Lost in the Toronto Rumor: Olney's Suggested Swaps
This got lost in debunking the Toronto rumor (and also probably lost behind the subscriber wall), but Olney made some suggestions on who the Cubs might more realistically get: Carlos Silva, Derek Lowe, Gary Matthews Jr., Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, Oliver Perez, and Dontrelle Willis. How do you rank these guys?
over 2 years ago
DGU
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1 – Derek Lowe
2 – Aaron Rowand
3 – Gary Matthews Jr.
4 – Oliver Perez
5 – Dontrelle Willis
6 – Barry Zito
7 – Carlos Silva
Tamia Lynn Davis:
Born: August 18, 2008
Willis over Zito?
Both are bad but Willis has totally lost it, Zito can still be a nice 4-5 starter
by Aramis Ramirez on Nov 1, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
Agree with this. Zito had a solid year this year.
His contract is huge, but I’d assume we wouldn’t be assuming all of it.
I agree on #1 and #2
and then I think everyone after is a big step down. Lowe has the most value, I expect, and is maybe even flippable for something more useful.
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by DGU on Nov 1, 2009 8:58 PM CST up reply actions
Lowe had a bad year
and is owed 22 million more than Bradley. No one on that list is worth a trade for Bradley as you either take on a much more expensive contract or get a player of even less use. I would consider Willis only because you get rid of half the salary but that is it. I would rather keep Bradley and I am as convinced as others that this will not happen.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 1, 2009 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
Lowe had some bad luck.
He had a high BABIP and his 2009 FIP wasn’t that far from his 2007 FIP. That said, he also dropped his K rate, dropped his GB rate, and upped his walk rate. Now, that said, his 2009 looks a lot like his 2004 when you look at the K, BB, and HR rates. And Lowe bounced back from that.
Lowe has been so good for so long that I’d take a risk with Lowe a lot sooner than I’d dumpster dive for guys like Oliver Perez.
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We need pitchers?
Since when?
"The riches of the game are in the thrills, not the money." --Ernie Banks
Trading Bradley is like the draft -
take the best player and things will work itself out. I’d rather trade Bradley for Lowe and Wells for a young, solid CF than Bradley for GMJr.
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by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 5:45 AM CST up reply actions
He is not terrible
but you think he is good enough to spend 23 MORE million on ? The Cubs don’t have enough expensive long term contracts. Under NO circumstances should Bradley be exchanged for higher dollar contract. The Perez contract is roughly equal but I would rather keep Bradley.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 1, 2009 11:57 PM CST up reply actions
I can see that point.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 5:45 AM CST up reply actions
Also, Lowe is going to be 37 next year.
I’d rather have Rowand.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Another contract that will cost MORE money for a player
with a very questionable upside. For those of you who want to get rid of him at ANY cost, just find the team willing to eat the largest amount of the contract and some team will see enough value to pay something over league minimum. Trading him for a HIGHER cost contract is insane.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 2, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions
The other problem is...
… that the Giants have expressed no interest in Bradley.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
Silva, Matthews and Dontrelle are essentially worthless
You might as well just release Bradley if that’s what you’re getting back.
The rest of those guys have positive value; however, the money only lines up on Perez. Zito, Rowand, and Lowe are all owed more money than Bradley, so it would require either getting a ton of money back (in Zito’s case) or taking on additional payroll (in Rowand and Lowe’s cases).
If there was a way to lessen Lowe’s contract burden for 2010 (that is, balance it out, likely meaning Atl sends us money, although I guess maybe we could try pawning a contract off like Miles), I’d make that move. I have enough faith that Lowe can stick as a middle-end of the rotation pitcher and be around a 4 FIP through 2012. Certainly, that’s not great, and he’d likely be overpaid, but I’d be okay with that swap, particularly since we’ll be looking for another starter next offseason when Lilly likely leaves.
I don’t really care for anyone else on that list. Zito’s contract is too long (for example, if Lowe has a solid season, moving the final 2 years, while we’d have to eat some, wouldn’t be that hard). Perez is too hit or miss. Silva/Matthews/Dontrelle are junk right now. I guess I would have Rowand 2nd from that list, but I don’t really care for Aaron Rowand either.
by toonsterwu on Nov 2, 2009 12:19 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
What I like about Aaron Rowand
is that he fits a need for the Cubs – just at an exorbinant price. My preferred 2010 OF is Soriano in LF, Dome in RF, a LH CF, and someone getting 400 ABs or more spelling all of the others, someone who does everything Reed Johnson does, but also hits RHP – that’s Aaron Rowand.
Plus, if you add Rowand early in the offseason it gives you strength in negotiations for a player like Ryan Sweeney or Curtis Granderson or even Felix Pie.
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by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
Makes sense, though it's really hard to see Hendry eating crow and taking Pie back.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I think those are blackbirds.
19 I can see . . . guessing there are 5 more somewhere.
I'm singing, "GO CUBS GO! GO CUBS GO!" -- DrCrawdad on Jun 12, 2009 7:23 AM CDT
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! -- Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 2, 2009 9:42 PM CST up reply actions
I'm going to have to agree...
and recommend.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 2, 2009 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
Lowe and Rowand
are still serviceable however the money owed is not great. I still wouldn’t mind seeing Rowand in Chicago in a trade for Milton.
Looking at this list I have to laugh
at the Rosenthal comment about the shocking interest in Bradley. If all the interest involves the Cubs taking on a lot of salary commitment then I don’t call that shocking. Teams will be willing to take a gamble on Bradley if they get salary relief on bad contracts.
Rosenthanl reported something different than Oleny conjectures.
It remains to be seen whether Rosenthal is right or wrong – but Olney’s playing a different game.
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by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
Rowand ??????
Per above why in the world would you take on 13 Million MORE in salary to get rid of Bradley ? If you hate him that much
GIVE HIM AWAY but don’t add to the Cubs financial burden to do it. Straight up for Silva or Perez at least gives you a body ( though the Mets would never do Perez). I am in the don’t dump Milton for nothing dept myself but again at least
don’t make it worse.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
This definitely makes sense from a financial perspective...
…but getting Rowand will fill a positional need for the Cubs, strengthen the defense by putting Kosuke back in right field and, essentially, be a gamble that Rowand may give the team some decent offensive production playing most of his games in a more hitter-friendly park like Wrigley.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
And if I might add...
You could very well make Aaron Miles disappear inside of this transaction.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 2, 2009 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Thats the thing
Really the only way to get rid of Milton is to take on more money.
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
Not necessarily.
Just because Olney’s piece of conjecture is more recent than Rosenthal’s report doesn’t make it more right.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 2:13 PM CST up reply actions
Well let me ask you and everybody else this
Do you see a situation where we aren’t on the hook for at least the $21 owed to Milton?
Just say no to players named Aaron on the Cubs.
It depends on what you mean by "on the hook".
I would expect that we would have to pay that much to whoever we take back in a “bad contract” swap. But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
I don't understand what that means....
The Bradley contract is a sunk cost, and you’d expect that whatever the Cubs would take back would be at least equal to that amount.
Do I think that you could just give him away, and save the 21 million? Probably not. I’d expect that the Cubs would either take back a roughly equal contract, or at least equal in AAV for 2010, or eat about a third, and just walk away.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 2, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
I think there's a chance that we eat part of the contract
without taking a contract back.
I gave a scenario in my fanpost “Why Other Teams Should Want MB” that I thought made sense for the Marlins. If we eat roughly half of the contract, Milton Bradley is a huge bargain. Plus, with the 2010 salary being lower than the 2011 salary, the Cubs don’t have to pay as much in ’10 to make him manageable to any club that wants to take a shot on MB.
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by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 4:41 PM CST up reply actions
That makes no sense
The worst case scenario is the one where you release Bradley and eat all $21M, no more.
But that situation is exceedingly unlikely to occur.
Actually a much more expensive version of a Johnson/Fuld platoon
Fuld covers Rowand’s penchant for crashing into walls and fences.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 2, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Except that Aaron Rowand has been able to hit RHP on his career.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 2, 2009 2:15 PM CST up reply actions
Right, and that's something that a Johnson/Fuld platoon doesn't really give us
The two players are more or less redundant. If we could find one more outfielder who could hit RHP (and hopefully be able to play center) we would be able to get by with an OF consisting of Soriano, Dome, Johnson, Fuld, and the new player. Rowand, while very expensive, could fit that bill.
Thanks but I think we can carry an extra body for the extra 13 million.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
Me either Jim
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 2, 2009 8:32 PM CST up reply actions
I'm missing your point
I think we do have room for both Johnson and Fuld (especially given how often Dome should be spelled against lefties) but we need another CF who can hit lefties IMO. Rowand is obviously very expensive, but I’m working under the assumption we’re not gonna get anything cheap in exchange for Bradley.
My mistake
I meant to say here that we needed another CF who could hit righties. That probably explains the two comments below?
Not sure I'd call them redundant.
Fuld’s career OPS vs. LHP is better than his career OPS vs. RHP, but the sample size is pretty tiny – 31 PAs vs. lefties. And he’s put up an impressive .409 OBP vs. RHP in his career thus far.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Wow
Sam’s minor league splits bear out that he can hit LHP; he may have more of a use than I thought.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
Except, Reed is the same way
.841 career OPS against LHP, .707 against RHP. In my ideal world, Fuld would be in CF and Reed would be in RF against lefties, and Dome would be in RF with the not-yet-acquired mystery left-handed OF playing center.
I do definitely agree that Fuld has earned a chance to stay with the team next year, and I even support him starting 1/3 or so of the games, mostly against LHP. If it would be possible to pick up a flawed (ie. LH platoon partner) CF with good defensive skills, I would feel pretty good about our OF next year, despite the scrappiness.
And now I'm officially going to be talking to myself
I checked out DGU’s minor league splits page and saw that Fuld has a career minor league OPS of .788 against RHP and .743 against LHP. Either he’s found a way to flipflop those skills since being called up to the majors, or the sample sizes are too small for us to see this yet.
Where does that leave my argument? I’m not sure. Maybe Reed and Fuld can split CF and give us solid everyday defense, with us only needing to find a platoon partner for Dome in right? That would allow us to either trade Bradley and cash for nothing, or to go for some sort of pitching, rather than going for a Rowand type. Thoughts?
Well, under my on-the-cheap, quick 'n easy strategy...
…you platoon Fuld and RJ in center and Kosuke and Jeff Baker in right. (The Cubs have plenty of fill-in options at second base.) This would give the team the freedom to simply release Milton (which probably won’t happen) or perhaps trade him for a pitcher. Rowand would be a decent gamble if the money could be balanced out.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I'm now up for Fuld being the 4th OF extraordinaire
getting 400 PAs, spelling all the other OFs. The really nice thing about Fuld is that he gives Lou a lefty to play v. leftys and we know how important that is to Lou. Fuld could be like Theriot circa 2007, only useful.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2009 4:31 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder how Jim Hendry feels about this.
I know he loves Reed Johnson – he’s been very vocal about that. If he (and Lou) hold Fuld in similiar esteem, maybe they’d be willing to roll with such an arrangement.
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
Check the splits from the last two years, too.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions
Aaron Rowand is overrated and horrendously overpaid
I’d rather swallow Bradley’s remaining $20 million whole as opposed to assuming an even nastier contract situation.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
I agree
but that doesn’t mean he couldn’t be useful to us.
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2009 8:56 PM CST up reply actions
He makes $12 million guaranteed per season for the next three years
Sorry, but on a Cub roster already chocked full of bad big money investments we need Aaron Rowand like a hole in the head. Oh how I wish the Ricketts would simply cut to the chase and fire Jim Hendry NOW. At the very least they need to prohibit him from any forays into free agency yet again AND approve any trade concepts.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
Well, you know where I stand on firing a GM who has better than average success at getting winning teams to the playoffs.
To the point on Rowand – obviously we can’t afford to acquire Rowand at full price and pay all of MB. But if it’s a choice between – say – eating 18 M of Bradley and getting a player like David DeJesus or eating none of Bradley’’s contract, and, in fact, SF eating 9 M or so of Rowand – then are you really saying you’d rather have the lesser player?
Inspector #23 certifies that the above post is sarcasm free, most certainly not what she said, and chock full of intangibles, although regressing to the intangible mean, as you'd expect.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2009 7:45 AM CST up reply actions
Would you be comfortable with a Fuld/Johnson platoon in centerfield?
Catch my act on Twitter as @dat_cubfan_dave.
I'd take Rowand
Pick up Rowand and dump Bradley however you can and just cut your losses and move on. Bradley is STILL gonna keep hurting this team, throughout the entire winter, until he’s gotten rid of. If the Cubs keep trying to find the “perfect” solution to getting rid of him, by the time they figure out there isn’t one, all the key players will be in someone else’s dugout. I watch this year’s World Series and just burn with envy. I want the Cubs in the Series…and sooner than later…ummm…please?
If this offseason is all about dumping Bradley then we might as well skip the 2010 season
This Cub team has profound issues to address if it hopes to be a semi-serious contender in 2010. Obsession over the next address of Milton Bradley is very odd endeavor.
This team has HOLES people. Big HOLES.
"Cubs will win 79 to 83 games." BLou (7/21/09)
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