If Carpenter gets right, that’s a team that always scares me. They tend to outperform expectations.

Outside of the Cubs.

I think bringing up the rear is Pittsburgh. I think Huntington has them going in the right direction, but they need some more pitching and they need McCutchen and Alvarez to come through. That’ll take time.

The rest, though, is a mix. I do think the Cubs are the clear favorites entering the year.

After that, as of right now, I like

2) Milwaukee – I buy Gallardo and Parra. They need another mid-rotation starter to allow Bush/Suppan to bring up the rear, and they need a pen arm or two. But they have the system, even despite the losses to make moves … provided that Yovani and Manny come through. Who knows, maybe it comes internally. Yes, Jeffress has a checkered past, but if he keeps his head on straight, he could be a huge asset.

3) St. Louis Cardinals – I could easily pick them two. One of the more underrated systems out there, they have two bats that could help them soon in Brett Wallace and Colby Rasmus, along with a bevy of decent talent. They might need another arm in the pen, but I like Chris Perez enough that I don’t think the pen is a glaring issue. If you buy Duncan’s ability to make wine out of water, then maybe you go St. Louis. But … their pitching in the minors is a bit weak and I don’t buy the rotation options as a dominant rotation. A healthy Carpenter presents an intriguing possibility, so that would be something to watch, but as of now, I’m just not sold they find enough pitching.

4) Cincinnati Reds – I like the young bats on the team. I like the young arms, and the pen should be fine. They are young, though, so I expect some ups and downs.

5) Houston Astros – Yes, they could be 2. They are banking on Hampton in the rotation as help. Their system is a mess. Can they make the necessary rally … all while their players are aging and payroll is being restricted somewhat?

A lot of time to go, though

but it doesn’t look terribly good right now.

Granted, I was expecting a decline from DeRosa this year. But trading him and replacing him with Miles puts a lot more pressure on the other regulars to stay healthy. And we were already starting from a negative with Edmonds’ bat gone (and I wouldn’t have expected a repeat performance from Edmonds either, by the way) and with Theriot probably unlikely to repeat his career year.

So now, if we sign Bradley, we’re counting on Bradley to stay healthy and be 2007-2008 Bradley and not 2004-2006 Bradley at the plate. And we’re counting on Ramirez and Soriano to stay healthy. And we’re counting on either Miles or Fontenot to repeat their 2008 performances. It’s possible that the offense could be as good or better than it was in 2008. But I wouldn’t count on it based on the moves made.

And add to that the fact that the bullpen has gotten worse (moving Marmol to a less important role and replacing Wood with Gregg is a step backwards) and the rotation isn’t necessarily better (Harden is an injury risk and who knows if Dempster will come close to repeating his shocking 2008). It doesn’t look like the best of offseasons for Hendry.

Aaron Harang is a vastly better pitcher than his wretched 2008 performance. Also, very talent youngsters in Johnny Cueto and Edwin Volzquez should get better, with both having the potential to become elite pitchers in the NL. Homer Bailey is also very highly touted but has disappointed to date. Bronso Arroyo and Micah Owings aren’t bad back of the rotation starters either. Plus the Reds have some nice bullpen arms and a proven closer in Cordero.

I wouldn’t underestimate the Reds in 2009. I’m not saying they are going to be legitimate playoff contender, but they are a team on the definite rise. Keep in mind Walt Jocketty is running the shop too.