Baseball America Cubs Top 10 Prospects
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 11:57 AM CST
46 comments
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267407.html
My List: http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/1/1/705921/my-cubs-top-50-prospects-1
Baseball Prospectus' List: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8296
Sickels top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/29/675375/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospe
MiLB season review: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/season_in_review.jsp?c_id=chc
I don't know who runs GROTA, but they have a list as well: http://www.goatriders.org/taxonomy/term/155
Scout.com has a Top 20 list, but the only way is to be a member (or google and view cached - if this breaks any rules, feel free to delete). There were some intriguing nuggets of information in the scout.com list.
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Baseball America came out with their list today. What I like was that this was done by Callis. In the past, I think they've had Rogers do it before. For those that don't know, BA is heavily based upon discussions with front office personnel for each team. So, along with their typical tools oriented slant, this can be somewhat viewed as a snapshot of sorts of how the team's leadership may feel at the moment, along with the writer's opinions mixed in.
I can buy the top 10 list. No big issues there. I like the fact that they had Castro (they messed up Starlin's last name) that highly ranked. I think something's that noticeable and disappointing is that, in terms of best pitches, Lambert and Cashner should both end up as pen arms.
As noted, I find the projected lineup ideas somewhat unnecessary, as the chances of us building a team/filling our holes just from internal options seems slim. As noted, I find it unlikely Colvin will be our starting OF in 2012. With Bradley locked in, he won't get RF in 2011 (besides the fact that he lacks a top RF arm.) If he gets back on track and is good, he'll most likely be a trade asset, IMO, to fill in our holes in 2009 and 2010.
I don't really buy Harden resigned to a long term deal after 2009, but I guess if the Ricketts (hopefully, or whoever is the new owner) infuse money, maybe. I tend to think that the Cubs will give Samardzija a rotation look in 2010 at least. I don't buy Cashner as a rotation option.
Interesting list, though. And with this, the major organizations/websites (Sickels/BP/BA) that put out Cubs offseason lists are largely done, I think, unless I am missing one.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Wow!
Tyler Colvin isn’t listed in the top 10 propects!
He didn’t have a good year last year but we’ve since found out he was playing through an injury (and has since had TJ surgery). It will be interesting to see if he can have a rebound year.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 12:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
kevin hart 6?
sam fuld…..ehhh what a terrible farm
-clarknaddison
by clarknaddison on Jan 12, 2009 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hart is bad
but fuld isn’t that bad. It’s not like they put him in the top 10. They simply put him as best strike zone discipline and best defensive outfielder, not assets that necessarily represent top talent. The reality with Fuld types offensively is that their chances of making it are always a bit hit or miss unless they have a plus skill, and even then, that might not be enough.
I do agree that Hart shouldn’t be a top 10. He’s getting major bonus points for “readiness”. Value should be a factor, and unless you think he can close (I doubt it), he’s a middle reliever.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't even think
Hart is eligible. I think he spent 45 days on the active roster before last September. He’s well below the IP number, because he was in the pen.
I didn’t include him. If I had, I’d probably stick him in the high-teens.
Everyone knows I’m not a fan of Sam Fuld.
by Josh77 on Jan 12, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not suggesting Sam Fuld is good
I’m just noting that BA simply mentioned Fuld on account of two aspects of his game.
As for Hart, someone mentioned somewhere that they thought he was right at the borderline in regards to how MLB counted days and wasn’t sure one way or another. I’ll check on it later.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 9:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
I was surprised to see Samardzija listed as a no 2 starter. I’m among the group that believes he should be a starter, but I never wouldve imagined him as more than a mid-rotation guy; so I hope theyre right.
Im most anxious about Hak-Ju Lee, if he’s as good as the early scouting reports, we could have a glut of young middle infielders.
But Colvin, what a crappy pick that was……Joba for crying out loud!
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 12:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Or Travis SNider
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Jan 12, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
You can’t blame the Cubs for not taking Chamberlain—almost every team in baseball passed on him. He was the #41 pick. But Travis Snider, who went just after Colvin and whom most teams had ranked higher? Yeah, that you can rip the Cubs for.
by Josh77 on Jan 12, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
especially when Wilken had drafted Rios and Wells—you would have thought Snider was a lock before Colvin.
by socalbob on Jan 12, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
colvin
is projected as the better athlete, thats what wilken drafts.
-clarknaddison
by clarknaddison on Jan 12, 2009 5:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe so, I'd buy that
but Snider was regarded as a much better baseball player heading into the draft. I’d rather have better baseball players. That is if you don’t want to have a flag football team in the off season. He whiffed on this one. And that is not arm-chair drafting as the Colvin pick was a surprise and a reach as stated by many at the time.
I thought it was a “draft a college guy because our system is so weak and we need someone to move through quickly” type of draft pick.
by socalbob on Jan 12, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Colvin was very much a tools-oriented pick
As has been noted before, the night before, indications were that Colvin was moving up from a late first round pick to perhaps a bit higher. I’m not defending the pick, though. Rather, what I am saying is that, when you hire Wilken, you know what type of players he’s going after. He’s going after athletes, for better or worse.
In saying that, I have noted before that I feel like Wilken’s first two drafts felt like filling needs. Now, I think the idea behind Colvin was that they hoped a college bat would move fast and they thought he was untapped potential.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There was also a signing concern
There was a real belief that Snider would be a tough sign, although in the end I don’t think he held out for that much. But don’t quote me on that. Colvin signed immediately and freed up money to lure Samardzija away from football.
by Josh77 on Jan 12, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's true
That is, that Snider was a tough sign. I think his mom had some medical issues that might’ve played a role in getting him to sign. He signed right after the draft, on June 19th, 2 weeks after the draft. Colvin, signed I think the 27th. Snider only took a bit more than Colvin (around 300 grand I think) which had to be expected.
For all the talk about Colvin being tied to Samardzija, while that may have some nugget of truth, the reality is that, Colvin is exactly the type of positional player that Wilken goes after. Sure, maybe some finances were involved, but at the end of the day, there were other cheaper options available, and Colvin was simply the guy that Wilken preferred.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if the Cubs would have been comfortable
playing Snider this year or if he’d end up blocked as Pie has been.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Jan 14, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say
Shark’s best case scenario is as a 2. I think a positive scenario is a 2/3, but there’s a strong part of me that thinks he’s destined for the pen.
As I put in one of my final posts, which few probably saw, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jay Jackson zoomed up the system and is perhaps offers a different option to Shark come 2010. Either way, it’ll offer more competition. Casey Coleman and Chris Carpenter could move fast and be worth focusing on, amongst others. Of those four, I’d rank their potential (just potential) as Jackson, Carpenter, Samardzija, Coleman, but Jeff has the benefit from being up the ladder.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
btw, that was only a quick list
I mean, a guy like James Russell, if he finds a curve, becomes intriguing. There’s loose speculation on McDaniel perhaps getting stretched out. Hernandez is still intriguing, along with Rhee. If Shafer gets a little more zip, and so forth. I discussed the options in my minor league post and how they stack in our system.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
That’s a pretty interesting 2012 lineup. I don’t think we would re-sign Aramis to play 1st , but who knows. Is it a stretch to think Harden will still be a starter in 4 years given his injury history?
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Jan 12, 2009 12:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The reason many teams shied away from Joba
is the question about his health. The question about Joba’s health still remains. As they say, the jury is still out on him.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops!
Meant to reply to the comment above.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Jan 12, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well if you view Joba as an 8th or 9th inning guy
Then his injuries could be less worrisome, and imagine a Marmol-Chamberlain combo ending the game….but reanalyzing drafts is just for fun/speculation….but that Colvin pick is looking worse and worse
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I could see Ramirez playing 1st, we dont have any young guys coming up playing that position
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
that’s debatable. as i noted in the first base discussion on our minor league depth, while we don’t have anyone at the top of the system, there are guys further down. At the top of the system, there isn’t much. Russ Canzler is a fringe prospect at AA. Worth paying half an eye towards, but probably won’t be much UNLESS he has some late development. Jake Fox is what he is, for lack of a better statement.
Jovan Rosa is likely headed to first due to the way our system stacks. He’ll get some time at 3rd, but unless the Cubs get really aggressive and start Marquez Smith at AA, Jovan may be blocked there, and Vitters is right behind. If Ridling can cut down on the K’s, he’s worth paying an eye to. That’s a guy to watch this year, as he should be anchoring the Peoria lineup in the middle. Ryan Keedy is in that Mark Grace-Lyle Overbay mold (not comparing Overbay to grace, rather nothing a positive spectrum for that mold and a decent one, basically two different points on the scale). Sean Hoorelbeke has some things going for him, but the power may be a bit tapped out. A guy like Jericho Jones could be perhaps utilized at first. There’s some options behind him as well.
Not saying any of these will pan out, but that there is some hope, and if 2012 is the focus year, then we should be looking lower in the system.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well if the '12 version of Ramirez can still play
I would imagine he’d still be a better option than a rookie, he’ll only be 34, so one would imagine at that point, he’d still have 2-3 productive years left as either a 1B or DH
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well
there is 14 million to look at (gotta pay the 2 mil buyout).
In all honesty, looking at 2012 is somewhat pointless in that, we should be looking at 2011, which is when Lee’s contract is up. A lot will depend on Vitters development – while indications are that he’ll handle the hot corner decently, if that changes, then first base might be his future. If he can stick at 3rd, which is preferable, then in 2011, the best minor league guess would be Rosa (if he finishes 09 in AA, that puts him on pace for the bigs in 2011, and with Bradley/Soriano/Ramirez, he could hit lower). Now, if Rosa isn’t developing, then we’re looking at a veteran signing, or hoping that Rebel has developed.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no doubt
but when you are looking at 2012, you are talking about guys that are far away, and hence, iffy.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
aramis
is actually signed for 2012. well, sort of. we have a club option (16 mil I think) with a small buyout, i want to say, 2 mil?
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We think Dome
is going to be gone by 2012? But Demp will still be here?
Huh.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 12, 2009 2:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
side note
the projected lineup is something based solely on the writer, in this case, callis. Sorry if i made it sound broader than that.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dempster is signed through 2012.
Fukudome is signed through 2011.
That’s probably all it’s based on, current deals.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jan 12, 2009 5:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That 2012 line up made me think of...
In the Year 2000…. In the Year 2000!
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 12, 2009 2:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
WE ARE ROBOTS.
The humans are dead.
RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)
by dat cubfan daver on Jan 12, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't we talk to the humans? A little understanding could make things better.
But the humans are dead.
RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)
by dat cubfan daver on Jan 13, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant to post this in my thread
but it’s not on the board anymore. But Ryan Acosta, Oscar’s kid, is the one guy I had a tough time figuring out. He didn’t perform last year, but he had personal issues (mom was sick). Kid has good raw potential, not TOR potential, but flashes potential mid-rotation type potential. Tough read on where to place him. On one hand, there’s enough talent to justify a top 50 ranking. On the other hand, there’s raw arms that have as much, if not more, upside than Acosta.
There was a lot more I planned on doing with that thread, but time sorta ran out and I don’t see the point in starting up another thread.
by toonsterwu on Jan 12, 2009 9:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
In case anyone is interested
Over at northsidebaeball.com in their message board minors section some of he people transcribed some of the chat wih Callis yesterday and his thoughts on the top ten. Just leting you know if you are interested and dont want to pay.
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Jan 13, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
thanks
i am intrigued that they had Steve Clevenger ranked 11th. His defensive skills must have improved more than I thought. If so, then that makes it more likely we move Castillo, as Clevenger would be a better fit as a backup to Soto than Castillo due to his bat, perhaps.
by toonsterwu on Jan 13, 2009 2:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No problem.
I knew you and others would be interested
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Jan 13, 2009 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
2006 draft.
Colvin with a good comeback after the injury, Samardzija, Clevenger, Parker, Rosa, Samson and Rundle gives this draft a chance to look decent despite not having a 2nd/3rd or 4th rounder.
by Slamdog on Jan 13, 2009 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am intrigued by what Brandon Guyer does this year
I will be keeping an eye on hm.. One of my college roomates was good freinds with him in middle school
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Jan 13, 2009 5:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
So am I
and be sure to pick up a copy of Wrigley Season Ticket this season.
by Josh77 on Jan 13, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the plug...
… though you are plugging yourself. Josh wrote a feature article on Guyer.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jan 13, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Any other BCBers featured in WST 2009?
though it’s gonna be tough to top last year’s bunch… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Jan 13, 2009 10:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
toonsterwu has done an organizational overview… and dfrancon has written an article about Cubs road trips.
There’s other good stuff, but you’ll just have to wait till it comes out!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jan 14, 2009 4:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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