Can Milton Replace Jim Edmonds Production?
by Henrik Holger on Jan 29, 2009 12:37 PM CST
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PrintI think Cub fans, me included, take for granted what Jim Edmonds gave us last year. 19HRs, 49 RBIs, 369/568 OBP and SLG in a little over half a season. I like Milton Bradley and think he will be a good addition. When thinking about his acquisition, however, and analyzing where the team has improved (or not), I find myself thinking "he will add the left-handed pop we were missing last season," completely ignoring Edmonds. After looking at Edmonds's numbers, I begin to think at best Milton can maintain his end of the status quo outfield production we had with Edmonds. Not that that is a bad thing. I'm not sure Edmonds can replicate last year so I would rather have Milton for the coming year if given unlimited money and the choice of one or the other.
Do you think Milton Bradley can equal Edmonds's production over (hopefully) a longer period? 130 games, 25HR, 365/535 would be a good year for Bradley in my opinion. Given that, the only likely offensive improvement would be Fukudome, perhaps a more healthy Soriano.
Would you rather have Bradley - Fontenot/Miles, or Edmonds - DeRosa with a few extra coins in the Cubs pocket?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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In a word...
yes.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 12:40 PM CST reply actions
that was 4 words.
and some little dot thingies…
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 29, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions
it's an ellipse Ben
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
Well, for what it's worth...
…the CHONE projection for Milton Bradley is, in 114 games, .298/.407/.520 (.927 OPS!!!). That’s with 21 home runs, 22 doubles and 1 triple, and 66 RBI.
Ever the optimist, I’m a little more bullish on Bradley’s playing time. I think he’ll play more like 130 to 135 games, but still put up numbers close to those. I’d go much higher on the RBI, though, and look for close to 30 home runs.
So, to answer your question, yes, Bradley is fully capable of replacing and improving upon Jim Edmonds producton. And I’ll take Bradley and Miles/Fontenot combo – it’s the left side of the infield I’m more worried about.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
I hope hes worth more than 66 RBI
Though I guess that depends on where he hits
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Yeah, that seemed awfully low...
…especially given that he was signed to be a middle-of-the-order guy.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
and that projection
is BELOW Edmond’s production offensively
which means the kicker for Bradley vs. Edmonds magical season is going to be games played.
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions
That's a good point.
On the bright side, Edmonds played in only 85 games for the Cubs last year. At the risk of tempting the Gods, I have to believe Bradley can beat that.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
That's not a fair comparison
Edmonds 2008 numbers were put up almost exclusively against right-handers. If he had been more exposed, you’d have seen those numbers drop.
and you'd see the cute little half shirt he likes to wear.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
does MB wear 1/2 shirts?
I hope so…
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 29, 2009 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
I will not rest until I know the answer.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
or until you Photoshop it
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 29, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions
does that matter though?
the production is the production when evaluating the two
if you want to comment on Bradley’s likelihood of topping 250 AB’s, that’s the point to attack because its a very reasonable argument
but how the production came doesn’t matter much, it was there
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
Well, yes
If you’re comparing Edmonds vs Bradley then it absolutely matters how those at bats came to be. How can you not see this? Seriously? You’re comparing 2 completely different things – essentially taking one player’s splits and comparing them to another player’s full season and saying, “See they’re the same!”.
But even with that huge advantage, Bradley’s OPS+ was still 30 points higher than Edmonds’.
if you want to comment on Bradley’s likelihood of topping 250 AB’s, that’s the point to attack because its a very reasonable argument
Have you actually looked at Bradley’s career numbers? He’s had fewer than 250AB in a season exactly once since 2002.
So, no, it wouldn’t be a very reasonable argument at all actually.
that would be the point
and you just attacked it correctly
but 250 AB’s with a .937 OPS is 250 AB’s with a .937 OPS no matter how they came
if Bradley has say 350 AB’s with a .920 OPS that IS worth more than Edmonds last year
but if he has just 250 AB’s with a .920 OPS (because of injury) then he would not be worth as much as Edmonds
it doesn’t matter HOW the AB’s come it matters HOW MANY are registered
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
Compare the lineup spots
When comparing Bradley’s totals to Edmonds’ splits, don’t we need to consider that Edmonds’ platoon partner was Reed Johnson? So compare Bradley vs. Edmonds’/Johnson’s numbers to see who will produce more given the same number of PA’s. I take Bradley in a landslide even with the likely injury issues.
"Baseball is like Church. Many Attend; Few Understand." - Leo Durocher
right...
but that’s assuming a full season worth of AB’s when considering the platoon
if Bradley gives a full season it IS likely he’d outproduce what we had there last year
but if he only gives say 250 AB’s then he’s going to have a tough time out-producing just Edmonds 250 ABs (which was the original question)
if Bradley gets to 300-350 AB’s i think there is little doubt Bradley outperforms Edmonds, the question is can he get there
by DartmouthCubsFan on Feb 1, 2009 12:20 AM CST up reply actions
I think
this the way Lou gets the most out of his players. Fontenout falls under this as well. Lou does a wonderful job of not exposing his players to the wrong environment. And no, I don’t mean he keeps them out of the bars.
"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"
since when did Chone Figgins do baseball projections?
Fukudometer: Created 3/31/08 Wrigley Debut 4/5/08 WGN and Japan TV Debut 4/6/08 Sun Times Debut: 4/20/08 Coffee Table Debut: 7/17/08 (http://www.wearecubsfans.com)
He's fast on the basepaths...
…but faster with a calculator.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Absolutely.
Bradley has many other things gong for him too. Change of scenery which seemed to help him in TX. The desire to prove naysayers wrong about his health. And the already strong output he has in his track record.
Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?
Perhaps Bradley should get a "change of scenery" every year...
since it works so well for him.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 1:02 PM CST up reply actions
essentially ...
he has had a change of scenery every year.
Bradley
Flat said he wants to be here, and he wants to win. Sure all say that, but he sounded a little more legit than some others have. Anyone willingto pass up other oprions while waiting a month or two for the GM to clear the way to sign him, deserves all our respect and backing until proven otherwise.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
The question is
whether Bradley 2009 will be better than Edmonds 2009. I think the Cubs caught some good luck with Edmonds last season. I doubt he would match that again for a complete 2009 season.
its not
if you’re trying to evaluate whether we’ll IMPROVE over last years team
it IS if you’re trying to evaluate who was the right choice to play this season
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
beat me to it
There’s no way Edmonds (who is knocking on 40) would have repeated his 2008 numbers.
Has edmonds signed anywhere?
I’d still rather have him than gathright
"If I were playing third base and my mother were rounding third with the run that was going to beat us, I'd trip her. Oh, I'd pick her up and brush her off and say, 'Sorry, Mom,' but nobody beats me." ~ Leo Durocher
You'd rather have him than Gathright for what
As a pinch runner / late-inning defensive replacement? Because Gathright will be orders of magnitude better at both of those things.
No, Edmonds remains unsigned.
But Edmonds and Gathright really aren’t comparable. Edmonds would presumably be re-signed as half of a centerfield platoon (though I’m wondering whether he’d accept as a role as a lefty bat off the bench). Joey Gathright is a fifth outfielder/pinch runner.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Gathright is Pie sans the BLou hatred.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
Pretty much.
And, apparently, sans the Lou P. hatred as well. Although I guess we’ll see what we see.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
Also sans the ability to hit and the potential
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 29, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
sans power
Pie had a lot more pop than Gathright even in their major league careers
Pie’s career EXBH Rate = 6.9%
Gathright’s = 3.3%
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
but
he can out jump Pie
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
Jump Pie?
I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com
by digitalbenjamin on Jan 29, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions
Worse than that...
Gathright is Pie minus the the hatred minus ANY threat of power and minus any potential to improve.
For the purposes of this team, assuming he’s only a defensive replacement and pinch runner, that’s fine. In terms of long-term potential, he’s clearly a downgrade from Pie.
what do you expect
from a guy who was #25 on the ROYALS roster last season
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
That's exactly what you will get.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 29, 2009 2:46 PM CST up reply actions
As I said Before
Edmonds 2008 = Gary Gaetti 1998
Anyone who remembers Gaetti 1999 will tell you that he was a one and done with us. Edmonds is the same.
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
There's no guarantee that would be true.
That said, Bradley is definitely better than Edmonds for 2009.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I do agree
that it is not a guarantee, but which is more likely, Edmonds improves on last season, or declines from last seasons numbers?
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
There's a difference...
between declining from last season’s numbers (which were amazing) and falling off the face of the earth like Gaetti.
I don’t think anyone reasonably expects Edmonds to reproduce his .900+ OPS last year. But he may still be a functional platoon player, which was not the case with Gaetti.
If healthy, absolutely, yes.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Ah, the "if" word...
Yes, if Bradley stays health for 120+ games, it’s very possible that he at least approaches the production Edmonds gave us last year. I’m not sure he’d top it (Edmonds DID hit nearly 20 HR and OPSed over .930, something Bradley hasn’t done as an everyday position player before), but he could certainly be a .900+ OPS guy.
But the guy still needs to prove he can actually play 120+ games in the field.
He's already proven that!
Oh wait, you meant all in one season.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
Funny, but he's another year removed from serious knee surgery,
which I understood was the reason they DH’d him much of the year.
If he’s as focused as he said on his offseason work, he should be much better this year.
Not sure why you're referencing recovery from last year...
as though that’s the only injury concern with Bradley. In his entire career he’s played 100+ games in the field once.
Sure, he’s probably recovered from the ACL injury that limited him last year. But everything in his career history suggests he’s going to break down again this year, likely for significant time.
This guy was brittle when he was young and spry. He’s in his 30s now, and players usually don’t get healthier with age.
good question
and one that i think gets overlooked
i don’t think we’ll be as good in the regular season next year as we were this past year. The monstrous seasons we had from role players (Edmonds, Fontenot, Dempster, etc) are likely unrepeatable
now, the good news is the rest of the division seemingly got worse as well and well… the regular season wasn’t really our problem anyway
so hopefully we’re still good enough to win the division and get hot at the right time
but in my opinion we’ve taken a step back from last year and this is the type of question that i think highlights how tough it will be to repeat how dominant we were in the regular season last year
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 1:24 PM CST reply actions
Except that none of the division competitors seems to have improved, either.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
never been worried about the division.
It’s the NLDS and NLCS I’d like to put behind us…
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 29, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
i said that
“now, the good news is the rest of the division seemingly got worse as well”
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:02 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry... missed that line in your post.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
It's a much better team this year
We’ve added Bradley, get a full season of Harden, crafted a much deeper bullpen and a much better bench, cut Fukudome’s role down to a platoon player, and gotten rid of Jason Marquis.
Even with some regression it’s still a better team.
full season of Harden?
that’s a bold assumption
let’s do it this way, how about position by position do you think we’ll get better production or worse production this year:
C – .284/.353/.482
1B- .296/.365/.480
2B- .300/.378/.458
3B- .283/.372/.519
SS- .303/.379/.364
LF- .282/.348/.508
CF- .290/.374/.484
RF- .250/.350/.381
those are some lofty numbers to BEAT from next year offensively, i’d say it’s pretty unlikely in a number of those spots to BEAT what we got last year
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?team=CHC&year=2008
how about the starting pitching:
- 206 2/3 IP, 2.96 ERA,
- 204 2/3 IP, 4.09 ERA
- 188 2/3 IP, 3.91 ERA
- 167 IP, 4.53 ERA
- 129 2/3 IP, 2.98 ERA (Harden + Gallagher)
combined:
Starting Pitching: 955 IP, 3.75 ERA
Relief Pitching: 495 2/3 IP, 4.10 ERA
Those are some lofty numbers to IMPROVE upon
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions
YES WE CAN!
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
and here i thought...
the campaigning was over
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:35 PM CST up reply actions
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
The good news is that we don't HAVE to improve upon them...
We just have to win our division (which we did handily last year and should have an easier time doing this year thanks to other teams getting worse). Then, in the playoffs, we just have to have better success.
Remember – the regular season numbers look nothing like what we did in the postseason. We had lots of talented players who didn’t come close to producing the way they did in the regular season.
totally agree
and that’s what i posted earlier
the poster above suggested it was a much better team this year, which is what i was commenting against
i don’t think we have a better team this year than last year but that doesn’t mean a worse team won’t have more success in the postseason
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2009 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed...
I don’t think it’s reasonable to say that this team should be expected to outproduce last year’s team’s production. And if certain things play out (Piniella goes with Miles over Fontenot, regression from Dempster and Theriot, etc), this team could be much less productive than last year’s team.
But, I think we’re still the favorite to win the division, and if we get there I think we have a very reasonable shot to make the World Series.
Tenfold!!!!!!!
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
So Bradley is going to hit 190 HR this year?
If so, that’s got to be some kind of record.
and drive in
179 runs…..which will baffle baseball stats gurus for a lifetime
"I like coconuts, you can break them open and they smell like ladies lying in the sun" Widespread Panic
This anomaly will be due to all the technical balks he's going to incur.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 29, 2009 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
On steroids with a corked bat, maybe
If you had to choose just one characteristic that would get you through life, choose a sense of humor.
I dunno, just ask him!
Erm, well if we are going to call Milton Bradley nicknames, mine is Fischer Price: yes, you heard it here first..
what Dome does
Will be a big deciding factor in how we set the lineup. We know what most of our hitters can do or are capable of but Dome.
1)Can he hit for descent power consistently and split 2 power hitting righties?
2)Will he be a high obp guy that can hit in the #2 spot?
3)Will he give us just what he gave us at the end of the year and be a #8 hitter?
4)Will he even be good enough to be in the lineup?
5)Can he prove to hit enough not be a platoon player and play everyday?
I don’t know what Lou has planned but he would seemingly IMO split the lefties and righties up someway. how he does it is anyone’s guess.
I guess all of this is still premature with offseason moves still being bandied about but what kinda hitter Dome and his lefthanded bat turn out to be seems to change a whole lot of things.
Pure speculation as of right now if Sori stays in the leadoff spot:
Sori
Fontenot
Lee
Bradley
Ramirez
Dome
Soto
Theriot
I dont care who the new owner is as long as he/she/them come equipped with a Jake Peavy and a Joe Beimel!!!
My hope is for No. 2.
And I agree that that’s the lineup we’ll likely see, though Soto may bat ahead of Dome.
We are a fever ... we are a fever ... we ain't born typical.
personally
i’d like to see Lee hit #2 and have Bradley and Ramirez hit 3 and 4 with Soto 5
i hope Fukudome produces like a good #2 hitter, but i hope he’s hitting 6 or 7 and he and theriot at the bottom of the order are performing as table setters for the top of the lineup
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 30, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
something like
1. Soriano
2. Lee
3. Bradley
4. Ramirez
5. Soto
6. Fontenot
7. Fukudome
8. Theriot
- this would get the best hitters in your lineup more AB’s in general, which is my biggest issue with any lineup suggestion with Ramirez hitting 5… or Soto hitting 7
- this would provide the R-L-R in the middle of the lineup the brass wants
- this would keep Soriano in the leadoff spot which is likely to happen
-this would keep the OBP guys in front of the power guys at both ends of the lineup, at the top Lee and Bradley would be ahead of Aramis and Soto, while Fukudome and Theriot would be ahead of Soriano (with the pitcher in between of course…)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 30, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
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