I’m not sure it’s a debate at this moment for most top prospect lists. Right now, there’s an outside shot that Castro is this year’s Tommy Hanson – a player who went to AFL and elevated himself from a good to great prospect. Still has a lot of work to do and is more raw than Hanson last year, if one can compare them. Everyone focused on Keith Law’s comments on his power and comp to Soriano – perhaps the more impressive comment to me was that Law indicated that he could hit same side breaking balls. Castro went in as probably a 26-50 prospect. There’s an outside shot that you’ll see him pop up on top 25 lists. Some reports have him as a 70 arm and a 70 speed … which is simply insane. I don’t expect him to use those wheels that much, particularly if the power develops. As I’ve said before, even if the power doesn’t develop, this is still a top shortstop talent with plus contact ability, good glove. If the power develops, then this is easily one of the elite prospects in the game. For all the comparisons to Andrus at midseason, as a prospect, I’m not sure the two really compare anymore at similar points anymore.

I think the debate we’ll see this offseason is more on the 3rd-5th spots in the system. While Jim Callis is arguing for Brett Jackson as the 2nd best prospect, I’ll be surprised if many others agree, as knowledgeable and well-informed as Callis is. I expect Vitters to be the 2nd prospect, but there’s a chance he’ll slip down the boards on some top 100 lists. I’d look for him in that 51-70 area. That said, he looks real good. The swing’s nice and relaxed, there’s good explosion. It just sounds so good off his bat. Everything’s there … except the patience, but that was never going to change at AFL anyways. He’s there simply to get AB’s.

Anyhow, I think the debate will be on the 3rd-5th spots in the system, where Jay Jackson, Andrew Cashner, Brett Jackson, and Hak-ju Lee will be in the mix, with Carpenter likely on the outside for most (although I think I’ll end up with Carpenter 6th in my own list). At the end of the day, there was very little that Cashner could do at AFL that could change my mind about him. Short of it is, we knew he had a plus-plus fastball and that the slider had plus potential. Reports indicate that he’s been more consistent on it, but he hasn’t used it as much as before. That’s the problem for me – I need to see more out of Cashner – innings, pitches, and so forth, and AFL wasn’t going to do it for him because of the strict pitch limits he’s on. Everyone keeps beating on how Cashner could help us next year – it’s possible, but if the Cubs are intent on his SP development, I have some questions, because he’ll have to be more consistent with the slider, improve the change, and get extended. I still have Jay Jackson ahead, although I can buy an upside acknowledgment for Cashner.

Because it’s the AFL, I don’t worry too much about hits off pitchers. Parker’s been fine for the most part, and the fb velo is there. He looks to be an excellent middle reliever, and a possible setup/closer candidate. This isn’t Greg Reinhard we’re talking about – Parker’s got good stuff. I think the AFL experience shows us that Gaub doesn’t have that borderline plus-LOOGY ability and is probably just a LOOGY. He may be out of gas, as Slam notes. That said, whereas during the summer there was a huge need for a young lefty to be ready, I’ll be surprised if Gaub starts the year with us with Grabow/Marshall/Gorzelanny as options.

James Russell is the most frustrating arm for me to follow in our system. Why? Good, plus change. Good curveball. Solid fastball velocity that tops out the low 90’s. That’s a real solid arsenal … particularly for lefties. And yet … he hasn’t found his groove anywhere yet. Don’t be surprised if he’s back starting next year, with the lefty arm depth we have in the bigs/AAA area. As an ITI interview indicated, it’s been more an issue of fb command, which sort of perplexes me because of his bloodlines.

I get the feeling that Castillo is an afterthought for most right now. I saw one Cubs prospect list the other day that dropped him down to the 20’s (26?) which just befuddled me. He’s still a very promising catcher that showed solid progress for me this year.

give up on Vitters as a 3rd baseman yet and I bet the Cubs havent either. With his power if he doesnt play 3rd, what so bad about LF or 1B, especially given the fact we might be able to push a few shortstops towards 3rd base. I do agree nji that Castro is the man right now but I wouldnt pronounce Vitters a goner either.

while waiting on my car, and I noticed Jason Churchill, who is typically low on Cubs talent, called Castro the best talent in AFL. I guess the 70 speed/70 power comments I heard might’ve been linked to Churchill, as he made similar comments. I’ve had my disagreements with Churchill in the past, as I think he overhypes Mariners talent a bit, as he’s a Mariners first guy. That said, I respect his knowledge and sources, as he’s quite well-informed, and he’s got real solid all around knowledge on the minors.

I’ve defended Vitters elsewhere, and I still will, but at the end of the day, even if Castro’s power doesn’t develop, we’d still be comparing an AS shortstop vs. a potential AS corner IF that can probably stick at 3rd early. For the most part, unless I have a stud shortstop, I’d take the potential AS shortstop. It is, in the end, comparing potential, so who knows, but Castro takes more walks now (if you go SSS on the AA performance, his A+ walk rate was still twice that of Vitters). Actually, it isn’t the walks that are a gigantic issue, it’s the lack of pitches Vitters takes. I believe it was around 3.2 or 3.3 P/PA … and that ain’t good.

Right now, it seems that

a) Ceiling – Castro probably has more ceiling. There’s more projection to that ceiling, but that ceiling seems higher. Actually, considering the arm strength, if he somehow outgrows short, or if Lee forces him out, sliding Castro to 3rd is something to ponder (though I still prefer Castro at short and Lee in CF if Castro holds it down). Even in comparing power, we’re talking Vitters potential plus power versus Castro’s potential above average power. Considering Castro’s advantage in athleticism, his stronger and more consistent arm than Vitters, his speed, and his contact ability, I think ceiling goes his way as well.

b) Floor – Castro has a higher floor as well.

I’ll still defend Vitters, though. I was never the biggest Vitters fan. Liked him, but didn’t get all that excited. It’s somewhat ridiculous how some folks want to dump him off top 100 lists after his injury-filled 2nd half after folks saying he was solid top 40 after his low A performance. Best way to say his defense is that he might be Aramis Ramirez with the Pirates – a guy that could be decent enough to stick.

That said, the only thing this year really showed me about Vitters is that, he’s not an elite prospect in that he needs time (and AB’s) to make adjustments. He deserves every chance to show that ability, as the ceiling is high enough to warrant a longer look. Watching his AFL swing, there’s just so much to like. The wrists, the relatively compact motion, the smooth stroke. It’s just so nice and easy, and explosive. Heck, the AFL swing seems much better than when he was at Peoria. That said … unless he’s an exception to the rule, he has to take more pitches. He’ll get murdered (unless he’s a special exception … and I don’t bet on exceptions) as he moves up if he doesn’t try to be more patient. That’s a gigantic issue, the biggest issue for him, because his success is off of his instincts, and trying to force patience may diminish instincts. That’s the number one priority the Cubs have to try and figure out this offseason, IMO. They didn’t really succeed with Colvin, but Colvin had less of a ceiling. Can they get Vitters to balance a tiny bit more patience without harming his instincts?

The Cashner debate for the 3rd spot might be a bit tighter than I had it entering AFL. Entering AFL, I had Jay Jackson as the clearcut 3, but Cashner’s getting real good raves about his movement on his breaking ball. Still … the changeup needs to show more and he hasn’t gone that deep, so I’m inclined to still lean Jackson. I think folks have largely missed the changes on Jackson this year – he was running it in the low-mid 90’s with more consistency, and was able to reach back and run it up into the upper 90’s on occasions (obviously won’t sit there). With 2 good breaking balls and a potentially average changeup, that’s a deep, good arsenal for a starter.

nji, I think I mentioned in another thread, but I would watch for Jackson to perhaps be called up for the pen midseason. I imagine he’ll start in Iowa, with Cashner/Carpenter in Tennessee.

In the same way I liked Dan McDaniel last year. Here’s hoping McNutt turns out better (and here’s hoping Dan McDaniel can get back on track … ).

I hope Kenny succeeds, and I partiuclarly hope that Kenny can keep his velocity while working longer.

Keep in mind that McDaniels’ peak velocity last year, out of the pen and in limited innings, was similar to what McNutt threw this year in limited innings (both in the mid 90’s, McNutt can probably run it in there a bit more consistently). Furthermore, McDaniel went to his 2 seamer quite a bit as it generated better movement. Also, McDaniel’s secondary stuff last year was probably superior to McNutt’s secondary this year (McDaniel’s curve last year was considered a potential plus pitch by some that saw him), and overall, the Dan McDaniel at the end of last year had a deeper arsenal than Kenny McNutt does now (McDaniel had an effective 2 seamer that he mixed last year with a 4 seamer and his curve, while also .throwing in a slider that was passable and a change).

There is still some statistical support to think that McDaniel could turn it around. I’m not sure what happened – he got off to a good start, but it seemed like the stuff collapsed as the season progressed. Was it a workload issue? Was there an injury (although I ahven’t heard of one)? I hope McNutt turns out differently, and I hope Dan can bounce back next year, although in general, I was pleased that the Cubs tried him as a starter this year, after winter spec suggesting otherwise.