know why the Chippewas former first baseman doesn’t get a bit more attention. I’m at fault as well, as I completely forgot about him until doing this. The 33rd round pick is a solidly built 6’1" 220ish guy who comes from good genetic stock (cousins are in the Dodgers organization). He’s displayed decent discipline (38/23 K/BB at Boise in 128 AB’s). The fact that he was bumped up was a bit telling, when guys like Perez and Jones were hammering the ball, but showing bigger flaws. Hoorelbeke doesn’t have the ceiling of either of those guys, but he still has decent potential. Like Ryan Keedy, he is a bit more gap power than HR power right now, and his body is probably close to maxed out, so watching his power development will be key, but unlike Jones, his swing is better and he lifts the ball a bit more consistently than Jericho.

• Note: I know I picked 3 lower level guys, and here’s the thing – I also know that the chances of all three getting enough AB’s may be slim. So … am I somewhat hedging my bets? Perhaps!

Breakout Candidate: Brandon Guyer

The difference between Guyer and Colvin? Well, outside of the handedness, it’s the round and the power … as Colvin has the round, but Guyer has the power. Okay, it’s not that simple, but my point is, Guyer is somewhat lost in the mix at times, despite being a relatively high pick. Yes, I know, he’s top 20 for me, so really, can a top 20 breakout? I think so, particularly if he can handle CF. Even if he is in LF, if his bat comes together, watch out. If both Colvin and Guyer max out, Colvin may be the better average hitter, but Guyer has the pop. Look at Guyer’s months – not once did he have a month of SLG below .462. Had he qualified, Guyer’s .500 SLG would’ve ranked 2nd in the MWL. That’s pop, folks, and for the solidly built 6’1" 210 pounder, there portends the potential for more pop than he’s shown. Post ASB, he posted a .286/.352/.513 line. As expected, for a power hitter, he’s a FB guy. I couldn’t rank him higher, as July really propelled his stats, so I’d like to see some more consistency. He’s got some speed, going 22/29 in SB Attempts. He’s got to cut down on the K’s. A bit of hyperbole, but if the former HS football player puts it together, we’ve got a stud bat, even if he’s in LF. And now … he’s escaping the unfriendly confines of the MWL for the warm weather of Daytona to start, as long as he stays healthy (there’s some health issues, but I don’t recall off the top). If he can handle CF, and he might be a case of a guy who could perhaps handle CF in his youth but eventually move to the corners, AND his bat comes through … WHOA. Okay, now I’m going overboard, but still, you get the point.

Anyhow, some SP guesses for each of the 4 full season minor league squads (Iowa/Tennessee/Daytona/Peoria) at the start of the season. I’ll make a separate post on other pitchers later, some of them who may end up starting over some of the guys I’ve listed below.

Iowa Pitching Staff

Mitch Atkins
Esmailin Caridad
Randy Wells
Kevin Hart
JR Mathes

I think it’s possible that we sign a veteran arm to the mix. If Hart and/or Wells are in the majors, that changes the equation, but that always happens in AAA.

No high level talent here. Atkins and Caridad have been discussed, along with Wells. All three, along with Hart, are possible end of the rotation/pen arm types in the bigs. I think Hart could start in the minors, due to the big league logjam. I also think he might start as a starter, as Hart’s issue last year was losing a feel for some of his pitches, but if Hart is called up, it’ll be as a pen arm in all likelihood.

The only real breakout possibility would be Caridad, but he’s already been in the chattering this offseason. What do we know, right now, though? He can throw strikes and has a solid arsenal. Can he kick up the velo consistently, as he did in AFL? Mathes is a system arm.

Tennessee Pitching Staff

Hung-Wen Chen
Marco Carrillo
Billy Muldowney
Alessandro Maestri
Jeremy Papelbon

Like the Iowa possibilities above, the Tennessee 5 doesn’t offer much high level talent. The one exception maybe Maestri, but he has work to do to stick in the rotation, and his future may be as a pen arm. Chen has secondary stuff and average stuff. Well, same goes for Carrillo. Muldowney’s a nice, “bulldog” type strike thrower. All three are end of the rotation types. Tough option on the 5th starter, but I think the Cubs would use Jeremy Papelbon to have a stretched out lefty in the upper levels. Jeremy’s future may be sorta what Sean Marshall is right now. If I had to pick a sleeper, I’d go with Chen, as he might be able to be in that 92 range on his fastball, which would set things up better. Moved to the pen, and maybe he kicks it up. Actually, Chen might make a decent pen arm if it wasn’t for our system depth not needing it. Maestri is a possible breakout, depending on how things go. The stuff is there to be intriguing, a potential middle-end of the rotation type, or a 7th inning type arm in the bigs perhaps.

Daytona Pitching Staff

James Russell
Jay Jackson
Casey Coleman
Aaron Shafer
Robert Hernandez

Now, here’s some intrigue folks. This would be an exciting five at the start of the year. All five would have prospect value entering the year. Albeit, all five need work. All five have been detailed above, so let’s see. If I had to guess a breakout, I’d go with Jay Jackson. Not really a breakout, as he’s a top guy, but I wonder if he might make a Garza like leap up the minors of a few years ago (although I don’t see Jackson reaching the bigs). If I had to guess a sleeper, it’d be Robert Hernandez, who might really sleep his way up the board if another secondary offering develops.

Peoria Pitching Staff

Chris Carpenter
Justin Bristow
Jeff Beliveau
Kevin Kreier
James Leverton

This one’s intriguing as well. All 5 have value of some sort. Kreier has performed decently, but his stuff is fringy. Leverton may be in the pen, but he’s got upside. Bristow and Carpenter have been discussed. There’s room for growth here.

Sleeper/Breakout Possibility: Jeff Beliveau

Meet Rich Hill, v. 2.0, mini-me, which might be a good thing. He comes complete with a decent low 90’s fastball and a devastating curveball. He also comes complete with a nonexistent third pitch (okay, I’m exaggerating.) Furthermore, he also comes complete with mechanical issues that has caused control problems. Now, the issues, from what I understand, are a bit different. Beliveau is a shorter guy, though, and that may be a good thing.

I should revise my rotation projections – I’d guess Marcos Mateo will make the Tennessee rotation, with either Chen or Maestri in the pen, probably Chen.

Other arms:

AAA – Justin Berg could find himself in the rotation there. Signings Angel Castro and Jason Waddell could be useful arms in Iowa or Tennessee. I’d guess Waddell makes Iowa, as we need a lefty there. Both were effective in AA for their respective organizations last year (Castro – Tigers, Waddell – Giants). If I had to guess a closer, I’d guess Roquet over Ascanio right now. Greg Reinhard is coming off a solid adjustment to the pen and likely will be in AAA after being solid in AA last year. Casey Lambert could be in AAA or AA. It seems quite likely that we might add a couple minor league FA types to the mix. There’s probably an arm or two that I’m missing, but those would be the main ones to watch. Jeff Stevens will likely be here to start the year.

Comment: The pen should be effective. There should be a decent amount of options, with two solid AAA pen arms potentially in Roquet and Ascanio. If there’s a sleeper, it might be minor league FA signing Jason Waddell. He was strong against lefties last year (2.79 FIP, .231 Average against, 10+ K rate). Considering that Cotts and Marshall aren’t exactly LOOGY’s, keep an eye out on Waddell, who might be able to fit into the mix. Waddell sort of got jerked around in the Giants organization.

AA – Chen could be a valuable swing man. Former Blue Jays top prospect, Vince Perkins, will likely fit into the mix here or in Daytona, at least, to start. Brian Schlitter should be the closer to begin the year. Lambert/Castro/Waddell could fit here, although I think Waddell is solid for AAA, with Lambert probably starting in AA. Jayson Ruhlman may fit here as another lefty. Blake Parker and Jordan Latham could help anchor things here. Campusano could fit into the mix. A minor league FA or two may fit into the picture depending on how things shake out.

Comments: Latham/Parker/Schlitter back end could be solid. I don’t really see a sleeper. If I had to pick a breakout, it would be Latham, who has the stuff to potentially emerge as a late inning option.

Daytona – Cashner should anchor the pen at the start of the year. Former 2nd round pick, Grant Johnson, may start here. If Rich Hill is in the organization, I would guess that they start him at Daytona, in the nice warm weather, but maybe they push him to Tennessee. That said, Hill isn’t a lock to be in the organization. John Gaub is possibly going to go here, along with perhaps Dustin Sasser. Former catcher Jake Muyco could start here. Jose Pina is a thought here.

Comments: The setup crew to Cashner looks a bit shaky right now, so that’s worth watching. There are solid middle relievers, so maybe someone emerges. A guy to watch would be Jose Pina. There’s some raw stuff there to be a solid pen arm. Muyco could emerge in his 2nd year pitching, as a tough, Blake Parker-esque, bulldog type (and both were former catchers to boot).

Peoria – I think Archer starts as a swing man, but it very well could be Leverton. Ryan Searle could fit into the mix here as a pen arm or a starter. Dan McDaniel will anchor the pen to start the year. Cedric Redmond and Marcus Hatley both could be here, and both would be worth watching as pen arms. Alberto Cabrera could fit into the mix, and maybe big Rafael Dolis is a thought. Ryan Buchter, who we got in the Matt Avery trade, could fit into the mix here.

Comments: If I had to guess a sleeper, maybe someone like Rafael Dolis. Ceda-lite perhaps in some respects. That said, pick an arm. There’s a lot of raw arms. Archer could emerge. McDaniel should anchor a solid versatile pen.

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I’m sort of rushing this to get it on before this post disappears. This isn’t meant as a thorough review of all the other options, and if I get time, I’ll revisit this. Had one more post I wanted to make, though.

For Ryne Sandberg – AA doesn’t look that hot to start the year. An average offense, iffy rotation, and average pen. If Sandberg does anything with them at the beginning, he’s going to bump his status up a bit (not that it wasn’t high to begin with).

About Peoria overall – I know, hard for folks to get excited about Low A. But it offers some very intriguing arms and a solid anchor in the pen in McDaniel. The lineup could be intriguing. One possibility might be:

Campana, CF
Harrison, 2nd
Vitters, 3rd
Rundle, RF
Ridling, 1st
Keedy or Opitz, LF
Perez, C
Castro SS

I’m not saying all these guys will pan out, as I doubt it, but that’s a potentially solid Low A lineup that offers speed at the top, power in the middle, and some quality prospect talent there.

About Daytona Pitching – Some key arms likely to start there, like Cashner, Jackson, Shafer, Hernandez, Coleman, Russell, perhaps Gaub. Those are key arms that could make a difference.

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Be excited for (midseason)

Ryne Sandberg – There’s a chance that he could get some good callups midseason, with Rosa/Smith/Flaherty/Guyer as decent possibilities if things go well, and Vitters as a darkhorse option, and Johnston as a guy to pay some attention to. Add in the possibility of some arms moving up, and he could have a loaded 2nd half roster to make a run with.

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Be excited about the direction of the system. Look, it’s not a good system, but there’s some hope in the low levels, and considering our win now mode, that works. Not everyone will pan out, but if some do, we will be able to better transition from the veterans to the next generation. Be excited about the athleticism with our pitchers that Wilken has drafted. That bodes well for the future.

Hope for more power, more front of the rotation potential.

Be intrigued with the college focus, but hope that we aren’t limiting ourselves a bit.

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General level thoughts:

Peoria and Daytona offer two squads that, IMO, should be able to compete in the first half of the year. These are two talented squads for their levels, IMO. If both are not at the top of their division in the early going, I will be a tad surprised.

Tennessee’s talent isn’t there at the start. The offense is a bit shaky unless someone emerges, despite most of it being the core of the Daytona championship squad. The pitching doesn’t have top end talent, but it is a “gutsy” type group that may overachieve.

Iowa depends on minor league FA additions. It probably won’t be as strong as last year’s crop, as the offense should take a step back.
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There’s some other things I’d like to post on, but this thread will likely be gone soon.

As noted, I don’t make a list and just say that’s that. There’s certainly a lot I don’t know, and I’m open to ideas. After contemplating things, some small changes I would make (in regards to the revised list above).

Wellington Castillo – I’m a fan, but there’s a lot of work. As good as his defense is, more work is needed. Mostly consistency, but add in that the bat is still raw, and I think I need to be fair and downgrade that to C+. Kept him at 6, though.

Jovan Rosa – Kept him at 7, but change that to a C+. I shouldn’t incorporate my biases into my grades, and just because I like him a lot doesn’t change that he has to max his potential. Namely, the power.

Brandon Guyer – The big mover and shaker. There’s enough statistical and performance numbers. There’s enough upside. Sure, he’s more valuable in CF than LF, so let’s wait and see on that, but I think there’s enough performance for a C+. Slid him up to 11, after Castillo/Rosa/Colvin/Castro/Lee.

Flip Stevens and McDaniel (McDaniel 12, Stevens 13). McDaniel’s got better raw stuff, and his fast-curve offering, by most accounts, is legit. If stuck in the pen, McDaniel could move fast. Stevens is more middle relief, fringe setup.

Keep Rhee in place but give him a C+ with an asterisk. Yes, TJ isn’t as big an issue anymore. It’s still a surgery on a kid, though.

Flip Bristow/Russell at 28 and 29. I think Bristow’s got more upside and both are far away.

Flip Spears/Papelbon – Papelbon could provide more value for the organization, potentially (Papelbon at 30).

Cerda at 31 – Very intriguing asset with a lot of upside. Folks are just big on him.

Spears at 32/Samson at 33 – Good guys, and they may surprise, but on the surface, utility types.

In an odd flop, I switched Archer and Wells. Wells utility isn’t as high as his value, and Archer’s upside is rather intriguing.

Let’s see -

Bold predictions (things that I can see happen, but not necessarily sold they will)-

Jay Jackson becomes our David Price. No, I’m not saying Jackson is as good. Rather, I can see Jackson zooming up our system and forcing his way onto the roster late. Along with this, I can see Jackson move ahead of Samardzija in the pecking order for a rotation spot.

Andrew Cashner gets a quick bump to AA … and struggles some.

Tony Thomas gets moved to CF … because Ryan Flaherty forces his way into AA.

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Two guesses at system player of the year (so I can hedge my bets):

Positional -

A) Brandon Guyer – Guyer puts it together offensively and shows a decent ability to play CF.

B) Jovan Rosa – The power starts to happen, putting Rosa on track to replace Lee.

Pitching -

A) Jay Jackson – Change develops, fastball gets a little more velo, and we’ve got ourselves a potential TOR.

B) Casey Coleman – Joe Coleman’s boy emerges and shows some improved velo and moves up the ladder.