Be patient on 2009 roster
I know Hendry's moves seem somewhat puzzling, but we really should wait and see how it all turns out. The Olson-Cedeno trade did free up a spot on the 40 man roster and added a decent ?! major league arm. It also allows Hendry to offer one of his young all ready major league pitchers for (you guessed it Peavy). I agree it's scary giving up someone like Vitters for a pitcher with alot of hard innings under his belt. BUt BUt BUT....if your goal is to WIN the World Series THIS YEAR, you absolutely make that trade!..Believe it or not the Cubs organization will survive without Sean Marshall.
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I have faith in Hendry
As odd as yesterday’s trade seems, you have to know that Jimbo has a vision for the team and a gameplan for executing it.
Most people around here thought he got a great return on Felix Pie, and maybe not so much on Olson & Cedeno. Regardless, if it all leads to the promised land, then we’ll look back on all these deals differently.
PS Heilman wants to be a starter? I think SD has a couple rotations spots open ;)
I have nothing funny or creative to write.
by Canadian Cubs Fan on Jan 29, 2009 7:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Peavy gone south?
How about this scenario? San Diego told the Cubs who they wanted for Peavy (e.g. Garrett Olson, Cedeno and a couple young pitchers). So the Cubs traded DeRosa, and Pie to get the missing pieces. Then San Diego, as they tend to do, increased their ask and told the Cubs they also wanted either Vitters or Marshall. So Hendry got pi—ed and closed the talks. To emphasize his point and to get rid of players he really didn’t want anyway, he traded two of the critical pieces. Any thoughts?
by CubbieFaninOhio on Jan 29, 2009 7:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think you're overanalyzing.
The deal is on the back burner for now. I think you may be right about the Padres’ demands — but those all occurred before Hendry made the DeRo and Pie deals.
Hendry has had his eye on Heilman for some time. Perhaps the acquisition of Olson hastened this deal.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 8:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First it is obvious this roster is not set and will not be until July 30th
What we know: For all of Vitters promise, it is just that and it will be realized in anyway until 2011 at the very best when he is 21 but the probability is that he wouldn’t appear until 2012 when he is 22—-on this club—-if he continues to progress.
We know that Cedeno & Pie for Heilman is basically one expendible servicable utility player and one failed promising prospect for a formerly proven effective MLB arm. A cheaper and more versatile Marquis.
So the sense is that Hendry is not as transparent as this community would like, so what. The deal if it takes place must have two sides and SD is in a box, they want to sell some more tickets and have a cash call due that is in the millions. Trading Peavy now would stop any if there is any now. So Peavy could be dealt now, later or in midseason but he will be dealt—-they can’t afford one player holding 30% or more of the payroll.
My guess is there are a few more deals left. To me Heilman actually makes Wuertz or Gaudin expendible. This coupled with Hill being expendible.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 29, 2009 9:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
but I think that the trade yesterday puts a lot more credibility to hendry when he says they haven’t talked to the padres about peavy since the winter meetings and that they are fine with their roster going into 09.
by cubsmania on Jan 29, 2009 9:06 AM CST reply actions 3 recs
Rec'd
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 9:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Olson was available and so was Pie
So they made a deal for a marginal promise for another one who was the same.
Hendry always wanted Heilman and Seattle got the marginal promise and serviceable utility player who plays the game without much mental control.
As for SD…..I think until the two want to dance, there is no music.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 29, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, Hendry is working in the insurance biz...
…and not counting on the acquisition of Jacque Peahvay.
Consistent. Championship. Tradition.
by dat cubfan daver on Jan 29, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing that would bug me if this is the last move....
We cleared a lot of payroll and got milton bradely…but there is still talk that we have room to aquire peavy if we want….
If we don’t get anyone else, we essentially turned kerry wood away when he could have been very valuable to this team in 09
by cubsmania on Jan 29, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It probably isn't the last move.
But it COULD be the last move until midseason.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
REC'd
Cubs could have $8-$10M reserves for someone like Varitek or a real SS or another starter
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 29, 2009 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or for someone in midseason.
Did anyone think Rich Harden was going to become a Cub at this time last year?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I think blue mike was saying Harden was coming our way. But than again my memory, what am i writing about?
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"
by wild bill on Jan 29, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, what he said was...
… that he WANTED Harden. But a year ago, I doubt anyone would have predicted the A’s would trade him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And would
“trade the entire farm” for him.
Everyone wanted Harden.
by N Oakley on Jan 29, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, but my point was...
… I don’t think anyone figured the A’s would deal him. The A’s were contending up to the point they traded him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, so prove
me wrong uh. Sour grapes on my part.
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"
by wild bill on Jan 29, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Kerry Wood wanted 3 years from the Cubs
It was the right objective move to say goodbye to Kerry Wood given his history of major arm problems. As Hendry quoted a few weeks ago, Wood was on the DL 36% of the time from 2005-2008. Also, Hendry intimated that it was strange for Wood to miss a full month with a blister issue in 2008. I’m not going to read anything into that given that I don’t have inside intelligence, but something smells on that point.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jake Peavy to the Cubs is dead
In my opinion the deal is dead for good, driven by two reasons.
A. San Diego’s insistence on Josh Vitters, and Jim Hendry’s unwillingness to include him in a deal.
B. Hendry was informed he can’t add a contract the magnitude of Jake Peavy’s.
Also, I think Hendry made the moves with Baltimore and Cleveland driven in part by acquiring pieces that Kevin Towers and San Diego would want in any Peavy deal. With the Peavy deal dead Hendry was left with two issues.
A. Acquiring a relatively cheap arm to compete for the 5th starter spot.
B. Finding a new home for Garrett Olson given the assumption that Towers thinks more of the pitcher than does Hendry.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 9:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
as I said before
there are $22 Million reasons not to get Peavy.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 29, 2009 9:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
actually that is $4M
Cubs would have the final year option to decline for a price—-it could be that Peavy and agent want the final year guarenteed and the Cubs said NOOOO
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
by Ivy Walls on Jan 29, 2009 10:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It could be 22E6
if Peavy wants the option exercised to waive his NTC.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jan 29, 2009 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Picking Up The Option
Is a ikely hurdle, which I was refering to as the $22M reasons not to get Peavy.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
by Cubbie-Tim on Jan 29, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Patience extends to 8/31
Some miss that.
Wildcard? How F-ed up the economy is that teams have to shed payroll. The biggest impact can come from near the Chesapeake Bay. No extension, traded at the deadline and the price (return players and new contract) has come way down.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Jan 29, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's in the best interest of San Diego to hang onto Jake Peavy
The team is in the process of being sold. Once the new owner takes control of the team then their salary budget will likely zoom back up to a normative level for that franchise. Say in the $75 million or so range.
The last thing I saw says the Padres are $4-5 million over the $40 million budget that has been handed down by current ownership. That’s within spitting distance. I’m sure there are a few things they can do to shave a million or two. Trading Jake Peavy in an extreme buyer’s market would be stupid. Hence I don’t blame them a bit for wanting the moon from the Cubs, starting with Josh Vitters.
Jim Hendry has done the right thing in walking away.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 10:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I really dont think Peavy is coming anymore
I have now also talked myself out of it being a good idea to trade Vitters. I really think that kid is going to be special. From all the scouting reports I have read he sounds kind of like David Wright with the bat. Not David Wright with the glove
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Jan 29, 2009 10:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
The only likely additions
are an aging back up infielder and an aging back up catcher both of which will be a step back from last year.
For me at this team’s success rests on Milton Bradley. Everyone has looked at the lists of deductions and additions and right now this is our only real upgrade coupled with significant downgrades and question marks.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Jan 29, 2009 11:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Bradley is the only significant improvement on the field this year. Frankly, I would have preferred to keep Woody and DeRosa.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 29, 2009 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Read this week's Crains Chicago Business re: Tom Ricketts and his debt financing plan
It looks like the debt service on the Cubs will run $40 million a year. That’s an expense the Tribune Company never had, and keep in mind their long-time public statement was that the ballclub made modest yearly profit.
The Crains ariticle is excellent. Unless the Ricketts family is willing to annually subsidize the operation of the Cubs the ability to maintain a payroll at this current lofty level will be challenging. And keep in mind Ricketts will need to find a way to pay for Wrigley Field renovations at some point.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 12:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Got a link?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 12:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That amount of debt service...
…sounds about right. Now, when the Trib says they made a modest profit, some of that was because the rights fees they charged WGN were probably far below market value so WGN could also benefit from the Cubs popularity and to help tax wise.
There is no question, the additional 40 mil per year is big and I’m guessing puts them around break even (give or take 10 mil or so). As Al has mentioned, Ricketts will need to aggressively pursue new revenue streams, but it won’t be easy to have those addtional revenue streams equal the 40 mil in debt payments anytime soon.
Bottom line, because the Trib had no debt, they were in the best position to push the Cub’s payroll up (and they did the last couple of years). In the next couple of years, I’m guess you see payroll held right were it is at, or possibly even being reduced a hair. There is nothing wrong with that, because the Cub’s payroll wouldn’t need to be 140 mil today if they had developed more of their own. For this reason, I am hoping new ownership immediately addresses plans to help improve the flow of talent to the big league club from their own system.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Jan 29, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm guessing...
… if they sell their 25% interest in CSN to the three other teams, and start their own TV network, they’ll make up that $40m per year quickly. The Yankees make a fortune from the YES network; there’s no reason the Cubs can’t do the same.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Very true.
With Tribco’s control of WGN and CSN, etc. I’ve always assumed that the Cubs did not receive full value generated by the television/radio rights. The ability to sell or market a national brand like the Cubs has great value and time will evidence how great that value becomes.
by N Oakley on Jan 29, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The point being...
….I think the Ricketts will have a definite limit in how big they want the payroll. It’s too late for them to have much say in the process for 2009 since, after all, they don’t own the team yet and the General Manager was manuevering based on other assumptions.
But, I DO think that Tom Ricketts has probably conveyed that he doesn’t have appetite for adding anything more substantial to the current payroll. This will be an interesting public relations dance to see unfold , especially if Ricketts intends to have the payroll eventually go down to a number like $110 or $120 million. Which is altogether possible.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt the payroll will go down.
Maybe sideways until they can get new revenue streams. The general state of the economy will have something to do with it, too. Remember, there are already players who have had to, or will have to, settle for less-than-market rate contracts for 2009. This may be the case for the next couple of years.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Lets face it, the Cub payroll is pretty high right now. Certainly higher than a lot of us would ever have thought. There are a lot of fat contracts on the books, driven in part by the strategic focus to win but also because of the continuing fundamental inability of the Cub farm system to produce. Case in point is our outfield situation. For four consecutive seasons the Cubs have made expensive forays into free agency (Jacque Jones, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke, Milton Bradley) driven in substantial part by the failings of people like Corey Patterson and Felix Pie.
This can’t keep going this way. Look at the Red Sox for example. They have a lot of big contracts on the books, but the overall payroll equation is balanced because they continue to pump out quality talent from their farm system to plug and play.
I feel a little bit dirty with a payroll north of $130 million. It’s high. Too high. For as funny at sounds.
by BLou on Jan 29, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with your comments on the farm system.
I know you’re not a fan of Tim Wilken, but I think we are headed in the right direction with him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al Yellon on Jan 29, 2009 7:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Blue Mike,
I rarely agree with you, but I think you are absolutely correct about the payroll situation. Peavy is a luxury we can’t afford, Bradley is a luxury we can’t afford, and we’ve already committed $116M to 10 players for 2010.
If the Cubs don’t win the World Series this year….
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Jan 30, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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