Simulating The 2009 Season

by Al on Jan 12, 2009 8:08 AM CST in News Comment 30 comments

While we wait for the Hall of Fame announcement coming at 1 pm CT this afternoon, here's a topic that you can chew on all morning.

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has run some early simulations using current rosters and projections from the Hardball Times. While they admit this is just a first attempt at season projections, the good news for us is that they project the Cubs to have (approximately, since they don't round up or down) a 92-70 record and make the playoffs in 66% of the simulations (56% division title, 10% wild-card).

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the projections is the last-place finish for the White Sox. While I thought the Sox played a little over their heads in 2008, I don't see them as a 90-loss team in 2009.

Have fun with this, because that's what it's for. Hat tip to Grant at McCovey Chronicles for the link.

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Let's hope............

………….the tools provided Lou will get the team to something more than the division title.

"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns

by tville on Jan 12, 2009 8:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The White Sox projection doesn't surprise me much at all...

Not only do the White Sox always seem to project poorly (PECOTA said they’d be 4th both in 2005 & last season—the last time PECOTA predicted them to win the AL Central was 2006 when they finished third, albeit with 90-wins), but they haven’t really don’t anything this off season to make themselves better than they were last year. Their offense is a year older, they lost their best infield defender, and say what you will about Javier Vazquez’s reliability but he’s likely significantly better than whatever warm body they trot out to replace him with in ’09. In short, I expect a long season on the southside, but they could just as easily surprise us all and take that division against all odds…again.

I think we all expect the Cubs to win the NL Central again, but a lot can happen in 162 games…

by MarchHare on Jan 12, 2009 8:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

+1

Their rotation is a mess and the lineup is iffy. Doesn’t mean things can’t turn out well, but when a guy like Gavin Floyd is your third starter, statistical projections aren’t going to be positive for you.

by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

AL West...

Ugh…

Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Jan 12, 2009 8:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Uhhhh....

the Rockies are gonna win their division, score nearly 840 runs, and win 88 games?! I must be on crack.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Jan 12, 2009 9:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Who the hell abbreviated Chicago Cubs to ChN? Chicago-National? Really?

by NittanyCub on Jan 12, 2009 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Um, because there's also a ChA?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 12, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've never seen it like that.

I guess ChN is exponentially easier than writing CHC, which is what SI, ESPN, Yahoo, and MSN do.

by NittanyCub on Jan 12, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well, hey

they have Jason Marquis on their team now. The sky’s the limit!

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 12, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, or you've been eating those mushrooms again ...

I don’t get how the Rockies make up for the loss of Matt Holiday and win the division. They just haven’t made the moves to do it. Admittedly, it’s a shaky division, but you’ve got to figure LA or the Snakes will beat out the Rocks.

IF IT TAKES FOREVER!!

by Cubfansince1957 on Jan 12, 2009 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It seems a little early to be making projections

for the 2009 season. Since so many teams are incomplete, it would be reasonable to think there are free agents that could impact the projections.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 9:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Especially with guys like Dunn and Manny still on the market…

Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Jan 12, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah ...

I don’t see the Dodgers as a sub-.500 team. But that’s because I don’t see them standing pat the rest of the offseason.

Also, I don’t really agree with the NL East predictions. The Marlins will win more than 69 games!

by elgato on Jan 12, 2009 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Young available.......

Texas looking to move Michael Young……… Hendry could put together a nice package…

by James031 on Jan 12, 2009 10:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Why bother?

Young is declining and expensive.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 12, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. Good argument regarding this in the latest FanPost...

Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Jan 12, 2009 10:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I should say, the Michael Young post...

Not Cubs Convention.

Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow

by PurpleLineToWrigley on Jan 12, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

and he's right-handed

by elgato on Jan 12, 2009 11:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Crawdad Attack in 5...4...3...

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 12, 2009 11:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

That is so preliminary

Angels under .500? thats insane

by sdhman11 on Jan 12, 2009 12:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

statistical based projections

gets some interesting quirks. If you look at the Angels lineup, it’s actually quite mediocre. To expect their pitching to be as good as last year is something that might happen in real life, but with statistical projections, things can slide. It’s a bit surprising, but considering how they went about it, not that insane.

by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How can they make statistically based projections

at this point in the off-season? Most teams are incomplete at this point, so I don’t see a point in completing this exercise at this point.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The things that surprised me

I don’t think Texas will be that bad. Heck, I can see a situation where if everything breaks right, Texas could push the Angels.

The one big surprise/sharp disagreement I have is with the Marlins. I understand why statistical projections will put them low, but I like the team. Their pitching looks to be real good next year, with perhaps one of the most underhyped one-two punches in baseball in Johnson/Nolasco, and Volstad would be solid. The pen should be fine, and the lineup should be alright to fine.

by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 12:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yankees pitching?

If everyone stays healthy their pitching can be as good as projected. If they get injuries though. They maybe fighting like dogs for the Wild Card

by sdhman11 on Jan 12, 2009 12:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

True

After how the Brewers used Sabathia last year, it wouldn’t surprised me if his arm fell off.

Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 12, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Even if he goes down. They still have enough to compete. And with that Lineup. They’ll probably score 950+ runs. If they want to win that title however. It would be wise to limit his innings

by sdhman11 on Jan 12, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Question: If Dawson somehow gets in and goes in as a Cub

will we retire “8”?

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 12, 2009 12:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

If he gets into the HOF,

he will likely go in as an Expo. Players do not get to choose the “hat” they wear on their plaque any longer. Since he played the majority of his career with the Expo’s I would expect that hat to be chosen.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs