What should I write about?

by cwyers on Oct 1, 2009 9:37 PM CDT

Many of the old-timers around here may recognize me; my name is Colin Wyers and I've written for the Cubs blog Goatriders of the Apocalypse in the past (and I gather they've survived just fine since I've left) and I'm currently a contributor to the Hardball Times. I'm - ahem - rather stats-oriented in my work.

For the third year running, Al has asked me to contribute an article to the Cubs annual he edits. I'll confess - I'm rather blocked as to what I should be writing about this year.

So I'm curious - what would y'all like to see an article about? Post a comment and let me know. I'm not promising to use the most popular idea (I have to figure out how to fit something into my word budget, among other concerns) but I'm open to a lot of idea. Thanks in advance!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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One thought

Something about MLEs and park effects for the Cubs minor league affiliates. Explain why some touted prospects in the past shouldn’t have been expected to work out, and give reasonable projections for some current minor leaguers.

On the other hand, if Al is having Josh or someone write specifically about prospects, just ignore this idea.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Oct 1, 2009 9:48 PM CDT reply actions

Bullpen

How many losses they blown. How many leads they’ve held. How ours compares to others around the NL and what we can do to upgrade. Maybe how some of this year’s FA’s would fit in and what the overall outcome of they would do together.

I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT

by cubsluver22 on Oct 1, 2009 9:48 PM CDT reply actions

Its been a while cwyers

Milton Bradley, definitely write about him, not enough has been written on Milton Bradley

In all seriousness, perhaps you can write about what new ownership does for a team’s performance? Taking a look at teams that have transferred ownership and how those teams have done in subsequent years following the ownership change.

Just a thought.

"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko

by DTJchris on Oct 1, 2009 9:55 PM CDT reply actions

I like this idea.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 1, 2009 11:15 PM CDT up reply actions

good idea

You see, wire telegraph is a kind of a very, very long cat. You pull his tail in New York and his head is meowing in Los Angeles. Do you understand this? And radio operates exactly the same way: you send signals here, they receive them there. The only difference is that there is no cat. - Albert Einstein

by eths on Oct 2, 2009 3:30 AM CDT up reply actions

Bleacher Expansion:

It’s been what, 4 years now with the expanded bleacher section? That’s probably a decent sample size of data.

First from a business perspective: a little ROI cost/benefit analysis, when do/did they break even, what it has meant to the Cubs bottom line and (in theory) team payroll, incremental revenue projections moving forward, etc.

Then from a performance perspective: what – if any – effect it has had on the on-the-field numbers, both good and bad. Probably would have to factor weather into that somehow – especially since this year appears to have been somewhat of a meteorological outlier.

And from a ballhawk perspective, I’d be happy to provide you with some anecdotal quotes which Maple Street would have to bleep out… ;-) But seriously, I could give you some numbers on the drop-off of balls that have made it out to the street. Not that that really matters to the Cubs or what goes on inside Wrigley Field but it might make for an interesting side box factoid.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 1, 2009 10:14 PM CDT reply actions

A Cubs Organization Peer Review

Would be interesting to see what some other MLB front offices think of how the Cubs front office run the organization and what things they would change vs what they would keep. Peer Group should be across the board, small market to big market, successful to not successful organizations, etc.

"All I want is food and creative love" - Rusted Root

by TheRiot Police on Oct 1, 2009 10:40 PM CDT reply actions

Maybe to amend that idea...

Discuss the differences between our talent evaluators vs. the successful ones. Why do we draft poorly and others draft well.

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 1, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Colin!

I follow you around GROTA and THT. Congrats on your accomplishments, you’re one of the reasons I started getting into some basic baseball metrics. Here’s some ideas:

1 – Value of non-starters. Our bench felt a lot deeper last year. Was it?

2 – The success of trading players away for minor leaguers. I see our window of opportunity with the current team’s personnel as closing. Is there some sort of analysis that can be done to estimate the value of trading away players like Lee, Aramis, Zambrano, etc.?

3 – The middle infield. We haven’t had a good middle infield for years.

4 – Day versus night game factors.

5 – Baseball team’s performance in various weather conditions. The Twins will be leaving one of the best home field advantages for an outdoor, cold weather field next year. Does this make any difference?

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Oct 1, 2009 11:10 PM CDT reply actions

I like the day vs. night game factors too.

That would/could be very interesting.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 1, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions

I would also like to read something more about day vs night games

Every year there’s discussion of the number of Cubs home day games (specifically Friday afternoon games) and how an increase of night games would make the Cubs more competitive. I’ve never quite bought into that line of reasoning, but I’ve also never adequately looked into it with regards to other factors (travel distances for both teams, coming off a day off, whether it was a day or night game the previous day, etc).

If not that, a historical discussion on the Cubs recent run of pitching staff strikeout titles (‘01-’08) which just came to an end could be interesting, but that might not be as statistical in nature compared to many of cwyers’ posts. If nothing else it could serve as a staff-wide analysis of how well a teams K/9, K/BB, etc really corresponds to their record in that time period.

by MarchHare on Oct 2, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I like this idea too.

The Cubs as of now are 43-32 in day games this year, 39-45 in night games. They have played about 20 more day games than most teams do. I think eventually they will get a deal to play 10 more night games — up to 40 a year.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 2, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions

This also sounds like a good one

by eths on Oct 2, 2009 3:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Defense

"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko

by LaddieRenfroe on Oct 2, 2009 12:13 AM CDT reply actions

I hit "enter" mistakenly...anyway...

I stopped paying attention to the math that underlies the more complex metrics a long time ago…for example, I can explain the basic difference between WARP and VORP but I couldn’t tell you how to calculate them. Ultimately, I see most of the more sophisticated batting stats as different paths to the same conclusion (e.g. Pujols is terrific) because we’re well past the point of revelations – we know that drawing walks is a skill, and that wasn’t so startling in the first place. However, a player’s defensive abilities remain largely the subject of speculation. Watching the flood of disagreement flow in, after claiming that Soriano wasn’t actually a superlative defensive player (last year, when he was still piling up those magical assists with his “cannon”), I’d like some basis for my argument beyond saying “watch the guy, he takes weird routes to flyballs.”

As Al’s annual is basically pitched at laymen like myself, you could start by explaining why fielding percentage isn’t that important, then briefly work your way up to UZR. What really interests me is (a) possibly having access to something like Defensive f/x, computerized tracking of a player’s movement but, more importantly, (b) how such a system could be utilized to account for positioning. Every time that baseball analysts or commentators cite a player’s knack for postioning, I wish that I had an objective means of analysis. It’s just another ghost within the machine that I wish I could expel.

Here’s an example…

Elvis Andrus is a young, gifted shortstop. That’s pretty obvious. Yet, I want to know, does Andrus read the game better than his predecessor at that position, Michael Young? Young’s clearly the better hitter, for the moment, but do Andrus’s natural defensive gifts make it worthwhile for the team to shift Young away from the position? And then there’s the ancillary question of just how bad/injured Hank Blalock was…

"I'd rather play baseball than eat." - Andy Pafko

by LaddieRenfroe on Oct 2, 2009 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

We've missed you, Colin!

How about a disquisition on tangible vs. intangible ball? (I kid).

by Emelie on Oct 2, 2009 6:33 AM CDT reply actions

I've always wanted to see a stat

created that would measure a player’s volatility….or “streakyness”. For example….some players are amazingly consistent through the whole year. Others tend to go through massive hot and cold streaks. It would be interesting to see which players are the the most “streaky” and which tend to be more consistent.

BTW…Colin…been following you for a couple of years now…love your work….keep it up.

by Neifi Puppy on Oct 2, 2009 7:30 AM CDT reply actions

Aaron Miles

I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren

by lookingdeadred on Oct 2, 2009 7:32 AM CDT reply actions

Compare the lower part of our order

to previous years’, especially last year and how that contributed to the lower run production.

This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).

by mrcubsfan on Oct 2, 2009 8:15 AM CDT reply actions

A couple ideas off the top of my head:

1) As mentioned above, maybe something on defensive metrics. Maybe a detailed explanation of UZR and how the Cubs as a team (or selected Cubs players) measure up. (Maybe a sidebar on just how much Adam Dunn would have/could still hurt the Cubs if they put him in right field. Half-joking here.)

2) An in-depth look at BABIP. What role did BABIP for hitters play in the Cubs 2009 struggles? What role did BABIP for pitchers play in the success of the starting rotation – or the success/failure of certain Cubs relievers?

Always read your stuff with interest, Colin. Thanks.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Oct 2, 2009 9:02 AM CDT reply actions

I'd second Daver's first thought

My initial reaction when I saw this post was:

Let’s do an investigation into Ryan Theriot – is he a Major League-caliber shortstop or not?

You could break this down into various statistical categories – offensive analysis, defensive analysis and base running analysis. Let’s see what we have and really examine the debate over his worth as a SS to the Cubs.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Oct 2, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Do a regression analysis of Milton Bradley's effect on his teammates stats throughout the years

by Wreckard on Oct 2, 2009 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs

+1

by vivaelpujols on Oct 3, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed

People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett

by berselius on Oct 6, 2009 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Sam Fuld !

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 2, 2009 11:03 PM CDT reply actions

How fans/team expectations have rised

Of course every year you think “this could be the year” but since 2004 and really even more since 2007, Cubs fans and management really expect it to be the year. With raised payroll, the internet becoming more prevalent than ever for fans around the world to discuss the Cubs this is what we expect.

I only bring up the point now because 10 years ago, 3 .500+ winning seasons and 2 post season appearances would have looked like a huge accomplishment for the organization.

by ak123 on Oct 3, 2009 8:28 AM CDT reply actions

This is a good one.

I have often heard Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS—and specifically, “the incident that shall not be named”—referred to as the singular moment in Cubs history in which everything changed forever. I agree. I know that everyone on this site knows what I’m talking about when I say everything has changed, so we don’t need to detail it here, but it would make for a good article. It’s an interesting phenomenon. Even though the combination of WGN-TV and Harry Caray, and Ryne Sandberg and the 1984 Cubs all combined to create the modern “Cubs Nation” as we now know it, things changed even more starting with Spring Training of 2004, and it would be a good read.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Oct 3, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Game 7 was worse for me actually

But I credit the FOX camera work for that.

I remember Kerry Wood hitting that 3-Run Homer and thinking everything was going to be okay. Then the game fell apart…

It was the camera work that really go to me. They had closeups of Cubs fans looking as if their life fell apart. It was sickening.

by ak123 on Oct 3, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

If you are looking for something fairly general...

The gap between AAA and MLB seems to be getting wider every year. It’s especially true when looking at the PCL. A .300 BA in the PCL is absolutely no indicator of future ML success.

Since you are numbers-oriented, can you offer an explanation or somehow break down the discrepancy?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 3, 2009 7:07 PM CDT reply actions

"Clubhouse Cancers"

This might be a tough one, but I’m curious on how much people who are perceived as “Clubhouse cancers” affect their team and how much they affect them. For example, does having a negative attitude in the clubhouse actually affect a players performance on the field? (DLee is an interesting story this year, BTW) Also, how often do teams actually get worse with the addition of a “cancer”?

On a similar note, from what I’ve heard (and I have Crazy 08 coming in the mail to verify this) the 1908 Cubs didn’t like each other. So, I wonder if this whole “clubhouse chemistry” thing might be something that isn’t as necessary as many believe it is.

by LetsMakeADeal on Oct 4, 2009 2:34 AM CDT reply actions

The "didn't like each other"....

… was mainly Tinker and Evers, who had a dustup in 1905 and didn’t speak to each other for more than 30 years, off the field. But on the field, they buried their differences for the good of the team.

Life, and our culture, are far different than they were 100 years ago. It may have been possible to do that then; now, perhaps not so much.

The book is really good, incidentallly.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 4, 2009 7:54 AM CDT up reply actions