The Latest From the Cubs in Winter Ball
by cubbiefan07 on Oct 22, 2009 10:21 AM CDT
95 comments
Castro Tearing it Up
Cubs short stop prospect Starling Castro has really opened some eyes in the Arizona Fall League. Posts all over the internet in the past week read headlines like Starlin a Future Star? or Castro looks Sharp in Arizona. The fact of the matter is that Castro has been doing this for some time now. He's hitting .522 with 4 RBIs for the Mesa Solar Sox in 7 games. This season, making the jump from Daytona to Class AA Tennessee proved to be no problem, as he hit .288 in 31 games for the Smokies after hitting .302 in 96 games with the D-Cubs. Next year, on March 24, this kid will turn 20 years old. He's earning himself an invite to Spring Training, and if he produces there we could see him at AAA and even become a part of the Cubs bench in 2010 or 2011.
Castillo the Next Cubs Catcher?
If Geovany Soto has another down season, I don't think the Cubs are going to be as patient with the young backstop this time around. If Geo is not hitting by June or July, Koyie Hill will get most of the catching duties the rest of the season. And if the Cubs decide to in a different direction in 2011, then Welington Castillo could be the answer. Castillo is hitting .455 in just 3 games with Mesa, and already has a home run in just 11 ABs. Welington spent the entire year at AA, and if this guy can get his bat going (hit just .232 in 95 games), we know he can catch at the big league level in the near future.
The Shark in Mexico
Jeff Samardzija was hit hard a little bit in his last outing as he allowed 4 runs on 4 hits. However, none of the runs were earned, so his ERA stays at 1.38 in 3 Games. He is not the lone Cub on Mexicalli, as he is joined by farmhands Brian Schlitter, Matt Camp, and Brad Snyder. Camp has done a lot of lead-off hitting and plays center field. He is hitting .378 with a homer, 7 RBIs, and 6 SB so far in 10 MPL games. Brad Snyder, another outfielder, has been hitting clean up and is batting .297, 2 HR, 7 RBI. He missed a lot of the 2009 season with a wrist injury, but after coming back he hit .278 with 14 HR and 44 RBIs in 69 games at AAA-Iowa.
Mesa Solar Sox
The Mesa Solar Sox team includes farm hands from the Cubs as well as the Angels, Marlins, Twins, and Red Sox this year. They have gotten off to a little bit of a slow start, as they are 3-5, in last place in the AFL East. Phoenix is 6-2 and second place Scottsdale is just ahead of Mesa at 4-4. Besides Castillo and Castro, there are a few other Cubs playing in the AFL:
- Josh Vitters: .400 AVG, 5 games, 2 RBIs.
- Andrew Cashner: 0-1, 13.50 ERA, 1 Games
- John Gaub: 1-0, 9.00 ERA, 2 Games
- Blake Parker: 3.60 ERA in 3 Games
- James Russell: 0-1, 3.60 ERA in 3 Games
- Brian Schlitter: 5.14 ERA, 3 Saves in 7 Games
Blanco Getting Some Work in
Cubs shortstop Andres Blanco has hopes of becoming a everyday player for the Cubs in the near future. He was a key piece to the bench for much of 2009, and could be right back in that role in 2010. If Fontenot, Baker, or Theriot have an injury or struggle, he will find himself getting a lot of playing time. Blanco is in Venezuela playing for Magallanes. In 8 games he's hitting .265 with 7 RBIs. He's been playing mostly second base, which makes me wonder if that is because that is the open spot on his team or if it is because the Cubs want to see if he can play second everyday. Will Blanco have a chance to win a starting job in Spring Training?
Other VWL Updates
- J.R. Mathes is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA in 3 starts for Caracas.
- Jonathan Mota is hitting .350 in 7 games for Aragua.
Perez in DWL
The Dominican Winter League has gotten underway, and so far the only Cub to get into game action was Nelson Perez, who's hitting .500 in 3 ABs for Toros so far. This season, the left handed hitting outfielder hit .251 in 120 games for Peoria with 11 home runs and 65 RBIs. According to different DWL rosters, guys like Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramriez, Esmalin Caridad, Alfonso Soriano, and more are listed to play. However, we have not seen any of these guys in game action yet or heard about them playing from any other Cubs sources.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Welington Castillo really regressed this year.
If he can get going again in 2010, he might have a shot at backing up Soto sometime down the road, or maybe even challenging him for a job.
Thanks for the detailed update.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure he regressed as much as people think
I think, whenever I finalize my winter prospect list, that he still has a good shot at the top 10. There were positive reports on his defense, and the one time I saw him, he looked fine (but SSS). The bat had horrible luck in the first half, and he had a solid 2nd half offensively. Overall, he’s pretty much a similar player as before – improving defensively, although still room for growth, and a bat that offers some pop, but is a bit of a hacker. Short of it is, a bit like Bengie Molina if he develops.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That'd be OK.
Even being Jose Molina would be OK — Jose has had a decent career as a backup for a decade, and has a shot at a WS ring this year.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he still has a lot of potential
Its up to him to see if he can tap into it, though. I would love to see him figure everything out. I also really like Brad Snyder and Matt Camp. Snyder is too old to be a “prospect” but I think, if given the shot, he could be a Garrett Jones type player. I think Camp could be a great super-utility player in the very near future.
by Mulhollandmania on Oct 22, 2009 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Snyder/Camp
Jones was never the hacker that Snyder has been throughout his career, though. Could Snyder see some time in the bigs? Perhaps, but for him to stick, he really needs to cut down his K’s.
Camp could fit a superutil role as he conceivably could play 7 spots … but the problem is, he isn’t good enough at the key defensive spots (he’d only be a stopgap/double switch SS) and he doesn’t provide enough offense. Typically, your backup MI has to be able to fill the defensive roles, and Camp won’t offer the top notch ability that might be desired. Versatility is nice, and if the rest of the team is good enough, I could see Camp fitting in as some superutil guy on some bench, but I’m not sure I see it with the Cubs, particularly with the array of middle infield talent behind him.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great report!
I believe winter ball teams list star MLB players on their rosters so they are eligible to play in the playoff push if they choose.
In the past, some will play a few games in the remainder of the regular season and then play in the playoffs and Caribbean World Series.
Also, it doesn’t really matter what position Blanco plays in winter ball as defensively he is major league ready. His hitting is the question. I suspect 2nd base is where he best fits on that particular team.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 22, 2009 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
Thanks cowsarecool, I didn’t know that was why that start MLB players are listed on rosters. I’m very interested in seeing how Castillo, Blanco, and Castro do the rest of their Winter Seasons.
by cubbiefan07 on Oct 22, 2009 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
From Buster Olney's blog today:
Some talent evaluators are raving about Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro, who is just 19 years old. So far, Castro is hitting .522 in the AFL. “He’s the most exciting kid here,” one evaluator said. “He’s got a chance to be a superstar. He’s got the bat speed, the strength, and he’s somewhere between a Jose Reyes-type of defender and a Hanley Ramirez type of guy. He looks pretty special.”
Castro figures to arrive in the big leagues full time in 2011, but keep in mind that Lou Piniella has never been afraid of aggressively promoting very young players with superlative talent — such as Alex Rodriguez.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 22, 2009 12:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
At age 18...
… A-Rod hit .312/.376/.577 at three different levels, with 21 HR and 84 RBI. The next year he hit .360/.411/.654 in 54 games in Triple-A before he was promoted. He was also a highly touted #1 draft pick.
Castro may be good, but he’s not that good, not yet, anyway.
Who else among “very young players with superlative talent” has Lou managed, anyway?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depending on how you define "very young" and "superlative" you can find at least one at TB.
B.J. Upton also got an early call up.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 22, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In both those cases....
… the 1995 Mariners and 2004 Devil Rays, we are talking about teams that were going nowhere and could afford to play a guy like that.
The 2010 Cubs aren’t in that position.
Note also that Upton went back to the minors for a full year and didn’t return fulltime until he was 22.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And let's hope that Castro
doesn’t follow the Upton career path in those particulars.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 22, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Piniella’s record of playing kids who aren’t Alex Rodriguez isn’t real good. He did in Tampa, but he didn’t really have any choice.
Look at Bret Boone, Carlos Guillen and Raul Ibanez. All three had touble getting established in Seattle, and Boone and Ibanez had to get traded, only to return to Seattle later.
But Piniella isn’t going to be managing in 2011 and Castro really won’t be ready to start at SS come April, so it really is not going to be an issue.
by Josh77 on Oct 22, 2009 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
add derek lowe
who was promptly in lou’s doghouse and then traded
by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 22, 2009 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
So let’s assume Castro is not the answer for 2010. I’ll just add that Theriot has proven that he does not have the defensive skills to take the Cubs to the promised land for 2010. We need another answer.
Two full seasons and Theriot’s footwork, arm, range, etc… are not improving. The trend is not your friend. We either look to Blanco or make a trade, but we are not going far in 2010 with the same defense we have had up the middle.
"Truth hurts. Maybe not as much as jumping on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts." - Leslie Nielson
by LAcarl519 on Oct 23, 2009 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI Lou had Derek Lowe shipped out after his rookie season in Seattle
He could not throw enough strikes for Lou who obviously did not have the patience to see if he could improve.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 23, 2009 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too bad Aaron Heilman isn't a rookie, then.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After 2010...
…the time may be right for the Cubs to make a concerted effort to get younger, we’ll see.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fully expect 2011
to be the start of a youth movement of some sort. Doesn’t necessarily mean we go full bore with our prospects, but a mix and match of trading guys and calling up our own guys to form our next “core”. 2010 is just a year too early for most of the top guys in our system, and in many respects, 2010 is the Transition Year in all aspects of the organization, from the ownership change, down to some likely minor league coaching shuffling. Come 2011, I’ll be disappointed if
a) One of our big three arms (Jay Jackson, Andrew Cashner, or Chris Carpenter) isn’t in the rotation, with
b) Another one in a pen role, perhaps grooming for a starter’s job, perhap’s not.
c) Castro taking a bigger role
d) I hope for more starters, or to trade for more starters, but I also hope that we have enough assets to allow us to spend minimal dollars on bench/role players. For example, Ryan Flaherty could be an ideal supersub in a Jeff Baker-esque role. I could see a 2nd baseman emerge by 2011 (perhaps DJ LeMahieu).
Anyhow, I don’t think I have crazy wholesale expectations (Castro, 1 rotation starter, and some pen help). And 2011 should be the starting point, as the older core will be slowly phased out.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Ideally your team has a few fresh young faces each season mixed in with veteran talent that way your team never gets too old in hurry.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 24, 2009 10:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a different, more sinister view
of why 2011 will be an important year. Labor strife.
Keep as many kids as possible off the 40 man until baseball is for real in 2011.
by tim815 on Oct 26, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, it'll be 2012.
The agreement goes through 2011.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 26, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barry Larkin was 26 when Lou took over the Reds.
But he was in his third full season of Major League Baseball by then, so Lou pretty much lucked into that one.
Olney’s comparison may be hyperbolic, but it is nice to hear some talent evaluators comparing Castro to Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 22, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't anticipate Castro making it up for more
than a cup of tea late in the year, but there was that Dave Keller quote the other day.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro
might be the first Cub born in the 90s
by cubbiefan07 on Oct 22, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably will be, even if it's not this year.
FWIW, Carlos Zambrano was not only the first Cub born in the 80’s, he was the first major league player born in the 80’s.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like Z has been around forever
So it’s weird to think that he is still pretty young
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 22, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe you Al
but do you have a source that states this (that Z was the first major leaguer born in the 1980’s)? Trying to settle a bet with a friend.
Every player should be accorded the privilege of at least one season with the Chicago Cubs. That's baseball as it should be played - in God's own sunshine. And that's really living."
by DC Cubbie on Oct 22, 2009 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure what this means...
According to Baseball-Reference, Z was born 6/1/81 and made his ML debut 8/20/01
So are you saying Z was the first player born in the 80s to make it to the majors? Or are you saying of all the major league players born in the 80s, he’s the oldest?
Neither of the above scenarios appear to be true. Again according to B-R, Pujols was born 1/16/80 and made his debut on 4/2/01. And if you think Pujols might be older than he lets on, CC Sabathia was born 7/21/80 and made his debut 4/8/01.
Maybe there’s some other criteria about Z that I’m not getting from your comment?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 22, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that was what I heard at the time.
Maybe it was that he was the first Cub born in the 80’s.
Or maybe it was from the people who think “1980” isn’t part of the “80s”.
Guess that little tidbit was wrong.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha! Self'd.
PHISH IS BACK!!!
HAMPTON, VA - MARCH 6, 7 and 8th!!!!
by TheBeerBaron on Oct 26, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Refreshing change for the Cubs' farm system
to actually produce major talent.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 22, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
“to actually produce major hitting talent.”
The farm system has done fairly well with pitching talent.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching prospects have been at best okay
I would not claim anything better than that. As for developing everyday players, I agree.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 22, 2009 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zambrano, Wells, Guzman, Marmol etc might take issue with that.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 22, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
Zambrano, a true big league pitcher
Wells, good rookie year, but still to be determined
Guzman, solid first full year
Marmol, work in progress
Would you like me to list the ones that didn’t work out
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 23, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
Marmol = work in progress?
Man I’m glad you’re not MY boss.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Oct 23, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marmol
If you think Marmol is complete pitcher, you did not watch him struggle last year. As the closer he was good, and I hope he keeps it going, but calling him a work in progress is accurate.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 23, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying he is a complete pitcher
or that he doesn’t have the possibility of failure to be an elite closer.
But come on.
His ERA+ has been 326, 167, 128 the last 3 years. His WHIP went up this year a good bit, but his k/9 IP remained consistent and his HR numbers plummeted back to 2007 levels (only 2 all year.) Obviously he had some control problems this year. Yup, we all know that.
But to say that the jury is out on whether the Cubs system has produced legitimate Major League talent in Marmol? I think that you are being a bit harsh. Dude was an all-star for goodness sakes. I think that he is legitimate major league talent.
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Oct 23, 2009 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did I say the Cubs' farm system has produced no pitchers>
Even if you accept Marmol as a productive big leaguer, that’s two and in how many years? Have the Cubs have done a better job producing pitchers than everyday players? Certainly, but that is a backhanded compliment. It does not mean that they have done a good job producing pitchers.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 23, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Castro
I think it would be a bit of a stretch to expect Castro in Chicago in 2010…but possibly not as big as one might think. And if he does wind up in Chicago, he isn’t going to be there to provide bench depth.
Since it’s technically the off-season for the Cubs, we can think this way…a middle infield of Castro at SS and Theriot at 2B might just solve a couple of unanswered questions for the 2010 squad. Just saying…
Who needs a stinkin' tag line? What are they for anyway?
by krummy12 on Oct 23, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great report, thanks for putting this up
I love (well not love, but find ironic) that Blanco is still hitting in the 265 range, that is who he is and that won’t change.
Castro is quickly becoming a June/July type callup guy I think. The Cubs and everybody love him a lot. The one thing I do worry about is pushing him up to fast and I don’t know if he will ever be a power hitter.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 22, 2009 12:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another minor league player link
over at fangraphs. Worth the click.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 22, 2009 12:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
decent quickie review
i’ll get around to mine at some point. I’ve got it mostly written up but decided to wait on AFL as I had been on business trips so much this past month. I think there’s going to be a lot of hype rolling with Chris Archer this offseason, when in all honesty, he has a ways to go to project as a starter.
A sleeper of mine for 2010 would be Justin Bristow. Athletic specimen, former shortstop, he was working his way back. He did better than I anticipated this year and there’s good growth potential. There’s a good amount of potential sleeper arms, such as Trey McNutt. I could see Dan McDaniel bounce back (odd season … stuff was down compared to what was reported before, which may have to do with the move to the rotation as much as anything). Craig Muschko had a nice run as a starter, but he’s a bit borderline for the rotation, although if we’re talking sleepers, he could be in the mix.
Let’s see, to name a 2010 positional sleeper … I’ll go with LeMahieu, who isn’t really a sleeper outside of the fact that there’s a good chance he may sit on the outside of our top 10. There’s been some positive reports, and I could see him perhaps make it to AA at some point in 2010, perhaps putting him in line for a role in 2011. Another possibility might be Rebel Ridling, who’s a good defensive first baseman with plus power, but not enough consistency with the bat yet and probably needs to adjust his swing. There’s some raw talent a bit lower.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hey small thing in your writeup here and on your blog
but brad snyder did most of his damage before his injury. he didn’t do much when he came back late in the year. My guess is that he’ll sign with another club this offseason, but it’s possible he’s back to give some punch to that Iowa lineup next year.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
nice words from Jim Callis in his chat yesterday too
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/29011
Joe P. (Las Vegas, NV)
Starlin Castro for the Cubs has been getting a lot of positive hype lately. Would you say he has surpassed Vitters as the Cubs #1 prospect now?
Jim Callis (2:07 PM)
Yes, yes I would. I’ve begun my prep for the Cubs Top 30 this week, and right now I would put Castro at No. 1 and Brett Jackson at No. 2, with Vitters at No. 3.
by PrincetonCubs on Oct 22, 2009 2:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jim Callis
Love his work, but seriously … he might singlehandedly make Brett Jackson overhyped. Okay, I’m half kidding on that, but his praise of Jackson has been … interesting to say the least. And this is coming from someone that was fine with the Jackson pick.
Anyhow, saw a Keith Law blurb on another site today that suggested Castro might be able to generate higher than a .440 slugging at his peak. If that happens, this is a guy who could be a middle of the order shortstop batter, which would be awesome, to say the least. A lot will depend on his physical maturation.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's really exciting...
… to have a Cub position player prospect with that much upside, and almost everyone agreeing that he has superstar potential.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 22, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the system's slowly turned around on the positional side
it feels like a lot of publications/lists may rank 4 positional guys in our top 5 (Castro/Brett Jackson/Vitters/Lee) and there’s a steady group of 2nd tier guys behind them (Flaherty, LeMahieu, Watkins, CAstillo, maybe Guyer if that power turnaround in instructs can translate and so forth).
I mean, physically, Lee might be a more talented shortstop, as he might project to be a better defensive player, and like Castro, should develop some power as he matures (Although the expectations on power are less than Castro’s).
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
do you think
it is just the position player developing better? IMO, it seems like the pitching development is pretty steady, but we’re seeing a nice upswing from the guys with the bats.
by fsuapollo on Oct 22, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not ready to go that far yet
most of the talent still has to prove itself at A+ (and higher) … but I think a case could be made for that. There’s been indications that kids in low levels are getting the swing adjustment they need (Ryan Flaherty comes to mind).
What I do like is that, Wilken has focused on adding athletic, up the middle talent. We knew he was going to do that due to his past history, and despite some early hiccups, he’s hit a nice rhythm.
That said, the difference between a good system and a decent system isn’t usually as much as people make it out to be. It could be as little as one draft … and the 2008 draft, right now, is responsible for a lot of the excitement in the system. It could also be some shrewd foreign signings (Castro, who wasn’t a big name signing, and Lee, who was). I know I brought up the lack of heavy Latin American pushes in the middle of this summer, but that was more a conversational/devil’s advocate piece more than anything. I am fairly pleased with our efforts out there. Along those lines, stronger scouting is a factor, and the Cubs have developed in that area, for example, by expending more money in Asia.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My view is Starlin Castro is the best prospect in the system right now
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 22, 2009 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most people agree with that
and I think Castro might end up as a top 30-40 prospect on some top 100 lists.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 7:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters
2010 is a BIG season for him. I think he is at a bit of a crossroads. Is he a legitimate blue-chip prospect, or is he something distinctly less? 2010 will probably tell the tale of what to expect for a major league career some day.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 22, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2010 is very much
a turning point year for the entire organization, from the ownership change, down to some likely minor league coaching shuffling that will occur. For many of our top prospects, and even our secondary tier guys, it’s critical seasons, and that holds for Vitters.
I think the post-season bashing of Vitters has probably gone a tad far. All he showed this year was that he wasn’t an elite prospect in regards to being able to adjust. He’s still a very good prospect, but he needs to show some advancement next year. Health is obviously important, but he also needs to
a) Show more discipline (or show that he is an exception). Expecting an exception is a foolish expectation. If it happens, if he’s a rare guy that can cover everything and can attack at the right time, great. But realistically, his discipline needs to step up a tad. Now, I think there’s a certain line you can’t cross without damaging his instincts, and I don’t claim to know what that line is, or how to judge it.
b) Show more fluidity. He didn’t look bad defensively when I saw him, but he’s still a bit choppy, and some reports late in the year made it sound like he’s still an iffy bet to stick at 3rd. His value is far higher at 3rd than at first, for obvious reasons.
by toonsterwu on Oct 22, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no
I agree, except that you can’t always expect every prospect to develop in a straight upward line. It’s not as if Vitters will be 24 in 2010.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 22, 2009 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your Right
Vitters struggled somewhat after being moved up to Daytona. He batted just .238 after the jump. Big year for him next year.
One good thing with 2009 was that we got a look at a lot of the younger guys, and we saw a lot of good things from guys like Colvin, Wells, Fox, Blanco and many relief pitchers. If it weren’t for the injuries and poor play we wouldn’t have got the chance to take a look at those guys.
by cubbiefan07 on Oct 22, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he did have a hand injury
im hoping thats why he wasnt good in daytona..
"hey
by jesus christos on Oct 23, 2009 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dream
I put a big emphasis on “dream” about a Star Cubs SS who can anchor this team with his high level of play both offensively and defensively. One who is also a true team leader!! i’m smiling at the thought of Castro being that guy. Please Santa this all I want for x-mas for the next 10-12 years!
I would sleep with Blou if it meant the Cubs would win a WS. by Doggie Stalker on Aug 22, 2009 4:11 PM EDT
by cubsluver22 on Oct 22, 2009 8:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um not good news today
Gaub rocked for 4 runs in one inning. Castillo 0-3 with a passed ball. Cashner got the loss but he did not pitch badly.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 22, 2009 11:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Gaub
if there’s a positive in the game from yesterday, it’s that, in the time he was out there (the 6th inning and started the 7th), the hits given up were 2 ground balls and 2 line drives, 3 singles/1 double, and more importantly, they were all to righties. At his best, I thought Gaub had a shot to be a plus-LOOGY type (a lefty that, while perhaps not ideal against righties, can succeed), but my simple hope was that he could be a solid LOOGY.
I understand the need to protect Cashner a bit, but the strict limits he has in AFL frustrates me. At some point, for him to fully make the conversion to starting, he has to stretch out. It’s partly why I still project him more as a power pen arm (along with the fact that his secondary stuff needs work and the fact that the reports suggest his stuff tailed off the longer he was out there).
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 7:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Release the bums!
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 23, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post.
Okay – with the Cubs history of overvaluing minor league “name” talent viewed as can’t miss 5 tool position players (Patterson, Pie, Hill) first come to mind, is there a scenario where selling high on Castro now can convert a proven player who can upgrade the Cubs for the next 3-5 years?
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 23, 2009 8:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i don't think you ponder it
Potentially elite shortstops are hard to get … it’s worth the gamble to see how he plays out. Luckily, we have two guys that are potentially elite shortstops, so that’s something exciting to look forwards to, and under Wilken, I expect us to grab more up the middle talent (unfortuantely, seems like Wes Darvill might not be able to be groomed at short).
There’s chips that can be played (for example, I’m a big Jay Jackson fan, but if a team came calling about him, in the right deal, you ponder it), but I don’t think Castro is one of them. Now … I always say that you need to ponder all possibilities, so I will say that if Castro can be converted into an elite young player in the bigs right now, I’d ponder it. But it’d only be in a deal for a top young talent, someone not yet in their prime years. This isn’t Ronny Cedeno that we’re talking about – Castro’s ceiling is far, far higher than Cedeno’s. He might never reach there, but there is enough out there to think that Castro might be up at some point in 2010, and probably has a good shot as our starter in 2011, that, considering the upside, it’s not worth it for us to move him unless it’s a “stupid” trade, something we can’t justifiably turn down. Is that trade out there? I doubt it.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for the perspective.
I am growing gun shy over the can’t miss high ceiling prospects who either prove to not be worth half the hype or are not give the opportunity to develop, either because of an underfunded minor league system that lacks an organizational philosophy or under the recent string of veteran biased Cub managers.
If he can be anything close to the down year 2009 Jimmy Rollins, he’s worth keeping regardless. If his upside is viewed no better than Theriot or Theriot-…
My comment was more from excercise of how to define when a prospect is at the highest point to sell. Given the flavor of the month press and the way he’s tearing it up, is now the highest point? Time will tell.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 23, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotcha
I would venture a guess that the highpoint for Castro would probably be within the next year or so. Defensively, his tools aren’t likely to collapse, and so the issue is a measure of consistency. Short of it is, I don’t see his defensive value slipping in the next year or so. Offensively, well, that’s the bigger question, but his body should be coming into his own physically within the next year or so. He might not reach his peak offensive potential, but assuming his contact ability doesn’t drop, then physical maturation would likely kick his value up.
A lot of it’s, but I don’t think he’s at his high value point yet.
Btw, his upside is far superior to Theriot’s. Darwin Barney is more Ryan Theriot (Barney probably a better defensive player, Theriot likely a better offensive player). All sorts of crazy comps are being tossed around. I can’t honestly say that I love any of them (asking him to be HanRam offensively is just too much for me … if he does, then awesome, but I’m not setting expectations that high … I don’t see the speed of Jose Reyes in him). J. Roll’s probably a fairly solid comp for him, which is placing fairly high expectations, sure. I’m not sure he’ll have the high SB numbers that J Roll had when younger.
Another comp I’ve made for Castro is Brian Roberts with better defensive ability. IIRC, Roberts started as a shortstop as well. That said, there’s a speed factor there as well. Another comp I’ve heard people make is Edgar Renteria, but in terms of potential upside, the expectations of power are higher than what Renteria has done for most of his career. Actually, the best comp is probably the one that we’re trying to avoid. Again, talking about ceiling here, but offensively, the expectations are somewhat similar to what Derek Jeter has done for his career, and here’s hoping for better glovework. Another solid comp might be Yunel Escobar.
Again, talking about ceiling.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was trying to think of a young SS who was working out in the majors, but brought up
early this season and couldn’t think of one. Then I rememberd he was playing third. Castro’s AA numbers compare closely with Beckham. Castro appears to have a better glove, and Beckham has more power.
Given Beckham has 2 years and 30 lbs on Castro, the power will probably increase with maturity, diet, and weight training.
As for Jeter, neither Beckham or Castro have owned AA quite like Jeter did. As for Rollins, keep in mind I was referring to his 2009 only, which was pretty bland compared to his prior 5-6 seasons.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 23, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
Jeter in AA as 20 yr old:
142 PA
122 AB
7 2b
2 3b
2 hr
13 RBI
12 SB
2 CS
15 BB
16 SO
.377 avg
.446 OBP
.516 slg
.962 OPS
Yeah. I’d say he owned it. Was a year older than Castro, but still…
"Manny Trillo is coming in to pinch run. You know, for a lot of teams, you would pinch run for Manny Trillo." - Harry Caray
by Archie on Oct 23, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, i wasn't comparing their minor league numbers
i was trying to find an offensive comparison relative to what the current high end expectations for Castro are. Emphasis on high end.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
trying a numbers approach
looking solely at high end expectations on offense,
most folks are assuming that his contact ability will remain. As he matures, his discipline rates may improve and he might walk a bit (say 10+% of the time) to go with a K rate that will, hopefully, sit in the 12-15 % range. So, we’re talking high average/high OBP expectations (Again high end expectations). The change, if any, is that folks are expecting power. Not power for shortstop, but power overall. Thus, a guess at a high end expectation line for Castro might be something like .300/.380/.460.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes sense. At 6 foot 1, 160 lbs (Per BR), there's not
much there to create any power. Hey, if you’re saying he could put put up Trammelesque numbers with a similar plus glove, I’m liking it.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 23, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's hoping
as noted, that’s probably high end expectations, and he still has to develop into that. But the upside is, by most accounts, there.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Starlin Castro has been compared to a Shawon Dunston
If Castro could be what Dunston was then that wouldn’t be a bad thing at all. Dunston was a hack who swung and everything and prone to long slumps, but he was a quality shortstop and injected some desperately needed athleticism to those plodding Cub teams.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 25, 2009 6:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If he's Dunston
that will be a vast disappointment right now. I’m not saying I necessarily expect him to be the solid defense, high contact, above average power guy that the current talk suggests, but … Dunston would be a huge disappointment for me right now.
On a side note, Castro isn’t expected to add a huge running component. He should be a solid SB guy in his youth, but if the power develops, as some expect, he’ll likely hit close to the middle of the lineup.
by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2009 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I've learned anything in my 33 years of being a diehard Cub fan it's that NEVER buy into the initial projections for a hotshot young prospect in the system
I’ve read a couple of credible sources who both suggest that Shawon Dunston is an apt and realistic comparison for Starlin Castro at this stage. All things being equal I’ll take that in a heartbeat because A) Dunston was a quality ballplayer albeit with flaws and B) it sure beats the alternative of becoming the next Corey Patterson.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 26, 2009 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not buying into any projections
He could very well fail (as could all prospects). I’m just saying I would be disappointed, but I think the recent hype has gotten a bit out of control, as there’s a lot of projection left in his body.
I’m not sure Dunston compares, though, outside of saying that both have some pop and both have strong arms, which isn’t saying much. Dunston, while not a wild hacker, was in a Vitters mode of not taking walks that much. He didn’t use the field all that well. When I saw Castro earlier this year, while I am simply a fan, you never really saw him get too out of position as a result of a swing.
Defensively, again, don’t see much similarities outside of a strong arm and some athletic ability. Dunston had a more scattershot arm when compared against Castro. I was never a big fan of how Dunston played the position – his athleticism allowed him to overcome things. It’s easy to see with Castro that he has the movement that Dunston never had.
All that isn’t to say Castro will succeed. There’s a lot of projection and he has to be more consistent. That said, I’m curious what sources would suggest to you that Dunston was a more apt and realistic comparison. Beyond seeing him, I’ve kept up with most of the scouting reports available online, and talked to some people. Any base similarity simply lies with athleticism, some pop, and strong arm, which I can attribute to several shortstop prospects. Nothing I’ve read, heard has suggested that Castro will suddenly have a collapse in his walk rate and stop walking. Who knows, maybe he suddenly has a mental hiccup and that happens, but it’s hard to figure that as of this moment. I haven’t heard anyone say that his arm was too scattershot (Dunston had a far superior arm, IMO). I just don’t see the comparison. There’s a lot of lesser guys that I can buy Castro comparisons to … Dunston, I just don’t see.
by toonsterwu on Oct 26, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BLou = 33????
I figured one had to be as old as me or older to be so incessantly negative. Go figure.
I always turn to the sports section first. The sports page records people's accomplishments; the front page has nothing but man's failures.
~Earl Warren
by lookingdeadred on Oct 27, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As Indiana Jones once said: "It's not the years, it's the mileage."
Now only 12,859 on the "Cubs Season Tickets Waiting List"...
by Zeke on Oct 28, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All this talk about Starlin Castro. Yawn... more Cubs hype machine
Hak-Ju Lee is the SS I’m excited about.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 26, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
it isn't really the Cubs hyping him up
It’s more other people. Lee might actually develop into the better defensive player, but
a) He’s stuck in the 2 hole basically, in that, he’s 3 levels behind at the moment (Castro finishing at AA and Lee at A-). He would need Castro to fail defensively to likely force his way through. If Castro establishes himself, it’ll be hard for Lee to move past him. It’s why, if someone asked me, I’d say that the Cubs CF of the future was Lee right now.
b) Castro and Lee are somewhat similar, but there’s some vast differences. While Lee should develop some pop, he’s more in the leadoff mode. I compare him to Che-Hsuan Lin of the Red Sox in offensive game, body, and potentially, position if Lee has to move to CF. Lee’s more of a get on base, cause havoc guy. The esteemed AzPhil has said that Lee is faster than Tony Campana … and Campana is blazing fast. (I’m not sure if AzPhil misspoke). Castro projects more as a potential RBI bat than Lee, and middle of the order guys tend to to get more excitement/hype.
That said, both are superbly exciting talents to have, and it’s nice to have such high ceiling middle infield talent that look to be developing, considering the year before, all we had was the hope of Castro/Lee, with Darwin Barney as our top shortstop.
by toonsterwu on Oct 26, 2009 9:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee is BLAZING fast
If I remember correctly from the Minor League game recaps, Lee stole bases on a pitchout on more than one occasion this year.
"You win because of the quarterback. We have to get that position stabilized. We're fixated on that." -- Jerry Angelo (12.30.2008)
Jerry Angelo trades for Jay Cutler! (4.2.2009)
.
by SackMan on Oct 26, 2009 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
means nothing
if the pitcher still gets it to home plate in 1.3. You could steal 2B on a pitchout at 1.3.
by socalbob on Oct 27, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There may be truth in that...
Lee strikes me as having serious defensive chops…and in the end that is the big key to being a viable major league infield prospect. The fact that he displays top of the order hitting qualifications at an early age makes him an intriguing package to follow.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 26, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee's defense
While, as noted, that I think as of now, that Lee projects better defensively, we’re talking about a potential projection of a good defensive player (Lee) to a potential projection of a solid-good defensive player (Castro). Only time will tell, but one thing that has to be watched on Lee is whether or not his body fills out. Castro’s will fill out as well, but Lee’s frame might be able to handle a bit more, so we’ll have to watch and see how that plays out and what impact that has on either player’s defensive ability.
by toonsterwu on Oct 27, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's conceivable, isn't it...
… that one of these guys could be the Cubs’ future SS, and the other moved to 2B?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 27, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd lean towards CF as well
for Lee. With that speed an arm strength, that would be nice. Brett Jackson profiles well for CF, but Lee profiles as a superior defensive player, allowing you to focus on a plus arm in RF that doesn’t have as much range responsibility.
That said, if Lee forces his way into short and forces Castro, my guess would be Castro going to 2nd. He would probably project alright there, but in that scenario, they might ponder a Brett Jackson in CF or a Logan Watkins.
Logan Watkins is an interesting X-factor to follow, along with DJ LeMahieu. Both profile for 2nd, although Watkins might be able to go to CF as well. There seems to be spec that Flaherty isn’t viewed that highly on the 2nd base job ladder (perhaps behind LeMahieu) which somewhat befuddles me.
In discussing all these guys, if 1 of them truly pans out to what their potential is, I’d be very pleased. Anything more is really gravy.
by toonsterwu on Oct 27, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARL performance
age-relative-to-league performance shows he will be special.
Miguel Cabrera was over-hypoed because he hit .274 as a 19 year old in the Florida State League. How did that turn out?
The younger a player is compared to his competition in the minors is a HUGE factor when prospecting.
by socalbob on Oct 27, 2009 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and no
For every Miguel Cabrera there is a Ruben Rivera or Alex Escobar.
The thing to do is be both excited for and patient with Starlin Castro. It’s nice to have a player like this percolating up the system. Especially since there is mounting uncertainty on Josh Vitters.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
by BLou on Oct 27, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems as good a place to post this
Anyhow, I gotta finish up my Cubs prospect list in the next few weeks. I figured I’d put my rough top 15 here (still making changes, although the top 7 is pretty much set), with grades/quick comments (which will be expanded when I finish).
1. Starlin Castro, B+. Even if he doesn’t hit the high end expectations right now, he’s still a very promising AS potential shortstop. Those are rare, and are prized. I’m guessing he’ll be a top 25 prospect for many lists. Guessing he starts in AA, but don’t be surprised with AAA. Don’t be surprised if he’s up by midseason.
2. Josh Vitters, B. A bit overly bashed in recent months, he has a very fluid swing and the wrists explode. No matter what, though, he has to take more pitches. Look for him in that 50-80 area on most prospect lists. Look for him to start in A+ (Daytona).
3. Jay Jackson, B. The demotion/character question hurts, but the development is too good to pass up here. With a plus slider and a solid curve to go with his low-mid 90’s fastball that can top out in the upper 90’s, this is a starter’s arsenal, and simply put, he’s more developed than the other two top arms. He’s got a potential average change. Control and consistency are issues. Look for him in the back of end of the top 100 of prospect lists, if he makes it on. He’ll start in Iowa and may be a midseason call up.
4. Andrew Cashner, B. Has the most upside of any arm in the system, but he needs consistency on the slider and the change needs to step up. If he does, and if he can go longer, then watch out. If he makes top 100 lists, it’ll likely be on the back end. Look for him to be in AA .. and perhaps stay there for a huge chunk of the year.
5. Hak-Ju Lee, B/B-. Potential is great, and it was a good start, but he’s so far away and there’s so much projection left. Plus speed, good field fluidity, advanced hitting approach. Has the potential to be a plus fielder. Smooth. I compare him to Che-Hsuan Lin in offensive approach. He might make that 70-100 area on top 100 lists. Look for him to start in Peoria and be there for a huge chunk of the year. It’s a good fit, as several of our Korean signees could be there, such as Rhee, Kim, Jung, and maybe Na (I think Ha will be in Boise).
6. Chris Carpenter, B-. Always had the 2 solid pitches, with a fastball that can top out in the mid-90’s and a plus curve, his change showed improvement this year. Heck, the fact that he stayed healthy was good enough for me. Look for him to start in AA with a shot to be in AAA by midseason. Could be a late season callup. I’m not expecting him in top 100 lists, although he could crack a top 150 list.
7. Brett Jackson, B-. I was in the minority when the pick was made, as I was pleased with it, but Jim Callis is almost singlehandedly making me think Jackson is a bit overrated. On upside, you could plop him 3rd, and he could develop that way. He’s got to show more consistent discipline, but if he does, there’s a lot to like about a guy who is solid in CF, solid defensively, has speed, a good throwing arm, and power. Look for him to start in A or A+, but could end in the year in AA. He could range anywhere from 80 to maybe 150 on top prospect lists.
8. Kyler Burke, B-/C+. He had a great season. It needs to be emphasized – a great season. He’s very young. He simply looks like a ballplayer, and if you were building an ideal corner OF, Kyler would look very close to it. Solid discipline for a power hitter, solid range for a corner OF and can pinch in CF, power, strong throwing arm (one of the best in the system … although perhaps wasn’t the best arm in Peoria). He’ll be questioned a bit due to having been in the A level before, but if he pushes through next year, he’ll jump real fast. Look for him to start in Daytona, but a good start and he could be in Tennessee by midseason.
9. Ryan Flaherty, B-/C+. I was a bit down on him early, but there was bad luck. Throughout, he had strong periphs. Fixed his swing in season, and finished strong. If the contact ability that he showed late was real, then he may sneak up on major lists next year. The power and solid enough defense makes him intriguing. IF the contact is there, he’ll be very good. ARL doesn’t bother me, since that was due to Daytona falling out of the race. I look for him, as do many Cubs fans, to start in AA, perhaps at 3rd base.
10. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-/C+. The B- portion is a “draft pick” nod to potential. On ability, he would rank much higher, as when he was healthy last year, he showed 3 good pitches, with a strong out pitch. That said, he’s coming off surgery (although he was throwing by the fall). There was some previous question as to whether or not his frame could handle starting, so that may be something to watch. Here’s hoping that, if he doesn’t get bigger, that he physically matures a bit. Look for him to start in Peoria and potentially be there for most of the year.
11. Tyler Colvin, C+. Give him some credit – after rehabbing and taking a nasty hit with Campana, he finished strong in AA and saw some big league time. He’ll likely never show enough bat to be more than a bench guy, but he should see time in the bigs. Look for him to start in AAA, and get time if guys get hurt.
12. DJ LeMahieu, C+. The esteemed AzPhil has suggested that DJ could be fast tracked as the 2nd baseman of the future (or something along those lines). He has the plus contact ability. I’m not sold the power will ever develop. In some ways, this is a Matt Murton type case – for that power to develop, it may sap his contact ability by forcing him to redo his swing. I’m not sure that’s worth it if he can play 2nd base. May start in Daytona, but I expect him at Tennessee at some point if all goes well. Could start in AA.
13. Logan Watkins, C+. Former prep QB had himself a good year in Boise, showing a plus approach and solid at 2nd. He’s a top of the order type, get on the base profile. Could potentially be tried in the OF. Look for him to start in Peoria. I really expect Watkins and Lee to be groomed together as long as possible. There was that sappy midseason article about the two of them. Bruce Miles has indicated that Cubs minor league folks are really high on him.
14. Chris Archer, C+. He had an excellent season. Repeating Low A didn’t bother me – different league. Problem is … how much has he improved from his HS days? He always had low-mid 90’s heat with a plus curve. Some indications that the change has taken some quality steps this year, but his mechanics are still questioned. There’s some folks that feel he might be better as a pen arm, but I imagine the Cubs will keep him in the rotation as long as possible. Look for him to be in Daytona next year.
15. Welington Castillo, C+. I may be accused of overrating him this offseason. He had some bad luck early offensively, and he was strong late. Reports suggest improved defense (only saw 1 game, so I wouldn’t be bold enough to make any sort of claims). This is still a quality catching prospect, perhaps more Bengie than Yadier. Will be in AAA, likely splitting time at catcher and maybe doing some DH work. Defense is the key – offense is gravy. Could be a Bengie Molina type starter … or could be a Henry Blanco type backup if the defense improves.
Three quick thoughts (will also be expanded):
Very pleased with the system’s direction. I know someone complained midseason about a lack of speed in the system, which is absolutely wrong. What’s wonderful about the system is a mix of different skillsets. This isn’t to say we have an elite system, but it’s a good start considering the last few years.
This may be shocking … but this is a positionally oriented system as of right now. What do I mean? There’s a nice top tier of pitching … and then it bottoms out fast. I imagine the 2010 draft may be a pitching focused draft.
I love the up-the-middle focus. While we are a bit weak at catcher right now (Cerda has been moved, Burruel/Rosa/May are works in progress), overall, there’s strong up the middle ability.
by toonsterwu on Oct 30, 2009 7:23 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
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