Sneaking Suspicion

by northernsails on Jan 20, 2009 8:41 AM CST

It seems to me that most people here want utter and complete perfection. That the only thing that will make you fully content is to have a lineup of All-Stars and a rotation full of Cy Young-winners backed up by a bullpen full of young, K-rod wanna-bes. I dont need to point out to you how impossible that is. I also dont need to say how proud it makes me feel to be a fellow fan of this team. As fans, we SHOULD be expecting the best of our team. We do pay to attend their games, after all. The fact that we have a general manager who cares about that is something that I am thankful for. In this day and age, major sporting events are fine diversions from whatever happened to the stock market lately, at the very least.

To summarize, the Chicago Cubs are the reigning and defending NL Central Champs and utter failures in two straight postseasons when they were favored to go to the Series both times. That's a fairly bipolar prospect. Then we factor in an offense that was in the top 5 in the NL in many categories, a pitching staff that led the majors in strikeouts (as Larry Rothschild-managed staffs tend to do) and did well in other categories, and the loss of several fan-favorite players in exchange for lower-level pieces that may or may not be a part of some larger deal by the aforementioned GM in getting another top-level pitcher. Analyzing that, they have thus far stood pat on their strong offense and improved, or attempted to improve, their pitching. This is, as many of you know, Jim Hendry's modus operandi.

If nothing at all else happens between now and Opening Day, I look at this offseason as an incomplete. Losing our closer couldn't be helped as we could not offer him what he wanted. What we gained was a serviceable arm to compete with Carlos Marmol for the job. Losing DeRosa removes a lot of versatility and clubhouse presence, but gaining Gameboard brings a good bat, good defense and...clubhouse presence. While I never advocated the trade for Bradley, or Dunn, OR Abreu, for various reasons, I also knew that Fukudome needed someone to give him time to adjust to this league.

We still do not have a prototypical leadoff hitter (not that there's necessarily anything wrong with the one we have right now).

Nor do we have an actual shortstop.

Or an outfielder in our own system that we can develop effectively.

Regardless, I am very much looking forward to Opening Day and the months ahead.

Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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i too look forward to opening day

but i also like playing GM in the off season :)

by Cubinator on Jan 20, 2009 8:52 AM CST reply actions

I'll make my judgements when the roster is set

Until then, it’s work in progress. But it’s always nice to speculate though!

Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 20, 2009 8:57 AM CST reply actions

Middle infield

The most troubling aspect of this team “could” be the middle infield. I’ve always adhered to the belief that you have to be strong up the middle defensively. Nobody can say with a straight face that Theriot, Miles and Fontenot are solid defensively.

My assumption is that Hendry is going to see how this middle infield plays out for a couple months. If it’s not getting the job done then he can always go out and acquire a Jack Wilson who will solidify things defensively. Or who knows, there may be bigger and better names available as teams continue to aggressively manage payroll and purge big contracts. Or it may be the case that Hendry likes the future potential of Nate Spears or Ryan Flaherty. Which I have a hard time accepting because both seem to fall into the category of limited skill over-achievers ala Theriot, Miles and Fontenot.

by BLou on Jan 20, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions

I agree.

The middle infield is a risk. I wish instead of adding a player like Rich Aurilia, we could find a way to diversify our risk by trading for someone who can play 3B-SS-2B well, someone like Maicer Izturis. (But you never know if the Angels just wouldn’t be willing to consider trading him. I do like giving Fontenot a shot (fwiw, his defensive rating came out fairly nice, if you believe in RZR).

The biggest concern is that there isn’t much available at SS. A mid-season trade could require our taking on Julio Lugo’s contract.

The bullpen also is a concern, but the ’pen could also end up working very well if players like Guzman and/or Marshall/Olson thrive.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Jan 20, 2009 9:53 AM CST up reply actions

I noticed on MLB Network last night that...

…Alex Cintron is still available. IIRC, the Cubs took a look at him last season. I believe he’s a fairly solid shortstop, defensively speaking. Just a thought.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 20, 2009 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

I don't think the Cubs ...

were favored to go to the World Series in 2007. Some experts picked them, but that’s not quite the same thing.

Am I wrong?

by elgato on Jan 20, 2009 9:16 AM CST reply actions

That's what I recall

the Cubs were considered the “hot” team because they had baseball best record since June ‘07 (or whenever Mount Lou erupted), but they certainly weren’t the consensus favorite. I think the Red Sox were.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Jan 20, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions

Odds to win the 2007 World Series Championship

The Yankees and Tigers were early favorites, as were the Mets.

Team Feb. Odds Dec. Odds
Yankees 7/2 4/1
Tigers 5/1 10/1
Mets 8/1 6/1
Cubs 8/1 12/1
White Sox 8/1 8/1
Cardinals 8/1 10/1
Angels 10/1 10/1
Giants 10/1 50/1
Red Sox 10/1 12/1
Dodgers 13/1 15/1
Blue Jays 15/1 15/1
Phillies 15/1 15/1
Rockies 90/1 70/1

Remember, the Rockies (90-73) finished 2nd in NL Western Division, were a Wild Card team, and ended up losing to the Red Sox in the World Series.

"Every team will win 60 games, every team will lose 60 games, it's what the team does in the other 42 games that decides the season."

by flachimesa on Jan 20, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions

I believe I actually said...

that they were favored to go to the Series. Not necessarily win it.

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 3:05 AM CST up reply actions

Yes, you did.

The odds of going to the World Series and winning it are two different sets of odds.

This is for informational purposes.

"Every team will win 60 games, every team will lose 60 games, it's what the team does in the other 42 games that decides the season."

by flachimesa on Jan 21, 2009 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

I've actually come around to kinda dig...

…what Hendry has done this off-season. He could’ve done little to nothing at all, but he seems to have a strategy in mind and, for better or worse, he’s carrying it out. I’d rather have a GM do that than do nothing at all.

Sure, I was sad to see Woody, DeRo and Pie go, but I’ve come to terms with why each is no longer on the team. The Ceda for Gregg deal still makes me a little anxious, but I’m willing to give Gregg a chance. And I’m cautiously optimistic on Milton Bradley.

In any case, I think it remains a little early to give the off-season a grade just yet. Let’s see whether anything else develops before spring training.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 20, 2009 10:15 AM CST reply actions 1 recs

It is possible...

… that the Cubs would be better off leaving Marmol doing what he has been — i.e., putting out 7th and 8th inning fires — and letting Gregg come in to bases-empty closing situations in the 9th.

If you bring Gregg in with runners on base, the walks are going to kill us.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 20, 2009 1:13 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I agree.

I’d rather see Marmol give Gregg the chance to close games, and then endure some Dempsterian saves on the part of Gregg, then sit there and watch the Cubs lose leads in late innings because Gregg gives up runs trying to set up Marmol. (OK, now let me say that five times fast.)

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 20, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

Right...

but the problem is that Kevin Gregg just doesn’t strike the kind of fear into opposing hitters in the ninth inning that Kerry Wood did. That’s part of what I’ve been saying. The whole dominance of the Cubs’ bullpen last season was the ability to go from Jeff Samardzija in the 7th, to Marmol in the 8th, to Wood in the 9th. That really helped out the starters because, when you have three dominant arms like that ending the game, you dont have to go more than 6 innings. Now what? Ok, Samadzija and Marmol are still here. Should Piniella keep them where they were last season? Then Gregg is a severe reduction in ability from Wood as a closer. If you put one of the aforementioned pair in as the closer, the corresponding inning becomes weaker, which is arguably a worse possibility.

Catch-22

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 3:08 AM CST up reply actions

I agere with you regarding the fear factor.

But what would YOU fear more?

Gregg pitching with the bases loaded in the 8th?

Or Gregg pitching with the bases empty in the 9th?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 21, 2009 4:40 AM CST up reply actions

I think it's more a question of what I fear LESS

That being Gregg pitching in the 9th. Remember that he was effective with the Marlins in that role. Hardly Wood-esque. Hell, he wasn’t even Dempster-esque as a closer. But he got the job done, and there’s a much less chance of him coming in with men on base in those situations, as you’ve said before. Either way, something is definitely lost.

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 6:48 AM CST up reply actions

I actually found Gregg pretty scary in '07.

That was the first time I ever really took notice of him – in that killer Marlins sweep at season’s end. He was, however, far less intimidating last season.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 21, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions

Not going to happen

As stated before, the best and brightest arm in a bullpen is always given consideration to be closer. It is a rite of passage in baseball that Carlos Marmol has earned. He’s done his time as a top set-up man and earned the opportunity to close. Chicks dig closers, and that’s where the money is to be made.

Kevin Gregg is strictly ‘plan B’ material when it comes to closer role. It is Marmol’s job to lose.

by BLou on Jan 21, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions

You're probably right...

…though, during the convention, Lou did say there would be an open competition for the closer’s spot in spring training.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 21, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions

Lou was being diplomatic

Carlos Marmol would have visit Dr. Frankenstein and have him surgically replace his head with the 10 cent noggin of Kyle Farnsworth for him not to be Cub closer in 2009.

by BLou on Jan 21, 2009 11:00 AM CST up reply actions

No, he would just have to pitch worse than Gregg in spring training.

You know how Lou plays the hot hand. If Howry had outpitched Wood last year in ST, Howry would have started the year as closer.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 21, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions

...which makes it interesting to see...

…what kind of effect the WBC might have on Carlos.

I could actually see Gregg getting the “veteran nod” and starting the year as closer but eventually relinquishing the job when Lou gets sick of him walking guys in the ninth.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 21, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions

Again...

… better he walks one in the ninth with no one on, than walking one in the eighth with the bases loaded.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 21, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions

I agree.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 21, 2009 2:57 PM CST up reply actions

Pride/ego/whatever

I agree fully. I think the biggest loss in losing Wood (from a pure baseball perspective) is the presumptive move of Marmol into the 9th inning role, not replacing Wood with Gregg.

That said, p-layers view the 9th inning reliever as the top reliever. Like it or not, it would be a “slap in the face” to Marmol to pass him over for that role.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 21, 2009 8:55 AM CST up reply actions

Really a failure, well I disagree

Nothing is in a vacuum as you appear to place your judgment but even in that context what is it that you would have done?

Adding, adding even to a strength like starting pitching adds to the bullpen it is relative. Adding a pitcher that will provide 20-24 or more quality starts in place of a pitcher who provided 12 is huge improvement, on top of four other pitchers who also provide between 18-24 quality starts. In real terms that is innings, games with leads, games that remain competitive and place the Cubs into the best odds to getting into the playoffs.

Now moving Fukudome to CF could be an improvement, and I have confidence that off season training will result in the same improvements that Dempster’s did, even to the cynicism many here attributed to Dempster’s off season conditioning.

Now the man-love for Wood is real but Gregg is healthier, more versatile and is in his FA year. So in the context Hendry only wanted one year with Wood and he instead traded a promise for one year of a healthy solid late inning pitcher.

DeRosa essentially for Miles, comb sea, comb sa…..both are very good platoon/super utility players.

Bradley…a risk but payoff…..

So where is the beef? Possibly trading spare parts, MLB ready prospects and a big promise for a Cy Young pitcher? I equate it like how the Braves landed Maddux….it completed their rotation.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jan 20, 2009 1:13 PM CST reply actions

Not to be obessive or anything

But let’s not give the Cubs that much credit IF they land a Cy Young pitcher for spare parts and MLB ready prospects because as we all know that is A LOT MORE than Atlanta paid for Maddux. Remeber it was Larry " I can get two or 3 pitchers for what I would pay for Maddux" Himes who let him WALK, Cubs got nothing but 11 years of watching him mow down everything in sight.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Jan 20, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions

There's a huge difference you're leaving out

Maddux was a FA, Peavy is not. The Cubs have to put together a package of players to get Peavy. All Maddux had to do was sign on the dotted line. Then on a separate but still related note Himes is a complete dumb-ass.

Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 20, 2009 2:54 PM CST up reply actions

Um that is what I meant

I was trying to say there was no comparison between a potentiall Peavy deal and letting Maddux walk.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Jan 20, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions

you're suggesting

Miles and DeRosa should be considered equals?

okay….

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 20, 2009 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

I didn't imply a vaccuum...

but you cannot deny that the Cubs’ performances in the playoffs the past 2 years was decidedly underwhelming at best.

As far as what the Cubs added, I mentioned that losing Wood could not be helped since management was either unwilling or unable to give him the big multi-year contract he wanted. What the Cubs have picked up this offseason was quantity over quality. If they find a way to get Peavy, that will likely change.

Moving Fukudome to center is the obvious solution to the outfield problems, but it is a patch-up job. First of all, Kosuke doesn’t have quite the range in center that he does in right. Second, what happens when Bradley inevitably goes down? That idea is effectively bandaging a deep laceration.

Gregg may be healthier, but there is no question that he doesn’t impress opposing hitters quite like Kerry Wood did. Call it “man-love” if you must, but the truth of the matter is that opponents do not want to face Kerry Wood. They wont look at Kevin Gregg in quite the same way.

DeRosa was a fan favorite and, while Miles is versatile, you cannot compare them. They are different players. Miles is closer to Theriot than DeRosa, a singles-hitter. DeRosa can carry an offense for a day, and has in the past.

Bradley’s risk is quite major. He is injury-prone, sulky when he’s not in a great position, and not very friendly with certain umpires.

Again, as I said in the introductory thread, this offseason is graded by me as “Incomplete” thus far.

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 3:19 AM CST up reply actions

Jury is still out

While we are still in the off season , pitchers and catchers report in three and a half weeks .. What has been discussed today in this blog and for the last two years .. is a bonafide leadoff hitter .. also someone pointed out a true middle infielder .. I am pushing for a deal to get Brian Roberts .. or I am dreaming … The Cubs need to put soriano down lower in the batting order .. Soriano can not complain if the Cubs have a true leadoff hitter .. also checking Brian Roberts stats …fourth in runs scored .. fourth in steals , third in walks , fourth in extra basehits .. in the AL last year .. let alone he swicth hits .. and he bats better left handed .. on top of that he has a great glove and arm at second base

by CUBFANINAZ on Jan 20, 2009 6:14 PM CST reply actions

Soriano...

I believe I read somewhere that he said he would be more than willing to hit lower in the order if the Cubs picked-up a legitimate leadoff hitter. I think it was the Sun-Times…

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 3:22 AM CST up reply actions

You're probably dreaming about Roberts.

Why wouldn’t Hendry have done a deal for BRob at the same time he dealt Pie and picked up Olson and Williamson? Looks to me like Baltimore intends to stick with Roberts and Markakis as “face of the franchise”-type guys.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by daver on Jan 21, 2009 10:54 AM CST up reply actions

I too believe you should be strong defensively, up the middle.

And i think the Cubs are strong.Soto is solid. Fontenot is a plus 2nd basemen. And Johnson, Fukudome and Gathright make a respectable center field. Theriot is the weakest but he will make all the routine plays. And as long as he performs offensively, we can’t complain. And I’m not even a Theriot fan. Time will tell if I bullpen is good enough. I think it is. Hendry couldn’t spend the money on Wood. I think he did what he had to do in a “win now” mode, by getting Gregg. And for those of you who constantly harp about Bradley’s injury history and completely ignore Kerry Wood’s, well, all I can say is……..cmon. I had a blast last summer watching this team. And I’m looking foward to another great summer. The only thing that can stop the Cubs from winning their division right now, is major injuries to their pitching staff. The Brewers lost their top two starters and the Cards will be a pain in our butts, like they always are under La Russa, but the Cubs are better. And in a 162 game schedule, the best teams win.

by Rick B on Jan 21, 2009 5:09 AM CST reply actions

I never mentioned Wood's injury history...

because I really didn’t need to. I mean, c’mon! You’re talking to a group of big-time Cubs uberfans here. Bradley’s something of an enigma. In the right situation, with the correct staffing and support, I feel he could really blossom for the Cubs. But he needs everything to fall into place.

by northernsails on Jan 21, 2009 6:51 AM CST reply actions