BA's PCL Top 20

Only 1 Cub made it, which isn't that surprising. What was is who it was, and the fact that Samardzija made it at 16 slightly surprises me, so I'll be curious on the chat comments, if any. In general, Iowa was more of a dumping/stopgap stop this year, with some older guys, average guys, and so forth. A bit surprised Jake Fox didn't get some "number 20" love for his season, but again, his talent level was never high enough to forcefully really crack these lists (unless he missed the cutoff, which I don't think he did, but I'm not sure).

about 1 month ago toonsterwu 22 comments 1 recs |

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Didn't think we would have somebody on this list

The organization is obviously very high on Samardzija and I think he is the favorite to be the fifth starter next season. At the same time I just don’t see it based on what I’ve seen.

Apparently he is working on a curveball now in the Mexican league, another indicator that the team wants him starting. I suppose only time will tell.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Oct 15, 2009 4:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

honestly

i feel like the leadership is trying to prove everyone wrong on Colvin and Samardzija. It’s as if the gauntlet was thrown down that year and they are intent on proving the former as a starter who can perhaps play some CF and the latter as a starting pitcher. I really don’t see it. In the case of Colvin, with the contracts the way they are, working him in CF is fine and we can wait and see on the offense. In the case of the latter, Shark could be useful to us in the pen in the near future, whereas I just am not sold on him becoming a starter, at least, as good a starter as the Cubs hope for (could he be passable as a 5th starter – perhaps. To that extent, that is our primary need next year. That said, he could be much more useful out of the pen.)

I’d rather see Gorzelanny in the rotation. Actually, I’d rather us take a gamble on the FA market if the price is right – Chien-Ming Wang (if he gets let go, as many are anticipating) and Erik Bedard come to mind, along with perhaps Ben Sheets (although he seems slated for Texas)

by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am totally on board for the reclamation projects for 5th starter

Add Freddy Garcia to that list, too.

Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.

by DGU on Oct 15, 2009 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect Freddy Garcia will be staying with the White Sox.

I’m staying far away from Wang, Bedard and Sheets. We’ve already done that injured-pitcher-rehab thing. No thanks.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Oct 15, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

see

my take is that it’s a 5th starter. Worst comes to worse, if those guys fail (if we can manage to sign one of them), then we probably go with Gorzelanny or (gulp) Samardzija… who might be the option anyways. Both Wang and Bedard looked good at times this year. Prior to getting hurt the 2nd time, Wang actually had a real good game against Toronto, and it’s sort of hard to fault him for this year, other than not speaking up, since the Yankees mucked up his rehab. Bedard, well, quality lefties are hard to find, and if he’s healthy, he’s good and one of the better lefties in the game (plus, he’d make up for the loss of one Canadian with another – not that that matters).

by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Fifth starter

I’m holding out hope that that Taiwanese pitcher in the Japanese league will be declared a free agent, and Ricketts will see an opportunity to market the Cubs in another country. Signing Chen to a deal even in double figures a year is chump change next to the merchandising possibilities in Taiwan, and possibly selling the games for broadcast over there. That would give us another strong lefty for the rotation.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 15, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

guy's interesting

but I don’t think anyone anticipates him as being ready for the rotation next year. not impossible, but he’s not one of the elite guys in the J-League, from what I recall.

by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looked him up again

He’s currently leading the NPB with a 1.54 ERA. Throws a fastball in the low 90s, slider, and occasional curve or forkball (pitch tracks vary in their categorization from different games). He’s made 24 starts, and if I’m reading the stats correctly, his line is 164+ IP, 113 H (10 HR), 40 BB, 146 K and a record of 8-4.

Since starters in Japan generally start only once a week, a role as fifth starter would be a good way to acclimate to the US majors. He is 24 years old.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 15, 2009 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take a look at him again

but I remember reading reports awhile back that suggested that his stuff wouldn’t translate into quality stuff in the bigs. Granted, 5th starter stuff … definitely possible, but I was under the impression that he was a bit fringy to project.

By elite, I was referencing ability to translate to the bigs. Sorry, that was my fault for not being clear.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I agree

Nothing about the stats above confirm that he is a sure bet in the US. But I was glad to see that he has continued his early-season dominance, and shown no ill effects of the injury that affected him the last couple of years.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 16, 2009 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wang would be interesting

I agree about both Colvin and Samardzija, especially Samardzija. I’ll bet he gets every chance possible and then one more.

I’d rather see Gorzo as the fifth guy too, but I think Hendry will be pushing Samardzija as the guy as long as he shows some semblance of consistency in ST.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Oct 15, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see why

Caridad isn’t even garnering a look as a starter. The guy pitched great for us once we called him up. He should be on the 25 man to start the year next year, and I would rather see him start than Shark. But, even if as a reliever, he should be on our roster.

by Mulhollandmania on Oct 15, 2009 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Caridad.

But his stuff is better suited for the bullpen.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Oct 16, 2009 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

he got a little overhyped entering last year, due to success in AFL with improved stuff. Problem was, in the AFL, he was utilized as a pen arm. In the pen, he can bring some heat and reach back and gun one. As a starter, he’s better than say, Mitch Atkins, but not that much.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A surprise to me, too

Looking at his stats, he really didn’t do poorly. Raw stats of nearly a 3/1 K/BB ratio and just a little over a hit per inning. 12 HR in 17 starts is not good. He got a lot of ground balls from RH hitters. But his overall stats, adjusted for park and luck at minorleaguesplits.com, show an BA against of .300. Ouch.

My guess is the raters see him as a no-doubt relief prospect, and still a possibility as a starter. Maybe they also see what is not obvious to us in retrospect, that he was under instructions to throw a certain number of secondary pitches, and it was those that got him in trouble…or something like that.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 15, 2009 4:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's the lack of development that's troublesome about Shark

sure, he still has the potential of 3 decent-solid pitches, but they haven’t progressed. The HR’s don’t bother me that much – it is the PCL after all. Short of it is, if he can control the fastball, he jumps a lot as a prospect (well, technically, he isn’t one anymore). But without fastball command and without developed secondary options … what is he? The potential is still there, and the PCL Top 20 list was sort of split into 2 groups – very talented guys in the top 10 or so, and some talented, but questionable guys in the 11-20 rank.

by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW, the Shark had a nice outing in Mexico yesterday.

Here’s the box score.

Is there any chance Samardzija could turn himself into more of a sinker-baller, Brandon-Webb-type starting pitcher? I believe the book on him has been that he’s this power pitcher with the 95+ fastball, but he doesn’t seem to be striking a lot of guys out. Maybe he should focus more on ground ball outs?

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2009 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he actually gets

good movement. Whether or not he can, I don’t know. Some guys pick it up (Chien-Ming Wang did in AA real quick after being a 4-seam guy earlier in his career). Others don’t.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's some good news via Twitter:

@JoeStrauss: Baseball America doesn’t list a Cardinals prospect among PCL Top 20. (Wallace No. 7 w/ #As.) I don’t think that’s good.

Joe Strauss is the Cards beat reporter for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2009 9:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

haha

They traded 3 of their top 5 or 6 prospects for DeRosa and Holliday and all they got was a big fat sweep.

Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.

by nji232 on Oct 16, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Total pwnage.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

their system is pretty bad right now

trades, graduations. Really, the systems in the NL central aren’t good. Astros have a couple top talents (Lyle/Castro stand out, along with Jiovanni Mier, who some people like better than Hak-ju Lee). After that, it sinks fast. Cardinals are pretty bad. Off the top, I’d guess recent draft pick Shelby Miller would rank first, although Lance Lynn might have a case. Some usable assets, but Kozma is a “learn a level slowly” type it seems. Losing Mateo loses some luster, as far away as he was. Brewers aren’t all that hot right now. Top levels are woefully thin. Pitching is a huge issue. A lot of raw ability in the lower levels. Sort of like our system last year. Reds system is decent, but it’s thinned out quite a bit. I like what the Pirates have done, and they have some depth in the system. I think it’s either us or the Pirates with the best system in the NL Central right now.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs