Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 9:11 AM CDT
in News
148 comments
With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.
As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.
The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.
Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)
Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:
Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs
Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:
Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60 Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83 Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76 Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves
And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.
Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:
Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs
And, because you'll ask:
Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs
James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.
There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.
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I don't care if Bradley wins the triple crown (fat chance)
I still wouldn’t want him on my team.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
by Ace Venom on Oct 23, 2009 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't either, and...
…. I think a year from now, we’ll see that projection is way off, particularly for the amount of playing time.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're probably right
Bradley will go nuclear at some point.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
by Ace Venom on Oct 23, 2009 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 23, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
I have a feeling that Milton’s personality issues would magically disappear if he won the Triple Crown for the Cubs.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
winning cures many problems
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Oct 24, 2009 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
would u want him on your team if he wins your team a world series ....
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Oct 23, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So far, no team he has played on has done that...
… and I don’t think Bradley by himself is the difference-maker between winning and not winning a WS.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well .... if winning the triple crown means going to the playoffs then sure i'd take him
if a pitcher wins 25 games in a season but has attitude problems, would you take him? Damn right i would if he contributes to a team.
COOL BEANS!
by lexmarklover on Oct 23, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This doesn't seem like a rational statement
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 23, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
that's one of the most ridiculous things I've seen posted on this site
Milton WON’T ever win the Triple Crown. But you wouldn’t want a Triple Crown winner on your team because he’s kind of a jerk?
I can see not wanting someone like Barry Bonds for moral reasons. But there’s no evidence that Milton ever cheated. And, as I said below, if Milton won the Triple Crown, I have a feeling his personality issues would have magically disappeared.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your "if" has flawed reasoning.
Milton Bradley is not capable of winning the Triple Crown.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's what I said in the first sentence, Al
He clearly won’t win the Triple Crown. But you really wouldn’t want him on the Cubs if he did? That was Ace’s statement. “I don’t care if Bradley wins the Triple Crown.”
I was addressing Ace’s hypothetical.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I get it now.
Sorry, kind of lost the thread there. Apologies.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's cool
I hope Bradley’s gone, too, because I don’t think he’s capable of a mental recovery in Chicago to the point where he can be a productive player, let alone win a Triple Crown. Bridges burned, and all that.
But to say that a Triple Crown winner who hasn’t done anything worse than being an ass on numerous occasions should NOT be a Cub is not clear thinking.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not like he'd ever do it
The saying is just to show how much I want him gone.
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
by Ace Venom on Oct 23, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK -- I gotcha
You were exaggerating to make a point.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless of position,
Beltran looks to be the RBI/power guy and Magglio looks to be next best that would fit what we need. Anyone have a preference?
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on Oct 23, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Magglio could put up those numbers...
… I think he’d be the right choice. You’d have to either make sure he doesn’t get the 540 PA he’d need for his 2011 option to vest, or be OK with paying him for 2011.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is an awful game of chicken...
to be playing, don’t you think?
by Damen Jackson on Oct 23, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
At Maggs’ age, you’d think he’d need some rest anyway, and probably would be more productive if he played about as much, or a little less, than he did in 2009 — 518 PA.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I tell you what...
If Ordonez was willing to redo his contract for a modest guaranteed 2011 contract — with the understanding that otherwise the Cubs would be prepared to sit him — then this makes some sense. Maybe. Past that, it just seems like doubling down on stupid to risk committing 18 million a year for the next two seasons to Mags.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 23, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who knows?
There might be room for negotiation, especially since the Tigers seem motivated to move him.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IF Magglio becomes a Cubbie...
… will Cubbie fans call him “Fagglio” like they did when he was a White Sox player?
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
by DrCrawdad on Oct 23, 2009 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if he plays in right field.
Bunch of haters out there.
"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill
by Goodie1969 on Oct 23, 2009 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
or if he goes to a school
those damn racist teachers…
"hey
by jesus christos on Oct 23, 2009 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that is what the Sox fans call him now
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 23, 2009 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
I never heard cubs fans call him that, but, sadly, I’m sure they did. But when I was at a Sox-Tigers game last year a couple guys the row behind me kept referring to him as such.
by shoemile on Oct 23, 2009 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
by DrCrawdad on Oct 23, 2009 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
You must have a huge list of those. That link is dated 2003.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 24, 2009 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, simply used Google
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
by DrCrawdad on Oct 24, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Try Googling
“Obsession.”
"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill
by Goodie1969 on Oct 24, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 24, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
by DrCrawdad on Oct 24, 2009 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So some random blogger uses that term six years ago...
…and you imply he represents all Cubs fans. Why do this?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said that?
I have heard Cubbie fans say that, quite a few times. Was it all Cubbie fans? No. I don’t think all Cubbie fans would say it nor a majority, but many did say it.
You’re right though about a random observation and swiping a large group from that random observation. However, that’s some people’s favorite here. I’d like to hear you pipe in the next time someone here encounters one or two Sox fans and draws conclusions on all Sox fans (for examples, see Al Yellon’s comments on the 2005 post-season.)
"People shouldn’t bust your chops just because you’re a Sox fan on a Cub board — but I know it happens. FWIW, I think sites like this are more interesting when fans of other teams join in the conversation." by Shanghai Badger on Mar 13, 2009
by DrCrawdad on Oct 24, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lemme guess...those Cubs fans were sitting in the bleachers at Wrigley Field...
…or maybe in a bar somewhere. Again, I’d ask: Why bring it up? What’s the point of discussing the behavior of idiots?
And I’ll keep an eye out for people acting the same way toward Sox fans but, again, most of those who make such remarks aren’t worth responding to. I don’t recall the comments by Al that you’re referring to but something tells me they weren’t all that bad.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wanted Beltran 4 years ago...
…Badly. If he’s healthy, I’d love to have his bat in the middle of the lineup. Can we afford him? I have a hard time thinking the Mets would take Bradley for him though. I’m all for keeping Kosuke in RF so I’m torn between Beltran and Granderson. Not too sold on Maggs in RF, I think we can do better than that.
by TeddyThunder on Oct 23, 2009 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we're fairly delusional to think Bradley could net us Beltran without giving up plenty more
Sure, he’s been injured. But when healthy he’s a top 3-CF. A healthy Bradley isn’t necessarily a top RF, and that’s a much easier position to fill. I live in NY and I’m fairly certain Mets fans would commit a mutiny if this kind of trade happened.
I have no idea how this Beltran stuff got started in the first place – anyone have a clue? Google isn’t showing me anything, so this screams “Cubs fans like to believe other teams exist to give us their best players”.
This is Milton Bradley, the guy who ruined the 2009 Cubs, remember? And the Mets, one of the most harsh environments to play in, where fans boo you the first time you do something wrong.
by madcow256 on Oct 24, 2009 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ironically
Granderson has the highest SLG out there. If he’s on the trading block AT ALL, Jim should be talking to Detroit a ton.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's very good,
but he absolutely must be platooned.
Metal sharpens metal.
And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan
by dakoose on Oct 23, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
25 starts for Lilly?
That seems pretty low. Apparently James is predicting another injury.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Oct 23, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope not
Lilly is key to the success of this rotation, he is another year older however, hopefully he has no lingering effects from the shoulder injury last season.
by tripdenten on Oct 23, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lilly will be pitching for a contract
Which makes me think he’ll make at least 30 starts.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC, he's had that issue before, so I'd think he'd be ok
I’m hoping for 200+ innings
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Oct 23, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James has a good racket going.
People pay good money for his off the wall guesses.
by Clark Addison on Oct 23, 2009 10:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
The guy lost me when he fashioned Ronny Cedeno as a .300 hitter a few seasons ago.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 23, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least he admits when he's wrong.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can appreciate that....
I just don’t consider it quite the gospel that I used to, is all.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 23, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
James' projections aren't very good as projections go
they just have the value of being the first ones out.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Complex algorithms, walls - it's all the same in Clark Addison's world.
Trying to get him to understand one would be like you banging your head against the other.
by Wreckard on Oct 23, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw that album at a rummage sale last week
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Oct 23, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
James is a smart dude...
…but there isn’t any human (or machine) that I go running to read their projections for next year.
It’s all interesting stuff, but I’d rather see what happens on the field.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take those numbers from Soriano and Soto
That probably puts us back as the class of the NL Central
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 23, 2009 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd be interested in the projections for Theriot
Also, if the Cubs score so many runs, I have a hard time thinking we won’t have a starting pitcher with more than 12 wins.
Oh, and the Soriano projection seems right, for some reason.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:03 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Theriot
.284/.352/.357, 26 doubles, 4 HR, 50 RBI, 84 runs, 21 SB
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ahh... but how many "caught stealings"? ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 23, 2009 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
probably 21
and about 40 other examples of being thrown out on the bases running like an idiot.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
by nji232 on Oct 23, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the projected number of CS for Theriot was 10.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting...
The projections for the Cubs’ pitchers are basically all of their numbers from this season, with Wells’ ERA being higher. Personally, I expect better from both Z and Dempster. It will be interesting to see how Wells pitches in his second season as well, since most of the league will have seen him.
As for the players we could aquire, I am shocked James projects Vernon Wells to do that well, considering he has played like garbage most of the last few seasons.
It is encouraging that he expects Lee to put up big numbers again, we’ll need him. Also, I find it curious that he has Ramirez only hitting 27 HR over a full season. If healthy (that’s the key) he should hit more. Lastly, no way Soriano drives in 77 RBI, he has yet to do that so far as a Cub, the average is probably a little high too, 30 HR is realistic, if he’s healthy.
by tripdenten on Oct 23, 2009 11:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Soriano's RBI total
I’m guessing that’s based on Soriano hitting sixth, not first.
Ramirez’s HR total is probably about right coming off the shoulder injury. But I’d predict more RBIs.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Soriano RBI total...
… is based on him leading off for most of the last few seasons. If he hits 5th or 6th in 2010, he’s likely to drive in a lot MORE runs. Remember, Soriano has also been injured for significant portions of all of his Cub seasons so far.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Valid points
I totally spaced on Soriano hitting 6th. Hopefully, that’s where he stays, and that is where he belongs. See what happens when you don’t watch the Cubs for a few weeks!
by tripdenten on Oct 23, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't.
While I would certainly expect a healthy (knock on wood) Soriano to have a lot more chances to hit with RISP if he’s hitting 5th or 6th, there’s not a lot of track record to suggest he’ll do a whole lot with those chances.
Sori with RISP
’09: .216
’08: .276
’07: .248
’06: .231
’05: .235
’04: .253
Basically, he’s the anti ARam:
’09: .425
’08: .310
’07: .338
’06: .293
’05: .285
’04: .336
Don’t get me wrong… Sori can be a useful player if healthy (the big caveat, obviously). But a real “RBI man”? Doubtful.
by fsuapollo on Oct 23, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the .276 isn't horrible
But otherwise, eeh …
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems uncanny that his best year with RISP
Was the year many Cubs had career years. However, the .216 is a bit … eurgh!
Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy, and taste good with ketchup!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 24, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Al ...
Whar are the projections for Harden?
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Here you go.
Harden: 24 starts, 135 IP, 59 BB, 147 K, 10-5, 3.33
Gregg: 67 games, 65 IP, 27 BB, 60 K, 4-3, 4 saves, 3.60
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm interested to see where Gregg lands
… and how much money he’ll earn.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how did you forget the great Aaron Miles
and what he is projected
baseball is a game of outs......pop out, ground out, line out, pitch out, strike out, fly out, and Fox and Bud's favorite black out
by Cubbie-Tim on Oct 24, 2009 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because this projection is way off.
Aaron Miles: .274 .318 .363, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 15 runs, 7 BB, 15 K (124 at-bats)
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 24, 2009 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many blown saves for Gregg?
Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy, and taste good with ketchup!
by Vermont Cubs Fan on Oct 24, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Homeruns...
…and lot’s of them.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee outhitting Aramis? I would love to see those two have those kind of seasons.
And that pitching projection lineup is pretty crappy. 12 wins is the best we can do from a starter?
I’d take Granderson, Young, or Beltran. The rest look like carbon copies of players we already have.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If Ramirez is healthy...
…he will outhit Lee.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not if Lee hits like he did this year.
If they’re both fully healthy, Lee edges Rami, I think, but maybe Rami hasn’t ever been fully healthy, so I could be off.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee impressed me this year...
…and I hope he can keep it up, but I just think Ramirez is the Cub’s best pure hitter and has been for several years.
If it is one AB, and the Cubs need a single, double or homerun to win, I want Ramirez up there as my number one choice.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
One thing we all got our first taste of
when he hit the Grand Slam off of Dontrelle Willis in the NLCS…
…Aramis Ramirez has a flair for the dramatic.
"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill
by Goodie1969 on Oct 23, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the several walkoffs and game-winners he's had in the last three years.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ramirez may be more clutch
but Lee has shown an ability to dominate consistently now for two of his Cub seasons.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I really have no idea what either one is going to do next year. But those two big years Lee had are undoubtedly better than anything Aramis has done.
by shoemile on Oct 23, 2009 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
See Aramis’ numbers from 2006: .291, 38 HR, 119 RBI. That was better than what Lee did this season. Look at Rami’s numbers from 2004-2008, much better than Lee’s numbers over the same time period, and more consistent.
by tripdenten on Oct 24, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hence why I wasn't talking about over a time period, just specific years
in 2006 Aramis’ ops was 912. This year Lee’s ops was 972. I don’t see much of a debate here.
by shoemile on Oct 24, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do
OPS is an overrated statistic, Milton Bradley led all of baseball in OPS in 2008, Lee has not consistently produced or “dominated” anything, he is a good player. but the bottom line is that Ramirez is a better and more consistent run producer. Lee having two nice seasons four years apart is nothing special. To be considered a better hitter than Rami, he’ll have to be more consistent. Hopefully, he will continue to play at this high level.
by tripdenten on Oct 25, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course Ramirez is a more consistent "run producer."
He gets to bat behind Derek Lee! Lee gets to bat behind the number 2 hitter (which back in the Dusty Baker era included such marvels as Neifi Perez.)
by cwyers on Oct 25, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wins are hard to project
Mostly because they’re a meaningless statistic.
by Wreckard on Oct 23, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's odd ...
that James predicts so much offense from the Cubs but so few wins by the team’s starters. Wins are an odd stat — but generally, pitchers win more when the offense scores for them.
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't really look...
… but maybe the relief pitchers got more wins. Individual wins don’t mean that much in this era of specialization.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't pay attention to a projection for win totals
If the offense is projected to be so good, and the aggregated ERA of the rotation, as shown above, is 3.84; I guarantee that the starters will have a lot more than 12 wins max.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh.
Cubs starters had a 3.71 ERA in 2009. Yet no Cub starter won more than 12 games. Just because of the poor offense? I guess, but wins could go to relievers, too.
Team wins are what matters.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs offense was pretty miserable last year
As you can see, it projects to be much better this year, so the pitchers win totals will go up. The Cubs look like a pretty damn good team next year, just gotta get some bullpen help.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I was so confused.
Great years offensively usually equates to more Ws for pitchers.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Oct 23, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think projections are concerned with accurately predicting individual win totals
Mainly because they don’t really matter. So they don’t consider the fact that the Cubs offense is much better, or should be much better, when projecting win totals.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Young?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind - just realized you probably meant Michael Young.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it was Dennis DeYoung?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 24, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
♪♫ I-eeeeeeeeeem sailing a-weyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ♪♫
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 26, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lee outhitting Aramis? I would love to see those two have those kind of seasons.
And that pitching projection lineup is pretty crappy. 12 wins is the best we can do from a starter?
I’d take Granderson, Young, or Beltran. The rest look like carbon copies of players we already have.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Oct 23, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What you have to realize is...
…that the projection is the median of what’s expected. IOW, each of those pitchers has a certain chance of, say, winning 15 games, to where AS A GROUP is is likely that one of them will, but it’s difficult to say which one. Certainly guys like Zambrano are more likely than guys like Wells. But pitcher wins depend on a lot out outside variables (offensive/bullpen support, etc.) and are a lot harder to predict than things like K and BB rate.
by cwyers on Oct 23, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't...
… the James prediction system take into account the (presumed) players who are going to be on the team, the projected runs they will score, and the projected runs allowed by the (presumed) pitchers who are going to be on the team, to calculate projected pitcher wins?
Maybe they do; the book doesn’t really explain the system.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even on the same team...
…the amount of offensive support a pitcher gets tends to vary greatly, mostly at random.
And shouldn’t they? They should, sure. But I doubt they do. I don’t know how it is this year, but there have been problems in years past where the hitter projections and pitcher projections don’t reconcile – in other words, the hitters are expected to hit more home runs than the pitchers are expected to allow.
(As background – James does not believe in projecting pitchers; others at BIS do pitcher projections that are included in the Handbook, but the people doing the two projections don’t interact AFAICT.)
by cwyers on Oct 23, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that make the projections invalid, somehow?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, you're right Colin on the median point.
I shouldn’t have used just wins; there is nary a 200 K nor a 200 IP pitcher in the group, either, which surprised me.
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Oct 23, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There are very few players who are actually projected to pitch over 200 innings
Only guys like Sabatathia, Wainwright, Halladay, etc. are projected to do so.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
36 starting pitchers threw 200 or more innings in 2009.
How many did James project for 2010? I didn’t count, but it couldn’t have been anywhere near that many.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, you're right
There are probably 10-15 pitchers projected for over 200 innings. The main reasons are regression (pitchers who pitch 200 innings one year generally had a great year, and those players tend to get worse the next year, thus pitch fewer innings) and injury risk.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 23, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but...
.. the number of pitchers throwing 200 innings or more has been pretty stable for a few years now (2006: 45, 2007: 38, 2008: 34, 2009: 36), so to have that drop to 10-15 seems just plain wrong.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It still boils down to Colin's point about median numbers
If you look at the number of pitchers who pitched 200 innings in EACH of those years than the number is likely a lot smaller
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Oct 23, 2009 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not the # of pitchers who do it
It’s the problem in picking which ones will do it. Only a dozen are so pitchers I’d feel confident betting they are likely to hit 200 IP.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I see what you two mean.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 24, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to factor in the chance of missing the majority of the season...
…to some kind of injury, if nothing else.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Al!
Thanks for posting this. I love this sort of stuff and it was just the distraction I was wanting. If only next year wasn’t so far away! :(
by CubsWin!Oregon on Oct 23, 2009 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You don't have to type it out if you don't want to, but
I’d be curious how Fontenot and Baker compare to DeRosa in their projections.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 23, 2009 2:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lest we feel downcast about the Cubs possibilities next year...
I thought I’d pass along James’s projections for the Giants (via McCovey Chronicles).
The commentary to go along with them is pretty funny.
by CubsWin!Oregon on Oct 23, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yowza
Combined projected wins for Z, Lilly, Demp & Wells is 45? That 5th starter better be a candidate for the Cy Young if James is right and the Cubs will contend for anything.
As for the possible swaps, all of the CF’s are a better option than MB and allow Dome back to RF, though I’m scared of the Wells contract.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 23, 2009 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
How did James' projections compare with the Cubs' numbers in 2009?
Has anyone looked at that? I’d be interested to see Fnt
by elgato on Oct 23, 2009 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what O.Hudson
numbers are projected at. He has stated he will not be back in L.A., read that today in the USA. I would like him at second.
by Grockcubs on Oct 23, 2009 4:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No thanks.
He’s the NL version of Chone Figgins — someone who a team will gladly overpay. Let it be someone else.
Ask yourself this: if Hudson is so good, why was Ronnie Belliard at 2B during the playoffs?
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
he lasted until, If I am not mistaken, February of 09 until he signed with the Dodgers for a 1 year deal. I doubt if he will get any multi year offers. To me he is an upgrade over Fontenot, Blanco, Miles combo. Now if there other options out there fine, but I think a upgrade at second is needed.
by Grockcubs on Oct 23, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
. To me he is an upgrade over Fontenot, Blanco, Miles combo. Now if there other options out there fine, but I think a upgrade at second is needed.
so is baker and he is cheaper
"hey
by jesus christos on Oct 23, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be honest
and my mistake I for some reason forgot about Baker. How could I, I don’t know. He did play well since coming over from the Rockies. I don’t know for some reason I like O. Hudson.
We will see, Good catch, my bad.
by Grockcubs on Oct 23, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont know the differences between baker and o dawg in defense
but they would probably put up similar numbers offensively
"hey
by jesus christos on Oct 23, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find that comparison kinda odd
a) No one had huge interest in Hudson last year … and he somewhat struggled to end the year.
b) Two different types of players – offensively (and defensively).
c) Most people think Hudson is on the hard downward slope, while Figgins is expected to age well. Hudson’s defense is slipping as well.
I think these are two different players, and that they will generate two different markets this offseason. I expect the bidding on Figgins to be hot and heavy … and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hudson lasted quite awhile on the market, perhaps signing a one year deal again.
by toonsterwu on Oct 23, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ricketts family taking over Cubs next week!
by china423 on Oct 23, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
....
"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things." ~Winston Churchill
by Goodie1969 on Oct 23, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
umm... you do know what the next line is in that little ditty, don't you? ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Oct 23, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 23, 2009 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Feel free to steal it.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 24, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add it to the BCB Flickr group.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 24, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How are these done?
Is this the system that takes the average of the last three years and uses that as a projection? Regardless of what system that one is, it’s awful.
by kanderber on Oct 23, 2009 6:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's Marcel
It weights the years and adds in a little regression and aging, but it’s basically a weighted average. Surprisingly (or perhaps not so surprisingly) it does a decent job, considering. It’s used as a baseline for the other projection systems
People should remember that while they have the right to their opinion, they are not entitled to be taken seriously. -- Bruce Bartlett
by berselius on Oct 23, 2009 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
get rid of Bradley
Milton Bradley was horrible with the cubs. We should get a good deal out of this trade.
by brians rams on Oct 26, 2009 3:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Bad Karma
I just got The Bill James Handbook in the mail today. That is one big book of numbers. I flipped open the book to a random page. What did I hit? Milton Bradley on the top of the page…Is that bad karma or what?
by RiskyBusiness on Oct 30, 2009 7:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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