Rich Harden likely to be downgraded to Type B free agent by Elias

Per the handy chart in this MLBTR article, the Elias Sports Bureau is likely to downgrade Rich Harden from Type A free agent to a Type B free agent. (Go the bottom and click on the "NL SP" link.)

My question for those a little more versed the machinations of major league transactions is: How might this affect the likelihood that the Cubs may re-sign Rich? Does it at all? Would he be more apt to take a lower priced contract based on this development? And do teams get any type of draft picks for offering a Type B FA arbitration?

about 1 month ago dat cubfan daver 17 comments 0 recs |

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The Cubs' compensation would be less if Harden were to leave as a Type B Free Agent.

(and they offered arbitration)

I don’t know if Harden being rated a Type B FA would have any bearing on contract negotiations, but I remain optimistic that the Cubs can sign Harden to an incentive-laden 1-2 year contract, with escalators in the contract based upon Games Started.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 6, 2009 9:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I repeat my contention...

… that Harden would be best served by accepting arbitration and signing another one-year deal with the Cubs and then going to free agency again next off-season, when the economy should be better.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al on Oct 6, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like this would support that notion.

Plus, I believe Rich has gone on record as saying the training regimen he’s worked out with the Cubs has helped him stay healthy. And now that we know Rothschild will be back, Harden can stick with that program.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 6, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree.

And if the Cubs want to sign Rich to a low-risk, two-year contract, I’m fine with that, too. Given how Rich feels about the training staff (per Daver above), then I think the odds of Rich accepting arbitration are good.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 6, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd defintely support an effort to re-sign him to a reasonable deal.

Initial reports seem to indicate the Cubs have little intention of trying, but it seems like most of those arose from Paul Sullivan’s idle speculation.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 6, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can only hope!

by ak123 on Oct 6, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he would too

but the counter-argument is that it’s a weak class of free agent pitchers coming out this year with John Lackey and pretty much not much else that’s interesting. Next season, I believe, has the potential of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and maybe others being on the market.

by Josh77 on Oct 6, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And after we've won the World Series, you mean.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Oct 6, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would think this increases the likelihood of the Cubs offering arb

…since it increases Harden’s value in the free agent market (making it less tempting for Harden to accept).

That said, he’s a borderline case, and this is a reverse engineering of the Elias system so he’s probably within the margin of error.

It’s so hard to even know what Harden is worth on the open market that I’d have no idea whether or not to offer arb, or even know what to offer him in terms of a free agent deal (2 years, $15M + club option 3rd year for $8M? I really have no idea).

I’m glad Hendry has to make that decision, not me.

by Wreckard on Oct 6, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

any system

that has Ryan Dempster as the 3rd ranked SP in the NL is seriously flawed.

Harden is below Bronson Arroyo in this list. If it is a 2 year revolving system, there is no way harden drops that low when he mas the most dominant pitcher in the NL last year. And his full year numbers made him a Top 10 pitcher in all of baseball.

by socalbob on Oct 6, 2009 10:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the formula listed to determine the rankings...

…seems highly dubious. I’m guessing Harden’s relatively low innings pitched – despite his number of starts – and his low win total hurt him.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 6, 2009 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he still had 9 wins on .500 team

I think it’s the lower number of innings combined with total starts.

His WHIP and BAA were pretty close to career norms. It was his ridiculous spike in HR’s along with the funky day/night splits that were abnormal. I hope we can get him to accept arbitration for 1 year as I think he will perform better in 2010.

by socalbob on Oct 6, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

These formulas

were initially developed in the 1980s, when stats like BAA were unheard of and WHIP was a fantasy-sports only stat. They’ve been tweaked somewhat since then, but they still rely a lot on wins and losses, strikeouts and ERA for pitchers as well as RBI and runs scored for hitters.

I’d suspect winning only 20 games over the past three years was the #1 reason he got downgraded.

by Josh77 on Oct 6, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

what are the timelines. I’m assuming the disposition of Bradley’s $$$ will dictate the appetite for a little Rich.

If offering arb, when do they have to decide and when can Rich contemplate other offers? Asking curious how much time Hendry has to determine if it’s a full salary snack.

if this was still new to me, i wouldn't understand

by N Oakley on Oct 6, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clarification

This is not the Elias ranking, it is a reproduction using an algorithm that has been accurate in the past. MLBTR even explains that you should credit the author, because the Elias rankings aren’t out yet.

This is probably right, but I wouldn’t take it as definitive.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 6, 2009 11:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs