updating Cubs payroll '09-'14 and discussing implications
I was out of town over an extended weekend attending my mother's memorial services and only saw a brief mention of Milton Bradley's contract and subsequent posting here. What a grand contract Hendry worked out as it only impacts this year at $7M laying off some money to 2010 and then getting an out clause for the final year at $12M.
What that contract essentially does is bring down the current projected liability to $133.07M (estimate) for 2009 while growing the 2010 figure to over $147.39M. I have created a google doc that offers a public viewing of this spread sheet which I think offers a better experience.(Naturally if you find some errors and I will make amends.)
In that spread I broke out arb eligible players and estimated potential annual comp's based on their current performance/roles incremental projections. Of course things get into a real guessing game as one goes out 2 or more years. But here are some important items especially for the next 2 years.
- Surprisingly Cubs can afford either Roberts or Peavy especially when you begin to factor in the projected traded players. Both bring the payroll up to $139M for 2009, which is near the published target or cap Hendry has stated ($140M) and coincides with the projected revenues ratio/payroll for 2009.
- 2010 projects out $147M but with Peavy it only grows to $154M in 2010 even with the projected subtractions, that then begs the question that if Hendry was told to par down under $150M he could cut players like Reed Johnson and Luis Vizcaino ($7.5M in projected savings) and the Cubs are back to the projected number that is now set for 2010.
- Other subtractions probably this year: Rich Hill (est $450K), Wuertz (est $1M), Cedeno (est $500K), this provides almost $2M for a back up catcher and LOOGY.
- Payroll over $147M will mean across the board ticket price/concession price increases next year, Cubs are at $43.40 for 2008 and I suspect will approach $48.00 with their premium tickets this year.
My thoughts: If this is all true and Peavy still is on the block from SD as Towers as intimated that a trade still makes sense ~~~possibly meaning Cubs trading what amounts to three position player starters and a reliever, a starting pitcher and the real prospect. At first I never really thought it was fiscally feasible---especially 2010 but now I can see getting Peavy availabe of course with a sign off. Actually it is extraordinary owner management when you think of it, a new owner buying a contender always likes to make a "good will" move where if it does not materialize the owners can point to the GM.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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48 comments
Comments
Sorry about your Mom
My condolences.
by jerry morales rules on Jan 12, 2009 2:21 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Sorry to hear about that also...
Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Jan 12, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As Am I
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fourthed.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jan 12, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you all....OT...
My mother was a matriarch of HOF status and we celebrated her life. One item of note was that she loathed many of a day or evening spent by her men watching the Cubs while the weather was so good.
My father the epitome of finding every angle and innovation when he had the patio doors replaced in the early ’80’s where the then antenna TV connection to the family room was on the patio wall placed an outside connection where then he could set up a TV…outside so he didn’t waste anymore time sitting inside watching the Cubs.
This of course became a family tradition where with cable/satellite TV hookups found their way to be made outside even when they retired to a lake home in WI and FL winter condo. This modus also emerged with her three sons who all remembered being forced to turn off the tv and go outside.
Now with 3 of the 4 living outside the Chicago market we now find MLB.TV with a wireless connection as often the choice to watch the games outside. All this was predicated by my mother’s insistence that we get outside…but she never imagined we would simply take our addiction outside with us as her purpose she would say later was to get us from watching those damn Cubs.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 9:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Your Google VooDoo make me head spin.
If we can afford one or the other… I go with BR…
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 12, 2009 2:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I Disagree...
… you have BR who likely is starting to come out of his prime, and you’d get him for 1 year.
You could land Peavy as he’s getting into his prime, and you’d solidify another starting pitcher for a long, long time. He’s a short-term and a long-term solution packaged into one!
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
to clarify
I’d want to bring him here on the assumption that he’s sign for an extension
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 12, 2009 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Then, He'd...
… really be out of his prime.
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you do not sign Roberts and I wouldn't want him on this team
My best guess is that trading for Peavy Cubs would have to give up:
Cedeno, Theriot or Fontenot, Pie, Stevens, Gaudin, Hart, & Vitters. From all that I have read Towers wants a decent young starter (Gaudin), a reliever or two (Stevens & Hart), an occupying SS, a 2B who both can play right away, an OF’er who can chase down the big OF and a real prospect making the trade of a top player all worth it.
This would leave a hole in the Cubs infield where Miles fills in one of the spots and the Cubs would need to find a utility player. My hope is Theriot is traded and Fonty and Miles start in the infield and they Cubs get a player like Counsel or Loretta on the infield.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 12, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
disagree
personally, I think this teams needs a true lead-off hitter more than another SP. (not saying I think this will happen though)
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 12, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
7-For-1 Is Too Much...
… I may agree if you remove the “Theriot or Fontenot” portion of it.
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah ...
It could be Cedeno or Theriot or Fontenot with the rest. Or one of the relievers (Hart, Stevens) isn’t dealt.
by elgato on Jan 12, 2009 5:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
probably correct
I am just thinking the worst case, but the market value of Peavy is actually diminished since he has absolute veto power on top of his rich contract.
Cedeno or Theriot, Stevens or Hart, Pie, Vitters and possibly Gaub is more in line.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Harden could be gone after this year, and Peavy’s more reliable than Harden
SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!
by CubFaninCA on Jan 12, 2009 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I bet Harden sticks
no real reason, just think he fits in well here and the NL will prolong his career and the Cubs figure to be a consistent contender for the forseeable future.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
too much money
On paper the Cubs are counting on Samardz or Marshall or Atkins or someone else stepping forth and then when Lilly’s contract expires another will be needed to step up.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We'll see, I dont know that big money will be there
considering his history and the economy. I think Lilly will be resigned, hes been great for us….and Samardzija status is still uknown, I think he can start, but does Lou
So there are many scenarios in which Hardens return makes sense for this team.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 13, 2009 9:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think acquiring Peavy is affordable?
Sure. Doesn’t mean it’s the right move, tho.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 12, 2009 2:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
can't have too much pitching
pitching at the top of the rotation, this would mean the Cubs might get 60% quality starts during the season, or about 90 games they hold the opposition to 3 runs or less over the first 6 innings.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 12, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I like the post a few weeks ago guessing who next years Peavy would be
I wonder if other fan bases have gone through this each of the past two offseasons….I think if Peavy ever pitches for the Cubs, I’ll be more relieved than excited.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Jan 12, 2009 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'd like Peavy
But if they can deal for Roberts first, I’d go for that. The Cubs need a bonifide leadoff guy more than a starter.
The big argument against B-Rob last year was DeRo’s displacement. Well that is taken care of, let’s see if Jimbo can execute this trade w/o getting a brain aneurysm.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jan 12, 2009 2:36 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree 1000%
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Jan 12, 2009 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Felix Pie a probably subtraction as well?
RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)
by dat cubfan daver on Jan 12, 2009 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
make that "probable"
RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)
by dat cubfan daver on Jan 12, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yes to both
subtraction and probable, except it depends on whether he has options left.
If he has options remaining than you need to ask the question whether to keep him or trade him.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 12, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's...
…out of options.
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that answers the question that he is subtracted
of if he is in Mesa clearly shows up Gathright.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 12, 2009 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope he does
show up Gathright….I would rather have Pie coming off the bench for D and speed…
100 years would have been nice, but 101 years still has a nice ring to it.
by airweino on Jan 12, 2009 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If he shows up Gathright, that just ups his trade value
I really doubt Pie will be with the club this year.
by dr stabbingworth on Jan 13, 2009 8:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I Figured I'd Share My Spreadsheet Again...
…here, too. Although it only shows 2009, not the five-year outlook.
Ivy has done some really nice work here.
The only thing I would add is that we’d need to push Pie… which would trim another $400+K. Also, we can trim another $3.5 – $4M if we flip Vizcaino. If we land another lefty for very cheap (i.e., Takahashi), say $500K, then we can trade Cotts and shave another $0.5M. The case here is that we can trim more if we need to.
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust!
by initram on Jan 12, 2009 3:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Vizcaino...
I doubt anyone would take on his whole contract, we’d probably be on the hook for at least half.
Someday we'll go all the way...
by CubsBullsBears on Jan 12, 2009 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
all possibles but I think you are moving into another discussion
The circumstance is is what is right now….and what happens if you trade.
My best guess is that if you trade for Roberts or Peavy, Pie is included as is Cedeno (not sure to Wuertz) in that I don’t recall either team saying they are interested in this soon to be non tendered FA. As for Takahashi or another LOOGY I think that is going to happen somewhere but I think Cotts stays.
Vizcaino is a nice thing to say but I haven’t seen Hendry saying he is going to flip him like like what people did with houses. I think Vizcaino and Gregg stay behind Marmol where Guzman and Samardz compete for innings and situations. I think Vizcaino’s flipping happens next year where either the Cubs send him to the FA door for $500K or trade him with $500K unless he has a career year.
The thing that jumped out was that Peavy’s trade would mean a subtraction of possibly $1.5M to $2M thus bringing him in for $9M next year. The issue to me was keeping the payroll under $150M in 2010 where succeeding years Peavy’s numbers get less and less heavy until the final $22M year.
I now think it is reasonable to see that Hendry could make this deal work where we all see the dream rotation starting in April. To me Peavy is far more important than a lead off hitter since having 5 starters who are all strong either top of the rotation or 2nd tier top of the rotation starters where 60% of all starts could be quality starts.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 12, 2009 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
IDK if you noticed, but what would be the point in releasing cotts and adding takahashi, they both would make the same according to you. .5m and 500k are the same thing, hahaha
by Steele3 on Jan 12, 2009 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs are 99% tapped out in my view
Other than adding a couple of cheap options at catcher and utility infielder I am convinced the Cubs are done spending money. The Jake Peavy thing has been hopelessly dead for a long time.
Keep in mind the Cubs right now remain the superior team on paper to the rest of their NL Central counterparts. The rest of this division has done very little. Hendry doesn’t need to beg for more money. This team can go to war with what we have and see how it plays out. If injuries or ineffectiveness deal a significant blow, then Hendry can see about trading Josh Vitters mid-season for what we might need.
by BLou on Jan 12, 2009 9:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that was my view until I looked at it
There is an old Sun Tzu axiom, when going to battle having too much is better than just enough. If the budget is what it is and the Cubs can afford Peavy in ’09 and ’10 and acquire him for a bunch of spare parts and future stock that insures the Cubs will have 60% or more quality starts (90) in a season that provides a benefit to the bullpen daily and the offense, than that is overwhelming the opposition.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 9:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs are done other than adding a backup catcher and backup 1st baseman / pinch hitter
by BLou on Jan 13, 2009 11:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You Are Entitled To Your Opinion...
… and I disagree.
. Yes to the backup catcher, likely Paul Bako at $500K.
. No to the backup 1st baseman, unless it is someone real cheap who is signed to a minor league deal with a ST invite to compete with Hoffpauir,
How about the other published reports of Hendry/Piniella wanting,
. another SP
. another veteran arm in the ’pen?
My 2008 Christmas wish list includes this jersey. In Hendry We Trust! Current 2009 payroll.
by initram on Jan 13, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think we go back to the overall plan
Hendry and even the suits have said that 2009-2010 they hold that they are in position to be a WS contender/aspirant. Hendry has said that:
And those close to Hendry expect him to restart the Peavy talks with the San Diego Padres that broke down a month ago at the winter meetings. "’We’re going to continue to look for pitching before we go to camp,’’ Hendry said
.
12/6/08 SunTimes:
CEO Crane Kenney has stated that the payroll will actually be north of $140 million.
12/31/08: Payroll is set until new owner is named
, had to move money to add money
I think looking at these published reports and looking at the Cubs current payroll of $133M right now and with the subtraction of those that are presumed going to a proposed SD trade and how it fits into the 2009 stated $140M payroll target, the only issue then is as follows in the Jan 7th article:
Once Bradley passes his physical and becomes a Cub this week, Peavy might be Hendry’s next focus.
The Cubs came close to making a deal for the 2007 National League Cy Young Award winner in December, but the landscape has changed dramatically since then — in some ways favorable toward a deal, but in other ways suggesting a tougher road.
The biggest payroll obstacle in taking on the $63 million Peavy is guaranteed for the life of his contract remains the Cubs’ 2010 projections. None of the payroll-clearing deals of the last week did anything for 2010, and that means the flexibility to add Peavy probably doesn’t exist without a nod from the team’s new ownership group.
This goes back to the radio show comment about the new ownership which must sign off on the increase of payroll for 2010, which I see running above $150M, with possible subtractions of a couple role players bringing down under that level but still $10M above $140M set for this year.
This all fits and basically is quite transparent. Cubs can make some minor moves with salaries under $1M…..Wuertz and signing a $500K LOOGY or signing a $500K back up catcher or going with a $400K minor leaguer. (As for catching I am thinking the Cubs will go scavenger hunting and looking for someone to cut a player and pick them up when they clear waivers like RJohnson or Edmonds and put K Hill on the roster unless Bako comes at the minimum.)
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Lets review the situation on April 1st
I strongly doubt the Cubs will have added anybody significant by then.
by BLou on Jan 13, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
of course we will
both of us hold opinions, neither of us can control, like taking side bets on the outcome of whether something happens….
I am just saying that you cannot defend that the Cubs are done by either public statements or their intent only conjecture of an opinion. This is unprecedented for the Cubs holding payroll at or near the top 5 of baseball. If they go over $140M and commit to $150M that is unprecedented but then again when did the Cubs win consecutive division titles and hold that they are in the WS aspirant level or have consecutive sell out seasons?
My guess is that if Hendry holds it is a good baseball move the new owners will bite
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I actually agree with you.
I don’t see any major moves being made, just tweaks.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Jan 13, 2009 8:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Like the axiom...
Unfortunately it’s 2010 payroll that scares me.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jan 13, 2009 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sun Tzu or thoughts associated to him
are simply what constitutes competitive strategy. Bob Knight would try to find matchup angles in the metaphor of saying it was Sun Tzu’s terrain or picking a battle site that was to your advantage.
Baseball offers a lot match up potential both during the marathon season (regular) and sprint season (playoffs).
This is actually what Piniella is talking about when he wants more left handed hitters in the lineup forcing other teams to adjust how they approach the Cubs offense. He also wants more athletes in the lineup meaning more situational running offensively.
In this axiom Sun Tzu held that going into battle or war one should amass overwhelming superiority to one show it and possibly preclude a costly battle in that the opposition withdraws against an overwhelming force—-in this case acquiring Peavy forces the division rivals to follow suit or withdraw and look to 2010 instead of seeking to engage now.
If going into battle then have too much and then apply it to overwhelm the enemy.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 13, 2009 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen.
Let’s arm ourselves to the teeth.
"If I ever saw myself saying I'm excited going to Cleveland, I'd punch myself in the face, because I'm lying." - Ichiro
by The Guy Who Accidentally Saved the World on Jan 13, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
funny how that hasn't done much for the Yankees recently
it’s probably safe to say, they’ve loaded up again this year. should be interesting to see if it works out for them or not.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Jan 13, 2009 10:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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