2009 Cubs Community Projections

by Al on Jan 26, 2009 8:16 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 14 comments

Colin Wyers, who is one of the most knowledgeable posters we have at BCB regarding statistical analysis, has devised a system that will make it much easier to make projections for the 2009 Cubs. All you have to do is click on this link and input your projections for as many players as you want. For now, it's only for hitters; Colin promises a similar form for pitchers soon. Here are the simple instructions he emailed me:

Fields with an asterisk are required; fields without an asterisk are not.
Only project as many players as you are confident in.
You do not have to look at any computer-based projection systems before hand. We are deliberately seeking human input here.
Remember that these are median forecasts - we're projecting the most likely estimate here, where the truth is likely to hover around that.
These forecasts are for a player's time as a Cub only - if you anticipate a player being traded away before the season starts, just put a 0 into everything.

Thanks in advance for your projections. I'll post results as soon as there is a large enough sample to make them meaningful.

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this is...

pretty freaking cool! nice job

I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 26, 2009 9:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Very cool idea - thanks, Colin.

Anything that keeps me from having to do math is much appreciated. Seems a little early to start coming up with projections, but, hey, at least we can get the wheels turning.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 26, 2009 9:38 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

It's really not that early.

The first spring training game is less than a month away. (Feb. 25 vs. the Dodgers.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 26, 2009 9:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hooray!

"Truth does not do as much good in the world as the semblance of truth does evil," - Duc de La Rochefoucauld, Maxims, 64.

by Emelie on Jan 26, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers, eh?

I know it doesn’t count, but I hope the Cubs beat the crap out of them.

by jdb-44 on Jan 26, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, Colin's done a great job organizing Cubs' projections this year.

As an FYI, BtB will be compiling community projections across across all teams as a fans’ view of the 2009 seasons.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 26, 2009 10:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

I’m almost afraid to touch the thing, I’m afraid I’ll only show my ignorance

If the world didn't suck we would all fall off.

by carolinacub on Jan 26, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

No, you won't, because...

… your results will be part of a much larger group. That’s the point of doing this.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 26, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

TWSS

sorry – couldn’t resist…

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 26, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Only problem

I have is I will not be able to read Frustrated Fan’s projections.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Jan 26, 2009 11:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The results are entirely public.

On the left hand side, there should be two views for you to use to browse the results.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Jan 26, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I love sci fi, too.

Consistent. Championship. Tradition.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 27, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I did my part

I was very optimistic for several players, but mostly I tried to replicate their numbers—from memory—from last year.
(Forgive me in advance for having Soriano strike out 200 times. If anybody can do it, it’s him.)

One day I hope to come up with something worthy of this space.

by chilango2 on Jan 26, 2009 1:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Cwyers, this might be beyond your control

but the column sort function is working too literally – doesn’t seem to take into account a presumed leading zero for the single digit entries. For example, if you sort on home runs descending, the single digits (9,8,7,etc.) show up at the top of the list, before you got into any of the 40s, 30s, etc.

Not that big a deal now but could be troublesome as volume of data increases. Then again, may not be an issue at all as there seems to be means to a file export function.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 26, 2009 1:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs