More From the Cubs in Winter Ball

Anyhow, I gotta finish my Cubs prospect list up in the next few weeks. This is basically the same post I made in the other thread. This is my rough top 15. May make a couple changes in the 11-15 area. Top 7 is pretty much set. Grades and quick comments, which will be expanded when I get a chance to work on it more and make it into a post. I’m debating a Top 30 or a Top 50 list this year to post.

1. Starlin Castro, B+. Here’s this year’s Tommy Hanson. He went to AFL, and his status went from great to potentially elite. The expectations are ridiculous now – above average power, solid to plus glove, excellent contact ability. Here’s hoping it comes to fruition, but what people are overlooking is that, if he simply maintains his contact ability and has a solid glove, this would be a potential AS shortstop anyways. There’s spec that Castro’s status may impact this offseason’s plans in some respects. He might crack some top 25 lists, but should be safely in the top 50. I’m guessing he starts in AA, but he should see time in Iowa next year, and could see time in the bigs. Don’t be absolutely stunned if the Cubs bring him up at midseason and ease him in by putting him in at 2nd base. A lot will depend on how the season goes. There was a 70 speed/70 arm report, which is just awesome ability, even if that seems a tad higher than other places.

2. Josh Vitters, B. He’s taken a bit of a beating. The flaws were always there, so it’s ridiculous for some folks to say that he was a top 50 prospect at midseason, and now, a borderline top 100 (and some minor league fans are making that claim). He was a bit overhyped on the Peoria performance, but he’s being a bit overly bashed now. The number 1 thing is to improve his discipline. That said, his AFL swing has been sweet, to say the least. Nice and easy, compact motion, and the wrists simply explode into the ball. Keeps a good plane. That said, he can’t survive at his current discipline rates. The walks are troublesome, but the more bothersome aspect is how few pitches he sees (3.2 or 3.3 P/PA). Maybe he’s an exception to the rule, but betting on exceptions is the fool’s gamble. If you look for him on top 100 prospect lists, he’ll probably sit in the 50-80 area. He’ll likely start in Daytona. Being in Daytona for most of the year isn’t the worst thing. I’d rather see them force him to adjust.

3. Jay Jackson, B. I imagine most of the other prospect lists will stick with Andrew Cashner here on account of his AFL performance. I’ll explain my Cashner thoughts later. While Cashner has a higher ceiling, Jackson is more consistent right now with his slider, and has a solid curveball and the change could be average. There’s still no serious mechanical issues (when I saw him, everything was nice and easy, and the control was fine … not great, but fine). The fastball, as expected, improved his velocity this year, and he sits more comfortably in the low-mid 90’s, while being able to run it into the upper 90’s if he reaches back. Okay, there are problems. I’m hoping the character issue is one of youth. I’m not sure what happened to the control, but it collapsed in his last month at AA. To the best of my understanding, after checking on it, he simply might’ve been overthrowing for some reason, which young pitchers are prone to do on occasion. If he makes top 100 lists, he’ll be on the back end, from 80-100. Look for him to start in AAA, and he should be up with the Cubs at some point, barring a collapse.

4. Andrew Cashner, B. He has the most ceiling in the Cubs system on the pitching side. With a plus-plus fastball, if he tightens up the rest, watch out. So don’t view the comments as a negative. He clearly struggled in AA, where he wasn’t able to dominate off the fastball. The slider wasn’t as consistent. Change showed improvement. Here’s the thing – he’s shown slider improvement in AFL, but I need a bigger sample size. The bigger issue is … can he be a starter? He made strides this year, but he was on pitch counts … and he still is in Arizona. I’m loathe to move him up the board until I get a definitive view on that, as I value starting pitching for more to pen arms. Look for him to start in AA … and he could be there for most of the year.

5. Hak-Ju Lee, B/B-. The potential is great, but the hype may be getting slightly ahead of the ability. It’s noticeable that some folks prefer a raw shortstop, like Jiovanni Mier, over Hak-ju, despite Mier still in the early infant stages of his career. A ton of projection left, and there may be some power. Plus speed (the esteemed AzPhil has said he is faster than Campana, who is blazing fast). Could be a solid fielder. There’s an advanced hitting approach. His offensive comparison may be similar to Che-Hsuan Lin with the Red Sox, if people want a possible model to look at (look at Lin’s adjusted lines). He can generate more power with a swing change, but I prefer him to stay the way he is. If he makes top 100 lists, he should be on the back end, anywhere from 70-100 perhaps. He should start in Peoria, where a bunch of Koreans are likely to be there (Rhee, Kim perhaps, Na perhaps, Jung perhaps).

6. Chris Carpenter, B/B-. Stuff was never an issue for this Carpenter either. With a fastball that can get into the mid-90’s and a plus breaking ball, ability was never a question. The change improved this year, but the question was always health. Well, so far, so good. Change and health are the two keys to watch next year. Look for him to start in AA, with a chance to be in AAA and/or the bigs later in the year. I don’t expect him on top 100 lists.

7. Brett Jackson, B-/B. On ability, he could go higher. I actually, unlike many others, was fine with this pick, but part of me thinks that Jim Callis is singlehandedly overhyping him (half joking). There’s a lot to love – the potential to stick in CF with a good arm, speed, some power. The K’s are still something to watch. I think he’ll start in A+ in 2010, with a shot to be in AA later in the year. He could perhaps range from 80-150ish on many prospect lists.

8. Kyler Burke, B-/C+. He had a monster year, he has monster potential, and he’s still young. He looks like a ballplayer as well. He has good OF range for RF (can pinch in CF), he has power, a strong arm (one of the best in the system) and for a power hitter, his discipline is fine. Has to generate more power against lefties. I think, and rightfully so, people want to see him at the next level, A+, after being at A. But he’s a guy that could move rapidly in a year. Look for him to start in A+. If he does well, AA is possible.

9. Ryan Flaherty, B-/C+. I actually wasn’t the biggest fan of him last year. He had some bad luck early, but he really had an excellent year, while closing his swing down. Development should count for something. If the contact ability he showed late is real, then he could be scary good. On power and defense alone, he’s a solid middle infield prospect. There are some statistical questions that can be raised, which I will get to later. ARL doesn’t bother me as much, as Daytona fell out so some guys that normally would’ve made a Peoria to Daytona trek didn’t. I think, as do many Cubs fans, that he will be in AA next year, although he could be manning third (3rd’s a bit empty and Vitters likely will stay at Daytona to start, barring a surprise). Could be a mover and shaker next year if he has a strong year.

10. Dae-Eun Rhee, *. I’ve always said that, if he came back and was throwing late in the year, I’d give him a “draft pick” nod. The potential is great – on potential ability, he may be the best arm in the system. He showed 3 solid pitches last year. Health is a big factor, particularly since there were questions before as to whether or not his frame could handle starting. Look for him to be in Peoria for much of the year.

11. Tyler Colvin, C+. He finished strong in AA, despite rehabbing at the start of the year and banging with Campana after he came back. Look for him to start in Iowa and be called up periodically.

12. DJ LeMahieu, C+. AzPhil has suggested that DJ could be fast tracked at 2nd base. I’ll be curious where he goes. I’m anticipating Daytona, but not sure. He’s a passable-solid shortstop who could be a good defensive 2nd baseman. The power is an issue. I don’t anticipate it developing without swing work, and I’m not sure it’s worth it if it risks sapping his contact ability (thin Murton).

13. Logan Watkins, C+. Former prep QB showed an advanced approach. He’s a good clubhouse guy who profiles as a top of the order possibility. Could be tried as an OF, and is an intriguing X-factor in our system. Bruce Miles has indicated that his Cubs sources are really high on him. He should be in Peoria next year, somewhat groomed with Lee.

14. Chris Archer, C+. Excellent year where the changeup showed improvement, and he still had a plus curve and a good low-mid 90’s fastball. Control is still an issue, and the delivery has made some question if he’s better off in the pen, allowing him to power his stuff through. He should be in Daytona’s rotation to start 2010.

15. Welington Castillo, C+. He had bad luck early, and finished strong offensively. Defense reportedly showed improvement (only saw him once, so that’s 2nd hand commentary). If he develops, could be anywhere from Henry Blanco-ish to Bengie Molina-ish. More work is needed, but he will likely be in Iowa (perhaps DH’ing when he’s not catching). Defense is the key, and if it gets better, he could be a factor in 2011.

Three quick thoughts:

1. The Cubs are … a positionally oriented system. Shocking isn’t it? After the top tier of arms, things drop off on the arm side a bit. I expect 2010 to focus on pitching early.

2. Love the direction of the system. Good diversity of skills in the system. Someone critiqued the system as lacking speed midseason. We have speed – the question is if they develop baseball ability that moves them up. But guys like Lee, Campana, Guzman, Valdez, and others are solid potential top of the order guys.

3. Love the up-the middle focus. We knew we’d get that with Wilken. Catcher’s a bit weak, but overall, the up-the-middle ability is solid.

Side comments:

a) I like the system, but I’m no fool. This isn’t an elite system. Certainly, even an elite system doesn’t mean much unless talent develops, but we still need more talent.

b) I try to judge on a variety of factors. Potential matters. Performance matters. Floor matters.

c) While I attend games, at the end of the day, I always say I’m a fan first. (Heck, I got to games for fun … don’t have any visions of being a scout.) This is a fan’s opinion more than anything. There are folks, like Raisin, O_O, Slam, that may have far more knowledge of the Cubs system than me. There are folks that could run me into the ground in a statistical debate.