Questions: Jones, Miles, Gregg
by nickler on Jan 3, 2009 11:57 AM CST
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PrintHello;
Just a few questions.
1. Andruw Jones-- It says here that the Dodgers somehow got Jones to agree to a markedly reduced salary:
How is this possible? I mean, can we just ask Soriano: "Hey, do you mind taking less money or leaving the Cubs"? I thought you can't do this unless in the NFL. If this is possible, why doesn't everyone start doing this to underperformers????
2. Aaron Miles is someone everyone seems really down on. Why is this? He seems to have an outstanding OBP which with our power hitters in the lineup is what we need much more of. He seems fine defensively. He is younger than DeRosa. Why did the Cardinals let their starting 2B go like that?
People were not that happy with the DeRosa signing when Hendry put him on board and he did great...
3. Is Gregg really that bad of a pickup? We let Howry and Eyre go, and Hendry seemed to want to let Wood go so he could cash in on what will likely be his last long term big money deal. I don't think there would be any way the Cubs could match what the Indians offered.
So given this, Gregg seems to have the same ERA with a WHIP equal to Francisco Rodriguez... with Marmol as the closer now, didn't we need someone like this anyway? With Wood destined to leave and Howry going, I thought it was a good move. Yet most of you think it was terrible.
Thanks again for your wisdom.
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The money
is DEFERRED, not cut.
That means he will get paid later.
The worst beer I had was pretty good.
My thoughts...
1. Jones isn’t necessarily getting less money. It’s just getting deferred so that less of it is paid in 2009. Of course, in real 2009 dollars, that’d mean less money. But that’s another debate.
2. People are down on Miles because he hasn’t been a very good hitter in his career. He’s not really a good OBP guy. Miles had a good OBP in 2008, but for his career he’s a sub-.330 OBP guy. Replacing a guy who was above .370 in OBP the last two years, that’s a step backward. Not to mention the power decline. And Miles doesn’t take walks. So unless he is hitting a ton of singles like last year, Miles is a way below average hitter.
3. Gregg is just a “bleh” acquisition. Not terrible, just not great. The comparison to Rodriguez is inapt, because Rodriguez had the worst year (peripherally speaking) of his career and was still a bit better than Gregg. Rodriguez strikes out a lot more guys and has generally had a much better WHIP (and always a much better ERA). For comparison, Gregg really isn’t that much better than Michael Wuertz.
The real problem with the Gregg deal was that he was likely to not be offered arbitration by the Marlins and we traded a high-ceiling pitching prospect. Some even suggested we might get similar production from Ceda next year (though I think this is a stretch). Regardless, we could probably have waited until he was not offered by the Marlins and gotten him for free, and had Ceda to trade elsewhere.
Yeah, my problem with Gregg has nothing to do with his performance,
and everything to do with what we gave up for him. We’ll see though.
sort of agree
But too many people are assuming that DeRosa will repeat his 2008 performance. It’s more likely that he’ll hit like he did in 2007 — cutting the difference between him and Miles. Also, Miles ups his value because he can also play short. Whether you think DeRosa could play short as well as Theriot (I don’t), we know that Lou didn’t see DeRosa as more than an emergency option at shortstop. And, of course, Miles hits left handed.
The Miles signing is also getting criticism because Miles is replacing a very popular player. That’s part of the reason the Gregg trade is drawing criticism — Gregg (essentially) replaced the team’s most popular player in Kerry Wood.
Both situations are also similar because no one is particularly happy with the price tags. Ceda was a coveted prospect, and the guys we got from Cleveland aren’t that coveted. But prospects are prospects, after all. Some turn out to be Bobby Hill. Some turn out to be Ricky Nolasco.
Final point: We should probably wait to judge Hendry by the totality of his work this offseason. If trading DeRosa and Marquis and not signing Wood, Blanco, Ward, Howry, etc. mean we add Gregg, Miles, Bradley AND one other impact player (Peavy, Roberts, etc.), I don’t think we’ll have much to complain about.
Even if DeRosa declines (and I expect him to do so)...
the difference is still likely to be 100 OPS points. The only thing Miles brings is a bad LH bat and the ability to sort of play SS (and a savings of a few million $).
The thing about Ceda isn’t that he’s destined for greatness. It’s that his trade value seemed to be higher than that of a guy who could have essentially been had for NOTHING.
I agree about your last point. It’s not a complete picture. However, if Bradley is the end of the line, it’s not a good sequence of trades in my opinion.
Gregg could have been had for nothing
I’ve heard that a lot, but I don’t buy it. Hendry isn’t stupid, and even if he were, I think he would have learned his lesson from Juan Pierre.
DeRosa is certainly a better player than Aaron Miles. But there was talk after the winter meetings — when a bunch of teams tried to trade for DeRo — that he would have a big pay day after 2009. It’s possible Hendry dealt him knowing that there was no way the Cubs could afford him in 2010. That said, it sure seems like they could have gotten more for him.
As for Hendry making more moves, we know that Pie and Cedeno will probably be traded. We know that San Diego needs a shortstop, outfield help and pitching. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hendry made the DeRosa deal with the goal of using the three young arms with Pie and Cedeno to get Peavy — without giving up Vitters or Marshall.
That's not what it is for me.
I think Gregg is a downgrade, because of all the walks he issued.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
actually, if you think about it, Gregg didn't replace Kerry
In all likelihood, Marmol is replacing Kerry as closer, so the reality is Gregg is replacing Marmol as setup. Those are some tough shoes to fill.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
that's even
worse.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 5, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
Miles doesn't replace Derosa. Fontenot replaces Derosa.
Miles replaces Fontenot, and maybe Cedeno. The dropoff from Derosa to Fontenot is much less than the dropoff to Miles
by philadelphiacub on Jan 3, 2009 2:23 PM CST up reply actions
Cubs have Gathright to replace Johnson in CF, roster plans not completed
I really think the Cubs will continue to be active and Bradley is merely a Plan B situation. Roberts is active and the Orioles are playing the Cubs for more with their using the ChiSox who are willing to trade a good pitching prospect. Roberts would replace DeRosa, Miles would replace Cedeno, Fukudome replacing Edmonds, Gathright is replacing Johnson’s role—-Cubs add.
Now Marmol is replacing Wood’s role (net gain), Gregg is replacing Marmol’s role—-push, Guzman [healthy?] replaces Howry (open question, better stuff unproven), Cotts, Samardz, Vizcaino is the rubber arm and then Gaudin or Marshall with the other going to the 5th starter unless Llih makes an appearance like in ’07.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
How is Gathright replacing Johnson's role...
When Johnson is still in his role? I certainly can’t see them going with Johnson in an everyday role. It seems to me that Gathright is replacing Pie’s role (pinch runner late-inning sub). Johnson is still the RH portion of any OF platoon (CF or RF).
Until I see something to suggest that Bradley isn’t the primary target, I’m going to assume that Bradley is the plan in RF, with Johnson the RH option in RF or CF, Gathright as the defensive sub, and a three-way semi-platoon of Theriot, Fontenot, and Miles at 2B.
If Gathright gets more than 125-150 AB...
… we are in trouble.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
actually quite correct
Gathright appears to be simply a situational player that Pie was, more pinch running, defense substitution, late game pinch hitting, double header.
At $900K he is not a big risk either and if replaced by a league minimum on the 25-man roster.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Miles and Fontenot replace DeRosa, in different ways...
Miles/Fontenot replace DeRosa at 2B in a platoon combination. Miles replaces the utility aspect of DeRosa. The Cubs got Miles to replace DeRosa (and probably Cedeno as well) as the backup infielders for SS and 3B, as well as to fill in the RH portion of the Fontenot/Miles platoon at 2B.
I think Cedeno goes
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."
Agree, and with Miles his OBP is really from his BA, it's only about 40 higher.
To me that’s a guy who is much more likely to have a below .330 OBP in 2009 as his BA regresses.
Wow, what happened to Jones, how did he let himself go so much…the guys went from All-Star to the bottom of the bin. At least he’s being flexible to try and make something work, but yikes, what a downfall.
It benefits Jones and the Dodgers- so why not?
Jones gets the $s he signed for- eventually and becomes more attractive to other teams where he may get a chance to resurrect his carreer. The Dodgers get immediate payroll relief and the ability to trade/ release Jones to create a spot for what they believe to be a better bet to help them (or to pay down the debt on the two beach front homes Mrs. McCourt just bought.)
She’s the one who said it may be unseemly to pay these high contract dollars in this economy and wondered if the Dodger fans would rather have a Manny Ramirez type player or the continued support for their charity that builds baseball fields for kids all across California.
Priceless. Yeah the players are greedy and these poor owners are at their mercy, forced to raise ticket prices to pay these evil players. I love it! [/ end rant]
"Baseball is like church- many attend, few understand." ~ Leo Durocher
I think the Dodgers
threat to release Andruw Jones probably had a little more credibility than if the Cubs made the same threat to Sori.
These guys’ numbers are no where close to similar.
"This is an environment of welcoming, and you should just get the hell outta here." --Michael Scott
Kevin Gregg will be solid in 2009
Of all the things I’m worried about, Kevin Gregg isn’t one of them. I think he will come in here and thrive as a rubber-arm set-up man to Carlos Marmol. God forbid Marmol is not up to the task of closing or gets hurt then we have Gregg ready to take the 9th inning reins.
Kerry Wood’s right arm is way too risky to invest the kind of dollars Cleveland did. We will look back on this series of events and be grateful that we once again were not guilty of putting so many eggs in the Kerry Wood basket only to get burned. I love Wood as much as the next guy, but the right baseball move by the Cubs was made.
A rubber-arm...
… he’ll need one, given all the walks he issues.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
With a WHIP of 1.28?
I thought that was pretty good… !
Which leads me to ask… what is considered a GOOD WHIP?
Consider this.
Kerry Wood’s WHIP was 1.09.
Carlos Marmol’s WHIP was 0.93.
Now how does 1.28 look?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well not really now that you mention it
That means the difference between Wood and Gregg is one baserunner every 5 innings.
You've already passed judgment on Kevin Gregg
I’m not sure the ax you have to grind with Gregg. Let him come in here and see what he does. Jim Hendry made the right OBJECTIVE decision regarding Wood, and Gregg is a perfectly fine replacement for Marmol in the setup role.
He is?
With all those walks? How do you justify that opinion?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Well
A one year investment in Kevin Gregg that allows Carlos Marmol to assume closer chores is better than a ridiculous $20 million investment in Kerry Wood and his dubious right arm.
Kevin Gregg is here to be setup man at a fair market value contract for 2009. That’s the risk equation. Something far less than the risk equation implied by Kerry Wood being asked to close and being paid $20 million to do so over two years. I believe Gregg will be up to the task. But if by chance he is not then the worst possible case is we all grumble about him in similar fashion to Bob Howry, Version 2008. There ARE other options at set-up man IF Gregg can’t get the job done. Luis Vizcaino, Chad Gaudin, perhaps Jeff Spellcheck and maybe even a darkhorse candidate like Angel Guzman.
The problem isn't Gregg as a setup man...
The problem is that Marmol will no longer pitch in those high-leverage situations in the 6th and 7th, bailing us out of jams and getting us to the end of the game with the lead.
I’m fine with letting Wood go. As you said, he was too expensive for an overvalued role. My problem is that we’re now reducing the value (in terms of wins/losses, not market value) of Marmol by moving him to closer.
Marmol's workload was too heavy in 2008
It would be ill advised to ask him to carry the extreme heavy workload he did in 2008 all over again. Moving him to the closer role has the added benefit of eliminating the temptation of “over-using” him in a set-up role. I don’t fault Piniella for how he used Marmol in 2008. Fact is the rest of our bullpen outside of Wood and Marmol was dubious for a long stretch of the season. But that said, I’m happy Marmol will be “confined” to 9th inning duties.
Reduces two things...
1. The temptation to overuse Marmol; and
2. The quality of our bullpen and our probability of winning close games.
People tend to overlook how important it was to have an unhittable pitcher like Marmol bail the team out of jams in the 6th and 7th innings. Without him, we’re going to lose a lot of leads long before we’d get to the 9th.
BINGO!
We were much better off with Marmol setting up Wood, than with Gregg setting up Marmol.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Either way, he will probably see a few less
innings this year. Personally, I would prefer to not have the types of situations where he had to bail us out. With Howry gone, that’s a possibility. I just pray that Gregg doesn’t take the Howry role as a literal thing and pitch like he did last season.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 5, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
He bailed out the starters...
not Howry. Unless you’re merely referring to having to pitch in more games because Howry stunk.
But the in-game bailouts were generally situations where the starter gave up some baserunners in a close game, and Marmol came in to put out the fire.
I was speaking in general terms. I realize he bailed
out the starters a lot. I was just doing some Howry-bashing.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Jan 5, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
Gregg is no replacement for Marmol's role last year...
Marmol was the fireman. Gregg is no fireman. He’s just a slightly better option than Michael Wuertz.
In fact, I’d rather see Gregg close and Marmol stay in the role he had last year. That way, Marmol would get more innings and he’d pitch in more important innings.
Of course, I suspect that that won’t happen. I hope I’m wrong though.
It might start happening...
… when Gregg starts blowing saves in the 7th or 8th inning.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
So your solution is to overwork once again a gifted arm in Carlos Marmol???
Read what I said a few posts above. The nice thing about moving Marmol into the closer role is that there will be natural cap on how much work he gets. Piniella and Rothschild were forced to pitch Marmol too much in his set-up role last season. All things being equal, I’d rather fry the arm of Kevin Gregg than do same to a very gifted young talent in Carlos Marmol. Key will be for Gregg to get help in the set-up role in 2009. Certainly a lot more help than Marmol got from Bob Howry and company in 2008.
He's gonna need that help...
… with all the walks he issues. Hope Wuertz or Shark like to come in with the bases loaded.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
what's the point of having
“the gifted arm in Carlos Marmol” if you don’t USE it properly?
I’d keep Marmol as the fireman as well. He’s very good in that role, and it’s arguably more important than closer.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Jan 5, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
That's all well and good
But it is standard practice across the game that your most talented and explosive arm is your closer. We all knew it was only a matter of time before Carlos Marmol became closer of this ballclub. In same way that Brad Lidge bid his time in a set-up role in Houston behind Billy Wagner. And Mariano Rivera served as set-up man to closer John Wetteland in New York for a couple of seasons. And K-Rod was the primary caddy to closer Troy Percival for the Angels in 2002.
Carlos Marmol has become closer for very good reason. His former set-up role will doubtful be filled in such fine fashion. But that said I have confidence in Kevin Gregg and the various other cast of characters we have vying for jobs in the pen.
Just because it is common practice...
doesn’t make it the right decision.
Moving Marmol to closer, while the “logical” move according to common baseball practice, actually makes our bullpen worse than leaving him in his old role.
But, c’est la vie.
I have confidence that Gregg will do better than Howry did last year. I have confidence that Marmol will be a fine closer. But I do not have confidence that the pen will be as good as it was last year. At least it will be less expensive though.
As far as Jones goes...
MLBPA grants deferrals if it helps the player out, and if the player doesnt have to give any money back. In this case Jones can either be moved more easily or cut and free to sign somewhere else. Here’s the full story from ESPN.com.
Right.
Since it’s deferred with interest- Jones ends up with more $s than he signed for.
"Baseball is like church- many attend, few understand." ~ Leo Durocher
?????
Then how does this help the Dodgers???
In a few years, they’ll be screwed with having to play a player who is not even on the team? Does this make any sense????
It’s like deferring payment on your car, with interest, so you can drive it around now so you can buy something else expensive, right (in this case, Manny Ramirez). Well, in a few years, you’ll be paying for both Manny AND Jones and still have the same problem with affording the contracts. How does this make sense?
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