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Who are new Cubs Garrett Olson and Hank Williamson?

In the "Pie to Baltimore" thread a lot of the discussion focused on disappointment regarding Pie's Cub career and hope for an eventual Peavy trade.  While I've always thought a Peavy trade could be coming (in which case at least Olson would be going), it's worth looking at who we did pick up in this trade.  Hopefully Josh, toonsterwu, and others will add some more information on Olson and Williamson.  In the meantime, here's what I've found.

Star-divide

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Garrett Olson as Baltimore's 6th best prospect, noting him for having the organization's best curveball.  Kevin Goldstein (all his articles are behind the subscriber wall at Baseball Prospectus), praised Olson for "clean, fluid mechanics and excellent stamina," and ranked him Baltimore's 4th best prospect, projecting him as a potential innings eater in the majors.  He did warn:  "At times, he can be guilty of nibbling around the corners when he has the stuff to be more aggressive."

In 2007, BA ranked Garrett Olson as Baltimore's 6th best prospect, noting him for having the organizations best control, best changeup, and best curveball.  Kevin Goldstein, however, cooled on Olson, ranking him Baltimore's 8th best prospect, knocking him down from a three-star prospect to a two-star one.  KG continued to praise Olson's durability and stamina, but the nibbling he warned about the year before had become a more significant problem:

Olson got too cute in the big leagues, trying to paint corners and fool hitters by changing speeds; he needs to bring his more aggressive minor league style to the majors in order to succeed. He lacks the one true plus-plus offering to be a star.

Some have suggested a comparison between Marshall and Olson.  There are some similarities, no doubt, but Marshall's biggest drawback has been Olson's biggest strength - durability, the stamina to pitch deep into games.  I'm tempted to suggest that Olson, in fact, is more like Rich Hill than Marshall.  If Olson is given the chance to pitch under Lou Piniella, Lou will either be the one to change Olson from a nibble to the aggressive pitcher KG hope to see or things will not work out for Olson on the Cubs.

Additionally, the Cubs' defense and the move from the AL East to the NL Central should encourage Olson to pitch more aggressively.  Furthermore, durability is precisely what we need behind the starting rotation we currently have.  I've been a little worried that behind our front 5, we've only got Marshall, Gaudin, and Samardzija - all with chances to shine, but all with major questions.  Olson has his questions, too (just look at his career ERA), but the durability is a plus. 

It's harder to find information on Hank Williamson.  He's old for his level, which is a concern when looking at his nice K/rate or other stats.  Baseball America said this about him when he was drafted (partially explaining his advanced age):

Hank Williamson spent a year at NCAA Division II St. Edward's (Texas) and transferred to Rice but didn't pitch in 2006. He has a pro body (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) and can pitch in the low 90s with his fastball, though he has worked more in the high 80s this spring.

Hopefully there will be more information out on Williamson as others analyze this trade in the days to come.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Good work

"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"

by fischisgod on Jan 18, 2009 9:34 PM CST reply actions  

very nice post

I was wandering more in depth about these 2. what kinda speed does olsen have on his fastball??

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 18, 2009 9:49 PM CST reply actions  

I'll tell you who I hope they are:

two dudes about to get traded for Jake Peavy. I’ve been holding off in my Peavy-anticipation this off season, but all these trading blocks have added up to me salivating for what a few months ago looked like a pipe dream.

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Jan 18, 2009 9:59 PM CST reply actions  

velocity

I was wondering the same thing about Olsen, anyone know what type of velocity he has..Hill is as good as gone before the season starts, sounds like the two pitchers are pretty similar, although Olsen has a change, Hill..not so much…If Olsen has a 90+ fastball, worst case scenario he can be the lefty out of the pen.

by WooWoo on Jan 18, 2009 10:00 PM CST reply actions  

Wow, wow, wow.

That is a really unfortunate choice for a user name and profile pic.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 19, 2009 9:47 AM CST up reply actions  

You are correct.

It doesn’t appear to really be him, though.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 19, 2009 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

LOL - oh man, it never occurred to me that that could be a possibility.

Could you imagine? Wait, don’t…my ears are ringing already.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 19, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions  

play it out without peavy

Although getting peavy would be great..why not play it out till the trade deadline..I bet that as the soon moves along, everyone is gonna be pushing for the lead-off hitter, not another pitcher. Keep our prospects, let marshall, Olsen, Shark, Gauidan, and maybe a FA reclamation project fight for the 5th spot. I have hear that Mulder has been throwing well and he is a chicago boy, one of the suburbs…sign him and see what he has, whats the risk..

by WooWoo on Jan 18, 2009 10:04 PM CST reply actions  

DGU, you point out Piniella's view of pitchers

THROW STRIKES….for a hitter like Piniella was he lived on situations where a pitcher had to come into his hitting zone and he knows that is where MLB players earn their living.

Challenge a hitter and the odds are with you if you have the stuff.

But it appears that Olson is slated for a starting role with SD if a trade is in the works….

SD didn’t want Pie but wanted starting pitching and something Towers saw or knows thinks Olson is a potential pitcher at Petco. Marshall OTOH appears to be a reliever because of his stamina, which is something the Cubs need.

Williamson appears to fill Cubs need to retool and regenerate. Same for Gaub, while Stevens appears to be another player Towers would like to use in a low budget payroll, same for Hart. Here is the whole package in a nutshell….

Olson is 420K+Stevens 400K+ Hart 400K+Cedeno 833K+ Vitters + R. Hill 420K as a flyer = $2.47M with a corresponding reduction of $11M and reducing SD below the $40M mark.

Cubs get Peavy, reduce their payroll $1.3M, unload Hill without DFA’ing him, unload Cedeno without carrying him or DFA’g, got rid of Pie without DFA’g him, unload DeRosa’s $5.5M, Marquis’s $9.85M and trade minor league value of Hart & Vitters.

They shed $16.6M in total that allowed the Cubs to sign FA, Miles $2.2M + Bradley $7M Vizcaino $3M = $12.2M leaving $4.2M in reserves, to apply to Peavy’s $11M or the cost of $6.8M

It is a masterful work to add from spare parts, peripheral points on the roster and prospects, while opening a spot for Fontenot’s bat. I still say it all fits if Miles eventually beats out Theriot for the starting SS and Fontenot & Theriot platoon at 2B.

Now if Aurilia joins the club for $2M and Bako for $500K the total add will be $9.3M on the current payroll and right under $140M.

Tell me where is the weakness on this proposed roster?
Rotation: Peavy, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden
Bullpen: Marmol, Gregg, Vizcaino, Cotts, Marshall, Wuertz, Samardz or Gaudin
Starting IF: Soto, Lee, Fontenot, Theriot, Ramirez
Starting OF: Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley
Bench: Bako, Johnson, Gathright, Miles, Aurilia

The strength is in the rotation where all top teams must be anchored. Bullpen has heavy stuff, with some competition, offense that scored more runs than any team in the NL is stronger while the bench has more versatility.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jan 18, 2009 10:41 PM CST reply actions  

Good thoughts

In answer to the question, “Where is the weakness on this roster?”

There are two places –
1) The ‘pen. Lou needs durable strike throwers – multiple durable strike throwers. I don’t see enough of that. Barring the emergence of Guzman, Atkins, or someone, we’ll likely be in the market for a reliever or three mid-season.
2) The bench and Iowa. That will only be a big deal if we have multiple injuries. Unlike last year, we do not have the depth to continue putting forward a strong lineup if we lose several of our big bats at once. This will be less of an issue if Dome and Lee have good 2009s.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 19, 2009 12:05 AM CST up reply actions  

DFA Guzman?

I believe he is out of options, so needs to make the roster, which means he or someone else listed needs to leave the organization.

No power on the bench.

Injury worries in the rotation – but that is outweighed by ridiculous upside.

Basically, I can’t complain with the above roster much at all.

"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano

by JohnM on Jan 19, 2009 3:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Unload Hill without DFA'ing him?

Hill has negative trade value. Why would anyone trade for him at all when they can just wait for his inevitable release?

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 10:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't know about "negative".

Hill’s lefthanded. Plenty of teams would take a chance on him, figuring they can “fix” whatever is wrong.

The Cubs might not get more than a low-A prospect. But I believe they can get something.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 19, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Yes a team will absolutely take a chance on him

But there’s no reason for them to take that chance until after the Cubs release him, which everyone knows they will.

I’ll be beyond shocked if they are able to trade him.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Jim Hendry found new homes for...

… Todd Hundley, Neifi Perez, Cesar Izturis, Matt Murton and Eric Patterson and received useful parts in return.

If he can do that, he can trade Rich Hill.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 19, 2009 11:08 AM CST up reply actions  

Those were useful players

At the current moment, Rich Hill doesn’t look like a particularly useful player.

This is more comparable to the Mark Prior situation than any of the players you’ve mentioned. Hill will be treated as if he’s coming off a major injury with a high probability of failure.

Someone will take a chance on him, but they won’t risk anything more than money on it.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 19, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions  

I would have said the same thing about a player like Freddie Bynum.

The reason a team would trade for Hill is to get first dibs on getting him. That way, they wouldn’t need to compete with any other teams to sign him to a minor league deal. All teams have a slew of non-prospects stashed at A ball with some level of upside. I don’t see why that kind of deal won’t me made in this situation.

It turned out Freddie was traded to the Orioles for a low A ball non-prospect.

That player turned out to be Kevin Hart who learned a new pitch with the Cubs and helped out of the bullpen in September of 2007. Hart helped the Cubs win that year. Who would have ever guessed that would happen?

Who knows if Hart will have a major league career but my point is you just never know how a move like this can turn out for either side.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Jan 19, 2009 2:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Again, Bynum was a useful major leaguer

Marginally useful, but still useful.

At this point Hill isn’t even a useful minor leaguer.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions  

if teams wait for his 'inevitable' release, there's no guarantee they will be the ones to get him

whereas by trading for him, they are assured he will be on their team

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions  

If he were valuable then that would be true

At the moment, he isn’t particularly valuable or useful. He has a chance to be useful, but I don’t think anyone rates that chance very highly.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions  

well the 'value' of Hill would be represented by what said teams would offer Hendry in trade

and obviously, right now it wouldn’t be much.

But I wasn’t really considering his value or lack thereof. Merely that the trade route is the sure way of obtaining him vs. the uncertainty of waiting for his release.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Rich Hill doesn't just cost players

He also earns a salary. That salary is probably pretty close to what teams would be willing to risk on him, I doubt it extends beyond that to include a player of even marginal value.

As far as the sure way of obtaining him thing, toonsterwu said it extremely well.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 12:41 PM CST up reply actions  

All I'm doing is answering your question

You asked “Why would anyone trade for him at all when they can just wait for his inevitable release?”

and I presented a scenario explaining why a team might trade for him now instead of waiting for his release. That’s all.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 1:00 PM CST up reply actions  

And I'm refuting the validity of that scenario

Your tone indicated your arguing against what I was saying. You did use little quoty marks after all.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 2:07 PM CST up reply actions  

ahh.. I see now. Not sure why I used the little quote marks but no snarkiness was intended

probably just wanted to emphasize that release was not an absolute certainty – i.e. a trade, while admittedly bewildering and illogical, was still a distinct possibility.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 2:19 PM CST up reply actions  

problem is

you are assuming that Hill is a unique asset of sorts – or at least, a tough asset to find. Lefties that throw in the high 80’s/low 90’s with a plus curveball can be found a bit more often than is suggested. They’d have to assume Hill could be rebound, but even then, that’s no sure thing.

by toonsterwu on Jan 19, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that is

what will happen. We may want an asset for Rich Hill, but no one’s going to give up anything knowing the huge issues that he had. Wouldn’t surprise me (or anyone) if he ended up in Baltimore.

by toonsterwu on Jan 19, 2009 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

the Bullpen

as of right now is very very shakey at best. we need a dominant lefty.

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 19, 2009 10:10 AM CST up reply actions  

weakness:

Gregg, and the pen, as DGU says.
Middle Infield. The concept of Riot and Miles starting the same game makes my head hurt.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 20, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions  

I love the deal

The fact that we didn’t give up anymore is awesome.

My general thoughts that I posted over at Sickels:

I love this deal for the Cubs, don’t like this for the Orioles.

For the Cubs – No role for Pie. He wasn’t going to make the roster and another year of AAA wasn’t going to do anything for his value. This is dumping a guy that wasn’t in any plans anymore. Now, I’m still a believer that Pie might be a decent starting OF, and I always thought he was overhyped. That said, he’s got no role. Olson offers us an arm that we can either spin in another deal (Peavy) or utilize ourselves. Garrett looks and feels like your typical mid-end of the rotation lefty. What this move does is open up options for us if we can’t make another pitching deal. Pinella prefers a 2nd lefty, so he could go with Marshall or Olson as the starter, and the other one utilized as a swing/pen arm.

For the Orioles – Why? I don’t get it. They need pitching. A lot of people seem to be assuming that the Matusz/Arrieta/Tillman trio will be good. I think if 2 of them hit as good starters, the Orioles should be ridiculously happy. Even then, they have Reimold and others that they can work into LF. Moreover, the Orioles lack ready arms right now. Why not see if Olson pans out? I doubt he loses that much value if he struggles in the early goings of 2009. Not saying it’s a bad value deal, but I just don’t get the purpose of the deal for Baltimore.
_______________________________________

Olson’s fastball runs in the high 80’s, on occasion, touching low 90’s. He throws a pretty solid slider and mixes in a curve and a change on occasion. I’ve read/heard before that Olson has fairly solid work ethic, attitude, demanor, etceteras. Basically, we’ve traded for another Sean Marshall, which isn’t a bad thing considering the options it offers if we don’t spin Olson. I think Olson might have a slightly better upside than Marshall if he can put it together.

Williamson is Wilken’s type of guy, an athlete who, despite his age, is probably still developing as a pitcher. He’s got a live fastball that DGU notes, and I think I’ve heard people say his curve is above average. Feels more like another pen arm addition to our system, although admittedly, my understanding on Hank is slim as well. I wouldn’t mind seeing a live arm being tried as a starter, but again, I don’t know enough on Hank’s feel for a 3rd pitch.

by toonsterwu on Jan 18, 2009 10:50 PM CST reply actions  

I think the Orioles saw this trade as a buy low option, with high potential payoff

Long-term, their OF will not be Pie-Jones-Markakis. As you pointed out, they’ve got Reimold. More likely, when they’re ready to contend, they’ll want to fill one of those corner spots with an established slugger. But in the short-term, giving Pie a chance to establish his value is a great risk. Pie can always be re-flipped. Furthermore, picking up on your theme on the O’s pitchers, it’s still possible that Adam Jones may not end up as much as he was hyped. With over 600 PAs, Jones’ career OBP is .301, ten points lower than Felix’s 2008. Felix could end up B’more’s long-term CF.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 18, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions  

Nick Markakis and Adam Jones aren't going anywhere

Markakis is already on his way to being one of the premier players in the AL and Jones is bursting with talent in his own right. This is an important season for Jones, but he seems up to the task and should emerge.

Felix Pie? He will be given a shot in left field. If he fails then the O’s turn to Luke Scott.

by BLou on Jan 19, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Markakis close to signing 6 yr deal with O's
The Orioles and Nick Markakis are close to a six-year deal worth between $64million and $66 million in guaranteed money, a baseball source said. Markakis and the Orioles have made “real progress” in their contract-extension negotiations in recent days, according to club president Andy MacPhail.

“We’re close,” MacPhail said, without revealing specifics. “But we’re not there yet.”

linky

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 12:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Is Markakis THAT good of a right fielder?

I can’t help wondering whether it’s silly of the Orioles to put a guy with Pie’s speed and defensive abilities in the least challenging outfield position. Plus, that’s also taking a big risk on Pie’s bat, which may not provide the offensive production typically sought in a left fielder. Why not shift Markakis to left – damn, he had a good season at the plate last year! – and put Pie in right?

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 19, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Markakis

is their franchise guy. I think Nick wants to be in RF and it’s his spot. Teams are wary of moving their guys for someone else (Witness ARod playing 3rd instead of short). Moreover, Nick has been an above average RF for his career. He probably has a better arm than Felix.

by toonsterwu on Jan 19, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Nick Markakis is established

But Adam Jones hit something like .270/.310/.400 last year, an OBP, if I’m not mistaken, that was lower than Felix Pie’s. I like Jones. I think he’ll be a star. But there’s risk with him. Having Felix as another CF option gives the O’s another option with a different risk.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 19, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions  

The thing Jones has going for him...

is that he’s younger than Pie. But yes – a .260 average and .310 OBP isn’t a sign of sure-fire success moving forward.

It would appear that Pie and Jones are very similar players, with Jones having shown a bit (just a bit, though) more success at the MLB level.

by SouthernCub on Jan 20, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Orioles Contend?

I hate to say it but the Orioles will not be contending anytime soon stuck in the AL East.

by jtsurf on Jan 18, 2009 11:50 PM CST reply actions  

Hank Williamson?

Awesome name for a pitcher from Texas.

"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano

by JohnM on Jan 19, 2009 3:36 AM CST reply actions  

This trade shows me why I'm not a GM...

How garret olson, he of the over 6.50 ERA in MLB, is considered to have more upside and probably more trade value than Sean Marshall, who has posted sub 4.00 ERAs most of his time in the bigs, is just beyond me. Sometimes I just don’t understand baseball. I look at it, and this trade sucks on the face of it. But what do I know?

by reedjohnson on Jan 19, 2009 7:43 AM CST reply actions  

Who said that about Marshall?

There were reports that the Padres wanted Marshall in a Peavy deal, and that Hendry said no. That could indicate that Marshall has more value to both the Padres and the Cubs than Olson.

"Who's Bob Brenly? The guy that used to be the manager for Arizona?" ~ Alfonso Guilleard Soriano

by JohnM on Jan 19, 2009 8:00 AM CST up reply actions  

A few thoughts

Their minor league numbers are similar. Look at Olson’s 2007 minor league numbers. They seem to indicate that he can at least be a 4 or 5, maybe a 3. Olson was definitely rushed into a full-time rotation spot last season. The one advantage Olson has over Marshall is durability. If Olson isn’t traded then there is a chance that he could eventually fit into the rotation. Not likely in 2009 though.

by rlpete on Jan 19, 2009 9:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Remember Marshall's rookie season ERA of 5.59

When you add the fact that Olson was facing the AL East and Marshall the NL Central, their first-season numbers don’t look that different.

A lot of players struggle their first year in the show. Sometimes even big league GMs give up on their young players after that rough first year. My guess is that the O’s had given up on Olson; we know that enough of the decision makers in power with the Cubs had given up on Pie.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 19, 2009 9:34 AM CST up reply actions  

Not sure this has been discussed on this site, but...

R.J. Anderson at Fangraphs.com has a pretty good article up today giving the Cubs the thumbs down on this one. His argument is that the Cubs don’t have much patience with prospects.

He’s also not too big on Olson either.

Olson is an unspectacular starter with average stuff and below-average stats. Olson’s minor league strikeouts have yet to carry over neither has his control in the minors. A 5.13 FIP isn’t overly encouraging, and neither is the homerun problem, but CHONE foresees a better season in 2009 for Olson, 153 innings and a 4.96 FIP. The Cubs might use Olson in relief, or in the back of the rotation, and that is the problem here.

Anderson argues that with Bradley’s health, the Cubs could be in need of another lefty bat such as Pie’s.

It’s a compelling argument, but I’m like most of us here, in that there’s probably another big move brewing.

Proud recipient of a hot dog shot from the Iowa Cubs hot dog gun.

by IowaCubs- on Jan 19, 2009 9:11 AM CST reply actions  

Thanks for posting this, DGU.

I’m just catching up on the Pie trade, so this helps a lot. Call me crazy, but I’m a little more excited about Williamson than Olson. According to this local (Baltimore) article:

Williamson, 23, was the Orioles’ 14th round selection in the 2007 First Year Player Draft. He went 0-1 with two saves, a 3.72 ERA (29.0IP, 12ER) and 42 strikeouts in 20 games with Class-A Aberdeen (17 games) and Demarva (3 games) in 2008.

42 Ks in 29+ innings pitched sounds good to me. Sounds like a decent, young power arm for the bullpen. Just the kind Lou likes.

About Olson, I’m a little more cautious. Maybe I’m just snakebit after the Rich Hill debacle, but I’m a little wary of another soft-tossing lefty finesse guy. If he is destined to be part of a Peavy trade, great. I just hope Hendry doesn’t deal Marshall to the Padres and keep Olson.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 19, 2009 10:09 AM CST reply actions  

Interesting you say that about Williamson

Because when I examine this trade I too get the impression that Williamson is the real key and that Olson is almost like a throw-in.

by BLou on Jan 19, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions  

what

Uh, yeah, Mike. Olson was a throw-in.

Your ability to evaluate prospects continues to impress.

by Wreckard on Jan 19, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

He's just

stating his opinion. Relax a little.

"Why do you always point to the sky when Zambrano starts?" My girlfriend.

"You just wouldn't get it...it's a Cubs thing..." Me.

by cubs2k8isnxtyear on Jan 20, 2009 12:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Pretty sure Olson was the key guy...

but I do agree that Williamson is not an irrelevant addition. He appears to have the “live arm” that Hendry values so much. I agree that he’s probably not a throw-in.

But I would bet that Olson was the key guy. He’s a near-ready LH arm who can start or pitch out of the pen. He’s a key piece in the Peavy discussions, and even if the Peavy trade doesn’t happen he’s a LH option for next year. He’s most certainly not a throw-in.

by SouthernCub on Jan 20, 2009 2:45 PM CST up reply actions  

I've just been thinking, there is no point in following prospects

I remember hearing about Pie since 2004 thinking, oh boy I cannot wait for him to make it to the big leagues! 07 rolls around and I remember everyone was hyped up for his big league debit when Soriano as injured. Now less than 2 years later, he isn’t even on the team anymore, making that time thinking he could be a good player for the Cubs worthless

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 19, 2009 8:18 PM CST reply actions  

Geovany Soto

His case was fun because he came out of nowhere.

I enjoy watching prospects precisely because you never know what will happen to them. I remember watching Daniel Cabrera at AA Bowie thinking, “This guy isn’t close to being ready for the big leagues,” and then next thing I know, just a couple weeks later, I see him starting on TV in Camden Yards.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 19, 2009 10:56 PM CST up reply actions  

and it turned out

you were right … Cabrera wasn’t ready for the bigs ….

by toonsterwu on Jan 19, 2009 11:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah - of course

I also remember being rather unimpressed with Joey Votto, but I’m not going to go around advertising that one.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 20, 2009 7:36 AM CST up reply actions  

its basically a crapshoot

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 20, 2009 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Analyses of the trade are out

at BP and BA, but neither really gives us anything new on Hank Williamson. That likely means he hasn’t done anything really to catch any scouts eyes and get them talking.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 20, 2009 9:55 AM CST reply actions  

he's raw

and the other thing is, the hard throwing athletic pitcher, likely a pen arm, with a low-mid 90’s and a decent breaking ball isn’t that rare. I mean, in our system, despite Williamson showing some upside, I’m not sure I could legitimately have him crack a top 75 list as of right now.

by toonsterwu on Jan 20, 2009 5:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Jim Callis chat on Hank Williamson, plus comments on the controversial doghouse
Dave (Portland, OR): Jim, what can you tell us about Henry Williamson, just acquired by the Cubs for Pie?

 Jim Callis: Strong arm, big frame, some potential but a long way from reaching it. The Cubs have done a masterful job recently of getting previously obscure minor leaguers in minor deals (Kevin Hart, Jose Ceda, to name two), so maybe Williamson will turn into something.
Matt (Garfield Hts, OH): Any word on Rich Hill? Obviously the Cubs can’t count on him for the rotation this year but have you heard anything that might at least put him in the mix?

 Jim Callis: You don’t hear Hill’s name much up here in Chicago. Lou Piniella has been a good manager for the Cubs, but when he gets down on player, it’s pretty much over for that player. Hill is in that doghouse, as was Felix Pie prior to the trade

.

So, here’s a question, if anyone’s still looking at this fanpost, do you read Callis’ comments as suggesting Lou impacted Hill negatively or just that Hill won’t get another shot with the Cubs?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 27, 2009 11:16 PM CST reply actions  

Depends on if you think Hill is a strong or weak person

Let’s say somewhere along the way Hill screws up and pisses Lou off. And Lou lets him know it.

If Hill is strong, then he shrugs it off and works on whatever is wrong so he can pitch and/or move up. At that point whether or not Lou lets him out of the doghouse is a function of Lou, not Hill.

If Hill is weak, then he lets Lou get in his head, he puts too much pressure on himself, and he starts down the self-fulfilling prophecy of failure. At that point, Lou doesn’t have to worry about letting him out of the doghouse because Hill has chained himself inside.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 28, 2009 1:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Well, here's the follow-up question then

Did Felix get out of the doghouse?

Because Felix was strong. It took him some time, but he went down to AAA worked on what Lou and Gerald told him to work on, changed his approach, came back up and did what they were looking for.

I don’t think his trade was evidence for him still being in the doghouse because Felix had no position left at that point. The Cubs wanted/needed a power-hitting OF and Kosuke’s contract was always going to play.

So, did Felix making the post-season roster show he was out of the doghouse?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 28, 2009 6:35 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't think Pie making the postseason....

…showed he was out of Lou’s doghouse. I think the Cubs simply needed a speedy, defensive outfielder type for their, ahem, playoff run and Felix was the best (only?) option.

I’ve acquiesced to BLou on this one – I think Lou and Hendry simply saw something in Felix’s swing that they didn’t like and there was little to nothing Felix could do to change their opinions. I thought he looked better when he came back up late last season, too, but evidently Lou still didn’t see what he was looking for or still thought Pie had too far to go to suit the team’s needs.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by daver on Jan 28, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions  

maybe. maybe not. who knows? methinks you doth obsess too much...

are you going to retrace Pie’s entire career path and analyze every significant event to try and explain what happened to him?

I think daver nailed it above – Pie making the post-season roster was more a matter of filling a specific need than anything else.

Whether or not Pie made it out of the doghouse is irrelevant – Lou & Jim have moved on to other dogs.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 28, 2009 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree with this assessment.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by daver on Jan 28, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

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