That depends on how well Garret Olson could assume Marshalls role, this is based on the assumption that either Marshall or Olson will be involved.

Peavy isnt an innings eater, so we’d need more cover in the bullpen-so in the short term Marshall would be more valuable, but Vitters has a lot of upside, and seeing as the Cubs have a great deal of leverage, they should try to swing the deal w/o Vitters.

Vitters hasnt proved anything yet, mostly b/c of that hand injury last year, but by all accounts he can be an above avg player….I just think it would be a shame if they gave up on him for superfluous parts (peavy)

The team has a limited window in which our current starters will be performing at or near their peaks, and Marshall would be a big part of that, so he is more valuable now, but Peavy isnt a necessary part of the WS equation-so theres no real “need” to give up our top prospect, who should hold more value long term than Marshall

So Id say Vitters

A good player today is better than a great player tomorrow. Marshall is useful to the Cubs in a number of roles, where as Vitters is useful to an A Ball team and as a bargaining chip.

A prospect may never pan out. May get injured before ever making it to the big leagues. So to me, a known player in the bigs is more valuable than one in the minors.

Vitters must not be traded

this is what losing ballclubs do—trade the future while they always chase the present.

then thats how we wind up with the subpar system we have today

In general, as I understand scoutspeak, “ceiling” refers to the best a player can be given the tools he has to play with. A ceiling doesn’t go up or down unless something unexpected happens. To put this another way – say you have three guys, Reed, Ronny, and Corey. Reed has a hammer, some nails, and some old scraps of wood. His “ceiling” would be the ability to build a dog house. That’s all he has the tools to do. Ronny has a whole garage of tools and equipment including a chainsaw and a forest. He could build a log cabin. Corey is a contractor whose tools include dumptrucks, backhoes, the works. He could build a resort.

Their ceilings haven’t changed if Corey rushes all his work and slaps together a ramshackle home that falls apart; while Ronny gets confused and can’t put anything together; and Reed works hard and builds the best doghouse you can find. Reed’s building may end up worth the most because he realized his potenital ceiling while the others did not.

To put this back in baseball terms, the Cubs had to choose between giving playing time last year to Ronny Cedeno or Ryan Theriot. Cedeno had the higher ceiling – he has power potential and better defense, but Theriot was able to play at a superior level (to the eyes of those making the decisions for the Cubs).

In Felix’ case, his ceiling is still high, but he hasn’t been able to steal bases at an effective rate and he lost the trust of his manager to hit ML pitching. That means that he seems very unlikely, in the eyes of many, to ever reach his ceiling. And yet Andy McPhail, still believes, which is why he traded for Felix.

but with our track record, we have had more busts than fulfilled promise.

He made 30’s-40’s with Baseball America. Might have been with Law, but I don’t know. Patterson was top 10 I believe

I do think the Cubs did not seek or teach plate discipline prior to Lou Piniella being here. That’s one of the best things he brought to the club. But players can succeed without great plate discipline – see Soriano, Alfonso. I think in terms of “hot Cub prospects” who were hitters recently, you had Hee Seop Choi, who had discipline and had some success and then finally wasn’t given more opportunities. You had Corey who had no discipline and was rushed and then asked to fill a job that required discipline – that was a recipe for disaster. Then you’ve got Dopirak and Harvey and maybe someone else can give you an explanation for why they busted, but I don’t think it was as simple as a lack of plate discipline.

I don’t have any easy answers for why we have not seen any Cub prospects develop into consistent ML stars.

it is because HR’s = $$$$$ too often, and walks dont get you paid

that no one in the NL throws the knuckleball

is really not accurate, or at least it’s deceiving. I’ve seen Vitters hit and he doesn’t swing at balls he can’t hit. The issue is that he can hit almost anything thrown up there—he’s got massive plate coverage. I compare him to Vlad Guerrero in that sense. Vlad has plate discipline—he just doesn’t walk much because unless he’s being intentionally walked, Guerrero is going to see at least one pitch per AB that he can hit, and he usually doesn’t miss.

Vitters is a similar type of hitter and he can hit the ball to all fields. The game I saw him at last season was 1) single to right 2) double to right center 3) single to left 4) intentional walk and 5) walk. Pretty good for five trips to the plate. The last walk was also with the winning run on third and less than two outs. First base was occupied, but they were clearly trying to get him to fish. He didn’t, the Hawks loaded up the bases and Ryan Keady won the game with the next AB.

I ought to know because I asked the question and I actually did ask him if a one year BELOW market deal had been discussed as well as any one year deal ( the 2nd part about what if any input Lou had did not get answered because Lou was out sick). What Hendry said was that no one year was discussed and that Wood had a good agent who was not looking for a one year deal. There are two possibilities re
arbitration A. The Cubs did not in fact want to pay him the 8 to 10 million he would have gotten especially considering that Hendry NEVER goes to arbitration and that would have put him in a tough position. B. Hendry may have done this as a combination safety net and going away “present”. Offering him arb would have made it harder for a team to sign him and since Hendry most likely did NOT want him and or Lou did not want him it was best to let him go , not strings attached.

I still chuckle at those who thought we should have offered arb to Howry.