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Coffee Is For Closers

In this morning's Tribune, Fred Mitchell reports that Lou Piniella hasn't settled on a closer yet:

photo via mlb.mlb.com

"Let them compete," Piniella said during the Cubs Convention. "I feel comfortable with Marmol, no question. But we traded for this other young man, and he was a closer over (with the Florida Marlins) with success. Give him a chance too."

To which I say, excellent! Carlos Marmol has the best stuff in the Cubs' bullpen. Many teams have taken that "best stuff" guy and made him their closer. But often, closers come into games in low-leverage situations: ninth inning, three-run lead, bases empty. Most major league pitchers can get three outs and pile up saves in those situations. Often, the tougher situations come in the 7th or 8th innings, with games tied or only a one-run lead and runners in scoring position. Last year, Kevin Gregg, while closing for the Marlins, walked 37 batters in 68.2 innings. Marmol walked 41 in 87.1 innings, and 14 of those 41 walks came in that inexplicably bad 15-game stretch between June 19 and July 24 when he allowed 11 earned runs in 12.2 innings and his season ERA jumped from 2.09 to 3.40. After that he settled down and from July 26 to the end of the season, a span covering 30 appearances and 31.2 innings, he walked only 12, struck out 39 and posted a 1.42 ERA.


photo via i2.cdn.turner.com

Meanwhile, Gregg had eight saves (out of his season total of 29) where he issued at least one walk. Before several September games in which he was used in situations where the Marlins were either behind or well ahead, he was used in the 8th inning only three times all year (the only times he posted a save of longer than one inning, and once where the Marlins were well behind and it appears Fredi Gonzalez just wanted to give him some work). He did get better about the walks in the second half of the year (27 before the All-Star break, 10 after, but then, he made 46 of his 72 appearances before the break). I'm just not convinced that putting Gregg in setup situations where he might come into a tie game with the bases loaded in the 8th inning -- where a walk puts you behind -- is the best use for a guy like him without pinpoint control.

There's no doubt in my mind that Marmol can handle the closer role -- he did so effectively while Kerry Wood was on the DL in midseason 2008, and he has the stuff and the right mindset for it. But would holding out Marmol for the ninth inning only mean that Gregg, setting him up, would have blown the lead and there wouldn't be anything for Marmol to save?

Kevin Gregg is probably a one-year Cub; he'll be a free agent after 2009, and that gives Cub relievers like Jeff Samardzija and Angel Guzman one more season to be eased into a setup role for Marmol, who could take over as closer in 2010. For now, I think the best use of Lou Piniella's bullpen would be for Gregg to close, after Marmol has put out the fires in the 7th or 8th inning.

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I think Gregg

will issue less walks, and his numbers will improve. I believe a catcher calling a better game, and having a better cast of players behind him defensively will allow him to feel more comfortable throwing strikes.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 8:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I hope you're right.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 8:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The only downside I see would be bruising Marmol's ego

I don’t care that much, except that it might affect his performance. Also, when does Marmol become a free-agent? Old-schoolers will hate it, but I would definitely give the closer job to Marmol if it gives him more incentive to stay here long term.

by TC Cubby on Jan 22, 2009 8:44 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I too believe Marmol to be the better pitcher but

you have made a good argument.

I would be perfectly happy to have Marmol in that fireman role. It may also create some strategic angst in the other dugout as there is less certainty when the great arm comes out of the bullpen.

by N Oakley on Jan 22, 2009 8:46 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

OTOH

Rothschild seems attuned to the worries of many of us here regarding Marmol’s overuse, and says this of moving Marmol to the closer’s role:

“We could run into some bumps in the road, but you could look at the other side of it and say it’s actually going to be a little easier for him because he’s not going to be up and down as much. He’s not going to pitch as many multiple innings, so he should stay fresher and maybe be a little bit better.”

by TC Cubby on Jan 22, 2009 8:50 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, he might not get into as many games...

… after Gregg blows 7th and 8th inning leads.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 8:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gregg = 2008 Howry?

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 22, 2009 11:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's hope not.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take a step back

Gregg = 2008 Cotts. Cotts got out of most of his jams, but not all of them.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

huh looking at the stats

I’m surprised to see Cotts pitched as many games that he did. Seems like I probably just missed most of those games, but I thought he rarely pitched that much last sesaon..

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 22, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he usually came in

for one out. Cotts did ok last year. He wasn’t dominating, and that made him easy to forget…

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, he played in 50 games hard to believe

I do know Howry pitched alot though haha

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 22, 2009 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I'd agree.

Cotts likely pitched just well enough to earn himself another roster spot in ‘09. His problem seemed to be giving up hits. He allowed 38 hits in 35.2 innings, which isn’t good. And he had a 1.43 WHIP. But he really didn’t walk that many guys – only 13 in those 35.2 innings and he struck out 43 for a nice 43:13 K:BB ratio.

Like you said, though, Lou must’ve pulled him quite quickly, quite often, because Cotts put in many, many more innings with the White Sox in ’04, ’05 and ’06. Perhaps this is another instance of Lou using a player judiciously for best results (see also Fontenot, Mike).

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 22, 2009 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Apples and Oranges

Al, your argument is like that of others but I’m not so sure I would agree entirely with the logic. I do agree that high-pressure innings should be handled by your best bullpen arm, which I also believe to be Marmol, but your hypothetical scenarios have some flaws.

First, if you’re asking Marmol to come into a close game in the 7th or 8th, unless you presume the Cubs are scoring additional runs to widen the lead, the 9th inning will be just as stressful as the 7th and 8th. If you’re nursing a one-run lead in the 7th and 8th, there is an equally likely chance you’re doing the same in the 9th. If that is the case, would you rather have Marmol in the 7th or 8th and Gregg in the 9th, or the converse? The line is much more blurry under that normal circumstance.

Additionally, since I can almost state for certain that Piniella won’t use a closer by committee, since the adage “if you have two, you don’t have one” would apply in that situation, you’d have to be pretty convincing with an argument that you should “save” Gregg for the 9th instead of pitching him in the 7th and 8th because he’s vulnerable. That kind of logic usually doesn’t apply. Just my two cents.

And for the record, I think Marmol should close for certain reasons, one of which is to limit his workload somewhat after two heavy usage seasons.

Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?

by krummy12 on Jan 22, 2009 8:57 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I believe the difference is the closer has the

luxury of usually coming in for the 9th and starting the inning, therefore no base runners.

The fireman/setup man could come in anytime in the 7th or 8th with any combination of baserunners. In this case, Gregg’s pattern of walking a batter would give up a run with the sacks loaded.

by N Oakley on Jan 22, 2009 9:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

That’s the point — to use your best pitcher in the highest-leverage situations, and a guy who might not be quite as good when the bases are empty and no one out.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Which

Marmol was an All Star doing, I would like to see him continue in that role.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 10:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And,

as example, Marmol can get the last out in a tough 7th inning with men on base and still come out for the 8th and pitch to 4 batters. I would rather have that then a guy who puts a man on in the 9th and has to pitch to 4 batters. Marmol is valuable where he is.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Jan 22, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed!

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 2:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"inexplicably bad 15 game stretch"

ha!

forgive me but i thought the word inexplicably suggested we have no possible explanation for the cause

we all know the cause, he was ridden like a mule right before that “inexplicable” collapse. He was pitching with a fatigued arm that was causing his arm slot to fall and impacting his control and his “stuff”

we’ve been through this before

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 9:04 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Here are some numbers.

Marmol made 37 appearances in 70 team games before that 15-game stretch, and pitched great.

He made 15 appearances in 29 team games in the “bad” 15-game stretch, and pitched bad.

Then, he made 30 appearances in the final 63 team games, and again pitched great.

That’s a consistent one appearance for every two team games basically all year. I still say the 15-game stretch is inexplicable.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

he also seemed to have that

trying to pitch perfectly in an attempt to make the All Star Game. once he made it, he seemed to relax again

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

how about some better numbers?

you’re using really broad time periods to assess his use, why not drill down further? So the “inexplicable stretch” was from June 19 to July 24th right? It was really from June 19th to July 12th as he actually ran off a streak of 15 consecutive scoreless appearances after the July 12th meltdown against the Giants

Why don’t we take a look at the data directly before that period and compare it to the data directly before he got back on track, wouldn’t that make sense?

For example directly before that stretch from June 19h – July 24th:

Marmol appeared in 14 of the Cubs 21 games (this is from May 24th – June 15th). The Cubs had 1 off day in that span, so Marmol pitched (not counting days he warmed up and didnt get in) on 14 of 22 days.

In terms of appearances that’s a 67% clip as opposed to you previously stated. If you include the 2 games right before the meltdown it would be 14 of the club’s 23 games for a 61% clip, and 14 of the last 24 days (58%)

So when he got “right” again when did it happen to come?

Well…. shockingly enough right after the ASB where he pitched once in a 6 day span (from July 13th to July 19th)

Now going back to your way of judging it let’s just shrink the periods to the two weeks prior and look at his appearances in terms of Cubs game and in terms of days on the calendar

Pre-Inexplicable Period
May 24th – June 15th (22 days prior to disastrous period)

14 appearances in 21 Cubs games (67)
14 appearances in 22 calendar days (64)

Inexplicable Period
June 19th-July 12th (25 days)

12 appearances in 22 Cubs games (55)
12 appearances in 25 calendar days (48)

Rest of Season (including before and after)

56 appearances in 118 Cubs games (47)
56 appearances in 154 Calendar days (36)

Still inexplicable?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the numbers in parenthesis

are the % of games pitched and % of days pitched

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

we have

and the concept that he was “ridden like a mule” still doesn’t hold up.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you’re talking about a difference of two appearances in two days for your “pre-inexplicable period” and your “inexplicable period”. I don’t think it holds up. And I read that article when it came out, and I didn’t agree with it then, either.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

2 days

2 more appearances in those 2 days yes

but that’s kind of missing the point.

Before Marmol got “right” again he also had an additional 6 days where he only threw once

Basically in the period right before he got “right” again, Marmol only pitched 14 times in 32 calendar days

that’s a big difference than the 14 times in 22 days, it’s 10 extra days of rest

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what by chance

didn’t you agree with in the hardballtimes article?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 2:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the conclusion.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 8:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ahhh

so no problem with the method of analysis

no problem with the data collected

just problems with the conclusion… sounds like denial to me

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 23, 2009 7:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My question to Gregg at the Cubs Convention

during the “meet the new Cubs” session:

Fuk-U-Meter: “If you take on the role of a 7th or 8th inning reliever instead of closer, does your mindset change coming in to the game?”

Gregg: “Nothing will change. Coming into the game in the late innings has the same amount of pressure and importance. I’ll prepare myself the same way going in to the 7th or 8th as I would the 9th”.

Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08 (http://www.wearecubsfans.com)

by Fuk-U-Meter on Jan 22, 2009 9:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Sure, he's going to say that...

… and any pitcher SHOULD prepare that way. But there is no doubt that there is more pressure on a pitcher coming in with the bases loaded and, say, a one-run lead, than there is coming in with the bases empty and a three-run lead.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Or, can kill it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Or at least...

…dilute concentration.

by MN exile on Jan 22, 2009 9:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchers

also say it does not matter if they are #1 or #5 in the rotation, but I dare you to place Zambrano #5 and expect him not to be different

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There you go....

Cubbie-Tim, I couldn’t agree more…BUT…If Z said in a press conference that if was ever moved to #5 that he would explode…then we would be on here talking about his maturity….it’s a double edged sword my man

What the ?!?

by kerry wood's hot tub on Jan 25, 2009 12:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

very true

no player will say somethign like that, just as every player will say they expect theri team to be in the playoff hunt come October, even if they are on the Royals (for example)

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 25, 2009 1:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The amount of pressure a pitcher experiences isn't neccesarily

connected to the degree to which the game situation is high leverage. Pressure experience is subjective based on personality and other experiences. No matter how much pressure he feels or not, a 1-out, runners on 1st and 3rd in the 8th is where I want Carlos Marmol pitching because he’s the best pitcher they have in the bullpen.

by philadelphiacub on Jan 22, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure which way I'm leaning

I’m more concerned about the guys leading up to Gregg and Marmol. Shark, Guzman, et. al are far from proven commodities. A big key for the Cubs’ success this year, I think, is someone emerging in a Marmol-esque way.

by elgato on Jan 22, 2009 9:15 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agree

You still need a good lefty for that one hitter or two in the 7th or 8th.

by Jasely on Jan 22, 2009 9:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gregg, Seriously

Those goggles have to go.

by xene on Jan 22, 2009 9:28 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

If the goggles go

so could any semblance of control.

But maybe Zambrano can get him a ‘2 for 1’ discount when he gets his Lasik.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jan 22, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My wife just had it done

we have 2 $500 off coupons that I’d donate

by TC Cubby on Jan 22, 2009 9:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If it's going to help the control

I would recommend sending them here:
1060 West Addison
Chicago, IL 60613-4397

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jan 22, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm gonna have a hard time liking Gregg.

Because he’s there in place of Wood. I’m going to try to reserve my judgment until I see him in action in a Cubs uniform. Try.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Jan 22, 2009 9:31 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wrong

Kevin Gregg is not here to replace Kerry Wood. Merely he is a quality bullpen arm that was acquired to fill a still undetermined role in the pen. Probably only for one year since he will be a free agent.

Cubs made absolute right objective decision on Kerry Wood. Which overruled sentimentality. Wood wanted a three year deal and that was the end of that.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 10:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

However, perception-wise

Gregg is replacing Wood. Because on the day the Cubs announced the Gregg acquisition, they also announced they wouldn’t be bringing back Wood.

So, while Gregg may not be here specifically to replace Wood, in the eyes of many people, it was his acquisition that led to Wood not being a Cub.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jan 22, 2009 10:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

quite.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't concern myself with fan ignorance on a matter

I think you way overestimate the number of Cub fans who will look at Kevin Gregg as the villianous replacement for the beloved Kerry Wood. Cub fans are smarter than that. A lot smarter.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying Cubs fans aren't smart

but the fact is that Gregg and Wood will forever be connected in the minds of many because his arrival was announced the same day that Wood’s departure was. Hardcore Cubs fans will understand that (the people on BCB, for example), but a lot of people won’t.

It’s not about one being a villain and one beloved – it has more to do with losing a closer for a slightly above-average reliever.

I don’t associate the two – the acquisition and announcement just happened on the same day, no big deal – I look at the Cubs moves this offseason as a way to get Bradley and potentially set themselves up for a bigger trade down the trade should the possibility open up.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Jan 22, 2009 1:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Marmol is replacing Wood.

Gregg, Shark, Guzman, and perhaps others are replacing Marmol

by philadelphiacub on Jan 22, 2009 12:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And that isn't exactly a good thing.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 1:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

I didn’t delete it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

no,

there must be some vast conspiracy :)

by TC Cubby on Jan 22, 2009 9:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Obviously! :)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 9:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll tell you who it was!

It was that damn sasquatch!

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 22, 2009 9:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There really wasn't much to discuss

The Trib article was as cryptic as a Mayan doomsday prophesy.

One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.

by chilango2 on Jan 22, 2009 10:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wait, I think you're on to something.

The sale won’t be complete until December 21, 2012.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 22, 2009 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

it was

written by a lefty and signed away by Hendry

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh oh!

Don’t make “Ivy Walls” raise his hackles!

by StevenABQ on Jan 22, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with this post Al

I thought I was in the minority of the people that supported Gregg as closer and Marmol keeping the set-up role. I think it just makes too much sense to do it this way. Good post

Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..

by Chanman25 on Jan 22, 2009 9:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I'll bet the ranch Carlos Marmol is the closer

He has earned the right to step into the closer job and has a long-term future with this organization barring the unforseen. The same cannot be said for Kevin Gregg who is likely a simple one year rental. Marmol has paid his dues so to speak. He is the best and brightest arm in the pen, and the best and brightest arm inevitably gets to close (unless his name is Kyle Farnsworth and he has a ten cent head).

Lou Piniella is speaking like a diplomat right now. I am sure there will be a competition for the closer role in spring training. But I have complete faith the job goes to Marmol barring injury.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 10:09 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Marmol will almost certainly be the closer...

HOWEVER, I don’t think that’s the best use of his talents. Bringing him in with no one on base to get the last three outs is less valuable than bringing him in in a jam to bail the team out and maintain a lead for less difficult situations.

But since the closer role has become the status spot in the bullpen, Marmol will get that job.

by SouthernCub on Jan 22, 2009 11:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Marmol tore it up in the Dominican as a closer

His team, the Tigres de Licey, has won the championship and he saved the final game. The boxscore can be found here. But to sum it up he pitched one inning, no runs, two strikeouts, walked one and got the save.
“The brightest arm in the pen,” as BLou calls him, doesn’t warrant the closer job. If he’s more effective as a 7th-8th inning reliever, as he showed last year, I would keep him there and see what Gregg is made of.
I think Gregg may do a solid job—not quite Kerry Wood-esque—but he can close and save 30 games.

One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.

by chilango2 on Jan 22, 2009 10:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Jose Macias

also had some great Winter Ball seasons………I do not buy too much into the stats from them

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Totally agree.

The closer is a sexier role, but Marmol is young and, assuming he stays healthy, he’ll get there eventually.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 22, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't buy it

I think this whole subject is an overanalysis. I agree that you want your best bullpen arm in the toughest spot but I don’t believe there is a huge difference between needing to get one out with runners on in the 7th or 8th as opposed to starting the 9th with a one-run lead. In fact, you’ve still got three innings to hit if you’re talking about giving up a run to tie the game in the 7th so I think the overanalysis starts right there.

It has been suggested that there is more pressure with runners on in the 7th and 8th of a tight game than there is starting off the 9th with a walk. To that I say nonsense. How many times have you seen closers melt after putting the leadoff guy on base? Plenty.

Of course all of this presumes that Gregg is going to consistently walk guys in the 7th and 8th which is just nonsense. He’ll blow leads and blow saves and so will Marmol. You still build your bullpen from the back end forward and Marmol belongs at that back end right now.

Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?

by krummy12 on Jan 22, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Well, you're wrong...

I’m not going to waste time pointing out each spot where you’re wrong, because they’ve been said ad nauseum on this site (and many other places) and you’re choosing not to believe it.

by SouthernCub on Jan 22, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Competition, ego, "earning" etc.

I would completely agree with Al’s argument. To me, the biggest loss in the Wood for Gregg “trade” was the likely move of Marmol into the 9th inning.

Great that they are having a competition for the closer role.

That said… If, as we expect, Marmol proves to be the superior pitcher, therefore “winning” the competition, how would he react to being slotted in the set-up role again.

The best pitcher will be the closer, for better or worse. I hope that that pitcher is Marmol, simply because I don’t see Gregg being better than him without Marmol struggling.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 22, 2009 10:18 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Being closer is where the fame, glory and BIG MONEY is

Again, Marmol is the best and brightest arm in the Cub bullpen and he has paid his dues and earned the right to be closer. Set-up men, even the best set-up men, don’t have nearly the earning potential of a closer.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 10:43 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said...

Marmol is going to get the closer job, but it’s not in the best interest of the team for him to be used there.

by SouthernCub on Jan 22, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Third place is "your fired"

Great movie.

"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott

by Reddevil on Jan 22, 2009 10:32 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Let Them Compete

Sort it out based on performance in spring training which pitcher is going to be the setup guy and which pitcher will be the closer. Marmol and Gregg need to earn their respective roles.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jan 22, 2009 10:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

How they are used in ST...

… isn’t necessarily how they will be used in the regular season. For example, established closers often pitch the fourth inning early in spring training, because that’s the only time they are guaranteed to face major league hitters. Obviously, the fourth inning is a low-leverage situation. Games in ST are played very differently from regular season games.

Thus, even a successful ST for a closer doesn’t necessarily translate to regular season success.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

True Enough

I am glad that you recognized that the setup role can ultimately be more important than the closer role in the post. We don’t know yet how Marmol would respond to being the full-time closer. We know that Gregg has had some success as a closer. We know how Marmol can do as a setup guy. Gregg was not in the setup role last season with Florida. You can argue that keeping those pitchers in their same roles as last season would be the safest move.

Flipping their roles is a little risky. If that happens, we are not going to see the effectiveness of ineffectiveness until after the regular season starts. At any rate, Marmol and especially Gregg both have to get their walks down.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Jan 22, 2009 11:08 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Marmol's arm

I have a strong feeling that the way Marmol whips his arm around that he may be visiting the DL prior to the end of the 2010 season. I just feel like it’s destined to happen, although of course I’d be upset. He’s one of my favorite Cubs.

by D-Bone on Jan 22, 2009 10:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Usage pattern is yet another argument for making Marmol the closer

Lou Piniella had to turn to Carlos Marmol in the set-up role too many times in 2008 because the rest of the bullpen (closer Kerry Wood excluded) wasn’t reliable and carrying their end of the bargain. Putting Marmol in the closer role provides natural insulation to how much he will be used.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 10:58 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

old school closing?

Lou could ask Marmol to go two innings to get the save

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly!!

I think we will be seeing Carlos Marmol getting plenty of 4 out, 5 out, and even 6 out saves !!

Especially if the game is on the line in the 8th or the rest of the bullpen is pitching like crap.

by MrShowtime on Jan 22, 2009 11:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

which, ironically

could end up with him pitching MORE than last year.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

which

can be good and bad, all rolled into one

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

dammit

I’m on a liquid diet for an uncomfortable medical test I’m undergoing tomorrow. HONGRY.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't eaten anything solid

since 6:30 pm last night.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 8:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Boy, that's the full size...

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 23, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep, that's your big boy.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 23, 2009 12:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't scrolled through the comments yet

so forgive me if it’s already been said. The problem with Lou’s “let ’em compete” comment is that presumably the best pitcher would be the closer (more than likely Marmol) rather than the 7th/8th inning fireman guy.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Jan 22, 2009 11:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...

yes, I suppose I have in fact scrolled through the comments. Should have said hadn’t read through the comments yet. :)

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Jan 22, 2009 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

thank you for clarifying...

peace now abounds in my soul… ahhh….

by digitalbenjamin on Jan 22, 2009 1:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah ha! BUSTED!

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 22, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

09

Stop pretending folks. Marmol is going to have some arm problems next season, Gregg won’t be anything special, and half way during the season, we are going to have to trade for some serious bullpen help. Samardzija will have a better season than both of them. Maybe he’ll end up being the closer before the seasons over….

by TheHawkRules on Jan 22, 2009 11:49 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yikes

Lets hope not.

I believe that Gregg will spend less time on the DL and out perform Wood. Marmol will be in the 8th setting up after pulling a Hawkins trying to close games early. Like Hawkins, Marmol will learn he is beter suited for that role, and will again make the ASG.

Bring on the Kool Aid….Cubs Magic Number 163

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Where do you get

your crystal ball from? :D

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 12:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Its called

Hendry’s Special Kool Aid, it is flavored like great hope with a twist failure. It is stirred by a left handed only.

I am jsut trying to put a positive spin on things, the last two seasons we have done well, and instead of being content with the good seasons, adn failed post season Hendry is trying to shake things up to improve the post season play, so I figured I would try to be positive about the moves and see what happens.

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Al's Resturant

I got the crystal ball from Al’s Resturant.
http://www.alsrestaurant.net/

As for Cubbie-Tim’s Kool Aid, I wouldn’t try any. My neighbor gave some to his snake, and well… watch and see what happens.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqHzEYzXEuA

by TheHawkRules on Jan 22, 2009 1:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

and remember...

…you can have anything you want at Al’s restaurant.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 22, 2009 3:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

TWSS

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 22, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I will be the optimist

and say that neither Gregg or Marmol are going to be the Fireman by the end of the year and that it is going to be Guzman. If that pans out, than you can have Marmol replacing Wood, Guzman replacing Marmol, and Gregg replacing the Good Howry.

I think if we don’t start believing that Guzman or somebody else can excel in the bullpen we are in for a troubled season. I cling to the 07 season as an example. Marmol came out of nowhere to help right the 07 bullpen and I hope that history repeats itself with Guzman or somebody else.

"When two Whales Fight, many Shrimp Die" - Korean Proverb

by TheRiot Police on Jan 22, 2009 11:51 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

+1

Finally, a positive outlook. Yes, if Guzman can step up and finally fulfill his potential, then I’d be absolutely fine with Marmol as closer.

RIP Ron Asheton (1948-2009)

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 22, 2009 12:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That would be the ideal scenario...

Guzman certainly had the stuff at one point to do what Marmol has done. But that was several arm injuries ago. Hopefully he can regain enough of that old form to fill that role.

If he can, then I’d say our bullpen is better than last year’s bullpen. If he can’t, then the middle innings are going to be very dicey.

by SouthernCub on Jan 22, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I would also like Marmol in the role Al describes, if

Piniella wouldn’t over use him. But Lou showed last year that he can’t resist. And one might argue that Marmol’s ineffective streak was from being over used. I’d like to have Marmol for many years, not just a couple, because Lou pulled a Dusty on him.

by Rick B on Jan 22, 2009 12:03 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

John Dewan

was on Murphy’s show last baseball season. He was saying the same thing, you should use your best guy in the bullpen in these types of situations. He had a ton of stats to back up his point, I don’t remember any, but it changed my perspective on the closer role and the pen in general.

I'm finally moving on...

by slocs55 on Jan 22, 2009 12:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

one thing I haven't seen talked about

and i wonder what Cwyers thoughts on this are but the pay-scale for players is still inflated by this useless stat: Saves

Since Saves for some reason are valued more highly than Holds wouldn’t smart teams recognizing the difference is minimal stick their best relievers in the spots for Holds and thus have to pay them less for what they’re doing.

We see this all the time in arbitration hearings and in FA, etc. Great middle relievers still don’t get paid as much as great “Closers”, so why not take advantage of this when Marmol is in his arbitration years and use him out of the middle relief spot to drive down his own salary and save the team some extra money

plus with Gregg entering his FA year, his “Elias ranking” status could be inflated by saves totals. If we stick Gregg in that spot and he gets 25+ saves maybe he’s all of the sudden a Type A FA and we get better draft pick compensation as well

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 22, 2009 1:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's going to come down to one thing - who wants it more

and in my mind, the person that wants it more only has to do one thing…

…just casually start swinging a bat left-handed whenever Lou’s around!

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 22, 2009 1:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It's real easy to prove your point when you make up the future.
But would holding out Marmol for the ninth inning only mean that Gregg, setting him up, would have blown the lead and there wouldn’t be anything for Marmol to save?
Yeah, he might not get into as many games… … after Gregg blows 7th and 8th inning leads.

Christ Al, Gregg’s not that bad. Also, if you’re using this logic, then we could say that Marmol comes in and plays God in the 8th inning, leaving Gregg to blow the lead and lose the game in the 9th. So, if you want to assert Gregg’s fatally bad, he’s going to be fatally bad whenever he pitches.

But often, closers come into games in low-leverage situations: ninth inning, three-run lead, bases empty.
For now, I think the best use of Lou Piniella’s bullpen would be for Gregg to close, after Marmol has put out the fires in the 7th or 8th inning.

What does it matter what inning it’s in? Big situations ("fires") can happen in any inning.

Look, saying who you want to close/set-up is one thing. But basing that decision on handwringing and wild predictions is another.

For me, a closer by two-man committee makes the most sense. Sure, neither Marmol or Gregg are piling up the saves. But, if it’s the 8th inning and Pujols is going to be the 6th batter of the inning, I’m saving Carlos for the 9th (or late in the 8th if Gregg can’t get the job done).

"Thank god I threw out my belt & shoelaces."-Bernies Mustache Wax on Evil BCB, 7/31/08

by Bildo1805 on Jan 22, 2009 1:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

You're right that big situations can happen in any inning.

I was just saying that I think Marmol is better in the runners-on-base situations that setup guys often get, than Gregg would be.

Maybe I went a little over the top trying to prove my point. I still think it’s valid.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 22, 2009 2:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why o' why segment, Part 2

Why o’ why is everybody so quick to crap on Kevin Gregg?!? My goodness, the didn’t come here to be Bruce Sutter in his prime. Rather he is a proven bullpen arm that we are paying a fair wage to and who will likely be gone after one season. Gregg is a proven closer AND fully accepting of the fact that he will likely be asked to be a set-up man instead in Chicago.

I’m expecting good things out of Gregg. I feel a lot better about Gregg being here on a $4.5 million contract for one year than I would Kerry Wood operating under a three year, $25 million something contract and living in perpetual dread that his right arm was about to fall off at any given moment.

by BLou on Jan 22, 2009 3:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not everyone is

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 22, 2009 3:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

you lived in dread

others feel that Woody is an effective closer who is going to get better.

Your continual repetition doesn’t make your opinion any better than anyone else’s.

"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella

by drewishdrewid on Jan 22, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Tiger-iffic Fist Pump required for closer candidates?

Is it part of the prep for that position? Perhaps this was what kept LaTroy from doing anything with the role.

by JCD on Jan 23, 2009 9:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I see what you mean.

This is a weak attempt:

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 23, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So THAT was the problem.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 23, 2009 11:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

why didnt anyone let him know?

"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic

by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 23, 2009 5:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If you respect Harold Reynolds, you'll like what he said on Hot Stove last night.

He loves both Marmol and Gregg. He likes what the Cubs have done this winter.

by Rick B on Jan 24, 2009 7:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Uh-oh

I think Harold Reynolds is a self-important idiot . . .

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 26, 2009 6:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I LOVE THIS

We are actually arguing about which bad ass should close and which bad ass should be the set-up guy. God it’s good to be a Cub fan. BTW, I’m going to Spring Training again this year during spring break, March 16-23rd. I’d love to continue this debate then and in person over a few ice cold Old Styles lol.
My 2 cents: Both are professionals and are very competitive and both will be successful in whatever role Lou places them in. I think most of us who have seen Marmol develop are pulling for his continued success. No doubt about it, he has the kind of stuff that buckles the knees of some of the games best hitters. Hitters fear him. But since we are more familiar with him as fans, we lose sight of what Gregg can bring to the table because we just haven’t seen him as much. I say, lets give it time and let Lou do his thing. One thing is certain, our bullpen will be solid because of both of them. Our starters are solid. Our offense is solid. We are solid. I hope there are many fewer one run games and many more blowouts and shutouts.

Hello again, everybody. It's a bee-yooo-tiful day for baseball. --Harry Caray

by chi-townbleacherbum on Jan 26, 2009 9:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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