whoa, Dunn's price might be

5 million/year? I thought Dunn was shooting too high ... but 5 mil? If that happens, that'll give me a lot of pause. But it sure feels like after Manny signs, one of the vets, Dunn or Abreu, will get a decent deal as the fallback, leaving one potential big loser in the offseason sweepstakes, so it is possible.

10 months ago toonsterwu 36 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Quote from the link...

One agent I spoke with today said that “I think Dunn will get a max of $5 million per year. Anything more than that and I’d be surprised.”

We’ll see if that really happens. Is Bobby Abreu still a free agent? He might not get much more than that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 19, 2009 5:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

The article also points out Dunn is asking for $14 million a year for four years. The person saying $5 million was an agent who wasn’t Dunn’s agent.

If Dunn comes down from his $56 million number, I expect someone will give him a lot more than a one year, $5 million contract.

by Josh77 on Jan 19, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And if he takes it...

he should fire his agent, and hire Bozo to represent him, who could probably do a better job.

I’ll say again; a one-year deal is exactly what Dunn should be looking for right now. He’s in a saturated, deflating market for corner outfielders, and the money that most teams had at this point is spent. Maybe you add a mutual option for 2010, but this is someone who could benefit greatly from re-entering the market next off-season.

He’d be the premier bat, able to peddle himself as either the hot first baseman du jour, or really the only outfield power alternative to Matt Holiday. Couple that with the Yankees having both Matsui and Damon coming off the books, and leveraging the growing disdain for Boras, and he could be in for a MAJOR payday.

This time next year — assuming the economy has at least flattened — he could get that 4/56 standing up.

by Damen Jackson on Jan 20, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Which begs the question...

would you rather have Bradley’s contract or Dunn on a 1 yr deal for less?

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Jan 21, 2009 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bradley...

I don’t think that some people around here really understand how bad Dunn is in left field, let alone how poorly that translates into playing right.

Now for what it’s worth, if he were on the market next off-season, I’d dump Lee in a second for him.

by Damen Jackson on Jan 21, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was just gonna post a fanshot about this.

Even though Milton Bradley is already on board, I think Dunn would still make for a solid acquisition. Where would he play? Think Mark DeRosa. Same role, different position. In the outfield we have two guys that have suffered from injuries in recent season or throughout their careers. Dunn could grab two or three starts a week subbing for Soriano and Bradley and his durability makes him a great fill-in when, not if, injuries plague both hitters. Also, we have seen how a day or two off every week or so helps our first baseman and Dunn could probably fill in for him, giving us a worse glove but a superior stick. I realize we already have Hoffpauir for spot 1b/rf duty but when a player of Dunn’s caliber is available for a “measly” five million annually it’s tough not to jump on that. Plus, seeing how a long term deal at 5 annually is probably a bad move for Dunn, maybe he would do a one year deal.

by dakoose on Jan 19, 2009 5:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

There's no way Dunn signs anywhere that he isn't a fulltime starter.

He could do what you’re suggesting for an AL team, where they can stash him at DH otherwise, but not for a NL team.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 19, 2009 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

won't happen

Adam Dunn won’t sign anywhere to be Daryle Ward Jr.

by elgato on Jan 20, 2009 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, and here I thought I was going out on a limb...

…suggesting the Cubs sign Jim Edmonds as a lefty bat off the bench (and sometimes 1B/outfield fill-in). Positing Dunn for that role is a bold idea but completely unrealistic – unless maybe (MAYBE) he gets completely left out in the cold. Still, I just can’t imagine such a thing coming to pass.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 20, 2009 9:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If Dunn was 38 and really wanted a shot at a ring

It could happen, but he’s not, so it won’t happen.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jan 20, 2009 9:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

at $5m why not

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 19, 2009 5:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The Nats

will get him for for 8-10 per over 2-3 years probably. no way he gets under that with bottom feeding teams needing a player like him.

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 19, 2009 6:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

here's a question

if the nats know there isn’t a market, why fork over more? Dunn needs the Nats more than the Nats need him right now.

And in all honesty, if Dunn can’t get a big long term deal, he’d be wise to shoot for the highest AAV in the shortest possible deal, even in one year, as long as he’s confident in his abilities.

Here’s the other thing on Dunn/Abreu – If Manny goes to the Dodgers, that hurts those two. If Manny goes elsewhere, the Dodgers likely grab one of them. If Manny is in LA, there aren’t many teams left that are searching for bats that would give them decent deals, and there stands a good chance that one of them either sits out for a bit, or takes a bad deal.

by toonsterwu on Jan 19, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not so sure

Living here in Northern VA, the Nationals really need to do something to raise some kind of interest. Dunn would be a perfect fit in that he at least hits mammoth home runs. I know numerous people that are eliminating or cutting back on their season ticket packages. The Nats have to do something. The constant signing of failed prospects is getting old.

by rlpete on Jan 20, 2009 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Which is better? Or is it close enough to be a wash??

Both Players are not very good defensively. Player B plays on a very good team with protection in the lineup and player A plays in a lineup without great protection.

Player A Player B

games-158 162
ab’s-517 610
hits-122 153
doubles-23 26
triples-0 4
hr’s-40 48
rbi’s-100 146
runs-79 105
walks-122 81
k’s-164 199
sb-2 1
cs-1 1
avg.-.236 .251
obp-.386 .339
slg-.513 .543
ops-.898 .881

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 19, 2009 6:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's Ryan Howard, right?

The only difference is that Howard’s average is likely to bounce back next year, making him better than the numbers indicate. At the same time, Dunn is probably the better defender. Howard get’s the edge, but it’s not as big as one would think.

by dakoose on Jan 19, 2009 7:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just wanted to prove a point......

I made a post suggesting the Phillies trade Howard because of his increasing salary due to arbitration and that the fact the Phillies have a record number of arb cases. their payroll isn’t gonna be able to handle all of those cases eventually and Howard seems to be the only one that is not willing to make a deal.

I got flamed in which I expected but no one seemed to accept my point. I said the market for Howard wouldn’t be that big due to his contract. I said I didn’t think that anyone would give up 2-3 top prospects like Soto plus take on that kinda money. Of course I got flamed and belittled because most made Howard out to be one of the best in baseball.

Point is, Howard and Adam Dunn are very comparable and there seems to be very little market for Dunn because of the asking price. So was my post that said Howard could be had for a D. Lee and prospects that far off?? Especially considering he’s asking for a 5+ million raise again this year with 2 yrs of arbitration left to go? Remember the Phillies are gonna soon have to make decisions on personnel considering their lack of starting pitching and abundance of young,quality major league arbitration eligible players.

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 19, 2009 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

I would take Dunn over Howard regardless of their contracts. I think Dunn is a Ryan Howard who also walks, which automatically makes him the more valuable player IMO.

I think if Dunn hadn’t been wallowing away in Cincinnati all these years, he could be a guy with TV endorsements and MVP buzz. I wouldn’t necessarily call him a super-star, but I kinda of think of Ryan Howard as ‘Adam Dunn Lite’

by WittyUserName on Jan 20, 2009 8:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Three words: Dunn draws walks.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 20, 2009 9:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly my point

when I started talking about the Phillies trading Howard, a bunch of people said there would no shortage of teams in the market for him blah blah blah. to which I said there would be very few because of his large contract. Howard is no better than adam dunn. there is no team wanting to sign him for 10 + million and he’s a free agent.

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 20, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

While Dunn does draw more walks,

it’s not as if Howard has no plate patience. Howard’s career walk rate is 13.8%, a number which only two players on the Cubs bested last year, those being Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds.
And while Howard might not walk as much as Dunn, he makes up for it by hitting for a higher average. Even with his atrocious first half, Howard hit 15 points better than Dunn, and for their careers Howard has a thirty two point advantage. In terms of OBP, Dunn is only ONE point better. The three projection systems on FanGraphs, Marcel, Chone and Bill James’s, see a big bounceback year for Howard.

by dakoose on Jan 20, 2009 11:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You know what

I didn’t realize just how good Howard’s 06 and 07 OBP was. His 06 numbers were just insane.

I don’t see Howard being a .300 again, I’m pretty sure I see him as a .270 hitter, give or take, for the majority of the remainder of his career.

Also, BA for these guys isn’t as much of a factor. Sure, a higher average is much more appealing and attractive, but these guys aren’t in there to make contact, they are there to smash XBH and not make outs, which their respective “wheels” wouldn’t assist very well in legging out a slow roller.

Given that, I think that Howard may be better than Dunn, but not by a whole lot.

Both of these guys are pure sluggers and play poor defense at positions where it’s acceptable to play poor defense. In such a case, OPS is really the only thing you have to make a clear decision on. Howard no doubt gained some benefit from having a solid lineup around him, by no means did the rest of that lineup hit his homers or draw his walks for him, but that impact can’t be completely ignored. I think if given the same, or similar, circumstances, that Dunn could have numbers about as good as Howard’s.

It should also be noted that in the two years (06 and 07) that Howard had great a great OBP, he drew 37 and 35 intentional walks, out of a total 108 and 107 BB, respectively. Now that speaks volumes about him as a power threat, but it greatly detracts from his supposed ‘patience’ at the plate. Dunn has never drawn more than 14 IBB in a season, and has had at least 100 walks per season every year of his career other than ’01 and ’03, where he only appeared in 66 and 116 games.

by WittyUserName on Jan 21, 2009 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just checked

If you take away his 35 IBB from 07, Howard’s OBP is .43 points lower, at .349 in his other 613 plate appearances.

You have to give him credit for instilling enough fear to earn a free pass, but I’d be hesitant to compare his career OBP with Dunn’s.

This also makes me re-think, again, as to which of the two I’d rather have. A significantly higher OBP is much more valuable than a slightly higher SLG.

by WittyUserName on Jan 21, 2009 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

If Dunn comes that cheap (and he won’t), sign him, eat some of Soriano’s contract and trade Soriano for a stud shortstop.

by frustratedfan on Jan 19, 2009 8:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Eat some of Soriano's contract?

Sorry, but even in good economic times Soriano’s contract is an albatross. Now its simply horrific. I can’t even begin to guess how much of Soriano’s salary the Cubs would have to take on.

by dmlichte on Jan 19, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting idea...

…but it’s unlikely the Cubs would be able to chow down on an adequate amount. Did you have any specific stud shortstops in mind?

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 20, 2009 9:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sori

Is going nowhere, the $18m/year coming up will scare teams away, unless we eat a sickening amount. Hendry over paid for Soriano, to make up for not getting Beltran or Furcal, and no one will take his salary on, except maybe the Yanks, who have no want or need for him.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 19, 2009 9:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

if Dunn's price somehow comes close to the $5M level being bandied about here

I would hope that the Indians give some strong consideration to signing him, especially if Dunn goes for a 1 or 2 year deal until the market improves. They have room for him in the outfield if that’s where he wants to play and I think the fans there would love him. He’d fit right in with Travis “Pronk” Hafner and Ryan “Gark” Garko, a couple of 6’3" 230-240 pounders.

Personally, I don’t think $5M is very realistic, but even something like $8M would be attractive.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 19, 2009 9:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

dunn at first base?

for 5 million…

by cubsmania on Jan 19, 2009 10:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn will prove to be an outstanding value to some AL team

My bet is he winds up with the Angels and it becomes an outstanding move for them when you consider the contract dollars versus the run production value Dunn turns in.

by BLou on Jan 20, 2009 9:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If we're so hard up for cash,

then why did we sign Bradley so early? We could have waited, signed Dunn on the cheap, and had money left over for other things. If nothing else, letting more time pass probably would have brought Bradley’s price tag down with Dunn and Abreu still out there looking for work.

by reedjohnson on Jan 20, 2009 12:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn is a DH feebly masquerading at a NL outfielder

There is no way on God’s green earth the Cubs could have ever fielded an outfield with Alfonso Soriano in left AND Adam Dunn in right. That would have been unworkable. Unless of course the strategy was to abandon the major leagues and sign the Cubs up instead of a local 16 inch softball league.

by BLou on Jan 20, 2009 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Unless

We did one of the below
play four outfielders and four infielders
gave the CF a jet pack

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 20, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I still think you're exagerrating...

…but I am much more comfortable defensively with Milton Bradley – with the obvious and oft-repeated caveat that he’s able to stay healthy.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 20, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Milton Bradley is a plus-outfielder if his knee is recovered

The Bradley I remember with the Expos, Indians, Dodgers and A’s had plus outfield range and a good arm. He was limited in 2008 because he was coming off reconstructive knee surgery in fall 2007. Heck, he wasn’t really even expected to play in 2008.

I’m worried about plenty of things, but Bradley in right field is not one of them.

by BLou on Jan 20, 2009 6:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because it was apparent

that the Cubs had zero interest is trying to see if Dunn could move to RF. The biggest concern would be what if he couldn’t. Then what?

Did you see his RF9 in right field last season? I know that is not the best indicator but Dunn was 1.43 compared to a league average 2.12. At a minimum that shows that there might be a problem. At least in LF, he is close to league average. Dunn has played a grand total of 82 games in RF and before 23 last season (where he stunk) nothing since 2003.

by rlpete on Jan 21, 2009 10:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs