OT: Brewers re-sign Hoffman for $8M

over 2 years ago Shanghai Badger 31 comments 0 recs |

Comments

I thought about posting this news yesterday when it was announced.

Hoffman certainly had a successful year for the Brewers, and I believe he likes playing there. But I’d be interested in reading a sabermagician’s take on this re-signing. Trevor had a remarkably low BABIP this season – .231 (.169 vs. right-handed hitters!). Is it safe to say that’s due for a significant uptick next season – especially in hitter-friendly Miller Park?

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Oct 6, 2009 9:48 AM CDT reply actions

He's due to regress,

but he’ll still be a fine closer. Like Wreckard said below, Milwaukee shouldn’t be paying this much for a closer, but that’s a different issue. His ERA will rise, maybe even by a full point, but he should still be one of the better late inning relievers in the NL.
Regarding his BABIP, where’d you get your number from? Fangraphs has his BABIP at .240. His tRA was a brilliant 2.40, far better than his career rate, so again, he should give the Brewers another vintage Hoffman season.

Metal sharpens metal.

And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan

by dakoose on Oct 6, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I got that BABIP...

…from his Baseball Reference 2009 splits page. And let’s just hope he compiles that higher ERA largely against the Cubs next year (and other divisional opponents, of course)!

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Oct 6, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions

That's interesting.

I could understand a slight difference in babip for different websites, but a 9 point gap? That is strange.

Metal sharpens metal.

And this guy right here understands and knows what leadership is all about: The coach, the hall of famer......... Dick Butka! George Ryan

by dakoose on Oct 7, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions

They update at different times

by vivaelpujols on Oct 10, 2009 12:52 AM CDT up reply actions

Law of Diminishing Returns

will eventually come into play…

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Oct 6, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions

Hoffman had a good year.

But he will be 42 next week. That seems a lot to pay for the chance that, as daver noted above, his BABIP will stay as low as it was this year.

As a Cubs fan, I hope the Brewers regret this signing.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree with the three of you, but I was surprised he was as good as he was this year.

Still, they don’t have unlimited resources, and their starting pitching needs help.

This is probably a good thing for the NL Central.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 6, 2009 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

Yet another reason

why I am confident we only have to worry about St. Louis next year.

"Was you ever punched in the face five hundred times a night? It stings after a while." ~Rocky Balboa

by Goodie1969 on Oct 6, 2009 10:30 AM CDT reply actions

I don't think this is a good thing

Hoffman was successful and will be successful. Even if he regresses some, he still closes games for MIL.

I was hoping Kevin Gregg would make his way to MIL this off-season. THAT would be a good thing.

by socalbob on Oct 6, 2009 10:42 AM CDT reply actions

What a waste of money for a small market team.

Their payroll for the last two years was $80M – why on earth would a team that desperately needs starting pitching give 10% of their budget to a guy who will pitch 50-60 innings?

It makes no sense whatsoever.

by Wreckard on Oct 6, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions

I suppose that Melvin felt he was a good influence on the younger players

It’s still a lot of dough. This isn’t Gagne part 2, but it might be 1.5.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 6, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

It doesn't really even matter if he performs or not

Obviously I’d love to see him regress and start showing his age – but even if he performs as well as he did this year, he’ll still eat up enough of the budget that it will hamper their ability to bring in the starting pitching they so desperately need.

It’s just always odd to me to see a team like the Brewers or the Reds drop too much money on a closer. The market really overvalues them, and any small market team should be able to recognize this and realize that’s one luxury they can’t afford.

by Wreckard on Oct 6, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Once again...

… I find myself in complete agreement with you.

Dogs & cats, living together, etc.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions

That's a good point

He could go 30-for-30, but they really have one starting pitcher.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 6, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions

Well, think about the flip side of that situation

i.e. a team like the Brewers or Red with the bad versions of Gagne or Gregg as their closer. Think how demoralizing that would be for your staff to have defeat snatched from the jaws of victory time and time again. And in spectacular fashion, I might add as we know all too well…

I agree that it’s a lot of money to spend on a closer, given their market and payroll size. But unless they have a Marmol-like arm in the bullpen that would make sense to live through the growing pains of becoming a closer, I think it’s money well-spent just so you don’t have to worry about the back end of close games when you’re ahead.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 7, 2009 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions

You're creating a false dichotomy

The options aren’t “Someone really bad” or “Someone really good” for closers out there – there’s a lot of middle ground.

A guy like Mike Gonzalez, Joe Biemel, or John Grabow would make a solid if mediocre closer, and could be had for 1/3rd of what they’re going to pay Hoffman.

by Wreckard on Oct 7, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions

It's not a false dichotomy as much as it's just paying for peace-of-mind

Of course there’s a lot of middle ground – you could say that about any personnel decision made by a team, small-market or not.

I’m just saying that a team might like having the peace-of-mind knowing that if it gets to the 9th inning with the lead, chances are real good they’re going to win. And they’re willing to pay well, if not overpay, for that peace of mind.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 7, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions

That's a good point.

My only guess is he’s a fan/clubhouse favorite. In fact, someone mentioned on Twitter yesterday that he took a bunch of his teammates to the Packers-Viking game yesterday.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Oct 6, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions

Hoffman

He’s the best NL reliever of all time. I put him ahead of the Cubs’ and Cardinals’ Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith. However, I don’t think the Brewers should have resigned Hoffman for that kind of money, and the Brewers have more of a pressing need in the starting rotation.

"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 6, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions

I don't care...and it's a dumb move.

Might want to worry about some of your star players before you worry about signing a closer. The Brewers: Good for Third Place!

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Oct 6, 2009 12:06 PM CDT reply actions

I really think

they may look at dealing Prince this off-season for a #1 pitcher. I think Hardy is a goner too. What do you think thye may do?

Cameron may be gone too. I think the Brewers will have a completely different team in 2010.

by socalbob on Oct 6, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Speaking of Hardy....

… should the Cubs go after him? He had a down year after two good ones. He is only 27. Worth looking into?

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Maybe, but --

The Cubs would have to pay $1.50 on the dollar to get him within the division. Melvin’s told his buddy Hendry that regarding other players Hendry had asked about.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 6, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions

I wouldn't have a problem with the Cubs persuing Hardy.

But I wouldn’t plan on be alright with the Cubs handing him the SS job – make him earn it in Spring Training.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Oct 6, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra

by Al Yellon on Oct 6, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I've always liked Hardy...

…and would love for Hendry to figure out a way to steal him away. He’s a great defender and, if he can find his swing again, has the potential to hit for a lot more pop than Theriot. Getting him seems doubtful, though.

Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.

by daver on Oct 6, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes.

Hardy is a better offensive player.

He is a true shortstop.

His defense at SS is better.

"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks

by dtpollitt on Oct 6, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Is he scrappy, though.

I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 6, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

yep

I would say so—could be a nice stop gap until Castro is ready. He has some pop too. He’s a better player than his ’09 performance—sounds like he is already a Cub.

by socalbob on Oct 6, 2009 12:59 PM CDT reply actions