Tell Your Statistics To Speak Up
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 1:28 PM CDT
in Meta BCB
86 comments
Over the four and a half years that BCB has been in existence, many discussions and debates have taken place here over the value of statistical analysis in baseball.
Despite what you may think, I am not anti-statistics, nor anti-intellectual. I am fully aware of the value of modern advanced metrics, what they are, and how they can be used. However, I believe they are not an end in and of themselves; they need to be used in conjunction with scouting techniques and other forms of analysis of people.
With that said, I realize that many people here do enjoy discussion of advanced metrics and how they apply to baseball situations and in particular, the Cubs. Since I admit that statistical analysis is neither something I am that comfortable in doing myself, nor do I have the time to do detailed studies, I am pleased to announce that as of today, I am adding BCB reader shawndgoldman (whose name, as you likely could guess from his user name, is Shawn Goldman) to the staff to do stat-oriented pieces.
I've given Shawn free rein to write about any topic he chooses. He'll post on an occasional basis during the offseason and likely more often as the 2010 season comes closer and begins next April. Shawn does excellent analysis and, as you saw in his post comparing Milton Bradley to a salesman from a month or so ago, he also writes and explains his methodology well.
Please join me in welcoming Shawn to the BCB front-page staff and I know we'll all learn much from his posts.
Here's something we can also chew on while the long off-season begins. This isn't statistical analysis per se, but I wanted to post some of the Cubs' W-L splits from 2009, because they seem odd to me in several ways, and wondered if any of you have any ideas as to why certain things happened the way they did -- not just for the team, but for some individual players in particular.
The Cubs were 47-32 against the NL Central in 2009. That's the best record for any team in the National League within its own division, slightly better than the Reds and Cardinals, who were 46-34. Why, then, could the Cubs post only a 30-37 mark outside the division? Of the other ten teams, three of them were 90+ loss clubs (Mets, Nationals, Diamondbacks). But the Cubs were only 9-10 against those bad teams, while going 10-4 against the 99-loss Pirates.
The Cubs were also 44-33 in day games, but 39-45 in night games. The 84 night games played (would have been 85 if not for Thursday's rainout) is about 20 fewer than most teams; I assume that sometime soon, new ownership will petition the city to amend the current night game ordinance to allow perhaps 10 more home night games, with permission to schedule maybe 3 or 4 a year on Friday nights after road trips. The Cubs were the only team in baseball with a winning record in 2009 to have a losing record in night games. Why is this? Is it simply a one-year anomaly? (The 2007 Cubs, whose 85-77 record was similar to this year's, were 42-39 in night games and last year's team was 49-35.)
We are all aware of the bizarre day/night splits of Rich Harden (6-4, 2.81 in 14 daylight starts, 3-5, 5.93 in 12 night game outings), as well as his home/road troubles (3-7, 5.99 in 15 home starts, 6-2, 2.00 in 11 road starts). Why did this happen? Ted Lilly had just the reverse problem: 8-2, 1.87 in 13 starts at Wrigley, 4-7, 4.41 in 14 starts on the road. Are these one-year freaks? Or something to look out for next season?
Anyway, those seemed interesting to me; pick 'em apart, and soon Shawn will make his first front-page BCB post. Again, welcome, Shawn!
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I'll post something later on...
that I hope helps all of you realize where I’m coming from, and why I lean on statistics so much when evaluating players and teams. I think we’re going to have some useful discussions in the future, and I look forward to them.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 1:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hello to you
I’m very interested in what stats you are going to bring up. I’m not much of a stat person myself, I i’ll learn what I can from you.
by Cubbiegoon on Oct 5, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say there is a 97% chance you will post something later...
good luck.
"Truth hurts. Maybe not as much as jumping on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts." - Leslie Nielson
by LAcarl519 on Oct 5, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how can you make a prediction like that when we currently have a sample size of 0!
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella
by El Borto on Oct 5, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a very good point.
I could flake out and not post anything. :-)
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
given the limited sample size, I used a sample sized based on Al's ability to pick talent
and came up with a 3% failure rate for Al’s ability to pick staff. Therefore, I used that failure correlation to determine Shawn’s probability of success.
"Truth hurts. Maybe not as much as jumping on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts." - Leslie Nielson
by LAcarl519 on Oct 5, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say it's exactly 50-50 that Shawn posts something.
Either he will or he won’t. That’s 50-50 in my book ;)
"Pain don't hurt you none" - Sparky Anderson (1987)
Obviously Sparky was never a Cubs fan...
by Zeke on Oct 5, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congrats Shawn
This is like the Medal of Honor for BCB
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway,' but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies." - Mike Royko
by DTJchris on Oct 5, 2009 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Al extends the olive branch.
This is great news – looking forward to reading your stuff, Shawn, and learning a thing or three.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 5, 2009 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs
rec'd
this is cool and something that all can benefit from.
Congrats Shawn.
by socalbob on Oct 5, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Second the rec
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Oct 5, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs were also 44-33 in day games, but 39-45 in night games.
Without looking at it, my guess is that there’s a home/road seleciton bias at work here. The Cubs play most of their day games at home, and therefore you’d expect their record in day games to be better.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 1:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd have to look deeper into the record...
… to see how it split home/road. Were they really that much better in home day games than road day games?
As I noted, they didn’t seem to have an extreme split like this the last two years. In fact, the crappy 2006 team was better in night games (35-44) than in day games (31-52).
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, this year at least
the Cubs home record was 46-34 and their night record was 37-44. That’s pretty close to the day/night splits from this year. I think the home/road split is a better explanation for the difference than day/night split is.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, the 2009 Cubs...
… had one of the worst records in the NL in one-run games — 16-22. Only the Pirates were worse. That, obviously, has a lot to do with Kevin Gregg.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC
1-run records should roughly follow a team/s RS/RA. The deviations speak towards luck and bullpen performance and management of the bullpen. I wouldn’t put much on Lou, because frankly the whole bullpen was putrid for most of the season. So you’re right, it’s mostly on the pen and a large part of that is on Gregg. There’s also a bit of bad luck at play there.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone know the Cubs record vs. Rhp and Lhp?
by Cubbiegoon on Oct 5, 2009 1:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
67-62 vs. RH starters, 16-16 vs LH starters.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i guess we need to get more left handed!
Geovany Soto is the new 2008 Derrek Lee
by jesus christos on Oct 5, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on those records, we apparently need to get more RIGHT handed.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley
(Sarcasm) Gameboard hits better from the right side. He is exactly what the Cubs need in 2010.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Oct 5, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but if we were left handed
wed be 62-5 against lefties!
Geovany Soto is the new 2008 Derrek Lee
by jesus christos on Oct 5, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stat I want you to check for me
Ok so Fuld was like the first guy since 1920 to have 70 plus ABs without an RBI but he also had 17 walks to 10Ks
Can you find me someone comparable to that ratio with around 100 ABs who is not a power hitter ? Just wondering.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 5, 2009 1:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
There are some out there...
I’m not going to limit things to 100 AB’s.
You’re basically asking about players with a BB/K ratio of 1.7. Here’s your list:
http://www.fangraphs.com/careerleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=1&min=100
You can browse that list and find a few guys that had a BB/K ratio of 1.7 and not much power.
(If it doesn’t directly go there, you want to click on page 10 of that sorted list).
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am really bad at that stuff
I browsed through the NL this year and closet with about 200 AB was Carlos Ruiz but not as good as Fuld
FYI even though SMALL sample size Fuld did end up leading the Cubs in OBP. I would honestly say he hit ( and walked)
better than even I expected. If one actually thought he could hit .300 and walk that much over a full season I don’t think
it would be a problem that he has very little power.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 5, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here are the names of similar players
These are all the players who had a BB% of 17% or greater, and an ISO <= .113 (Fuld’s marks from this year). Not a one of them is close to a modern player, far as I can tell.
Herman Pitz, Eddie Shokes, Mickey Harris, Willie McGill, Gus Niarhos, Bob Prichard, Rasty Wright, Ed Mensor, Marty Hopkins, Glenn Gulliver, John Potts, John McGraw, Eddie Stanky, Jack Crooks, Roy Ellam, Bud Connolly, Ed Hogan, Bob Farley, Sammy Holbrook, Eddie Lake, Max Bishop, Tom Burgess, Dick Tettelbach, Ferris Fain, Mike Fiore, Josh Whitesell
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Oct 5, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Fiore played from 1968-1972.
Glenn Gulliver from 1982-1983, and Josh Whitesell last year and this year.
That’s about as “modern” as anyone on that list gets.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He plays the game the way it used to be played
Poorly.
by Wreckard on Oct 5, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Per the list, Stanky.
if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand
by N Oakley on Oct 5, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hi five!
Took me a second, but I got there.
"This next song... it's about the White Sox. It's called: F*** Em'." - Eddie Vedder
by PacificCub on Oct 6, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Whitesell???
You have got to be kidding. He is about as far from Sam Fuld as one could possibly be,
I was thinking more along the lines of Dustin Pedroia or Luis Castillo.
by azjazzman on Oct 5, 2009 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's the thing
as a 26 year-old in AA (very old for the league) he didn’t hit .300 (.270 avg, .360 OBP with a .381 slg) and as a 27 year-old in AAA (old) he didn’t hit .300 (.284 avg, .358 OBP, and .415 slg). So why (because of a 100 at bat sample?) do we think he will hit .300 at the MLB level? And be a meaningful contributor?
He’s a 5th OF who plays the game correct and that’s all. We can do better than him.
by socalbob on Oct 5, 2009 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he is a .300 hitter
but it was fun to see him way exceed MY expectations. He is VERY patient at the plate though and that can be pretty
useful. We can do better than him for what ? I think he is good a 4th/5th OF as you are gonna get. I am tired of guys who have some power but can’t field and swing at stuff that bounces in front of the plate. I mean if the Cubs pick up a power hitting SS or 2B I suppose you could let him platoon or play CF for more games but I see him as excellent bench player.
FYI he was 26 in AA because an injury got him demoted in 07.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 5, 2009 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he is not
an everyday player or even a platoon player. He will be a nice bench player. I thought you were clamoring for him to be given the job in CF when referenced “given a full season” in the post above. Sorry if I misunderstood you.
I am tired of guys who have some power but can’t field and swing at stuff that bounces in front of the plate.
Amen to that!
by socalbob on Oct 5, 2009 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I was kind of daydreaming
but realistically I think he is a terrific bench guy who should 1-2 starts a week to spell for Soriano, Dome etc. He should almost always be in for Soriano in the 8th & 9th inning if the Cubs have a short lead. I get the impression Fuld knows what his role is as well and hardly expects to be a starter.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 5, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like that role
for him 2010. He is certainly useful enough in that regard. Heck, I think he could even spell someone for 15-30 days if needed.
by socalbob on Oct 5, 2009 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what your saying is...
that Sam Fuld is equal to Babe Ruth?
The sun will shine in '69
by gaclaudy on Oct 5, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuld Between Dascenzo and Cotto
Fuld did play well in his brief stint with Chicago this season. I think he’s better than Doug Dascenzo was but not as good as Henry Cotto was. I don’t think Fuld can pitch like Dascenzo could. Dascenzo had that really slow curve ball.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Oct 5, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuld has a gun for an arm
It would be fun to see him pitch in a blowout.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 5, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome Shawn.
Recipe for Disaster;
C'mon Cubs, hurry up and blow this so I can relax.
by Bluekoolaide on July22, 2009 3:08 PM CDT
by sue369 on Oct 5, 2009 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the welcome, everyone!
But I gotta get some work done. I live on the West Coast, so I’ll often hang out here more late at night (as in after 5 PST, which is 7 CST) and on the weekends.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 2:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nerd content of BCB just went up 20 points or so
Chicagoan in the Lou.
by Mike Martin on Oct 5, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would have felt better if you rec'd my post
But the compliment will do.
Chicagoan in the Lou.
by Mike Martin on Oct 5, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With absolutely no statistical evidence to support my theory:
The Cubs were 47-32 against the NL Central in 2009. That’s the best record for any team in the National League within its own division, slightly better than the Reds and Cardinals, who were 46-34. Why, then, could the Cubs post only a 30-37 mark outside the division? Of the other ten teams, three of them were 90+ loss clubs (Mets, Nationals, Diamondbacks). But the Cubs were only 9-10 against those bad teams, while going 10-4 against the 99-loss Pirates.
With respect to inside or outside the division records, perhaps scouting and frequency of seeing and playing opponents in your own division accounts for some of the discrepancy. Also, what advance scouts cover what teams? Maybe they get better and more accurate information from some scouts as opposed to others they employ. Maybe that’s too simplistic, but I do subscribe to Acoms Razor: “The simplest solution tends to be the correct one.” (Thank you Big Bang Theory)
"Pain don't hurt you none" - Sparky Anderson (1987)
Obviously Sparky was never a Cubs fan...
by Zeke on Oct 5, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You can drive yourself nuts
with this stuff. Why does Cincinatti fo 46-34 vs the Central and 32-50 against everybody else (10-22 vs the West)? Why does Colorado go 31-11 vs the Central and 33-39 in their own division? Why do the Mets go 23-17 vs the Central and 14-21 vs the West? Why does Houston go 31-47 vs the Central and 21-15 vs the West?
Truth is, these are mostly one season anomalies that if you looked at 3 year or 5 year totals would flatten out.
by azjazzman on Oct 5, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with learning about important things from awful television shows
…is that spelling is not included.
In this case I think the simplest solution would “injuries” – a lot of out-of-division games were played in May and June (35 of them to be exact – more than half of them) when Aramis was out and Soriano started his injury-induced tailspin.
by Wreckard on Oct 5, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs only played 18
out of division NL games while Ramirez was out and they went 8-10 in those games.
by azjazzman on Oct 5, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, right my bad
I was using the wrong timeframe for that.
Given that out-of-division games tend to be grouped on the schedule though, I still think it’s easy to try and make sense of something that may be secondary to the real issue.
by Wreckard on Oct 5, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oddly enough...
… this year, the Cubs had many homestands and road trips that had games both inside and outside the division. The first road trip of the year was to Houston & Milwaukee. Then they had another trip to the same two cities a month later. Those were the ONLY two roadtrips of the year that were entirely within the NL Central.
Similarly, the Cubs had exactly two homestands all year (July 24-30, Cincinnati & Houston, and September 11-17, Cincinnati & Milwaukee), that had ONLY NL Central opponents.
It used to be arranged more logically; now you have bizarre road trips like the one at the beginning of August (Florida-Cincinnati-Colorado). About the only time the schedule makes sense is during the interleague period, where you play all interleague games for two weeks.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a little more diffuse than usual, definitely
And kind of non-sensical in the grouping.
But there still was grouping going on – 22 of the games in the Cubs miserable August were out-of-division. That’s 1/3rd of the out-of-division games, and they lost 15 of them.
That said it could be that playing out of division games is what made the Cubs’ August miserable.
by Wreckard on Oct 5, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes some sense.
Obviously, they played — and couldn’t beat — a tough Phillies team. It was losing games to the Mets and Nationals that helped do the Cubs in.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh
and the 19 games that Al referenced against 90+ loss teams where the Cubs went 9-10? Those all were played with Ramirez active. You could throw the Mets and Padres in there, too. The Cubs went 3-3 against the 92 loss Mets and 4-5 against the 87 loss Padres (with 3 of the 4 wins when Aramis was out).
By the way Al, I told you the Cubs would not sweep the D’Backs!
by azjazzman on Oct 5, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you were correct.
I still can’t figure it out.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I learned Occam's Razor from the Simpsons
Much mo’ betta.
"This next song... it's about the White Sox. It's called: F*** Em'." - Eddie Vedder
by PacificCub on Oct 6, 2009 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the title of the post...
and I thought you were going to ignite an already beaten-to-death subject once again Al.
I would like to say that I really like the decision to add a stats-oriented front page poster to the BCB staff. I think it speaks volume for you Al, as I have thought you to be a bit stubborn in the past on the subject. It gives me even more respect for you that you’re willing to add somebody full-time in a subject area that you’re not completely familiar with (I’m not all that savvy on the subject myself). Kudos Al.
by Kansas25 on Oct 5, 2009 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
You hit on the exact reason for doing this. Statistical analysis IS an important part of modern baseball analysis. Shawn is very good at it and also writes well in explaining his analysis. He’ll be a great addition to the site.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking forward to it
And I think it will make it easier for people with a clear stats or non-stats orientation to pick and choose their threads. When Josh posts something, we know it’s the place to go to discuss the minors. Now we have a similiar forum for discussion of stats. Good idea.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Oct 5, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am glad you said that....
about choosing your threads…altho I like reading what the stats-guys have to say, I dont understand-I’m embarrassed to say-most of it. I’ll be looking forward to a mix of both types of threads. BCB is where I go for my continuing education about my beloved Cubs and the great sport of Baseball…..Thanks Everyone!
by cooliogirl47 on Oct 5, 2009 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks to Al and welcome to Shawn!
Now if only Al could hire a professional scout to give us scouting reports, too.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Oct 5, 2009 4:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd prefer if the Cubs got first dibs on any professional scouts looking for a gig
They obviously need them.
"Who ever heard of the Cubs losing a game they had to have?" -Frank Chance
"If [Ruth] had [called his shot], I would have knocked him down with the next pitch." -Charlie Root
by Clutch16 on Oct 5, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Congratulations!
You now get the honor of getting press releases from everyone who wants you to write about their book, magazine, blog, article and sword-swallowing trick (OK, not the last one.)
Good to see the masthead expanding. Perhaps I can send you some minor league work.
by Josh77 on Oct 5, 2009 5:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to do some minor league stuff...
unfortunately, I don’t think it will be particularly useful. Sure, there are some stats I like more than others when looking at minor leaguers. But projecting the future MLB production of prospects is still an area that statistical methods (at least the publicly available ones) are not very good at.
That said, there are still some useful ones out there. I’ll definitely have things to say about various minor leaguers when it’s relevant.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congrats, Shawn.
I am not a particularly stat-minded individual myself (I still haven’t finished reading BBTN), so I rely on the efforts of folks like you, toonsterwu, Wreckard, and others to provide the analytical background with the numbers most of us don’t think about.
The thing I hope to see more of this season (here on BCB) is more teaching, and not so much lecturing. People going at each other is usually neither productive nor interesting, and is the main reason I stayed away from the tangible v. intangible bloodbaths. I hope you and others can help those of us who don’t fully grasp the intricacies or importance of advanced metrics to come to the knowledge on our own. Help us see why the numbers are right, don’t just tell us they are. You do that, man, and you’re golden! (Pun not intended but left in for purposes of facepalm humor.)
Good luck…
"Was you ever punched in the face five hundred times a night? It stings after a while." ~Rocky Balboa
by Goodie1969 on Oct 5, 2009 6:15 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
I agree with this sentiment:
The thing I hope to see more of this season (here on BCB) is more teaching, and not so much lecturing.
… and I hope to live up to that standard while here.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Both comments rec'd.
That’s exactly what I am hoping for as well, and why I chose Shawn for this spot.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
These two questions...
Why is this? Is it simply a one-year anomaly?
Are really important ones to ask, particularly the second one. Too often, people try to come up with an explanation for a phenomenon that has no cause but it just due to random variance. I think that is likely the case with a lot of the trends Al mentioned in the OP.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 6:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The conflict
between sabermetrics and those that don’t buy into it usually revolves about predictability. Obviously the team significantly fell below what was expected of them based upon numerous projections. It would be interesting to get into some discussions about the probability of those forward looking statistical models.
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
by tharr on Oct 5, 2009 6:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll take a look at that.
Uncertainty an error are a huge part of any quantitative field, and sabrmetrics is no exception.
by shawndgoldman on Oct 5, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand
the deviations of standard exist. However, personally I don’t feel they explain the actual extreme variances. They seem to underweight injuries and the other factors that exist every season with each team. For instance, team turnover can often make a difference. The failure of a closer can have a domino effect on an entire team. Injury to Ramirez makes a huge difference. Suppose Miles had been injured instead?
We have to admit that luck factors into a team’s fortune and sabermetrics cannot factor that into probability.
If you like Selig's handling of the steroid issue, you'll love his choice for next Cub owner.
by tharr on Oct 5, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how many days until opening day?
I'm a lefty, maybe Lou should give me a shot for a position in the bullpen!!
by Chanman25 on Oct 5, 2009 6:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
almost 182
Al has a count-down clock on the right sidebar.
by socalbob on Oct 5, 2009 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeabbut
how long until pitchers and catchers report?
by LT on Oct 5, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As soon as I get the exact dates...
… for that, and for the first spring training game, I’ll post them.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not soon enough :(
To eliminate exclusion, we cut out the differences to feel like we belong.
by heine41 on Oct 5, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Rich Harden was better at night?
Are you sure those statistics aren’t supposed to be flipped Al?
"Chicago Cubs fans are ninety percent scar-tissue." -George F. Will
by In Piniella We Trustiella on Oct 5, 2009 7:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice, awesome
I look forward to reading your stuff Shawn, and Kudos to Al for giving a somewhat opposing viewpoint a platform.
by vivaelpujols on Oct 5, 2009 8:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This is the kinda stuff I get into
Much better reading about Home/Road splits and who hits who better or worse, than the thousand or so fantasy owners ideas of making the Cubs better. Not to say that occasionally it’s fun to say what if, but I prefer to look at the reason the team we ahve is failing ( or not).
by GHCF2314 on Oct 5, 2009 8:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
YAY! STATS RULE!
I know you’re one of the elder BCB members, Shawn; you’ve been here even longer than I.
Quick question: Not to sound snooty, but what credentials do you have thus far? Interest in stats? Math major? I’m excited to hear more about you and some of your methodology, thanks for being here.
Dan
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
by dtpollitt on Oct 5, 2009 9:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Congrats Shawn...
…looking forward to your work.
Nobody cares about your fantasy baseball team
by carmen_fanzone on Oct 5, 2009 9:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally..
… the picture accompanying this post is Sam Fuld’s at-bat from yesterday, when he hit the HR. (Pitch 5).
Thought Jessica would like that.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Oct 5, 2009 9:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
NL Central vs Rest of the League
The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds had good records in the NL Central because their pitching ranked 4th, 5th and 7th in the league based on ERA. They had WHIPs of 1.30, 1.32 and 1.37 respectively. The other three teams in the division ranked 13th, 14th and 15th in the league and had WHIPs of 1.45, 1,45 and 1.47.
So, the ERAs for the teams in the other NL divisions all ranked somewhere 1-12 including 1st through 3rd with only the Nationals worse than the Astros, Pirates and Brewers. Combine better overall pitching with a Cub team that couldn’t hit and it’s like a match in the gas tank. It would be better to look at the pitching stats minus games against the Cubs especially for the NL Central, but I couldn’t find an easy way to do that.
Ramirez hits better in day games at home. Overall, playing better at home and playing better during the day probably overlap. For now, they should still play more during the day.
by AboutTheCubs on Oct 5, 2009 11:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
awesome
excited to have shawn on board. great move Al.
"Hello again, everybody. It's a bee-yooo-tiful day for baseball." -Harry Caray
by louisiana lumberman on Oct 6, 2009 12:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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