Harden to Red Sox?
Just heard this. Let the rumor mill spin!!!!
There is a little more if you click the "read" link. Goes to a Boston Globe article about Red Sox pitching.
about 1 month ago
BleedsbluinMI
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This is good news for us.
I hope there is a TON of interest in Harden. That way we can offer him arb and he denies. Type B free agent, right?
The article also says they’d be okay with a power pitcher who only makes 30 starts. Well seeing how that’s only happened once in his career, they are in for a big surprise. 26 starts made last year was a good season for him.
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Oct 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
Injuries have been a constant concern for Harden, but Boston would be comfortable with the power pitcher only making around 30 starts.
That won’t happen Boston.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 15, 2009 12:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I love that line.
ONLY 30 starts – like that’s some sort of bare minimum.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 15, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they misrepresented what the article said
the article said they wouldn’t expect him to make 30 starts.
by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right.
Somewhere an editor needs his or her wrist slapped.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2009 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh...
we’ll see.
You know, if Harden agrees to arbitration, he’s likely to see something in the 12 million dollar or so neighborhood for 2010. If someone wants to commit more than that to him next season, I say God bless. It’s very tough to imagine him getting a deal with a greater AAV though. If he does, good for him. I’d be happy to see the Cubs take the picks.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 15, 2009 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you are way overestimating the market.
A lot of free agents are going to be REAL surprised at the prices this offseason.
$12 million? For a guy who made $7 million in 2009 and had a mediocre year filled with injuries? No way.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 15, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Al
He’s suggesting that Harden may get 12 mil through arbitration, not through FA. I think 12 mil is a tad high for an arb figure, but I could see 10 mil. His numbers this year all slid, but still, a FA mid-rotation guy could probably net 8-10 mil, and I gotta think that, with 26 starts, followed by 25 the year before, along with his ability, that 10 mil might be possible.
by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think $12m is way too much for an arbitrator to approve...
…. for a guy who had the year Harden did.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 15, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't disagree
i’ll be surprised if he nets 12 million. Periphs were down (declining K rate, rising walk rate). Innings were down. HR rate jumped, as did BAA, along with the LOB% (quick scan of fangraphs right now). Nearly doubling his 2009 salary is not something I am expecting, but I do expect it to jump a tad if it reached arbitration. It might be as little as 1 million, or it could be as much as 3 mil perhaps.
That said, I doubt we reach that point. Once the Cubs say no to arb (don’t expect anyone to jump the gun), I anticipate that someone will pick him up at some point, provided there isn’t any sort of new medical issue (obviously, there are health concerns).
by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But when has anything involving arbitration ever come close to reflecting reality?
It will behoove the agents to be mindful of the current state of the economy when they come up with their asking numbers, but once the doors are closed, I put no stock in anyone being sensible, including the arbitrator.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 15, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Many arb-eligible players never get to a hearing.
Anybody have numbers on the percentage of arb-eligible players that actually get to a hearing?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 15, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll bet Hendry has never done it before
This year might change that tho.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 15, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doubt it.
Hendry is a player’s GM. He prides himself on making a deal without it being confrontational. Sometimes that’s hurt the Cubs (when he’s bid against himself for free agents).
No Cub has gone to an arb hearing (IIRC) since Mark Grace in 1993. I doubt that changes this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 16, 2009 8:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is to Hendry's financial advantage
to avoice arb. Arb cannot take the economic times into consideration, which can inflate what the going rate on the open market can be.
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Oct 16, 2009 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would expect...
A roughly 20% raise over his 2009 salary, but who knows? Given the contracts doled out to pitchers over the last few seasons, you could easily make an argument for 10 million without even really trying.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 16, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except...
… you are not taking into account the effects of the economy.
Example: The Angels have reportedly made Bobby Abreu a 2-year, $16 million offer.
That’s $8 million a year — for a guy who had a VERY GOOD year and may lead them to the World Series.
You’re suggesting that a pitcher who was hurt, had a mediocre year and didn’t help his team to the playoffs is going to get more than that? Maybe in the economy of 2007 or 2008.
But not in 2010.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 16, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We''re talking about apple...
vs hand grenades. This would be an arbitration situation, in which the (bad) contracts of the last few years come into play in assessing his value. Would you like to take a moment, and see what guys like Oliver Perez, John Garland, and Kerry Wood — all signed last off-season — are scheduled to make in 2010, because those are the comps that you’re coming to the hearing with. How do you think his stats stack up against those guys?
by Damen Jackson on Oct 16, 2009 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You & I differ on our assessment...
… of what an arbitrator would view in terms of recent contracts vs. current economic conditions.
The fact that Kerry Wood is going to make $10 million in 2010 should have absolutely no bearing on what Rich Harden makes.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 17, 2009 7:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually Al,
you’re just incorrect. According to the last CBA, the arbitration panel is expressly prohibited from factoring in a team’s finances. The accept either number based on:
(1) the player’s contribution to the club in terms of performance and leadership;
(2) the club’s record and its attendance;
(3) any and all of the player’s "special accomplishments," including All-Star game appearances, awards won, and postseason performance;
(4) the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class and, for players with less than five years of service, the class one year ahead of him.
This is a highlight from a arb 101 link (http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works), however it’s consistent with my understanding of the arbitration process. But you can do a bit more research on your own, if you like. I know that there have been a number of papers that I’ve read over the years that explain this process in pretty good detail.
So yes, the contract of Kerry Wood very much matters. And yes, the Cubs would likely write a 10 million check (minimum) in arbitration.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 17, 2009 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So you're saying that...
… Rich Harden having a crappy year gets him a 40% salary increase? Ridiculous.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 17, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
However...
… I also note that “the club’s record” and “awards won, postseason performance”, etc. are factors.
And, “the salaries of comparable players in the player’s service-time class”. Kerry Wood isn’t in Rich Harden’s “service-time class” — he’s spent far more time in the major leagues than Harden.
I’m not sure exactly who would be arb-eligible AND have similar service time to Harden. But I’m sure there’s a list around somewhere.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 17, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again...
I would expect that you’d hear Perez and Garland amongst a list of comparables, both of which have salaries — or options — for 2010 at 10 million plus.
The point is though is that this is not a sane process, economically speaking. The inflated contracts for pitchers over the last half decade have juiced salaries across the board. If Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are worth 10 million in 2010, then Rich Harden certainly is.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 17, 2009 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perez, maybe.
Garland has far more service time than Harden.
You’re right that it’s not a sane process. I would expect that IF Harden is offered arb, the Cubs would never go to a hearing and would likely settle for less than $10 m, given the economy AND his mediocre performance in 2009.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 17, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now on this...
we’ll just have to disagree on the assessment.
I see Harden getting 10 million in 2010, regardless. The only questions will be length of deal, and which team. There’s no reason for him to settle, knowing that at worst he can get that in arbitration. And with the free agent market being a bit spotty past John Lackey, he sells like the closest thing to a headline starter as most teams are going to find this offseason. Someone will overpay.
But, I guess we’re going around in circles here.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 17, 2009 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point...
… and it does have some validity based on past history.
We’ll just have to see if this year’s arb market is the same or not. Time will tell.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 17, 2009 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Damen here
that someone is going to look at Rich Harden as a great risk to take; I expect that someone to be an AL East team, too.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 17, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't think it possible, but you've just summed up arbitration in one line.
Rec’d.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 17, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we're lucky
someone will sign Harden before the decision date to offer arb, as happened with Kendall.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 15, 2009 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Makes a ton of sense
Boston has 3 spots in the rotation penciled in with Beckett/Lester/Buchholz. That leaves two spots. The big question may be Matsuzaka, but even if they bring back Daisuke, they could still rotate Harden and Wakefield in the 5th starter’s spot. Also, after this year, they know they can’t have enough pitching depth. The article says that they wouldn’t expect him to make 30 starts, so if they can get him to go max effort for half the year, and Wakefield in the other half, it makes a lot of sense.
I really think that we need to give up the idea of lucking into an arb pick. If it happens, be happy, but it sounds like the decision’s been made, and I would imagine that other teams can do something as simple as follow the news on expectations. Granted, I guess it’s possible someone says, screw it, we don’t care whether the Cubs get a comp pick.
by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 1:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If he's type A, no one waits
but an AL team won’t care so much if the Cubs get a comp pick, and Harden figures to have an AL market. It’s not something you can count on, but it can happen.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 15, 2009 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it could
Actually, the bigger problem may be the simple fact that teams may wait to see what happens with, say, a guy like Lackey. That said, if Boston (or some team that’s not gunning for a top arm) is clearly intent on taking a gamble like this, then they wouldn’t care about the Cubs getting a comp pick. I actually think most NL teams wouldn’t care about giving the Cubs a comp pick if Harden fits them.
by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Boston signs Harden
and we get their first round pick, can we get them to make it for us?
DEJESUS!!!
by tomas21 on Oct 16, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Boston signs Harden
they likely wouldn’t fork over a first round pick, unless Eddie Bajek is off. He’s projecting Harden as a Type B, meaning we’d get a compensation pick.
by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I remebered
MLB trade rumors saying he was a type A, I must have remembered wrong.
DEJESUS!!!
by tomas21 on Oct 16, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i wont miss
him. 10 million dollars for 9 wins would be a bit much. a great pitcher when he,s on but the injury factor will come back sooner or later.
by NOMAR on Oct 17, 2009 7:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rich Harden will generate lots of interest
He may not be durable and a constant injury worry, but bottom line he is an ace-caliber pitcher when he is healthy. There is always going to be a market for that type of commodity, even in a bad economic climate.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 18, 2009 4:26 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
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